Inflation

NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY

Faculty of Mathematical Economics

REPORT ON MONETARY AND FINANCIAL THEORY

Topic: Inflation

Hoàng Quốc Thiện 11230495

Trần Anh Đức 11230437
Hoàng Việt Anh 11230416
Nguyễn Đình Hưng 11230447
Advisor: PhD. Nguyễn Thị Hoài Phương

Ha Noi, November 2024

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TABLE OF CONTENT
I. Introduction................................................................................................................. 3
II. Inflation..................................................................................................................... 4
1.Definition................................................................................................................. 4
2.How to calculate inflation rate....................................................................................... 4
3.Types of inflation........................................................................................................ 4
3.1 Demand-Pull Effect:.............................................................................................. 4
3.2 Cost-Push Effect:.................................................................................................. 5
3.3 Built-In Inflation:.................................................................................................. 6
3.4 Hyperinflation...................................................................................................... 7
III. Cases of inflation........................................................................................................ 8
1. Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe......................................................................................... 8
1.1. Causes.............................................................................................................. 9
1.2. Course............................................................................................................ 10
1.3. Effect.............................................................................................................. 10
1.4. Solution........................................................................................................... 12
1.5. Now................................................................................................................ 13
2. Hyperinflation in Germany......................................................................................... 13
2.1. Causes............................................................................................................ 13
2.2. Course............................................................................................................ 15
2.3. Effects............................................................................................................. 16
2.4. Solution........................................................................................................... 17
2.5. Conclusion....................................................................................................... 19
IV. Reference............................................................................................................... 21

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I. Introduction
After the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has continued to deteriorate,
with key economic indicators worldwide showing sharp declines and no signs of
recovery. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been rising steadily, signaling
a significant surge in inflation. Inflation is the gradual loss of purchasing power, reflected
by the widespread increase in prices of goods and services over time. The inflation rate is
calculated as the average price increase of a selected basket of goods and services over a
year. High inflation means prices are rising quickly, while low inflation means prices are
increasing more slowly.

This situation raises concerns, as history has seen many countries experience high
inflation—even hyperinflation—that led to currency devaluation and economic collapse.
In response to rising inflation, governments worldwide have introduced measures to curb
inflation growth, with many achieving stable inflation rates.

In this article, we will explore the current state of inflation, delve into cases of
hyperinflation, examine where and how hyperinflation has occurred, and discuss potential
solutions.

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II. Inflation
1.Definition
Inflation is a gradual loss of purchasing power that is reflected in a broad rise in
prices for goods and services over time.
High inflation means that prices are increasing quickly, while low inflation means
that prices are growing more slowly. Inflation can be contrasted with deflation, which
occurs when prices decline and purchasing power increases.

2.How to calculate inflation rate

CPI is the normal tool to measure Inflation rate and formula to measure inflation
rate depends on CPI

The inflation rate is calculated based on the consumer price index of each year.
Therefore, if the price of next year's basket of goods is higher than the previous year, the
inflation rate will be higher. CPI and inflation are the most typical example of a positive
relationship. Price increases mean the consumer price index increases. At the same time,
money also loses some of its value. Therefore, inflation also increases.

3.Types of inflation
Inflation is categorized based on its causes. In general, inflation is triggered by an
uncontrolled increase in the supply of money base. However, there are much deeper
reasons making inflation rate rise which are shown below.

3.1 Demand-Pull Effect:

3.1.1. Definition and causes
Demand-pull inflation occurs when demand for goods and services exceeds
supply in the economy. While demand increases, the supply of goods and services
available for purchase may remain the same or drop. Demand-pull inflation causes
upward pressure on prices due to shortages in supply, a condition that economists
describe as too many dollars chasing too few goods. An increase in aggregate demand
can also lead to this type of inflation.

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Figure 1: Diagram illustrates demand-pull inflation

3.1.2: Causes of demand-pull effect

When the economy grows and consumer confidence rises, people tend to spend
more, increasing demand and pushing prices up. A surge in export demand can also affect
inflation by causing an undervaluation of currencies, making imports more expensive.
Additionally, government spending can fuel inflation by injecting more money into the
economy, raising overall demand. Finally, businesses may raise prices if they expect
future inflation, creating a cycle where anticipated inflation leads to actual increases in
prices. Together, these elements contribute to upward pressure on prices in the economy.

