All Lecture Materials
All Lecture Materials
1
Software Project Management
2
Introduction to Project
Management
3
Objectives
At the end of this chapter students should be able to
Explain what a project is and provide examples of IT
projects
Describe what project management is and discuss key
elements of the project management framework
Describe how project management relates to other
disciplines
Understand the history of project management (RA)
Explain the growing need for better project management,
especially for IT projects
4
Information Systems
5
What Is a Project?
6
What Is a Project?
A project is “a temporary endeavor
undertaken to accomplish a unique product
or service” (PMBOK® Guide 2000, p. 4)
Attributes of projects
unique purpose
temporary
require resources, often from various areas
should have a primary sponsor and/or customer
involve uncertainty
7
Attributes of project products
The project product can take many forms from
the entirely physical-the construction of new
building or automobile, to the virtually abstract-
procedure for dealing with emergency
Between the two extremes there will be
diversity of products each with its own
particular requirements and hence variations in
managing different projects.
However all projects have common features
8
The Triple Constraint
Every project is constrained in different ways by
its
Scope goals: What is the project trying to
accomplish?
Time goals: How long should it take to
complete?
Cost goals: What should it cost?
10
Program Vs Projects
A program is a single use plan comprising
multiple activities orchestrated to achieve one
important objective.
Projects are smaller, separate portions of
programs which are limited in scope and
contain distinct directives concerning
assignments and time.
A program is wider in scope than a project
There may be office automation program
consisting of a number of projects
11
What is Project Management?
Project management is “the application of
knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to
project activities in order to meet project
requirements” (PMI*, Project Management Body
of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), 2000, p. 6)
14
Project Management Framework
15
Advantages of Using Formal Project
Management
Better control of financial, physical, and human
resources
Improved customer relations
Shorter development times
Lower costs
Higher quality and increased reliability
Higher profit margins
Improved productivity
Better internal coordination
Higher worker morale
16
Project Stakeholders
Stakeholders are the people involved in or
affected by project activities
Stakeholders include
the project sponsor and project team
support staff
customers
users
suppliers
17
9 Project Management Knowledge Areas
18
Project Management Tools and
Techniques
Project management tools and techniques assist project
managers and their teams in various aspects of project
management
Some specific ones include
Project Charter and WBS (scope)
Gantt charts, network diagrams, critical path analysis, critical chain
scheduling (time)
Cost estimates and earned value management (cost)
19
How Project Management (PM) Relates to
Other Disciplines
Much of the knowledge needed to manage projects is unique
to PM
However, project managers must also have knowledge and
experience in
general management
the application area of the project
Project managers must focus on meeting specific project
objectives
20
Project Management and Other
Disciplines
21
Reading Assignment
History of Project Management
The Project Management Profession
PMBOK
Project Management Software
22
The Project Management
Context and Processes
23
Objectives
At the end of this chapter students should be able to
Explain the four general phases of project life cycle
Distinguish between project development and product
development
Analyze a formal organization using the four frames of
organizations
Explain the differences among functional, matrix, and
project organizational structures
List important skills and attributes of a good project
manager
Describe the five process groups of project management,
the typical level of activity for each, and the interactions
among them
Have a basic view of how the project process groups
relate to the project management knowledge areas.
24
A Systems View of Project
Management
A project is viewed as a conversion or
transformation of some form of Input into an
output—a system
The project will take place under a set of
controls or constraints
The mechanisms are those resources that
make the transformation process possible
25
The Project as a conversion process
Constraints
Financial
Legal
Ethical
Environmental
Time
Quality, etc
Input: Output:
Project Satisfied need
Want/Need
Mechanisms
Knowledge and
Expertise
Tools and techniques
Technology, etc
26
Project Phases and the Project Life Cycle
27
Phases of the Project Life Cycle
28
Product Life Cycles
Products also have life cycles
The Systems Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is
a framework for describing the phases
involved in developing and maintaining
information systems
Typical SDLC phases include planning,
analysis, design, implementation, and
support
29
Sample SDLC Models
Waterfall model: has well-defined, linear stages of
systems development and support
Spiral model: shows that software is developed
using an iterative or spiral approach rather than a
linear approach
Incremental release model: provides for
progressive development of operational software
RAD model: used to produce systems quickly
without sacrificing quality
Prototyping model: used for developing prototypes
to clarify user requirements
30
Spiral Model of Software Development
(Boehm, 1988)
31
Rational Unified Process (RUP)
Floyd from Kruchten and Ivar Jacobson
Craig Larman
Phases of RUP
Inception phase
Elaboration phase
Construction phase
Transition phase
32
33
Distinguishing Project Life Cycles and
Product Life Cycles
The project life cycle applies to all projects,
regardless of the products being produced
Product life cycle models vary considerably
based on the nature of the product
Most large IT products are developed as a
series of projects
Project management is done in all of the
product life cycle phases
34
Many Organizations Focus on the
Structural Frame
Most people understand what organizational
charts are
Many new managers try to change
organizational structure when other changes
are needed
3 basic organization structures
functional
project
matrix
35
Functional, Project, and Matrix Organizational
Structures
36
What Helps Projects Succeed?
