COLLEGE OF NATURAL SCIENCE

DEP’T OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY

Determination of Rainfall Analysis, Rainfall
Pattern, Trend, Annual and Seasonal Forecasting
(Case Study: SNNP)

Group Assignment #2
Prepared by: Group
Name ID
1.Ayana Garoma ...............................................RNS/169/07
2.Bonsa Daba .....................................................RNS/256/07
3.Dawud Hussein ...............................................RNS/308/07
4.Mercury W/yes ...............................................RNS/337/06
5.Tadesse Areda ................................................RNS/927/07
6.Tariku Abityihun ...........................................RNS/942/07

SUBMITTED TO: Manyazewal.G

CHAPTER ONE
1.INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background of study area
Rainfall is an essential climatic factor that influences agricultural production in the tropics in
general, particularly in Ethiopia. The main economy of the country is highly dependent on
agricultural activities this agriculture also dependent on the seasonal and annual rainfall
distribution and amount. The low rainfall distributions in some years have resulted in crop failure,
which in turn brought food shortage and famine; despite the crucial role the variability of rainfall
playing in agricultural water management and crop production.
Rainfall is a scarce and an important hydrological variable in dry land areas. The need for water
in these areas increases daily due to population growth, economic developments, urbanization, and
consequently, water management using all the available resources is becoming increasing crucial.
In order to develop an effective management strategy, it is paramount to understand and assess the
impact of this resource on the ecosystem-team. The study and understanding of climate, variation
of rainfall in space, time and amounts, and their attendant effects on the ecosystem is vital. Plant
productivity in these regions is primarily limited by the availability of adequate water.
Rain fall analysis is a series analysis which determines the distribution of rain fall patterns by using
(frequency rain fall analysis). This is a study of spatial characteristics of rainfall seasonality
components.

Rainfall pattern Precipitation - rain, snow, sleet and hail - is associated with areas of rising air and
low pressure. When air rises it cools, and the moisture it contains condenses out as clouds, which
eventually produce precipitation. In regions of high pressure, air is descending, the atmosphere is
stable, the skies are usually clear, and precipitation is rare.

Seasonality forecasting: -The forecasting process proceeds as follows:

(i) First the data are seasonally adjusted;

(ii) Then forecasts are generated for the seasonally adjusted data via linear exponential
smoothing; and
(iii) Finally, the seasonally adjusted forecasts are "re-personalized" to obtain forecasts for
the original series.
1.2. Study area
South Nation Nationalities and People state is found in the southern part of the country, Ethiop
The Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's Region (SNNPR) is located in the Southern and
southwestern part of Ethiopia. Astronomically, it is roughly lies between 40.43 – 80.58 north,
latitude and 340.88- 39 0.14 east, longitude. It is bordered with Kenya in south, the South Sudan in
southwest Gambella region in northwest and surrounded by Oromia region in northwest, north and
east directions.
The total area of the region is estimated to be 109,015 Sq. Km which is shares 10% of the country
and the population size is 16,825,392 accounting nearly (in 2003E.C.) 20% of the total population
of the country. The average population density of the region became 154 persons per sq.k.m, which
makes the region one of the most populous parts of the country.

Fig
1. SNNPR map

1.3. Objective

 Determination of Rain fall analysis, rainfall pattern and seasonal forecasting for a given
study area.
1.3.1. Main objective

 The main objectives of this report is to analyze the monthly and annually rainfall patterns
and trends over Arba Minch, Chencha, Dinke, Humbo and Morka

1.3.2. Specific objective

 To assess the rainfall trends over selected stations based on the rainfall data

 To evaluate mono modality and bimodality of station based on the given data
1.4. Significance of the study

The significant of the report is to show the monthly and annually rainfall characterization over the
selected station. Now days the monthly and annual rainfall status is highly variable from year to
year and from place to place. So, knowing the rainfall situation is very crucial for agricultural
activities and related issues. Hence this information is very vital for both Governmental and non-
governmental institutions for research and decision making program purposes.

