3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS 3 TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS 3.1 INTRODUCTION Describing traffic is considered very difficult due to several factors that cause its irregularity or unpredictability. These factors could be attributed to several events which could happen on the road: ceidents, stalled vehicles, lane changing or swerving, parking maneuvers, indiscriminate loading and unloading of public utility vehicles, ete. Without these events, traffic flow could be expected to be fairly regular and predictable within a day or even within a week, However, the more frequently these events occur along the road, the harder it is to predict the traffic condition. IL is during the occurrence of a traffic event when more advanced knowledge of traffic flow theory, like queuing analysis or shock wave, becomes necessary. These topics will be introduced at the end of the chapter. First, let us consider how we can best describe traffic condition when congestion builds up simply due to continuous increase of traffic density along a road. To illustrate, imagine the development of traffic along the expressway. In the early moming, drivers can freely choose their own speeds because there are only very few vehicles on the road. As traffic density increases, the drivers are constrained to adjust their speeds. Traffic condition becomes very unstable when the capacity of the highway has already been reached, after which, a stop-and-go condition will be experienced if the situation worsens, traffic is brought to a standstill - a complete breakdown of the expressway because of lack of capacity. This condition may last for several minutes or even hours. However, we can expect a reverse process to occur when traffic flow returns to stable condition. 3.2 TYPES OF FLOW Traffic flow is usually classified as either uninterrupted or interrupted. Flow occurring at long sections of road where vehicles are not required to stop by any cause external to the traffic stream is called uninterrupted flow. On the other hand, flow occurring at intersections or3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS driveways where vehicles are required to stop by any cause outside the traffic stream - such as traffic signs (STOP or YIELD), traffic signal lights, etc. - is called interrupted flow. For each type of flow, we will discuss the most commonly used traffic variables that best describe them. 3.2.1 Major Traffic Variables Uninterrupted flow can be described using any of the following traffic variables: A. Flow rate or volume B. Speed C. Density or concentration ow rate or volume Flow rate is defined as the number of vehicles passing a point during a specified period of time. It is often referred to as volume when measured over an hour. Figure 3.1 illustrates the trajectories of vehicles traveling in given section L of a one-way road. Consider a point on the road (represented by a line 1-1 drawn transversely). IEN vehicles (represented by trajectories crossing line 1-1) passed this point in time T, flow rate q may be expressed as: N q=7 6a Again, if the observation period T is set to one hour, q is called volume and will have a unit of vehicles per hour, In general, flow rate (or volume, as used loosely) will have units like vehicles per minute or vehicles per day. Figure 3.1 ‘Time-distance diagram3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS Example 3.1 Let us suppose a 15-minute count of vehicles bound for Manila was conducted at a particular location on Quezon Avenue. A summary is shown in the table below TYPE 15- MINUTE COUNT Car/van 420 ‘Teepney 300 Bus 16 Truck 28 Estimate the flow rate in vehicles per hour. Solution: The total number of vehicles counted in 15 minutes is 420 + 300 + 16 + 28 = 764. This is expanded to one hour by multiplying by 4. Therefore, the flow rate is 64x4 ,056 vehicles per hour (Note that the count within the 15-minute interval is assumed to be the same for the other three 15-minute intervals.) Speed Speed is defined as rate of motion in distance per unit time. When describing traffic stream, two types of speed are used: time men speed and space mean speed. a. Time mean speed Also called spot speed, time mean speed is simply the arithmetic mean of the speeds of vehicles passing a point within a given interval of time. Strictly speaki distance or length of road must be known in order to measure speed, However, with the use of speed radar, spot speed can be measured at a certain point on the road. Also, spot speed can be reasonably measured if a point is approximately by a short distance, say 15- 50 m of road. This distance is normally called trap length in spot speed studies. With the use of stop watch, the time it takes for the vehicle to traverse this trap length is measured. Individual speed of vehicles is then computed by dividing this trap length by this measured time. Figure 3.2 shows how spot speed is approximated by the use of trap length, Ax.3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS Distance Time Fiewe 32 Measuring spot speed using trap-length method Let uj speed of vehicle i, kilometer per hour {;+ time it takes for vehicle i to transverse the trap length, in seconds Ax - trap length, in meters then w= Knowing the individual speeds of n vehicles observed within time T, the time men speed or spot speed of the traffic stream is given by Example 3.2 The speed of 25 cars was observed. 