According to the Standish Group’s report CHAOS
2001: A Recipe for Success, the following items help
IT projects succeed, in order of importance:
Executive support
User involvement
Experience project manager
Clear business objectives
Minimized scope
Standard software infrastructure
Firm basic requirements
Formal methodology
Reliable estimates
37
Skills for a Project Manager
Management skill to
o Leadership skill
o Communication skill
o Negotiation skill
o Problem solving skill
o Ability to influence organizations
Organizational skill to plan, analyze and
achieve project objectives
IT skill as it relates to specific projects
38
Project Management Process Groups
Project management can be viewed as a
number of interlinked processes
A process is a serious of interrelated activities or
actions directed towards a specific result
The project management process groups
include
initiating processes
planning processes
executing processes
controlling processes
closing processes
39
Overlap of Process Groups in a
Phase (PMBOK Guide, 2000, p. 31)
40
Relationships Among Process Groups, Activities, &
Knowledge Areas
41
Relationships Among Process Groups, Activities,
and Knowledge Areas
42
Reading Assignment
Project Management Job Functions
Suggested Skills for a Project Manager
Most Significant Characteristics of Effective and
Ineffective Project Managers
43
Project Integration
Management
44
Objectives
Understand the importance of project integration
management
Describe an overall framework for project integration
management as it relates to the other project
management knowledge areas and the project life cycle
Describe project plan development and the major
components of a good project plan
Explain project plan execution and key aspects of getting
work results
Describe the overall change control process and the
creation of project plan updates, corrective action, and
lessons learned
Explain why top management commitment to project
management is critical for a project’s success
45
The Key to Overall Project Success: Good Project
Integration Management
Project managers must coordinate all of the
other knowledge areas throughout a project’s
life cycle
Many new project managers have trouble
looking at the “big picture” and want to focus
on too many details
Project integration management is not the
same thing as software integration
46
Project Integration Management
Processes
Project Plan Development: taking the
results of other planning processes and
putting them into a consistent, coherent
document—the project plan
Project Plan Execution: carrying out the
project plan
Integrated Change Control: coordinating
changes across the entire project
47
Project Integration Management
Overview
48
Note: The PMBOK Guide includes similar charts for each knowledge area.
49
50
51
Framework for Project Integration
Management
Focus on pulling everything to-
gether to reach project success!
52
53
Project Plan Development
A project plan is a document used to
coordinate all project planning documents
Its main purpose is to guide project execution
Project plans assist the project manager in
leading the project team and assessing
project status
Project performance should be measured
against a baseline project plan
54
Attributes of Project Plans
Just as projects are unique, so are project plans
Plans should be dynamic
55
Common Elements of a Project
Plan
Introduction or overview of the project
Description of how the project is organized
Management and technical processes used
on the project
Work to be done, schedule, and budget
information
56
Sample Outline for a Software Project Management
Plan (SPMP)
Project Management Plan Sections
Introduction Project Managerial Technical Work
Organization Process Process Packages,
Schedule, and
Budget
Section Project Process model; Management Methods, tools, Work
Topics overview; organizational objectives and and packages;
project structure; priorities; techniques; Dependencies;
deliverables; organizational assumptions, software resource
evolution of boundaries and dependencies, documentation; requirements;
the SPMP; interfaces; and and project budget and
reference project constraints; support resource
materials; responsibilities risk functions allocation;
definitions and management; and schedule
acronyms monitoring
and
controlling
mechanisms;
and staffing
plan
IEEE Std 10581-1987
57
Stakeholder Analysis
A stakeholder analysis documents important (often sensitive)
information about stakeholders such as
stakeholders’ names and organizations
roles on the project
unique facts about stakeholders
level of influence and interest in the project
suggestions for managing relationships
58
Sample Stakeholder Analysis
K e y S ta k e h o ld e rs
A hm ed S u san E rik M a rk D a v id
O rg a n iz a tio n In te rn a l P r o je c t te a m P r o je c t te a m H a rd w a re P ro je c t
s e n io r vendor m a n a g e r fo r
m anagem ent o th e r
in te rn a l
p ro je c t
R o le o n S p o n so r o f D N A Lead S u p p lie s C o m p e tin g
p ro je c t p ro je c t a n d s e q u e n c in g p ro g ra m m e r so m e fo r c o m p a n y
o n e o f th e e x p e rt in s tru m e n t re so u rc e s
c o m p a n y 's h a rd w a re
fo u n d e rs
U n iq u e fa c ts D e m a n d in g , V e r y s m a rt, B est S ta rt-u p N ic e g u y ,
lik e s d e ta ils , P h .D . in p ro g ra m m e r com pany, he o n e o f o ld e s t
b u sin e ss b io lo g y , I know , know s w e p e o p le a t
fo c u s, e a s y to w o rk w e ird s e n se can m ake com pany,
S ta n fo rd w ith , h a s a of hum or h im ric h if h a s 3 k id s in
M B A to d d le r th is w o rk s c o lle g e
Level of V e ry h ig h V e ry h ig h H ig h V e ry h ig h L o w to
in te re s t m e d iu m
Level of V e ry h ig h ; S u b je c t H ig h ; h a rd L o w ; o th e r L o w to
in flu e n c e c a n c a ll th e m a tte r to re p la c e v e n d o rs m e d iu m
sh o ts e x p e rt; a v a ila b le
c r itic a l to
su ccess
S u g g e s tio n s K eep M a k e su re K e e p h im G iv e h im H e know s
o n m a n a g in g in f o r m e d , le t sh e re v ie w s h ap p y so h e e n o u g h le a d h is p ro je c t
r e la tio n s h ip h im le a d s p e c ific a tio n sta y s; tim e to ta k e s a b a c k
c o n v e rs a tio n s a n d le a d s e m p h a s iz e d e liv e r se a t to th is
s ,d o a s h e te s tin g ; c a n sto c k h a rd w a re one, but I
sa ys an d d o so m e o p tio n s ; c a n le a rn
q u ic k ly w o rk fro m lik e s fro m h im
hom e M e x ic a n
fo o d
59
Project Plan Execution
Project plan execution involves managing
and performing the work described in the
project plan
The majority of time and money is usually
spent on execution
The application area or the project directly
affects project execution because the
products of the project are produced during
execution
60
Important Skills for Project Execution
General management skills like leadership,
communication, and political skills
Product skills and knowledge (see example
of “What Went Right?”)