1.5. Scope of the study

The scope of this report is to give a clear graphical of monthly and annually rainfall climatology
over the study areas. And in order to analyze the rainfall climatology.
CHAPTER N TWO

2.MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY

2.1.MATERIALS

Materials that used to our data analysis

 Microsoft Excel Software

 Rainbow Software
Microsoft Excel software

That allows users to organize, format, and calculate data with formulas using a spreadsheet system
broken up by rows and columns. Microsoft Excel usually comes bundled with Microsoft Office
and is compatible with other applications offered in the suite of products.

Rainbow software

A software package for hydro meteorological frequency analysis and testing the homogeneity of
historical data sets.
2.2. Methodology
2.2.1. Data collection

The monthly rainfall data from five meteorological stations have been taken from meteorology
and hydrology department Instructors, for the last 10 years starting from 1999-2008 for the
following station; Arba Minch, Chencha, Dinke, Humbo and Morka.

Station name Year of recording Data type

Arba Minch 1999-2008 Rainfall
Chencha 1999-2008 Rainfall
Dinke 1999-2008 Rainfall
Humbo 1999-2008 Rainfall
Morka 1999-2008 Rainfall
2.2.2. Analysis of missing rainfall data

 Estimation of Missing Precipitation Data

 Consistency of Precipitation Data or Double Mass Index

2.2.2.1. Method for estimation of missing rainfall data

Data for the period of missing rainfall data could be filled using estimation technique. The length
of period up to which the data could be filled is dependent on individual judgment. Generally,
rainfall for the missing period is estimated either by using the normal ratio method or the distance
power method. To fill missing rainfall data, we use the following method.

1.Arithmetic mean method

2.Norml ratio method

3. Inverse distance

1.Arithmetic mean method

If the normal annual precipitations at surrounding gauges are within the range of 10% of the normal
annual precipitation at station X, then the Arithmetic procedure could be adopted to estimate the
missing observation of station X (Chow et al, 1988). This assumes equal weights from all nearby
rain gauge stations and uses the arithmetic mean of precipitation records of them as estimate (Tab
iOS & Salas, 1985).

2.Normal ratio method

In the normal ratio method, the rainfall PA at station A is estimated as a function of the normal
monthly or annual rainfall of the station under question and those of the neighboring stations for
the period of missing data at the station under question.

Where - Pi is the rainfall at surrounding stations

- NRA is the normal monthly or seasonal rainfall at station A
- NRi is the normal monthly or seasonal rainfall at station I
- n is the number of surrounding stations whose data are used for estimation
3.Inverse distance method
In this method, weights for each sample are inversely proportionate to its distance from the point
being estimated (Lam, 1983).

Where, Px = estimate of rainfall for the ungauged station

Pi = rainfall values of rain gauges used for estimation
di = distance from each location the point being estimated
N = No. of surrounding stations
2.3. Double mass curve
Double mass curve is a simple, visual and practical method, and it is widely used in the study of
the consistency and long-term trend test of hydro-meteorological data.is used to check the
consistency of a rain gauge record. This method was first used to analyze the consistency of
precipitation data. The theory of the double-mass curve is based on the fact that a plot of the two
cumulative quantities during the same period exhibits a straight line so long as the proportionality
between the two remains unchanged, and the slope of the line represents the proportionality. This
method can smooth a time series and suppress random elements in the series, and thus show the
main trends of the time series. The double-mass curve can be used to adjust inconsistent
precipitation data.

2.4. Weather forecasting

It is a prediction of what the atmosphere looks in a particular place by using technology and
scientific, knowledge to make weather observation. Or a way of predicting like cloud cover, snow,
wind speed, temperature etc…before they happened.
2.4.1. Type of weather forecasting methods.