10 cars were noted to travel at 35 kph, 8 cars at 40 kph, 2 cars at 50 kph, and 5 cars at 45 kph. Assuming that each car was traveling at constant speed, determine the time mean speed Solution: Applying equation 3.2 10x35 + 8x40 + 2x50 + 5x45 _ 995 Y= e398 kph3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS It is common practice among traffic engineers to report "spot speed" for given location. Spot speed is often used as basis for establishing speed limits. b. Space mean speed Space mean speed is used to describe the rate of movement of a traffic stream within a given section of road. It is the speed based on the average travel time of vehicles in the stream within the section, It is also called the harmonic mean speed. Consider the time-distance diagram shown in figure 3.3. Only the speeds of vehicles intersected by the line drawn at instant time t are measured. (The speed of a vehicle can actually be estimated by dividing the length of the road section L by its travel time.) Distance Time Figure 3.3 Time-distance diagram for space men speed If n vehicles are observed at an instant of time t, the space mean speed is computed as follows: u, = @3) hn . 1 uy Example 3.3 Using the same example determine the space mea speed. Solution: Applying equation 3.3:3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS 0) 0.637 +a0* 50455 Ly Density Density is defined as the number of vehicles in a given length of road at an instant point, in time. Using the same figure 3.3, the number of vehicles counted at time t divided by the length of the section L gives a measure of density in that section. Again, if n vehicles are found within the section L, density k is computed as: 3.4) Among these three variables, density proves to be the most difficult or expensive to observe. Aerial photography is the most commonly used method to get its exact values. On the other hand, there are various ways of conducting volume and speed studies. (These are discussed in chapter 4.). It will be seen later that these variables are actually related to each other and that density can be derived if volume and speed are known, 3.2.2 Other Traffic Variables There are other variables used to describe traffic flow. These variables, however, are simply variants of the three variables described previously. Time headway Time headway is defined as the time interval between passage of consecutive vehicles at a specified point on the road with a unit of time per vehicles. Referring again to figure 3.1 where N vehicles were counted to pass line 1-1 within the observation time T, let h; be the time headway of 2 consecutive vehicles. The average headway representing all observed vehicles is estimated using arithmetic mean, (Note that if there are N vehicles observed, then there will be N —1 headways that will be measure.) N-1 mahi as a3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS For longer observation period: T =T and N-1= hss and N-l1=N, or N Example 3.4 During moming peak hour, the average headway of UP-Katipunan jeepneys is estimated at 5 minutes. If the passenger demand during the same period is 240, determine whether there is a need to increase the number of jeepney units (or shorten the headway) for this route. Assume that passenger demand is evenly distributed within that period and the average load/occupancy is, 14 passengers per jeepney. (Note: This assumption may not necessarily be true do to fluctuation of passenger demand and variability of passenger occupancy.) Solution: From equation 3.5, the number of jeepneys per hour is 60 60 4) =F, ay 7 Ma eepneys hr With an average load of 14 passengers per jeepney, the total number of passengers that can take a ride is 12x 14= 168 passengers Since the demand during morning peak hour is 240 passengers, it can be said that there is a need to increase the number of jeepney units during peak period, Spacing is the distance between two vehicles measure from the front bumper of a vehicle to that of another. Similar to the estimation of time headway, if there are n vehicles within a3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS given road section L, the sum of (n -1) spacing s; will be almost equal to L. Average spacing, therefore, may be computed as the inverse of density Ss 3.6) l k Example 3.5 During heavy traffic conge ion, it was observed that the average spacing of vehicles in queue in the innermost lane of EDSA is 6.5 m, Determine the jam density of stopped vehicles. Solution: From equation 3.6, the jam density is 4 = 1000 65 = 153.85 vehicles/km ipaney Another useful measure of traffic flow is time occupancy. It can only be measure, however, if a detector is installed at a specific point on the carriageway. It is defined as the total time of a detector is occupied divided by the total time of observation. Figure 3.4 shows how a vehicle is det d using ultrasonic detector. F Ultrasonic detector voltage pulse time ee! t (time the vehicle is detected underneath detector) ABS Detector’s output Figure 3.4 Vehicle detection using ultrasonic detector3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS Assuming that n vehicles were observed during the total time of observation T, the time occupancy Q, is given by 0, = —x 100% ig where t; is the detection time of the i vehicle. 