Use of specialized tools and techniques
61
Tools and Techniques for Project
Execution
Work Authorization System: a method for
ensuring that qualified people do work at the
right time and in the proper sequence
Status Review Meetings: regularly
scheduled meetings used to exchange
project information
Project Management Software: special
software to assist in managing projects
62
Integrated Change Control
Integrated change control involves
identifying, evaluating, and managing
changes throughout the project life cycle
(Note: 1996 PMBOK called this process
“overall change control”)
Three main objectives of change control:
Influence the factors that create changes to
ensure they are beneficial
Determine that a change has occurred
Manage actual changes when and as they
occur
63
Integrated Change Control Process
64
Change Control on Information
Technology Projects
Former view: The project team should strive to do exactly what was
planned on time and within budget
Problem: Stakeholders rarely agreed up-front on the project scope, and
time and cost estimates were inaccurate
Modern view: Project management is a process of constant
communication and negotiation
Solution: Changes are often beneficial, and the project team should
plan for them
65
Change Control System
A formal, documented process that describes when and how
official project documents and work may be changed
Describes who is authorized to make changes and how to
make them
Often includes a change control board (CCB), configuration
management, and a process for communicating changes
66
Change Control Boards (CCBs)
A formal group of people responsible for approving or
rejecting changes on a project
Provides guidelines for preparing change requests, evaluates
them, and manages the implementation of approved changes
Includes stakeholders from the entire organization
67
Making Timely Changes
Some CCBs only meet occasionally, so it may take too long
for changes to occur
Some organizations have policies in place for time-sensitive
changes
“48 hour policy” allowed project team members to make decisions,
then they had 48 hours reverse the decision pending senior
management approval
Delegate changes to the lowest level possible, but keep everyone
informed of changes
68
Configuration Management
Ensures that the products and their descriptions are
correct and complete
Concentrates on the management of technology by
identifying and controlling the functional and
physical design characteristics of products
Configuration management specialists identify and
document configuration requirements, control
changes, record and report changes, and audit the
products to verify conformance to requirements
69
Suggestions for Managing Integrated Change
Control
View project management as a process of constant
communications and negotiations
Plan for change
Establish a formal change control system, including a
Change Control Board (CCB)
Use good configuration management
Define procedures for making timely decisions on smaller
changes
Use written and oral performance reports to help identify
and manage change
Use project management and other software to help
manage and communicate changes
70
Note: See the text itself for full citations.
Understand the importance of project cost
management
Explain basic project cost management principles,
concepts, and terms
Discuss different types of cost estimates and
methods for preparing them
Copyright 2009 2
Understand the processes involved in cost
budgeting and preparing a cost estimate and
budget for an information technology project
Understand the benefits of earned value
management and project portfolio management to
assist in cost control
Describe how project management software can
assist in project cost management
Copyright 2009 3
IT projects have a poor track record for meeting
budget goals
The CHAOS studies found the average cost
overrun (the additional percentage or dollar
amount by which actual costs exceed estimates)
ranged from 180 percent in 1994 to 56 percent in
2004; other studies found overruns to be 33-34
percent
2
Objectives
At the end of this chapter, students should be able to
⚫ Understand the importance of good project time
management
⚫ Explain the basic process for developing project
schedules
⚫ Describe how various tools and techniques help project
managers perform activity definition, activity
sequencing, activity duration estimating, schedule
development, and schedule control
⚫ Use a Gantt chart for schedule planning and tracking
schedule information
⚫ Construct a project network diagram and understand
its importance for determining overall project
completion dates
⚫ Understand and use critical path analysis
3
Project Time Management
Processes
⚫ Project time management involves the
processes required to ensure timely
completion of a project. Processes include:
⚫ Activity definition
⚫ Activity sequencing
⚫ Activity duration estimating
⚫ Schedule development
⚫ Schedule control
4
Where Do Schedules Come From? Defining
Activities
5
Iterative Approach to Project
Time planning
⚫ The general approach to planning involves
starting with a rough overview and
conducting revisions—the process is known
as iterative—involves going through the cycle
several times to test the effects of the
changes on the outcome
⚫ The major objective of iterative approach is to
⚫ To make the major revisions early in the cycle
⚫ Make minor refinements to the plan later
6
Activity Sequencing—
dependency
⚫ Involves reviewing activities and determining
dependencies
⚫ Mandatory dependencies: inherent in the
nature of the work; hard logic
⚫ Discretionary dependencies: defined by
the project team; soft logic
⚫ External dependencies: involve
relationships between project and non-
project activities
⚫ You must determine dependencies in order
to use critical path analysis
7
Project Network Diagrams
⚫ Project network diagrams are the preferred technique for
showing activity sequencing
⚫ A project network diagram is a schematic display of the
logical relationships among, or sequencing of, project
activities
⚫ Project network diagrams are graphical techniques used to
illustrate the relationship between the activities and time
8
Sample Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) Network
Diagram for Project X
9
Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
⚫ Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) project network diagrams
⚫ Activities are represented by arrows. An activity is an element
of the work entailed in the project—a task that must be
carried out.