1.Climatology

The Climatology Method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves
averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.
2.Persistence method

The Persistence Method is the simplest way of producing a forecast. This method assumes that
the conditions at the time of the forecast won't change. The persistence method works well when
weather patterns change very little, and features on the weather maps are moving very slowly. It
also works well in places like southern California, where summertime weather conditions vary
little from day to day. If, however, weather conditions are changing significantly from day to day,
the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use

3.Numerical weather prediction

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) uses the power of computers to make a forecast. Complex
computer programs, also known as forecast models, run on supercomputers and provide
predictions on many atmospheric variables such as temperature, pressure, wind, and rainfall. A
forecaster examines how the features predicted by the computer will interact to produce the day's
weather. The NWP method is flawed in that the equations used by the models to simulate the
atmosphere are not precise. This leads to some error in the predictions. In addition, there are many
gaps in the initial data since we do not receive many weather observations from areas in the
mountains or over the ocean. If the initial state is not completely known, the computer's prediction
of how that initial state will evolve will not be entirely accurate

Station Total available Total missing Missing in % Method used

data(count) data(count)
Arba Minch 3618 37 1.02 Arithmetic
Chencha 3049 606 19.9 Normal ratio
Dinke 3654 0 0 Arithmetic
Humbo 3531 124 3.5 Arithmetic
Morka 3652 3 0.08 Arithmetic
CHAPTER THREE

3.DISCUSION AND RESULT

3.1. DISCUSION

The Microsoft excels are used to analysis the result, as well as Microsoft excels of row to column
converter are help us to convert the data. And we use rainbow software to test the homogeneity.
Then we did some statistical values (like mean) rainfall for each Meteorological stations and we
fill the missing rainfall data by using different methods like arithmetic mean and normal ratio
methods.

3.2. RESULT

3.2.1. Rainfall pattern and trend analysis

Precipitation trend analyses, on different spatial and temporal scales, has been of great concern
during the past century because of the attention given to global climate change from the scientific
community.

1.Monthly rainfall pattern analysis

Monthly rainfall pattern of Arba Minch station

rainfall pattern of Arba Minch

2000
monthly rainfal

1500

1000

500

0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
month

Fig:2.1

The above graph indicates the rainfall pattern of Arba Minch which has bimodal(two) rainfall.
Around this rainfall is twice in a year. This area can get highest rainfall in march, April and May
and also can get minimum rainfall in September, October and November. Generally, Arba Minch
area can get rainfall twice in a year.

2.monthly Rainfall pattern of Chencha station

RAINFALL PATTERNS OF CHENCHA

1800
1600
1400
1200
MONTHLY
AVERAGE

1000
800
600
400
200
0
J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L AU G SE P O C T NO V D E C
MONTH

Fig:2.2

The above figure shows the monthly rainfall pattern of Chencha which is bimodal. This area can
get rainfall twice in a year. The highest rainfall in this area is in August, September and October.
Especially this area can get highest rainfall in October. It also can get rainfall in march, April and
May.

3.Monthly rainfall patterns of Dinke station

rainfall patterns of Dinke

2000
AVERAGE RAINFALL

1500
MONTHLY

1000
500
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTHS

DINKE
Fig:2.3
The above graph shows monthly rainfall pattern of Dinke which has bimodal rainfall. This
area can get rainfall twice in a year. In this area rainfall is highest in march, April and May months.
And also it can get rainfall in August, September and October. But it is minimum when we
compare with march, April and May.
4.monthly rainfall pattern of Humbo station

The below graph indicates the monthly rainfall pattern of Humbo which has bimodal rainfall. This
area can get rainfall twice in a year. This area gets maximum rainfall in July, August and
September Month. And also can get rainfall in March, April and May but it is minimum when we
compared with July, August and September months.

rainfall pattern of Humbo

MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTHS

Fig:2.4
5.Monthly rainfall pattern of Morka station

pattern rainfall of morka

1800
MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTHS

Fig:2.5

The above graph indicates the monthly rainfall pattern of Morka which has bimodal rainfall. This
area can get rainfall twice in a year. This area can get maximum rainfall in march, April and May.
And also this area can get rainfall in September, October and November months. But it is minimum
rainfall when we compare with march, April and may months.
2.Annual Rainfall trend analysis

2.1. Annual rainfall trends of Arba Minch station

Annual rainfall trend of Arba minch

y = 16.013x + 873.6
1200.0

1000.0
ANNUAL RAINFALL

800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YEAR

Fig:2.6

The above graph indicates the increasing of rainfall over Arba Minch.

Over Arba Minch area rainfall is increase from year to year(annually).

2.2. Annual rainfall trends of Chencha station

The below graph indicate the decreasing rainfall trends of Chencha. Over this area rainfall
is decrease from year to year(annual).

ANNUAL RAINFALL TREND OF CHENCHA y = -46.378x + 1326.7

1800
1600
1400
1200
Annual rainfall

1000
800
600
400
200
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YEAR

Fig:2.7
2.3. Annual rainfall trends of Dinke station

Annual Rainfall trend of Dinke y = 25.39x + 1193.5

1800

1600

1400

1200
Annual Rainfaal

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YEAR

Fig:2.8
The above graph indicates the increasing of rainfall trends over Dinke. Over this area rainfall is
increase from year to year(annually).
2.4. Annual rainfall trends of Humbo station

Annual rainfall trend of HUMBO y = 15.671x + 1019.8

1400

1200

1000
Annual rainfall

800

600

400

200

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YEAR

Fig:2.9
The above figure shows the increasing of rainfall trends over humbo area. Over this area rainfall
is increase from year to year(annual).
2.5. Annual rainfall trends of Morka station

Annual rainfall trend of Morka

y = 15.987x + 1018.8
1600

1400

1200
Annual rainfall

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YEAR

Fig:2.10
The above graph indicates the increasing of rainfall trends over Morka. Over this area rainfall is
increase annually.

3. Consistence checking
The consistency of precipitation data can be identified by graphical or statistical method such as:
Double mass curve analysis, the venneuman ratio test, cumulative deviation from the data,
likelihood ratio test and run test. The double mass curve (DMC) method is the most common
method used to check the consistency of rainfall data by plotting the cumulative annual /seasonal
rainfall at the station against the concurrent cumulative value of mean annual /seasonal rainfall for
a group of surrounding stations for the number of years recorded
Year Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative of Cumulative Cumulative
average of Arba of Chencha Dinke of Humbo of Morka
Minch
1999 837.9 753 737.1 1102.6 752.9 843.8
2000 4591.8 1686 1753 2114.7 2028.5 1601.4
2001 3204.1 2814.4 3276.6 3771.6 3225.2 2832.5
2002 4379.1 3935.7 4790.7 4854.5 4340.2 3974.4
2003 5574 4786.2 5881.1 6412.6 5547.8 5242.5
2004 6496.8 5424.9 6971.5 7676 6278.8 6132.9
2005 7769.2 6493 8439.4 9126.7 7544.7 7242.2
2006 9112.7 7505.2 9833.4 10753.4 8715.8 8755.9
2007 10096.1 8555.5 9930.8 12085.4 10043.7 9865.2
2008 11097.1 9616.6 10646.8 13331.6 11059.8 10830.5

CONSISTANCE
60000.0
CUMULATIVE OF NEIGHBOR STATION

50000.0

40000.0

30000.0

20000.0

10000.0

0.0
837.9 1884.0 3255.2 4440.2 5635.2 6558.0 7830.3 9174.0 10157 11158.3
AVERAGE CUM

CUM A/MINCH CUM CHENCHA CUMDINKE CUMHUMBO CUMMORKA

Fig:2.11 consistency checking of annual average of rainfall

The above graph shows the annual average rainfall of cumulative average and neighboring stations
are consistency
4. Testing homogeneity
The test for homogeneity is based on the cumulative deviation from the mean. Using Rainbow
software for hydro-meteorological frequency analysis and testing the homogeneity of historical
data sets. The homogeneity of precipitation data can be identified by standard normal homogeneity
test (SNHT), Bushland range(BR) test and Venneumann ratio test. The most common method for
checking homogeneity test for precipitation data is rainbow software by using cumulative
deviation from the mean.
Homogeneity of Arba Minch station
The below figure indicates the homogeneity of Arba Minch station.
The lines are not cross the others. So we did not reject and probability of rejection.
This means it is homogeneous.