3.2 Cost-Push Effect:

Cost-push inflation is a result of the increase in prices working through the
production process inputs. When additions to the supply of money and credit are
channeled into a commodity or other asset markets, costs for all kinds of intermediate
goods rise. This is especially evident when there’s a negative economic shock to the
supply of key commodities.

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These developments lead to higher costs for the finished product or service and
work their way into rising consumer prices. For instance, when the money supply is
expanded, it creates a speculative boom in oil prices. This means that the cost of energy
can rise and contribute to rising consumer prices, which is reflected in various measures
of inflation.

Figure 2: Diagram illustrates cost-push inflation

3.3 Built-In Inflation:

3.3.1. When does it occur
Built-in inflation, also known as wage-price inflation, is a type of inflation
that arises from the interplay between wages and prices. It occurs when employees
demand higher wages to keep up with rising living costs, leading businesses to

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increase prices to cover higher production costs. This cycle continues, creating self-
sustaining inflationary pressure within the economy. The wage-price spiral thus
ensures that inflation persists over time, often making it challenging for
policymakers to achieve long-term price stability

3.3.2. Causes
Built-in inflation is a cyclical process in which rising wages and production
costs continually drive-up prices. It begins when workers, facing a higher cost of
living, demand wage increases to sustain their purchasing power. Employers, under
pressure to retain skilled labor, often agree to raise wages, but this creates higher
production costs for businesses. To cover these increased expenses, companies pass
the costs onto consumers by raising prices on goods and services. As prices rise,
workers experience a further increase in the cost of living, which leads them to
demand even higher wages, perpetuating the cycle. This continuous interaction
between rising wages, higher production costs, and increasing prices creates an
ongoing loop that can be challenging to break, embedding inflation into the
economy.
Beside three types of inflation, we have many different types of inflation as:
Stagflation, hyperinflation, ...

3.4 Hyperinflation
3.4.1. When does it occur
Hyperinflation is a term that describes and measures rapid, excessive, and out-of-
control general price increases that result in extreme inflation. Inflation measures the pace
of rising prices for goods and services in an economy. Hyperinflation indicates
uncontrollable price increases over a defined period, typically measuring more than 50%
per month

Hyperinflation is a rare event for developed economies, but it's occurred many
times throughout history in countries such as China, Germany, Russia, Hungary, and
Georgia.

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3.4.2. Causes
Hyperinflation commonly occurs when there is a significant rise in money supply
that is not supported by economic growth. The increase in money supply is often caused
by government printing and injecting more money into the domestic economy or to cover
budget deficits. When more money is put into circulation, the real value of the currency
decreases and prices rise.

3.4.3. Effects of hyperinflation

Hyperinflation quickly devalues the local currency in foreign exchange markets as
the relative value in comparison to other currencies drops. This situation will drive
holders of the domestic currency to minimize their holdings and switch to more stable
foreign currencies.

To avoid paying higher prices tomorrow due to hyperinflation, individuals

typically begin investing in durable goods such as equipment, machinery, jewelry, etc. In
situations of prolonged hyperinflation, individuals will begin to accumulate perishable
goods.

However, that practice causes a vicious cycle – as prices rise, people accumulate
more goods, in turn creating higher demand for goods and further increasing prices. If
hyperinflation continues unabated, it nearly always causes a major economic collapse.

Severe hyperinflation can cause the domestic economy to switch to a barter

economy, with significant repercussions to business confidence. It can also destroy the
financial system as banks become unwilling to lend money.

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III. Cases of inflation

There are many cases of hyperinflation, but today we will present two classic
cases of hyperinflation that some of you may have heard of: the case of hyperinflation in
Germany from 1921 to 1923, and hyperinflation in Zimbabwe from 2007 to 2009. There
are many causes of hyperinflation, but some common ones include unstable monetary
policies coupled with political instability, as seen in Zimbabwe, or the impact of war, as
in Germany.

1. Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe
Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was inevitable. After a series of poor policies and
disastrous monetary decisions, Zimbabwe officially fell into hyperinflation in March
2007, reaching its peak in 2009.

Zimbabwe's pre-hyperinflation period demonstrated a thriving agricultural sector

as a cornerstone of its economy. With significant contributions from wheat and tobacco
production and key exports like gold, cotton, and sugar, the nation established trade
relationships with various global partners.

1.1. Causes
Alongside many policy mistakes, the "land reform policy" is perhaps the worst.
First, the main cause of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe from 1997 to 2008 was the “Land
Reform Program.” During the colonial period in Zimbabwe and in the early years of
independence, Zimbabwe experienced large-scale agricultural exports and economic
success. After gaining independence, most of the country's arable land remained in the
hands of white landowners. However, throughout the 1990s, President Robert Mugabe’s
government began to transfer ownership. The Zimbabwean government redistributed
farmland from existing white farmers to black farmers. These new farmers were not only
unable to manage the agricultural model effectively but also lacked the knowledge to
apply technology to the farms. Consequently, the Land Reform Program led to a decline
in agricultural output, particularly tobacco, which accounted for one-third of Zimbabwe's
foreign exchange earnings. (3) In addition, food production deteriorated severely,
reaching its lowest in 2008 with a harvest of only 500,000 tons
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In the early 1980s, Zimbabwe saw notable economic growth. However, by the
1990s, as President Robert Mugabe’s (Zimbabwe's leader since 1980) political influence
waned, his administration was accused of deepening corruption and using it to hold onto
power. Mugabe not only failed to address corruption decisively but was also reportedly
involved in leading a "mafia-like" network, where his government relied heavily on
favoritism and patronage. This weak, chaotic governance led to a severe decline in public
trust, setting the stage for a catastrophic economic event: hyperinflation.

Due to the decline in output, there were shortages of goods, which pushes prices
up. Nominal demand was rising because people had more paper money. This
combination of more money chasing fewer goods caused very rapid rises in price. When
there is a shortage – prices rise. Combined with printing more money and this shortage of
actual goods, prices rose rapidly.

1.2. Course
In 2008, Zimbabwe had the second highest incidence of hyperinflation on record.
The estimated inflation rate for Nov 2008 was 79,600,000,000%. That is effectively a
daily inflation rate of 98.0. Roughly every day, prices would double. It was also a time of
real hardship and poverty, with an unemployment rate of close to 80% and a virtual
breakdown in normal economic activity. The hyper-inflation was caused by printing
money in response to a series of economic shocks.

In hyperinflation, the prices of goods and services in Zimbabwe reached record

highs when compared to currency values. The soaring prices are the clearest
manifestation of inflation, particularly evident in several types of goods as follows.

1.3. Effect
The effects of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and its economy have been numerous
and severe. The country is one of the poorest in the world, with little opportunity for
improvement for its citizens.

 Weak Currency

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The Zimbabwean Dollar is one of the weakest in the world, which has caused
foreign goods to become incredibly expensive. Considering they are needed in most
sectors, many simply not afford them. This also means that Zimbabwe is not a major
player in any game on the international stage and is forced to take deals from foreign
countries out of necessity, whether they are good or bad.

 Lack of Buying Power

The weakened currency has also led to a complete lack of buying power. Everyday
necessities such as bread and milk cost an extraordinary amount of money, with many
citizens being forced to make do with very little. The lack of infrastructure and
employment also means many Zimbabweans aren’t earning any money at all, which
means there isn’t enough money going back into the economy to strengthen it.

 Little to No Manufacturing & Production

The economic reforms put in place by Robert Mugabe crashed many, if not all, of
the manufacturing and production sectors in Zimbabwe. Food production and farming
were a staple of the country until its collapse.Because of this, the export sector in
Zimbabwe is almost non-existent. The country relies heavily on foreign goods and
services, whether it be oil from Europe, electricity from South Africa, and food from
wherever they can get it. Manufactured and produced goods are lacking as the backbone
of most economies that would allow them to trade with other countries

 International Volatility

Because of this reliance on foreign goods, Zimbabwe is heavily affected by price

volatility and shortages of goods. Whereas other countries can make do and have the
money to work around shortages, Zimbabwe doesn’t have the same options.