⚫ Nodes or circles are the starting and ending points of
activities—events
⚫ Can only show finish-to-start dependencies
10
Types of Dependencies (Relationships)
1. Finish-to-start→ the preceding activity
should be finished to start the succeeding
one.
2. Start-to-start→ the preceding activity must
start when or before starting the succeeding
activity
3. Finish-to-finish→ the preceding activity must
finish before the succeeding activity finishes
4. Start-to-finish→ the “from” activity must start
before the “to” activity can finish
11
Process for Creating AOA
Diagrams
1. Find all of the activities that start at node 1. Draw their
finish nodes and draw arrows between node 1 and those
finish nodes. Put the activity letter or name and duration
estimate on the associated arrow The events and
activities should be given unique identifiers or labels
2. Continuing drawing the network diagram, working from
left to right. Look for bursts and merges. Bursts occur
when a single node is followed by two or more activities.
A merge occurs when two or more nodes precede a
single node
3. Continue drawing the project network diagram until all
activities are included on the diagram that have
dependencies
4. As a rule of thumb, all arrowheads should face toward the
right, and no arrows should cross on an AOA network
diagram
12
Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)
⚫ Activities are represented by boxes
⚫ Arrows show relationships between activities
⚫ More popular than ADM method and used by project
management software
⚫ Better at showing different types of dependencies
13
Sample Precedence Diagramming Method
(PDM) Network Diagram for Project X
14
Activity Duration Estimating
⚫ After defining activities and determining their
sequence, the next step in time management
is duration estimating
⚫ Duration includes the actual amount of time
worked on an activity plus elapsed time
⚫ People doing the work should help create
estimates, and an expert should review them
15
Schedule Development
⚫ Schedule development uses results of the
other time management processes to
determine the start and end date of the
project and its activities
⚫ Ultimate goal is to create a realistic project
schedule that provides a basis for monitoring
project progress for the time dimension of the
project
⚫ Important tools and techniques include Gantt
charts, PERT analysis, critical path analysis
16
Gantt Charts
⚫ Gantt charts provide a standard format for
displaying project schedule information by listing
project activities and their corresponding start and
finish dates in a calendar format
⚫ Symbols include:
⚫ A black diamond: milestones or significant events on a
project with zero duration
⚫ Thick black bars: summary tasks
⚫ Lighter horizontal bars: tasks
⚫ Arrows: dependencies between tasks
17
Gantt Chart for Project X
Project 98 file 18
Sample Tracking Gantt Chart
20
Steps in Developing PERT NW
A 3 D
1
C
B
22
Steps in Developing PERT NW (Cont’d)
4. Make time estimates for each activity—the PERT
algorithm requires that three estimates be obtained:
⚫ the optimistic (a)—the time required in ideal
manner
⚫ most likely time (m)—the most likely activity time
under normal condition
⚫ the pessimistic (p)—the activity time if the project
encounters major breakdown/delays
⚫ These three estimates enable the manager to
develop better guess of the most likely activity
time
23
Steps in Developing PERT NW (Cont’d)
5. Calculate the expected time (t)
24
Steps in Developing PERT NW
(Cont’d)
Optimistic Probable Pessimistic Expected
Activity time (a) time (m) time (p) time (t)
A 5 12 6
4
B 1 1.5 5 2
C 2 3 4 3
D 3 4 11 5
E 2 3 4 3
F 1.5 2 2.5 2
G 1.5 3 4.5 3
25
Steps in Developing PERT NW (Cont’d)
Logic dummies
30
A
10
D
G
50 60
B E
40 Identity
F dummies
C 45
26
Steps in Developing PERT NW (Cont’d)
6. Calculate the variance (σ2) of each activity time. The
variance of each activity is calculated as
b − a
2
=
2
6
⚫ The variance describes the dispersion or deviation
in the activity time
⚫ The difference b/n the pessimistic (p) and optimistic
(a) time estimates affects the value of the variance.