Fig:2.12
Homogeneity of Chencha station
The lines are not cross each other and we did not reject the probability of rejection. So it is
homogeneous

Fig:2.13
Homogeneity of Dinke station

Fig :2.14

The lines are not cross each other and we did not reject the probability of rejection. So it is
homogeneous
Homogeneity of Humbo station

Fig:2.15
The lines are not cross each other and we did not reject the probability of rejection So it is
homogeneous
Homogeneity of Morka station

Fig:2.16
The lines are not cross each other and we did not reject the probability of rejection. So it is
homogeneous.
Climatology monthly forecasting by using monthly average rainfall
1.Dinke station
Climatological forecasting
The future monthly rainfall of 2009 for Dinke station is given as follow for each of months
year Jan Feb mar Apr may Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 10 0.5 145.7 84.9 70.3 106.8 184.5 104.6 91.4 260.3 39.6 4
2000 0.5 0 8.3 83.6 222.5 90.6 121 118.3 128.8 142.9 72.6 23
2001 6.8 20.9 192.6 186.3 235.6 211.8 97.9 193.8 226.4 265.5 3.9 15.4
2002 31 19 134.9 65.4 133.1 64.7 107.4 116.8 161.7 119.7 6.5 122.7
2003 38 14.3 77.2 349.6 99.6 211 194 331.2 120.8 67.8 34.9 19.7
2004 130.5 39.3 13 293.8 77.2 85.2 140.7 121.6 134.2 62.8 121.1 44
2005 22.2 10.3 132.5 223.6 413.3 113.5 145.5 107.4 134.4 118.3 29.7 0
2006 3.2 93.7 151.3 207.3 142.9 115.8 148.5 134.2 172.7 270.9 70.7 115.5
2007 46 61.1 61.2 156.7 142.8 190.2 125 171.5 247.5 99 31 0
2008 4.3 23.5 40.2 164.6 166.4 117.4 191.8 186.3 164.9 126.6 60.2 0
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
= 29.3 28.3 95.7 181.6 170.4 130.7 145.6 158.6 158.3 153.4 47.0 34.4

By using persistence method

year Jan Feb mar Apr may Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 10 0.5 145.7 84.9 70.3 106.8 184.5 104.6 91.4 260.3 39.6 4
2000 0.5 0 8.3 83.6 222.5 90.6 121 118.3 128.8 142.9 72.6 23
2001 6.8 20.9 192.6 186.3 235.6 211.8 97.9 193.8 226.4 265.5 3.9 15.4
2002 31 19 134.9 65.4 133.1 64.7 107.4 116.8 161.7 119.7 6.5 122.7
2003 38 14.3 77.2 349.6 99.6 211 194 331.2 120.8 67.8 34.9 19.7
2004 130.5 39.3 13 293.8 77.2 85.2 140.7 121.6 134.2 62.8 121.1 44
2005 22.2 10.3 132.5 223.6 413.3 113.5 145.5 107.4 134.4 118.3 29.7 0
2006 3.2 93.7 151.3 207.3 142.9 115.8 148.5 134.2 172.7 270.9 70.7 115.5
2007 46 61.1 61.2 156.7 142.8 190.2 125 171.5 247.5 99 31 0
2008 4.3 23.5 40.2 164.6 166.4 117.4 191.8 186.3 164.9 126.6 60.2 0
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
4.3 23.5 40.2 164.6 166.4 117.4 191.8 186.3 164.9 126.6 60.2 0
2.Morka station
By climatological method
year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 13.8 0.6 82.3 68.5 69.2 135.7 104.5 86.9 50.6 202.0 6.8 22.9
2000 0.0 0.0 4.9 46.5 185.0 161.6 112.9 105.1 66.4 257.7 26.9 27.0
2001 9.9 13.8 145.9 283.9 189.8 135.3 85.8 123.4 148.5 149.3 36.4 9.1
2002 54.4 8.2 206.1 99.9 166.9 21.3 13.7 115.8 54.6 73.3 14.4 213.3
2003 52.3 16.2 80.6 194.4 185.6 105.9 107.8 238.9 92.8 148.8 41.0 3.8
2004 52.0 15.3 46.5 239.9 50.0 39.4 37.5 130.6 34.0 18.3 106.2 120.7
2005 36.1 4.8 95.3 77.8 283.1 50.8 129.1 62.9 213.2 79.6 76.6 0.0
2006 21.2 55.5 162.2 201.3 142.7 50.4 100.4 119.6 118.4 216.6 116.7 208.7
2007 60.1 49.1 38.7 132.9 183.8 149.7 112.3 101.5 204.2 52.9 24.1 0.0
2008 5.7 5.4 31.1 149.6 93.4 94.4 116.5 165.0 86.8 153.1 57.7 6.6
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
30.6 16.9 89.4 149.5 155.0 94.5 92.1 125.0 107.0 135.2 50.7 61.2