When you combine international shortages with no internal production, you end
up with sky-high prices that regular citizens can’t afford.

 Unemployment:

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Figure 3: Figure shows unemployment in Zimbabwe’s inflation

The unemployment rate in Zimbabwe during the period of hyperinflation was

around 5-6%.

Figure 3: Figure shows unemployment in Zimbabwe’s inflation

1.4. Solution
 Demonetization

In June 2015, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe said it would begin a process to
"demonetize" (i.e., to officially value a fiat currency at zero). The plan was to have
completed the switch to the US dollar by the end of September 2015. In December 2015,
Patrick Chinamasa, the Zimbabwe Minister of Finance, said they would make the
Chinese yuan their main reserve currency and legal tender after China cancelled US$40
million in debts. However, this was denied by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in January
2016. In June 2016, nine currencies were legal tender in Zimbabwe, but it was estimated
90% of transactions were in US dollars and 5% in Rand.

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In April 2023, the government announced the introduction of digital currencies

backed by gold reserves. The digital money will be allowed to be transferred for people
and business as a form of payment via e-gold wallets or e-gold cards.(9)

 Dollarization:

In 2008, Zimbabwe faced a record-breaking hyperinflation rate of 23,100,000%,

which led to a severe economic crisis and an 80% business failure rate. To control the
situation, Zimbabwe implemented full dollarization starting in 2009, mainly using the US
dollar for transactions. This helped stabilize the economy quickly, minimize inflation,
and restore market confidence. The Zimbabwean government used USD for most trade
and budget transactions, resulting in a shortage of USD coins. The US Federal Reserve
(FED) had to supply additional coins to meet demand.

-> This is the best solution

1.5. Now
Zimbabwe's economy saw strong growth in 2022 (6.1%) and 2023 (5.3%), fueled
by agriculture, mining, and remittance-driven services. However, GDP growth is
projected to slow to 2% in 2024, with challenges from an El Niño-induced drought,
reduced mining prices, and ongoing macroeconomic instability. Power shortages are
further disrupting industrial and agricultural productivity, adding pressure to an already
volatile currency environment.

On the fiscal side, rising debt servicing costs from the Treasury’s assumption of
central bank debt and increased 2023 capital expenditures have intensified budgetary
strains, compounded by drought-related relief efforts and decreased tax revenues. Fiscal
discipline remains essential for stability.

Looking forward, economic growth is expected to recover to 6% in 2025, driven

by reduced drought impacts and increased mining and manufacturing output. With
projected improvements in lithium and gold production, Zimbabwe’s current account is
likely to remain positive, supporting a more stable medium-term economic outlook.

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2. Hyperinflation in Germany
2.1. Causes
In preparation for the World War I, to fund its war effort, the Imperial German
government incurred a 150-billion-mark debt. Once the war was over, the new German
government – commonly referred to as the “Weimar” government for the capital it chose
– continued the policy of excessive printing in a move to manipulate its currency to help
the struggling economy. Weimar economists theorized that devaluing their currency
would help Germany’s industrial sector rebuild because the prices of its exports would be
more attractive to foreign investors. Foreign investors could simply buy more German
exports with their own currency, which was worth much more than the Reichsmark. The
economists were correct in that German exports temporarily increased, but they failed to
consider the plethora of other factors that were driving the inflationary cycle.

As one of the “losers” in World War I, Germany was forced to pay exorbitant
reparations to the “winners,” primarily France and Belgium, for the damage done to those
countries. The reparations payments, which were putative more than anything, resulted in
an adverse balance of payments in Germany. The Weimar government, as well as
German corporations, had difficulties obtaining credit abroad to fund industries that could
inject money into the economy needed to make the payments, which combined with a
loss of territory under the Treaty of Versailles, meant that Germany needed to import
more raw materials to keep its industry going. The result was a further devaluation of the
Reichsmark. As with the domestic debts it incurred from the war, the German
government saw devaluation of the currency as a viable option, but the reality was that it
gave itself little room for economic maneuvering.