3.3 RELATIONSHIP OF FLOW, SPEED, AND DENSITY A relationship exists among the three most important traffic variables: flow rate, space mean speed, and density. A dimensional analysis of the units will show that flow rate (veh/hr) is simply the product of density (veh/km) and space mean speed (km/hr), or q=kxu, 3.8) As mentioned earlier, density is the most difficult variable to measure. It can be obtained indirectly using this relation. 3.3.1 Observed Relations It is oftentimes useful to determine the relation between any two variables. Surveys at the South Luzon Expressway were conducted. Scattered plots of the data are shown in figure 3.5, Speed, kph ° 20 0 ea Density, k (veh/km) | | a speed-density relation3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS Flow rate, vph ° 20 40 o 0 b. volume-density relation speed, v (kph) 1500 2000 2500 | espe Source of Data: Tagapolot, 1997 Figure 3.5 ‘Volume-speed-density relations for the inner lane of South Luzon Expressway 3.3.2 Empirical Relations Speed-density relation Figure 3.5 shows that as density inereases, speed decreases. Looking at the scatter plot, it is easy to visualize that a linear relation may be assumed between the two variables. (Note that other highways may exhibit a trend other than linear.) This linear relation was first investigated by Greenshield (Gerlough and Huber 1975). To describe this line, the density corresponding to zero speed will be called jam density (k) and the speed corresponding to zero density will be called free flow speed (up). Theoretically, density is not zero since at least one vehicle must be present,3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS u, ‘The equation of the line that gives the relation between speed and density can be easily determined by ratio and proportion uy (U— k/ ky) 9) Example 3.6 Data on density and speed were obtained from a four-line, two-way rural highway (in one direction onl Density, vehikm Speed, kph 75 45 15 85 142 10 100 30 Determine the relation between density and speed. Solution: ‘A common way of analyzing relation of two variables is through linear regression, The so-called best fit line represents the data points with the least error. A scatter diagram of the data points would show that a linear equation may be well suited for the analysis.3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS ‘The regression line takes the form usa+bk where u— speed k= density 8, b— constants to be determined The constants a and b are determined using the following formulas. (The reader is advised to refer to any statistics books for the derivation of these formulas. See And and Tang 1975.) where3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS are the variances of u and k, respectively. The two variables will have a very good correlation if the absolute value of r is close to 10. To perform the regression analysis, it is convenient to prepare the table as shown: Point k u ku ka2 (k-83)42 (u-42.5)42 1 75 45 3375 5625 64 6.25 2 15 85 1275 225 4624 1806.25, 3 142 10 1420 (20164 3481 1056.25 4 100 30 3000 10000 289 156.25 Sum 332 170 9070 36014 8458 3025 Mean 83 42.5 Thu; —nku _9070—4(83)(42.5) 2 22 ane EiP-nk” — 36014-4(83) =-0,5959 u bk =42.5 —(~0.5959)(83) = 91.96 a= aaa parcel oe 8 Sa uy’ = 73025 = 1008.33 5, =31.75 oS ata ss ae Ry = 78458 = 281 This is almost close to -1.0, which means that the correlation between the two variables is very high. ‘Therefore the regression line is u=a+ bk =91,96 0.5959 k The negative sign confirms that as density increases, speed decreases.3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS Example 3.7 Using the results of the previous example, determine the free flow speed and jam density. Solution: The density-speed relation obtained from the previous example is = 91.96 - 0.5959 k Free flow speed occurs when density k = 0. ‘uy= 91.96 — 0.5959 (0) = 91.96 kph Jam density occurs when speed u = 0. = 91.96 - 0.5959 K; or K, = 91.96 / 0.5959 = 154.32 veh/km Volume-density relation Substituting equation 3.9 to the general relation (equation 3.8): q = ku,= k uf — bk) = ufk - klk) a This equation expresses the relation of q and k as parabolic. this can be drawn as shown: Due to the symmetry of the figure, it can be said that the maximum flow qnsx occurs when the density has a value ky, equal to half of jam density kj. However, when the relation3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS cannot be easily identified, it is useful to differentiate the function and equate to zero to get the value of ky corresponding to maximum flow, as follows: Ah au /(1-2h,/h,) 0 Volume-speed relation From equation 3.9, it can also be shown that k=kl=0/m) aay Substituting this in equation 3.8 gives a parabolic relation between q and u,: Au, - u,%u) (3.12) This relation is illustrated below: Again, it can be shown that maximum flow qnax occurs at seed um equal to half of the free flow speed uy. Therefore, the value of the maximum flow, also called capacity, is ee = es ee es3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS Going back to the speed-density relation dna is shown to be the shaded area of the rectangle. Example 3.8 In the previous example, determine the capacity of the rural highway in one direction. Solution: As already shown, the density-speed relation can be modeled by a straight line, The formula for qnax can be used to compute for the capacity. uy _ 154.32 91.96 3,547.82 vehicle/hr 3.4 CAPACITY AND LEVEL OF SERVICE Capacity is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to transverse @ point or uniform section of a lane or roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic, and