By persistence method

year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 13.8 0.6 82.3 68.5 69.2 135.7 104.5 86.9 50.6 202.0 6.8 22.9
2000 0.0 0.0 4.9 46.5 185.0 161.6 112.9 105.1 66.4 257.7 26.9 27.0
2001 9.9 13.8 145.9 283.9 189.8 135.3 85.8 123.4 148.5 149.3 36.4 9.1
2002 54.4 8.2 206.1 99.9 166.9 21.3 13.7 115.8 54.6 73.3 14.4 213.3
2003 52.3 16.2 80.6 194.4 185.6 105.9 107.8 238.9 92.8 148.8 41.0 3.8
2004 52.0 15.3 46.5 239.9 50.0 39.4 37.5 130.6 34.0 18.3 106.2 120.7
2005 36.1 4.8 95.3 77.8 283.1 50.8 129.1 62.9 213.2 79.6 76.6 0.0
2006 21.2 55.5 162.2 201.3 142.7 50.4 100.4 119.6 118.4 216.6 116.7 208.7
2007 60.1 49.1 38.7 132.9 183.8 149.7 112.3 101.5 204.2 52.9 24.1 0.0
2008 5.7 5.4 31.1 149.6 93.4 94.4 116.5 165.0 86.8 153.1 57.7 6.6
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
5.7 5.4 31.1 149.6 93.4 94.4 166.5 165.0 86.8 153.1 57.7 6.6
3.Chencha station
By climatological method

year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No Dec
v
1999 30.1 33.8 24.5 231. 83.7 30.2 7.6 60.7 109.4 16. 88. 21.
0 4 0 7
2000 7.0 7.6 82.6 106. 155. 120. 127.3 55.5 145.7 145 62. 0.0
4 2 2 .7 7
2001 19.2 38.8 187. 313. 151. 10.8 68.9 143.1 86.9 218 113 191
3 3 4 .2 .3 .6
2002 145. 6.6 58.9 225. 242. 92.3 112.5 211.9 252.6 168 48. 0.0
2 1 0 .5 5
2003 129. 22.5 30.3 141. 107. 96.7 19.3 31.1 89.4 231 52. 139
4 9 3 .4 0 .1
2004 129. 22.5 30.3 141. 107. 96.7 19.3 31.1 89.4 231 52. 139
4 9 3 .4 0 .1
2005 67.6 116. 245. 156. 278. 144. 85.5 71.8 143.1 117 22. 19.
6 1 2 0 7 .8 1 4
2006 3.2 26.0 97.8 62.2 346. 103. 93.4 160.3 192.4 157 150 0.5
7 3 .9 .3
2007 1.2 5.0 45.0 7.8 6.4 5.8 4.8 6.3 9.5 3.4 1.7 0.4
2008 5.4 5.5 16.1 65.5 51.7 36.4 42.4 88.0 55.0 252 97. 0.0
.6 4
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
53.8 28.5 81.8 145. 153. 73.7 58.1 86.0 117.3 154 68. 51.
1 0 .3 8 2
By persistence method
year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 30.1 33.8 24.5 231.0 83.7 30.2 7.6 60.7 109.4 16.4 88.0 21.7
2000 7.0 7.6 82.6 106.4 155.2 120.2 127.3 55.5 145.7 145.7 62.7 0.0
2001 19.2 38.8 187.3 313.3 151.4 10.8 68.9 143.1 86.9 218.2 113.3 191.6
2002 145.2 6.6 58.9 225.1 242.0 92.3 112.5 211.9 252.6 168.5 48.5 0.0
2003 129.4 22.5 30.3 141.9 107.3 96.7 19.3 31.1 89.4 231.4 52.0 139.1
2004 129.4 22.5 30.3 141.9 107.3 96.7 19.3 31.1 89.4 231.4 52.0 139.1
2005 67.6 116.6 245.1 156.2 278.0 144.7 85.5 71.8 143.1 117.8 22.1 19.4
2006 3.2 26.0 97.8 62.2 346.7 103.3 93.4 160.3 192.4 157.9 150.3 0.5
2007 1.2 5.0 45.0 7.8 6.4 5.8 4.8 6.3 9.5 3.4 1.7 0.4
2008 5.4 5.5 16.1 65.5 51.7 36.4 42.4 88.0 55.0 252.6 97.4 0.0
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
5.4 5.5 16.1 65.5 57.1 36.4 42.4 88 55 252.6 97.4 0

4.Arba Minch station

By climatological method

year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 41.7 31.2 17.5 164.8 58.7 34.8 22.2 69.9 81.6 55.6 143 32
2000 29 1.4 67.1 311.1 221.4 16.2 28.8 22.3 77.4 120.6 33.4 4.3
2001 12.8 83.9 137.4 115.4 129.7 126.2 24.4 75.2 42.8 158.7 103.3 118.6
2002 63.4 35.5 17.1 129.4 193.4 107.2 111.8 99.3 226.4 76.3 61.5 0
2003 0.6 9 60.1 135.1 48.4 76 33.8 56 200.8 149 81.7 0
2004 45.1 3.1 28.5 98.5 109.4 14.9 1.4 16.2 41.3 162.2 14.1 104
2005 19.2 49.7 191 177.9 222.2 80.7 39.7 33.7 146.1 95.1 4.5 8.3
2006 0 28.6 18.9 30.7 263.4398 60.8 28.1 84.7 154.8 73.8 256.8 11.6
2007 36.9416 2.2 30.5 319.7 67.9 72.3 28.2 57 193 129.7 79.3 33.6
2008 27.4 6.9 87.7 240.9 111.1 87.8 48.6 33 78.4 245 86.6 7.7
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

27.6 25.2 65.6 172.4 142.6 67.7 36.7 54.7 124.3 126.6 86.4 32.0
By persistence method
year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 41.7 31.2 17.5 164.8 58.7 34.8 22.2 69.9 81.6 55.6 143 32
2000 29 1.4 67.1 311.1 221.4 16.2 28.8 22.3 77.4 120.6 33.4 4.3
2001 12.8 83.9 137.4 115.4 129.7 126.2 24.4 75.2 42.8 158.7 103.3 118.6
2002 63.4 35.5 17.1 129.4 193.4 107.2 111.8 99.3 226.4 76.3 61.5 0
2003 0.6 9 60.1 135.1 48.4 76 33.8 56 200.8 149 81.7 0
2004 45.1 3.1 28.5 98.5 109.4 14.9 1.4 16.2 41.3 162.2 14.1 104
2005 19.2 49.7 191 177.9 222.2 80.7 39.7 33.7 146.1 95.1 4.5 8.3
2006 0 28.6 18.9 30.7 263.4398 60.8 28.1 84.7 154.8 73.8 256.8 11.6
2007 36.9416 2.2 30.5 319.7 67.9 72.3 28.2 57 193 129.7 79.3 33.6
2008 27.4 6.9 87.7 240.9 111.1 87.8 48.6 33 78.4 245 86.6 7.7
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