⚫ Large difference in the two values implies high
degree of uncertainty in the activity time
7. Calculate the critical path
27
Critical Path Method (CPM)
⚫ The next step is calculating the critical path
⚫ CPM is a project network analysis
technique used to predict total project
duration
⚫ A critical path for a project is the series of
activities that determines the earliest time
by which the project can be completed
⚫ The critical path is the longest path through
the network diagram and has the least
amount of slack or float
28
CPM (Cont’d)
⚫ A path is a sequence of connected activities
that leads from the starting node to the
completion node
⚫ The longest path determines the expected
total time or expected duration of the project
⚫ The longest path activities are the critical
path activities of the project and the longest
path is called the critical path of the network
⚫ Finding the critical path of the project involves
the following steps
29
CPM (Cont’d)
a. Work on the forward pass calculation
⚫ Starting at the origin (node 1) and using a
starting time of 0, compute the earliest start (ES)
and earliest finish (EF) time for each activity on
the network.
⚫ ES—earliest start time for a particular activity
⚫ EF—earliest finish time for a particular activity
⚫ t—expected activity time
EF = ES + t
⚫ When two or more activities are entering a node,
we have the earliest time rule. 30
CPM (Cont’d)
⚫ Earliest Time Rule
⚫ The earliest start time for an activity leaving a
particular node is equal to the largest value of
the earliest finish times for all activities entering
the node.
Slack time = LS – ES = LF – EF
33
Determining the Critical Path for
Project X
34
More on the Critical Path
⚫ If one or more activities on the critical path takes
longer than planned, the whole project schedule will
slip unless corrective action is taken
⚫ Misconceptions:
⚫ The critical path is not the one with all the critical activities;
it only accounts for time
⚫ There can be more than one critical path if the lengths of
two or more paths are the same
⚫ The critical path can change as the project progresses
35
Using Critical Path Analysis to Make
Schedule Trade-offs
⚫ Knowing the critical path helps you make
schedule trade-offs
⚫ Free slack or free float is the amount of time
an activity can be delayed without delaying
the early start of any immediately following
activities
⚫ Total slack or total float is the amount of
time an activity may be delayed from its early
start without delaying the planned project
finish date
36
Free and Total Float or Slack for Project X
37
Techniques for Shortening a Project Schedule
38
Crashing Activity Times
⚫ Sometimes it may be difficult to meet project
completion dates in that the time for the
critical path may be longer than the time
given by management.
⚫ Hence, shortening activity time may be
needed at a cost of additional resources-such
a process is known as crashing activity
time
⚫ But crashing always results in added project
costs
39
Crashing Activity Times (Cont’d)
40
Crashing Activity Times (Cont’d)
⚫ Let
T = Normal activity time
T1 = Crashed activity time under maximum crashing
Cn = Normal activity cost
Cc = Crashed activity cost under maximum crashing
⚫ Maximum possible activity time reduction M
due to crashing is
M = T - T1
41
Crashing Activity Times (Cont’d)
Cc − Cn Cc − Cn
=
M T−T 1
42
Crashing Activity Times (Cont’d)
44
Total Activity
Crashing Activity Times (Cont’d)
Cost
Maximum Possible
1800 Crashing Operation
1600
1400
Normal
1200 Operation
1000
800
600
400
200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
46
Critical Chain Scheduling
⚫ Technique that addresses the challenge of meeting or
beating project finish dates and an application of the
Theory of Constraints (TOC)
⚫ Developed by Eliyahu Goldratt in his books The Goal
and Critical Chain
⚫ Critical chain scheduling is a method of scheduling
that takes limited resources into account when
creating a project schedule and includes buffers to
protect the project completion date
⚫ Critical chain scheduling assumes resources do not
multitask because it often delays task completions
and increases total durations
47
Multitasking Example
48
Buffers and Critical Chain
⚫ A buffer is additional time to complete a task
⚫ Murphy’s Law states that if something can go wrong,
it will, and Parkinson’s Law states that work expands
to fill the time allowed. In traditional estimates, people
often add a buffer and use it if it’s needed or not
⚫ Critical chain schedule removes buffers from
individual tasks and instead creates
⚫ A project buffer, which is additional time added before the
project’s due date
⚫ Feeding buffers, which are addition time added before tasks
on the critical path
49
Example of Critical Chain Scheduling
50
Reading Assignment
⚫ Controlling Changes to the Project Schedule
Perform reality checks on schedules
51
52
Project Risk
Management
53
Objectives
At the end of this chapter, students should be able to
⚫ Understand the importance of good project risk
management
⚫ Understand what risk is and describe different tolerances
of risk
⚫ Identify common sources of risk on information
technology projects and develop strategies for reducing
them
⚫ Describe common risk conditions that occur in each
project management knowledge area
⚫ Explain various techniques for quantifying risk and
calculate expected monetary values of projects
⚫ Explain how a Monte Carlo simulation works and how it
can be used in risk management
⚫ Use the Top 10 Risk Tracking approach 54
Project Management Maturity by
Industry Group and Knowledge Area
55
What is Risk?
⚫ A dictionary definition of risk is “the possibility of loss or injury”
⚫ Project risk involves understanding potential problems that
might occur on the project and how they might impede project
success
⚫ Risk management is like a form of insurance; it is an
investment
56
Risk Utility
⚫ Risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of
satisfaction or pleasure received from a
potential payoff
⚫ Utility rises at a decreasing rate for a person who
is risk-averse
⚫ Those who are risk-seeking have a higher
tolerance for risk and their satisfaction increases
when more payoff is at stake
⚫ The risk neutral approach achieves a balance
between risk and payoff
57
Risk Utility Function and Risk Preference
58
What is Project Risk Management?
The goal of project risk management is to minimize potential risks
while maximizing potential opportunities. Major processes include
⚫ Risk management planning: deciding how to approach and plan
the risk management activities for the project
⚫ Risk identification: determining which risks are likely to affect a
project and documenting their characteristics
⚫ Qualitative risk analysis: characterizing and analyzing risks and
prioritizing their effects on project objectives
⚫ Quantitative risk analysis: measuring the probability and
consequences of risks
⚫ Risk response planning: taking steps to enhance opportunities
and reduce threats to meeting project objectives
⚫ Risk monitoring and control: monitoring known risks, identifying
new risks, reducing risks, and evaluating the effectiveness of
risk reduction
59
Risk Management Planning
⚫ The main output of risk management planning is a risk
management plan
⚫ The project team should review project documents and
understand the organization’s and the sponsor’s approach to
risk
⚫ The level of detail will vary with the needs of the project
60
Questions Addressed in a Risk Management Plan
61
Contingency and Fallback Plans,
Contingency Reserves
⚫ Contingency plans are predefined actions that the project
team will take if an identified risk event occurs
⚫ Fallback plans are developed for risks that have a high impact
on meeting project objectives
⚫ Contingency reserve or allowances are provisions held by the
project sponsor that can be used to mitigate cost or schedule
risk if changes in scope or quality occur
62
Risk Identification
⚫ Risk identification is the process of
understanding what potential unsatisfactory
outcomes are associated with a particular
project
⚫ Several risk identification tools and
techniques include
⚫ Brainstorming
⚫ The Delphi technique
⚫ Interviewing
⚫ SWOT analysis
63
Potential Risk Conditions Associated
With Each Knowledge Area
Knowledge Area Risk Conditions
Integration Inadequate planning; poor resource allocation; poor integration
management; lack of post-project review
Scope Poor definition of scope or work packages; incomplete definition
of quality requirements; inadequate scope control
Time Errors in estimating time or resource availability; poor allocation
and management of float; early release of competitive products
Cost Estimating errors; inadequate productivity, cost, change, or
contingency control; poor maintenance, security, purchasing, etc.
Quality Poor attitude toward quality; substandard
design/materials/workmanship; inadequate quality assurance
program
Human Resources Poor conflict management; poor project organization and
definition of responsibilities; absence of leadership
Communications Carelessness in planning or communicating; lack of consultation
with key stakeholders
Risk Ignoring risk; unclear assignment of risk; poor insurance
management
Procurement Unenforceable conditions or contract clauses; adversarial relations
64
Quantitative Risk Analysis
⚫ Assess the likelihood and impact of
identified risks to determine their
magnitude and priority
⚫ Risk quantification tools and techniques
include
⚫ Probability/Impact matrixes
⚫ The Top 10 Risk Item Tracking technique
⚫ Expert judgment
65
Sample Probability/Impact Matrix for
Qualitative Risk Assessment
66
Chart Showing High-, Medium-, and
Low-Risk Technologies
67
Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
68
Example of Top 10 Risk Item
Tracking
Monthly Ranking
Risk Item This Last Number Risk Resolution
of Months Progress
Month Month
Inadequate 1 2 4 Working on revising the
planning entire project plan
Poor definition 2 3 3 Holding meetings with
of scope project customer and
sponsor to clarify scope
Absence of 3 1 2 Just assigned a new
leadership project manager to lead
the project after old one
quit
Poor cost 4 4 3 Revising cost estimates
estimates
Poor time 5 5 3 Revising schedule
estimates estimates
69
Expert Judgment
⚫ Many organizations rely on the intuitive feelings and past
experience of experts to help identify potential project risks
⚫ Experts can categorize risks as high, medium, or low with or
without more sophisticated techniques
70
Quantitative Risk Analysis
⚫ Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but both can be done
together or separately
⚫ Large, complex project involving leading edge technologies
often require extensive quantitative risk analysis
⚫ Main techniques include
⚫ Decision tree analysis
⚫ simulation
71
Decision Trees and Expected Monetary
Value (EMV)
⚫ A decision tree is a diagramming method used to help you
select the best course of action in situations in which future
outcomes are uncertain
⚫ EMV is a type of decision tree where you calculate the
expected monetary value of a decision based on its risk event
probability and monetary value
72
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Example
73
Simulation
⚫ Simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the
expected behavior or performance of the system
⚫ Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s outcome many time to
provide a statistical distribution of the calculated results
⚫ To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must have three estimates (most
likely, pessimistic, and optimistic) plus an estimate of the likelihood of
the estimate being between the optimistic and most likely values
74
Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results
for Project Schedule
75
Sample Monte Carlo Simulations
Results for Project Costs
76
Risk Response Planning
⚫ After identifying and quantifying risk, you must decide how to respond
to them
⚫ Four main strategies:
⚫ Risk avoidance: eliminating a specific threat or risk, usually by eliminating its
causes
⚫ Risk acceptance: accepting the consequences should a risk occur
⚫ Risk transference: shifting the consequence of a risk and responsibility for its
management to a third party
⚫ Risk mitigation: reducing the impact of a risk event by reducing the probability of
its occurrence
77
General Risk Mitigation Strategies for Technical, Cost,
and Schedule Risks
78
Risk Monitoring and Control
79
Risk Response Control
⚫ Risk response control involves executing the
risk management processes and the risk
management plan to respond to risk events
⚫ Risks must be monitored based on defined
milestones and decisions made regarding
risks and mitigation strategies
⚫ Sometimes workarounds or unplanned
responses to risk events are needed when
there are no contingency plans
80
Reading Assignments
⚫ McFarlan’s Risk Questionnaire
⚫ Categories of Risk
81
Project Procurement
Management
82
Objectives
At the end of this chapter, students should be able to
⚫ Understand the importance of good procurement management
and the increasing use of outsourcing for information technology
projects
⚫ Describe the main processes and deliverables of procurement
management
⚫ Perform a simple make-or-buy analysis
⚫ Explain the various types of contracts, the risks involved in using
each, and provide examples of when each might be used for an
information technology project
⚫ Describe the basic contents of a Request for Proposal
⚫ Create and use a proposal evaluation worksheet
⚫ Understand the importance of having good contracts and
managing them well
83
Importance of Project Procurement
Management
⚫ Procurement means acquiring goods and/or services from an
outside source
⚫ Other terms include purchasing and outsourcing
⚫ Experts predict that by the year 2003 the worldwide
information technology outsourcing market will grow to over
$110 billion
84
Why Outsource?
⚫ To reduce both fixed and recurrent costs
⚫ To allow the client organization to focus on its core business
⚫ To access skills and technologies
⚫ To provide flexibility
⚫ To increase accountability
85
Project Procurement
Management Processes
⚫ Project procurement includes the process
required to acquire goods and services for a
project from outside the performing
organization.
⚫ Project procurement management process
includes
⚫ Procurement planning: determining what to
procure and when.
⚫ It involves deciding what to outsource and determining the
type of contract.
⚫ Makes make-or-buy decision
86
PPMP (Cont’d)
⚫ Solicitation planning: documenting
product requirements and identifying
potential sources
⚫ Solicitation: obtaining quotations, bids,
offers, or proposals as appropriate
⚫ Source selection: choosing from among
potential vendors
⚫ Contract administration: managing the
relationship with the vendor
⚫ Contract close-out: completion and
settlement of the contract
87
Project Procurement Management Processes and Key
Outputs
88
Procurement Planning
⚫ Procurement planning involves identifying
which project needs can be best met by
using products or services outside the
organization. It includes deciding
⚫ whether to procure
⚫ how to procure
⚫ what to procure
⚫ how much to procure
⚫ when to procure
89
Collaborative Procurement
⚫ Several organizations, even competitors, have found that it
makes sense to collaborate on procurement for some projects
⚫ Kodak worked with several competitors to develop the
Advantix Advanced Photo System (see What Went Right?)
90
Procurement Planning Tools and
Techniques
⚫ Make-or-buy analysis: determining whether a particular
product or service should be made or performed inside the
organization or purchased from someone else. Often
involves financial analysis
⚫ Experts, both internal and external, can provide valuable
inputs in procurement decisions
91
Make-or Buy Example
⚫ Assume you can lease an item you need for a project for
$150/day. To purchase the item, the investment cost is
$1,000, and the daily cost would be another $50/day.
⚫ How long will it take for the lease cost to be the same as the
purchase cost?
⚫ If you need the item for 12 days, should you lease it or
purchase it?
92
Make-or Buy Solution
⚫ Set up an equation so the “make” is equal to the “buy”
⚫ In this example, use the following equation. Let d be
the number of days to use the item.
$150d = $1,000 + $50d
⚫ Solve for d as follows:
⚫ Subtract $50d from the right side of the equation to get
$100d = $1,000
⚫ Divide both sides of the equation by $100
d = 10 days
⚫ The lease cost is the same as the purchase cost at 10
days
⚫ If you need the item for 12 days, it would be more
economical to purchase it
93
Types of Contracts
⚫ Fixed price or lump sum: involve a fixed
total price for a well-defined product or
service
⚫ Cost reimbursable: involve payment to the
seller for direct and indirect costs
⚫ Unit price contracts: require the buyer to
pay the seller a predetermined amount per
unit of service. Sometimes, it is also known
as Time and Material Contract
94
Cost Reimbursable Contracts
⚫ Cost plus incentive fee (CPIF): the buyer pays
the seller for allowable performance costs plus a
predetermined fee and an incentive bonus
⚫ Cost plus fixed fee (CPFF): the buyer pays the
seller for allowable performance costs plus a fixed
fee payment usually based on a percentage of
estimated costs
⚫ Cost plus percentage of costs (CPPC): the buyer
pays the seller for allowable performance costs
plus a predetermined percentage based on total
costs
95
Contract Types Versus Risk
96
Statement of Work (SOW)
⚫ A statement of work is a description of the work required for
the procurement
⚫ Many contracts, mutually binding agreements, include SOWs
⚫ A good SOW gives bidders a better understanding of the
buyer’s expectations
97
Solicitation Planning
⚫ Solicitation planning involves preparing several
documents:
⚫ Request for Proposals: used to solicit proposals from
prospective sellers where there are several ways to
meet the sellers’ needs
⚫ Requests for Quotes: used to solicit quotes for well-
defined procurements
⚫ Invitations for bid or negotiation and initial contractor
responses are also part of solicitation planning
98
Outline for a Request for Proposal (RFP)
I. Purpose of RFP
II. Organization’s Background
III. Basic Requirements
IV. Hardware and Software Environment
V. Description of RFP Process
VI. Statement of Work and Schedule Information
VII. Possible Appendices
A. Current System Overview
B. System Requirements
C. Volume and Size Data
D. Required Contents of Vendor’s Response to RFP
E. Sample Contract
99
Solicitation
⚫ Solicitation involves obtaining proposals or
bids from prospective sellers
⚫ Organizations can advertise to procure
goods and services in several ways
⚫ approaching the preferred vendor
⚫ approaching several potential vendors
⚫ advertising to anyone interested
⚫ A bidders’ conference can help clarify the
buyer’s expectations
100
Source Selection
⚫ Source selection involves
⚫ evaluating bidders’ proposals
⚫ choosing the best one
⚫ negotiating the contract
⚫ awarding the contract
⚫ It is helpful to prepare formal evaluation
procedures for selecting vendors
⚫ Buyers often create a “short list”
101
Sample Proposal Evaluation Sheet
102
Detailed Criteria for Selecting Suppliers
103
Contract Administration
⚫ Contract administration ensures that the
seller’s performance meets contractual
requirements
⚫ Contracts are legal relationships, so it is
important that legal and contracting
professionals be involved in writing and
administering contracts
⚫ Many project managers ignore contractual
issues, which can result in serious problems
104
Suggestions on Change
Control for Contracts
⚫ Changes to any part of the project need to be
reviewed, approved, and documented by the same
people in the same way that the original part of the
plan was approved
⚫ Evaluation of any change should include an impact
analysis. How will the change affect the scope,
time, cost, and quality of the goods or services
being provided?
⚫ Changes must be documented in writing. Project
team members should also document all important
meetings and telephone phone calls
105
Contract Close-out
⚫ Contract close-out includes
⚫ product verification to determine if all work was
completed correctly and satisfactorily
⚫ administrative activities to update records to reflect
final results
⚫ archiving information for future use
⚫ Procurement audits identify lessons learned in
the procurement process
106
Project Post-Mortem
107
Companies Rarely Perform Post-Project
Audits
⚫ Most companies spend thousands of hours planning
a project, millions of dollars implementing it—and
nothing evaluating and learning from it!
⚫ Few companies examine their completed projects
⚫ in any depth
⚫ When they do conduct post project audits, they are
often superficial
⚫ When project members conduct post project
reviews, they are likely to have preconceived ideas
or even a vested interest in the outcome of the
review
108
The value of a Post Project Appraisal
Group
⚫ Ideally, a post project appraisal group would consist of
members that have no affiliation with the project they
appraise—allowing them to evaluate projects more
objectively
⚫ A post project appraisal group can help a company to learn
from its mistakes and repeat its successes
⚫ Ideally, the group would report directly to the board of
directors or to the firm’s audit committee
109
Conducting Post Project Audits
⚫ An appraisal of a large investment project
can take up to six months to complete
⚫ Because of the time and cost associated with
a full-blown audit, it may make sense to only
review those projects that will contribute to
organizational learning
⚫ Projects that are likely to hold new lessons as
opposed to simply duplicating lessons drawn from
previous projects that have been audited
110
Conducting Post Project Audits
⚫ A complete audit would examine the project
from its conception—before the project
proposal is even written—until after it is
implemented and has become operational
⚫ The post project audit should attempt to
determine the important factors that
contributed to a project’s problems or
success
111
Conducting Post Project Audits
⚫ Initially, the post project appraisal team focuses on
the files to become familiar with the project
⚫ Ideally, the team should then interview everyone
involved in the project
⚫ It is best if two interviewers are present for each interview -
one can ask questions while the other observes and keeps
notes
⚫ Interviews are costly and time consuming but are far more
effective than sending out questionnaires for answering
certain types questions
⚫ After the investigation is completed, a report should
be drafted and circulated
112
Note: See the text itself for full citations.
The International Organization for Standardization
(ISO) defines quality as “the degree to which a set
of inherent characteristics fulfils requirements”
(ISO9000:2000)
Other experts define quality based on:
◦ Conformance to requirements: the project’s processes
and products meet written specifications
◦ Fitness for use: a product can be used as it was intended
◦ IEEE (www.ieee.org)
◦ Language barriers