In order to rectify the situation, the government decided to print more money,
which in turn devalued the already plummeting Reichsmark. The inability to provide for
basic social services with non-inflated currency stemmed from the Weimar government’s
inability to grasp the scope of the situation. Officials and economists in the Weimar
government viewed Germany’s economic woes through the lens of the nineteenth century
instead of seeing it as it really was – an economic process taking place within a complex
system that was integrated with the economies of the other industrialized nations.

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The final nail in the German economy’s coffin of the early 1920s was two
unforeseen events that took place both inside and outside of Germany’s borders. The first
event was the assassination of German foreign minister Walther Rathenau in June 1922.
The assassination caused political panic in the increasingly unstable Germany and set off
a speculation crisis that saw the Reichsmark plunge in value on world currency markets.
Rathenau’s assassination was followed by the occupation of the Ruhr Valley by French
and Belgian military forces in January 1923. The French and Belgian governments hoped
that by occupying the mineral and industrially rich Ruhr Valley they could force the
Germans to make reparations payments; but the occupation had the opposite effect. The
occupation of the Ruhr further crippled industrial output, which in turn devalued the
German currency even more. By November 1923, the Reichsmark was worth only one-
trillionth of its pre-World War I value.

2.2. Course
In January 1919 one US Dollar could buy 8.9 German marks. In January 1922 one
US Dollar could purchase 191.8 German marks. What does this mean?

This means that the buying power of the German mark (Germany’s currency) has
dropped at an incredible rate. Something that cost one US dollar in 1919 would have cost
8.9 German marks. 3 years later it costs 191.8 German marks, but still is worth one US
Dollar. This shows that the value of the German currency has dropped dramatically

In January 1923, a dollar cost 17,000 marks. Just three months later, in April, that
figure reached 24,000. The numbers skyrocketed each month, reaching 353,000 in July,
4.6 million in August, 98.9 million in September, 25.3 billion in October and 2.2 trillion
in November. The sorry climax arrived in December, when the exchange rate topped out
at 4.2 trillion marks to the dollar.

Victor Klemperer, a German scholar and faithful diarist, saw his country
“collapsing in an eerie, step-by-step manner. … How long will we still have something to
eat? Where will we next have to tighten our belts?” Meat would soon reach 3 billion
marks per pound. Butter was twice that sum. A pound of potatoes and a glass of beer,
staples of the German diet, came in at 50 million and 150 million marks, respectively. It

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was best just to forget about grains, their importation having all but ceased. A pound of
rye bread cost more than 100 billion marks by November 1923.

Figure 4: Inflation rate in Germany

2.3. Effects
Tensions built. Eventually, crowds resorted to looting and rioting. “Looting is
happening even in small towns, and some of the damages … [are] off the charts,” says
Molly Loberg, a historian at California Polytechnic State University. In one prolonged,
notorious instance of the breakdown of order, police arrested 571 people for looting
shops in Berlin between November 3 and 7.

The greatest impact of the hyperinflation of 1923 may be the hardest to measure
how it turned Germans against each other, breeding the mistrust and animosity that made
Nazism seem like such a good idea to so many people. Rising prices brought “hate,
desperation and need,” Kroner noted as he observed long lines of customers waiting to
buy food. As the butter ran out, the crowd’s patience broke: “And then comes the

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umbrella handle … crashing through the glass cover on the cream cheese. And the cop
standing watch outside pulls a sobbing woman from the store. And there is an uproar.
And charges are filed.”

The chaos even spread to the countryside, where gangs of heavily armed men and
teenagers stormed barns for livestock and raided fields for produce. Gunfights ensued.
These farmyard melees mapped onto a mounting conflict between producers and
consumers as prices rose and shortages deepened. Producers simply couldn’t afford to
accept the amounts that consumers were able to pay.

Back in the cities, starvation loomed by fall 1923. Other scourges had already
arrived. Tuberculosis deaths were increasing as an indirect result of malnutrition, and
children now weighed less and grew less, statisticians soon discovered.

Cities themselves began to look and sound different, says Loberg. Shops restricted
their hours and covered their windows with iron shades. Desperate people with goods to
barter took to the streets as hawkers and shouted for attention. Out-of-work singers and
violinists performed on the sidewalks for donations. Organ grinders cranked the same
tunes ad nauseam and stopped only when paid to do so.

The crisis dragged much of the middle class into the working class, redistributing
wealth and upending the social hierarchy. People on fixed incomes like pensions fared
worst and had to sell their belongings for food. When they ran out of possessions, they
went hungry in empty apartments. Many others lost their jobs as employers ran out of
cash. Almost everyone lucky enough to work saw their real compensation dwindle.

The last stages of hyperinflation brought the most misery, as the government cut
costs by laying off much of its own workforce, slashing the salaries of the rest and ending
welfare programs for some of Germany’s poorest citizens. The chancellor and his
ministers, meanwhile, cast about in the dark for assistance from Germany’s former
enemies in the West, especially the United States. American manufacturers and
merchants still depended on German markets, after all, and they wanted to avoid the
destruction of the German economy, the world’s second largest.

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2.4. Solution
Although Germany’s bout with hyperinflation was a gradual process and took a
while to peak, it ended rather quickly. After numerous failed attempts to alleviate the
process, the Weimar government introduced a new currency known as the Rentenmark in
1923. Unlike the Reichsmark, which was not backed by gold or any other tangible asset,
the Rentenmark was back by real estate. When the Rentenmark was first introduced in
October 1923, one bill was worth an astonishing one trillion Reichsmarks! Although the
Weimar government was able to effectively end the hyperinflation by the end of the year,
the damage had already been done to the German economy, political system, and greater
society.

Among the many different groups who suffered due to hyperinflation and never
were really able to get back on their feet, were members of the German middle class.
Middle-class workers and small business owners were especially hit hard when they saw
their savings evaporate overnight. Many middle-class retirees found themselves back at
work and many others had to rely on the goodwill of friends and family just to make ends
meet. All of this resulted in a loss of confidence in the Weimar government, which was
further exposed as being weak and ineffective when Germany had a brief economic
Depression in 1925-26. Despite the hardships that hyperinflation caused in Germany,
there were some who were able to profit from it.

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Figure 5: Exchange rate between reichsmark and rentenmark

2.5. Conclusion
The period after World War I was an extremely critical juncture in world history
where the stage was set for World War II. Among the most important factors that led to
World War II, albeit indirectly, was the hyperinflationary cycle Germany experienced
from 1921 through 1923. During that period, the Weimar government watched as prices
soared over 1000% and sat helplessly as its currency essentially lost all of its value. The
factors that contributed to that short but devastating cycle can be attributed to excessive
printing of currency, the inability to pay off wartime debts and reparations, and a couple
of major political events. Although the Weimar government was eventually able to quell

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the hyperinflationary cycle, the German people lost confidence in the government and so
began looking elsewhere for political answers.

Conclusion

The investigation into the phenomenon of inflation, particularly the extreme cases
of hyperinflation experienced historically, highlights the profound impact monetary
policies can have on economic stability and social order. Throughout this discussion,
we’ve seen how hyperinflation can decimate the purchasing power of currency, disrupt
markets, and cause widespread economic and social turmoil. In cases like Zimbabwe and
Germany, hyperinflation not only undermined the value of money but also eroded public
trust in financial institutions and governments. These examples demonstrate that while
hyperinflation is a rare event, its onset is rapid and its consequences severe, often
catalyzing significant political and economic changes. Zimbabwe’s struggle with
hyperinflation led to drastic measures such as demonetization and dollarization,
ultimately seeking stability through the adoption of foreign currencies. Germany’s ordeal
in the early 20th century ended with a new currency backed by tangible assets, which
restored monetary stability but left deep socio-economic scars. The lessons from these
historical examples are clear: Effective monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and political
stability are crucial in preventing inflation from spiraling out of control. Moreover, the
international community’s role in providing aid and fostering economic cooperation is
vital in supporting nations struggling with or at risk of hyperinflation. As the global
economy continues to face challenges such as those posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, it
is more important than ever for economic policies to be proactive, transparent, and
inclusive. Ensuring that monetary expansion is carefully matched with economic growth
prospects and is not merely a tool for fiscal relief is essential in maintaining economic
stability

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of Versailles - Reparations, Military, Limitations | Britannica
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