27.4 6.9 87.7 240.9 111.1 87.8 48.6 33 78.4 245 86.6 7.7

Humbo station
Climatological method
year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 13.9 0.0 52.2 99.1 17.5 142.9 104.4 102.3 65.9 146.5 8.2 0.0
2000 5.8 0.0 21.8 147.1 362.2 117.7 184.3 144.4 95.4 123.4 62.1 11.4
2001 35.4 7.0 84.3 96.0 166.1 148.6 195.0 235.9 75.5 136.6 9.5 6.8
2002 67.7 6.5 82.3 132.1 135.2 41.8 86.7 198.5 62.3 9.7 39.1 253.1
2003 46.9 21.4 33.0 220.6 88.6 177.9 201.7 193.0 24.0 18.7 13.2 168.6
2004 118.7 11.3 17.6 158.3 24.3 65.2 148.9 84.9 21.1 53.5 22.5 4.7
2005 6.3 8.4 107.9 166.8 230.5 126.3 149.7 124.5 186.0 117.3 42.2 0.0
2006 3.6 41.2 110.0 215.7 101.0 105.4 87.1 204.0 64.3 150.3 46.9 42.2
2007 44.7 44.1 46.7 75.7 210.5 142.9 205.0 289.6 241.1 19.0 8.6 0.0
2008 14.5 19.2 0.0 85.6 139.7 58.2 67.8 179.2 209.8 198.9 40.2 3.0
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
35.8 15.9 55.6 139.7 147.6 112.7 143.1 175.6 104.5 97.4 29.2 49.0
By persistence method
year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999 13.9 0.0 52.2 99.1 17.5 142.9 104.4 102.3 65.9 146.5 8.2 0.0
2000 5.8 0.0 21.8 147.1 362.2 117.7 184.3 144.4 95.4 123.4 62.1 11.4
2001 35.4 7.0 84.3 96.0 166.1 148.6 195.0 235.9 75.5 136.6 9.5 6.8
2002 67.7 6.5 82.3 132.1 135.2 41.8 86.7 198.5 62.3 9.7 39.1 253.1
2003 46.9 21.4 33.0 220.6 88.6 177.9 201.7 193.0 24.0 18.7 13.2 168.6
2004 118.7 11.3 17.6 158.3 24.3 65.2 148.9 84.9 21.1 53.5 22.5 4.7
2005 6.3 8.4 107.9 166.8 230.5 126.3 149.7 124.5 186.0 117.3 42.2 0.0
2006 3.6 41.2 110.0 215.7 101.0 105.4 87.1 204.0 64.3 150.3 46.9 42.2
2007 44.7 44.1 46.7 75.7 210.5 142.9 205.0 289.6 241.1 19.0 8.6 0.0
2008 14.5 19.2 0.0 85.6 139.7 58.2 67.8 179.2 209.8 198.9 40.2 3.0
2009 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
14.5 19.2 0 85.6 139.7 58.2 67.8 179.2 209.8 97.4 40.2 3

Annual rainfall forecasting

Climatological method
year MORKA DINKE HUMBO ARBA CHENCHA
MINCH
1999 843.8 1102.6 752.9 753.0 737.1
2000 994 1012.1 1275.6 933.0 1015.9
2001 1331.1 1656.9 1196.7 1128.4 1542.8
2002 1041.9 1082.9 1115 1121.3 1564.1
2003 1268.1 1558.1 1207.6 850.5 1090.4
2004 890.4 1263.4 731 638.7 1090.4
2005 1109.3 1450.7 1265.9 1068.1 1467.9
2006 1513.7 1626.7 1171.7 1012.2 1393.9
2007 1109.3 1332 1327.9 1050.3 97.4
2008 965.3 1246.2 1016.0 1061.1 716.0
2009 ? ? ? ? ?
1106.7 1333.2 1106.0 961.7 1071.6
Persistence method
year MORKA DINKE HUMBO ARBA CHENCHA
MINCH
1999 843.8 1102.6 752.9 753.0 737.1
2000 994 1012.1 1275.6 933.0 1015.9
2001 1331.1 1656.9 1196.7 1128.4 1542.8
2002 1041.9 1082.9 1115 1121.3 1564.1
2003 1268.1 1558.1 1207.6 850.5 1090.4
2004 890.4 1263.4 731 638.7 1090.4
2005 1109.3 1450.7 1265.9 1068.1 1467.9
2006 1513.7 1626.7 1171.7 1012.2 1393.9
2007 1109.3 1332 1327.9 1050.3 97.4
2008 965.3 1246.2 1016.0 1061.1 716.0
2009 ? ? ? ? ?
965.3 1246.2 1016 1061.1 716