control conditions. On the other hand, level of service (LOS) is a qualitative description of how a certain facility is performing. Traffic engineers rely on capacity and level of service analyses to determine the width and number of lanes when planning for new facilities or when expanding existing facilities that, are already experiencing congestion problems.3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS The Philippine Highway Planning Manual (PHPM) developed by Planning Service of the DPWH provides a methodology to carry out the process of such analysis The LOS concept uses qualitative measures that characterize operational conditions within a traffic stream and perception of these conditions by motorists and passengers. Six levels of service are defined for cach type of facility and are given letter designations from A to F, with A representing the best operating conditions and F the worst. Each level of service represents a range of operating conditions and is defined by quantitative factors known as measures of effectiveness. In the PHPM method, LOS are defined based on the computed volume and capacity ratio and the space mean speed of the traffic flow. The volume referred to is the hourly demand volume. This method was similar to the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method of 1965. The latest HCM now considers density as the main variable in determining LOS. Nevertheless, both methods gives the same description of each level of service as shown in table 3A.3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS Table 3.1 Levels of service Level of service A Description Free flow, with low volumes and high speeds. Drivers are virtually unaffected by the presence of others, Little or no restriction in maneuverability and speed. The level of comfort and convenience provided is somewhat less than at LOS A. Zone of stable flow with operating speeds beginning to be restricted somewhat by traffic conditions. Drivers will have reasonable freedom to select their speed but there is a decline in freedom to maneuver within the traffic stream from LOS A. Still in zone of stable flow, but speed and maneuverability are most closely controlled by higher volumes. Most of the drivers are restricted in the freedom to select their own speed, lane changing, or overtaking maneuvers. The level of comfort and convenience declines noticeably at this level. Approaches unstable flow. Speed and freedom to maneuver are severely restricted, and driver experiences a generally poor level of comfort and convenience. Small increases in traffic flow will generally cause operational problems. Flow is unstable, and there may be stoppages of momentary condition. Represents operating conditions at or near capacity level. All speeds are reduced to allow but relatively uniform value. Freedom to maneuver within the traffic stream is extremely restricted, and it is generally accomplished by forcing a vehicle to “give way” to accommodate such maneuver. Forced or breakdown flow. The amount of traffic approaching a point exceeds the amount that can traverse the points. Queues form behind such locations. Operation within the queue is characterized by stop- and-go waves, and is extremely unstable. It is the point at which arrival flow causes the queue to form. Puce: Transportation Research Board 2000,3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS Under the PHPM method, these levels of service correspond to the areas shown in figure speed 1,0 volume/capacity Figure 3.6 Levels of service Figure 3.6 is actually the same diagram as the volume-speed relation but with the horizontal axis normalized by dividing volume by the capacity Table 3.2 shows the value of volume-capacity ratio for each LOS. Table 3.2 Volume-capacity ratio and LOS Level of service Volume-capacity ratio less than 0.20 0.21-0.50 0.51-0.70 0.71-0.85 0.86-1.00 greater than 1.0 [rises ante etka fe wires Source: Ministry of Public Works and Highway 1982. mmone>3: TRAFFIC FLOW FUNDAMENTALS In the current US Highway Capacity Manual, the different measures of effectiveness that most appropriately describe the LOS for different types of facility are shown in table 3.3. Table 3.3 Measure of effectiveness for different highway types Type of facility Measure of effectiveness Basic expressway segments | density (passenger car/km/lane) Weaving areas average travel speed (km/hr) Ramp junctions flow rates (passenger car/ht) Multilane highways density (passenger a wo-lane highways scent time delay (%) spain inarsectons Sverage individual stopped delay (seciveh) Unsignalized intersections | reserve capacity (passenger car/hr) Aneerials average travel speed (km/h) Source: Transportation Research Board 2000. Example 3.9 From the example of section 3.3, if trai volume in the same direction where capacity was estimated was 2,050 vehicles per hour at a particular period, determine the level of service of the highway (in that direction). Solution: The capacity computed in the previous example was qnax = 3,547.82 vehicles per hour. The volume-capacity ratio is 0 6A 82 = 0.578 Comparing this volume-capacity ratio with the values provided in table 3.2, the LOS is C. 3.5 HYDRODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC MODELS OF TRAFFIC Using fluid flow analogy, models are used to describe traffic flow will be developed in this section. Consider two points on a one-way road assumed to be homogeneous: