TODAY'S PAPER | MARCH 18, 2020

COVID-19 & prisoners

Editorial | March 18, 2020

IDEALLY, a prison population should be easier to isolate than the general population
because its interaction with the outside world is limited and can be further restricted.
The Sindh government has taken a number of steps to ensure ‘social distancing’ to
prevent community transmission of COVID-19. However, the provincial prison
authorities have a considerable challenge on their hands. As reported in this paper,
the risk is not from visitors who communicate with the inmates across a glass
partition, meaning there is no physical contact between them. The story also quoted
IGP Prisons, Sindh, as saying that among other measures, he has suggested that where
possible trial proceedings should be conducted via video link. This would address the
risk of prisoners being brought to court in vans so inadequate in number that inmates
often end up being packed together like sardines.

However, the vulnerability lies in the fact that jail staff come into regular contact with those
behind bars. Unless they take proper precautions before they do so, it could ravage the
prison population. Jails in Pakistan are shockingly overcrowded. According to a report
presented in November last year to the Supreme Court, there are 114 prisons across the
country with 77,275 inmates against a combined capacity of 57,742. At the same time, onsite
medical facilities are less than satisfactory. About half the sanctioned posts for jail medical
staff are lying vacant, and medical equipment and ambulances are in short supply. This
makes for an environment highly conducive to the spread of disease. As per recent data
collected by an Islamabad High Court-appointed commission, close to 2,400 prisoners
already suffer from chronic, contagious diseases such as hepatitis, HIV and tuberculosis. It is
therefore vital that preventive measures be put in place immediately such as releasing low-
risk prisoners who are over 65 years of age, minors, petty offenders and those with existing
serious illnesses. By definition, a prison population is a hostage group and the coronavirus
could wreak havoc behind bars.

Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2020

TODAY'S PAPER | MARCH 18, 2020

Rampant child abuse

Editorial | March 18, 2020

EACH year, the child protection advocacy group Sahil announces its findings on the
scale of the abuse that children endure in this country; the data is collected by looking
into newspaper reports on the sexual abuse of children (including rape and attempted
rape), child marriage, and abducted and missing children. In its most recent
statement, foraging through 84 newspapers, Sahil noted that a disturbing 2,846 cases
were reported across the country in the previous year. In other words, approximately
eight children were subjected to abuse each day of 2019, with more than half being
girls (54pc). Prior to that, the figure was even higher at a staggering 3,832 in 2018 — the
same year the body of young Zainab Ansari was found in a garbage heap in Kasur; she
had been brutally raped and murdered by her captor. The incident sparked protests
and demands for accountability across the country. To some degree, it also changed
the way we think about the issue of sexual abuse of children, and finally led to the
passage of the Zainab Alert, Response and Recovery Bill by the National Assembly and
the Senate in recent weeks. While these figures may send a chill down the spine, they
are likely only scratching the surface, as many other cases go unreported. It is only in
recent years that a culture of talking about sexual abuse and exploitation has been
encouraged in Pakistan, and that too only in certain sections of society. Many other
stories will never see the light of day. It may even shock the more naive and insulated
amongst us to learn about the exact scale of the problem, or about the capacity for evil
in ‘ordinary’ people.

Children are one of the most vulnerable groups in any society, lacking the vocabulary, clear
understanding, and often the support they need to confront their abusers. From a young
age, they are taught not to question authority — the adults in their midst — and often suffer
alone, suppressing whatever horrors they are made to endure in silence. Many abusers are
from within the family, or close to the family members, earning and abusing their trust. In
Sahil’s most recent data, the majority of children that were subjected to abuse were between
the ages of six and 15, but there were some even under the age of one. Let the horror of that
figure sink in.

Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2020

TODAY'S PAPER | MARCH 18, 2020

Religious precautions
Editorial | March 18, 2020

WITHOUT a doubt, the novel coronavirus has affected routine life around the globe
like few events in modern history. In a globalised world few countries are left
unaffected, with over 180,000 people infected and more than 7,000 fatalities. Countries
and cities around the world are opting for lockdown to stop the spread of the
contagion, as this is being seen as the best method to prevent more infections. Schools,
offices and commercial centres around the world — including in Pakistan — are closed
or in the process of shutting down, while large gatherings are being discouraged.
Keeping these developments in mind, the issue of congregational prayers needs
serious attention, with the state, ulema and common people all playing their part to
adjust religious rituals in order to curb the spread of COVID-19.

In Pakistan, as elsewhere around the Muslim world, hundreds of people attend daily
prayers at large neighbourhood mosques. This number is in the thousands during Friday
prayers, especially in the larger mosques. Considering the fact that worshippers are in such
close proximity during daily prayers in mosques, it is incumbent on religious leaders and
the state to come up with a strategy that protects people’s health and lives until the threat of
the virus subsides. There have been various suggestions. For example, the Pakistan Ulema
Council has issued a fatwa calling for all political and religious gatherings to be postponed,
Friday prayers to be shortened, and prayers to be held in open spaces etc. However, the
Punjab chief minister assured a delegation of clerics on Monday that mosques would not be
closed in the country’s most populous province. Considering the severity of the situation, the
state must understand the risk to religious congregations, including those who gather in
places of worship.
The state can review how other Muslim countries are dealing with the crisis. Egypt, Iran and
Oman have all suspended Friday prayers while the UAE has temporarily shuttered all places
of worship. The Saudi government, too, has stopped congregational prayers in its mosques
while placing curbs on umrah. In fact, images of the Holy Kaaba without people performing
the tawaf around it have brought home the severity of the crisis. If such stringent measures
have been taken in Islam’s holiest sites, then the authorities here should have no qualms
about altering daily routines temporarily to keep people healthy and possibly save lives. At
the very least, the ulema in Pakistan must consider temporarily limiting the number of daily
worshippers in mosques and suspending congregational prayers on Friday, in keeping with
the example of other Muslim states in these trying times. Decisions need to be taken
rationally, not emotionally, which is why religious scholars and the government must come
up with a plan to address issues of public worship during the virus pandemic without
further delay.

Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2020

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TODAY'S PAPER | MARCH 18, 2020

In crisis mode
Mahir Ali | March 18, 2020

Mahir Ali

AMID the multifarious known unknowns of the coronavirus epidemic, it is fascinating

to see how many media outlets in the West are more focused on the tumbling stock
markets than on the human toll.

Suddenly, socialism by any other name is the flavour of the day, as governments are
importuned to rescue floundering capitalist enterprises. And it doesn’t end there. In certain
particularly shameless ideological circles, there are arguments being made for exploiting
the crisis as an opportunity to reinforce neoliberal economic structures with ‘reforms’
relating to company tax cuts, labour market ‘flexibility’, and even pension schemes.

That, we are unreliably informed, is the way the world will rapidly return to a ‘growth path’
after the looming global recession. The starkly exposed inadequacies of privatised
healthcare are an unlikely topic in such forums, where Mammon is the star, sustained by a
supporting cast not of human beings but ‘clients’ and ‘consumers’. And the very idea of
extending corporate socialism to the rest of humanity is dismissed as a recipe for the end of
the world as we know it. Which, if you think about it, might not be such a bad outcome.

Since last week, Western central banks from the US to the EU, Britain and Australia have
been deploying the tools at their disposal to stave off a market meltdown — thus far to little
effect. The key indices remain in free fall as COVID-19 keeps spreading, with the epicentre
shifting from Asia to Europe.

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Where the disease will spread next is

uncertain.

Like so many other aspects of the highly infectious disease, where it will spread next
remains uncertain. The coronavirus thus far hasn’t reached deep into Africa. Asia, of course,
is a different story.

The rate of infection has been sharply declining in China, wherefrom COVID-19 apparently
sprang. South Korea, the next worst-hit nation, has been remarkably successful in keeping
the fatality rate extremely low. Adhering to advice from the WHO has also paid off for Hong
Kong, Taiwan and Singapore.

Iran has been a different story altogether, with an alarming rate of fatalities relative to the
number of infections, although it’s widely assumed that the actual rate of infections is
considerably higher than the reported figures. The initial insouciance of the regime in
Tehran is one factor in the unfolding tragedy, but Western — primarily American —
sanctions are also taking a toll, not least by limiting the nation’s access to medical supplies.
India and Pakistan have thus far got off pretty lightly, but there are no grounds for
complacency. It’s worth recalling that during the so-called Spanish flu pandemic that
provided a horrific coda to the depredations of the First World War a little more than 100
years ago, western India (a united British colony at the time) accounted for up to 60 per cent
of an estimated global death toll of at least 50 million.

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The mortality rate of the Spanish flu has commonly been compared in recent weeks with
that of the novel coronavirus currently confronting us, boiled down to a figure of 2.5pc. But
it doesn’t require a particularly mathematical mind to figure out that back in 1918, 50
million represented 2.5pc of the world’s population, rather than the one-third of humanity
that is believed to have been infected.

At present, the level of fatalities anyhow seems to vary widely from one country to another,
with Iran faring much worse than South Korea, for instance, and Italy emerging as
something of an outlier in Europe. Amazingly, Italy appears to have been receiving more
assistance from China and Cuba than from the EU. Meanwhile, Jack Ma, the entrepreneur
behind Alibaba and the richest man in Asia, has begun donating test kits to the US as well as
other Western countries.

It is particularly unfortunate that during a crisis such as this, a couple of the most
vulnerable countries boast leaders such as Donald Trump and Boris Johnson. Given its
National Health Service, Britain is not as badly off as the US, where a public health system is
conspicuous by its absence.

A Harvard epidemiologist recently commented that he and his colleagues initially treated
the Johnson government’s faith in ‘herd immunity’ — the hope that if enough people are
exposed to the virus, they will in time develop immunity to it — as a spot of British satire.
The idea of daily media briefings by the British prime minister is also not particularly
reassuring. But it’s no match for Trump’s rapid evolution from ‘who cares?’ to ‘everything is
under control’, when it clearly isn’t, with the US president himself this week advising state
governors to fend for themselves in obtaining test kits.

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But then, he presides over a country whose denizens reportedly have been rushing out to
stock up on assault weapons. Amid all the self-isolation, mandatory quarantining and social
distancing, panic-buying toilet rolls would seem to be the safer option.

[email protected]

Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2020

TODAY'S PAPER | MARCH 18, 2020

That which works

Syed Bakhtiyar Kazmi | March 18, 2020

The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad.

THAT which works, requires not a stamp of approval.

Flattery undeniably massages the ego and is highly addictive, but before we again get
complacent, would it not be wise to hesitate and cast, even furtively, a look at the flatterers,
and read the fine print? Let’s not repeat history; let’s not be fooled again — once bitten twice
shy.

Not very long ago, and the similarities are mind-boggling, during the days of the previous
IMF programme, the usual suspects, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Moody’s, World Bank
and the likes, went gaga over our economy, and the predictions, amongst a lot of other over
praise, were that we would be amongst the top 20 economies by 2030.

Back then, as a fast food chain’s slogan aptly puts it, we were loving it; and then suddenly,
we were not.
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In February 2017, Bloomberg was pleasantly surprised by Pakistan’s economy — yippee! —

but suddenly in May 2018 Bloomberg was of the view that Pakistan’s economy has gone
from bad to worse; Bad! What happened to the pleasant surprise?

Who amongst the outsiders do we believe is

actually right about our economy?

In February 2017, the Wall Street Journal noted that Pakistan’s middle class was soaring as
stability returns, but then in October 2019, it was of the view that the middle-class person is
dying. Seriously, from soaring to dying in two years?

In February 2017, Forbes was of the view that Pakistan was getting ahead of India. In mid-
2019, their headline was ‘IMF will either make or break Khan’s Pakistan’.

And the usual suspects are back, and as usual their timing is impeccable — the ‘IMF reaches
staff-level agreement on the second review of Pakistan’s economic programme under the
Extended Fund Facility’.

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But this time around, would it not be wise to be weary of the flatterers and the traps they
set. Considering the number of friends we have on the globe, it is unlikely that the interests
of those who praise us are aligned with the best interests of Pakistan.

And should we not read the fine print, before we break out the champagne?

Recently, Credit Suisse came out with a glowing report on Pakistan’s economy; albeit they
did spoil the taste a bit by talking about significant challenges that lay ahead. However,
more to the point, substance over form, at the end of it what exactly do they recommend? To
invest in three- and six-month T-bills, and actually caution against investing in exposure
greater than 12 months tenors! So what do they expect will happen after 12 months?

Notably, their recommendations for equity investment are limited to a grand total of five
companies, of which four are banks. And hot guys should not worry, since probably because
of them, Credit Suisse believes the rupee could appreciate by four per cent and that the
Central Bank is likely to keep rates unchanged at 13.25pc.

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One word, wow!

The World Bank report from 2019 — Shaping the Future — is once again making the rounds.
Somewhere in the report the bank believes that we can be a $ 2 trillion economy by 2047. In
2017, a Big 4 accounting firm predicted that Pakistan will be the 20th largest economy in
2030 at $1.86tr; so are we going to have another bust right after that? Duh!

And by the way, the World Bank, to achieve the targeted size suggests that we reduce
making babies by at least half. Side notes also include, greater private investment, improved
firm and labour productivity, more foreign direct investment, higher adult wages, improved
education outcome, and this one is a classic — minimised government borrowing from
banks.

So IMF does not want the government to borrow from the central bank, and the World Bank
wants it to minimise borrowing from banks.

Alarmingly, the two don’t seemingly agree either; the IMF in October 2019 predicted
Pakistan’s economic turnaround from 2020, whilst the World Bank predicted recently that
the economy would languish at 3pc; unless of course, the IMF believes that 3pc is a
turnaround!

By the way if we are relying on others, do a Google search — there are those who believe
our economy is sinking, faces a tough year ahead, and faces headwinds on the path to
recovery. Rationally, we should focus more on the bad news — analyse risks for materiality
and probability, and devise remedial measures. But no, we simply hate criticism, and we
just love the flatterers.

The key question is, who amongst all these outsiders do we believe is actually right about
our economy, and more pertinently, why?

For my money, only if we are producing and exporting more, quantitatively — more cotton
bales, more clothes, more shoes — is when the economy works; other indicators and other
peoples views are an utter waste of time.

That which works, shows!

The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad.

[email protected]

Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2020

TODAY'S PAPER | MARCH 18, 2020

Recalling the 1918 pandemic

Rafia Zakaria | March 18, 2020

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and

political philosophy.

THE year was 1918, before the First World War when the first case of the Spanish flu
was reported from Kansas, United States. By the time it ended about two years later,
the Spanish flu pandemic was believed to have infected at least 500 million people — a
staggering one-third of the population of the whole world. The death toll was said to be
around 50m.

The largest number of lives taken by the Spanish flu was in undivided India. More than 18m
people perished from the disease there — this was the largest number of deaths in a single
country. Mahatma Gandhi also contracted the Spanish flu along with millions of his
compatriots. His experiences and that of the Indian population at large exposed the
inequities of colonial rule under the British.

By the time the Spanish flu struck the subcontinent in the 20th century, the British had ruled
India for one and half centuries, without having invested anything in the country’s health
infrastructure. There was no network of hospitals and no real system that could deliver
healthcare to the millions of ordinary people living under colonial rule. Hence, it is not
surprising there was also no way of saving millions of those who were infected by the lethal
flu.

For the Indian masses, this experience only confirmed the belief that the British were not
benevolent masters. Perceptions that the latter were bringing scientific progress to India
and lifting it out of poverty could not really hold during the pandemic and after it receded.
Indeed, ordinary Indians could ask that if the British were so interested in making things
better for the Indians, why did they fail to provide a basic healthcare system that could have
saved thousands of lives in the land they ruled? The lack of answers from British
representatives was among the factors that sowed the seeds of political discontent in the
subcontinent. Hence, it could be said that the struggle against the British colonialists was
further strengthened by a global pandemic.

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Like the Spanish flu, the novel coronavirus

may also trigger a collapse of the world
order.

The fatality rates and patterns of mortality of the Spanish flu made its ravages even more
poignant. Most of the people it killed were young adults — those who had their lives before
them, those whose loss would be felt the most and the longest. Death often came with what
is called a ‘cytokine storm’, a reaction in which the body’s immune system is overwhelmed,
triggering a shutdown of the organs one after the other. The first to fail was the respiratory
system, the patient could no longer breathe and death would follow soon after.

What paved the way for increasing anti-British sentiment in India also caused political
cataclysms in other parts of the world. According to history books, people of the time would
associate the Spanish flu with the beginning of the First World War in Europe. The casualties
of this world war would merge in popular memory with the casualties of the Spanish flu,
the terrible sadness and feeling of loss of the two fusing into one indistinguishable whole.

Our current historical moment feels just as momentous as the days of the Spanish flu. There
are similarities in the two diseases themselves. The COVID-19 is not just a dangerous strain
of influenza; it also affects the respiratory system. It also provokes a cytokine storm that
overwhelms the respiratory system first. Many patients find it difficult to breathe and have
to be attached to a ventilator. Reports from the Netherlands and South Korea show that
patients can remain on the ventilator for several weeks before they are able to breathe on
their own. That is, if they survive. Many don’t and many others will not. The novel
coronavirus has now spread to most countries of the world. The doubling of cases every few
days has meant that the world at large has been forced to introspect and change its own
behaviour because of the inefficacy of the existing containment measures.

As epidemiologists are fond of telling us, the life of a virus is the behaviour of the virus and
the behaviour of the host. Since the virus’s aptitude for surviving on surfaces and infecting
sometimes without causing symptoms cannot currently be treated, human beings have had
to change their behaviour instead. It is currently believed that if a large enough number of
the human population alters its behaviour through self-isolation, there will be no new hosts
for the virus. If there are no new hosts then the spread of the coronavirus, which has
proven to be a master at travelling fast and furiously, can finally be stopped.

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Then there is the question of politics. The Spanish flu pandemic was closely followed by a
world war and sweeping transformational change all over the globe. Similarly, the novel
coronavirus will also claim its casualties in the collapse of systems and beliefs that have
existed unchallenged for decades or centuries. We might witness the fall of governments
and the fall of great world leaders.

It is a historic time, it is an uncertain time, and it is a deadly time. It is also a time that is
desperate for human solidarity. If humans, particularly those who are young and healthy,
alter their behaviour despite knowing that the virus is likely to spare them, then the old, the
weak and the infirm have a chance at survival. It is a tall order for a world that pivots on
self-interest. But humankind has accomplished great things in the past. It has survived and
it has endured. Now is the time to remind oneself and everyone else of that truth, that
possibility, so that all may endure the darkness of the moment.

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.

[email protected]

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Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2020

TODAY'S PAPER | MARCH 18, 2020

Crisis of leadership
Zahid Hussain | March 18, 2020

The writer is an author and journalist.

THE crisis of leadership in the country has once again been exposed — this time on
account of the coronavirus pandemic. More needs to be done to reassure the nation in
times of crises than just tweeting messages of comfort and calling for prayers. The
decision to hold cabinet meetings through video link only serves to trivialise an
extremely serious situation that requires a far more prudent approach.

The captain has yet again failed the leadership-in-a-crisis test. Instead of leading from the
front, the prime minister has so far taken a back seat as the country faces one of its worst
crises in recent years. One is not sure whether it is incompetence or apathy or a
combination of both.

Most countries facing a similar situation have their leaders directly dealing with the
problem, but this has not been the case here. Now we are told that he is personally
monitoring the situation and getting daily briefings on it. Last night, he finally addressed the
nation. In a recent interview to the Associated Press the prime minister said that he spends
most of his time consulting experts on how to deal with the coronavirus. But is it enough?
Has even a meeting of all provincial chief ministers, who are left to deal with the situation
on their own, been called?

Primarily, it is the responsibility of the federal government to take the lead and formulate a
national response to the crisis. Despite the sharp increase in the number of cases, there is
still no effective coordination between the federal and provincial governments. Surely, this
has contributed to the failure to contain the problem. Nothing could be more pitiable at this
stage than the lack of consensus between the federal and provincial governments over the
severity of the crisis. Even the figures are disputed.

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Understating the numbers and downplaying

the severity of the pandemic is not going to
help.

Despite the fact that the warning signs were there for a long time, the federal government
responded very slowly. It was only last week that the National Security Council finally met
to discuss the crisis. And still there is no coherent policy to deal with the enormous
challenges that lie ahead. It is not just about stopping the spread of the virus, but also the
long-term economic and social impact of the crisis, one that has global dimensions.

In an interview with AP, the prime minister said the country did not have the capacity and
resources to deal with the situation if the coronavirus becomes uncontrollable. He may be
right; but then there is an even greater need to stop the spread of the virus before it is too
late. Dealing with the coronavirus must be the main priority of the state at this point and
resources must be diverted to deal with the pandemic.

The first coronavirus case in Pakistan was detected a month ago and now the number of
cases is in the hundreds. But the federal government lived in a state of denial. There was no
sense of urgency until some days ago when WHO declared a pandemic. It took time to close
our borders and flights coming from areas most affected by the virus.

Most of the cases so far are among pilgrims and other travellers returning from Iran and
other countries. Initially, the pilgrims from Iran were kept under observation at the Taftan
border crossing in Balochistan. Their number was in the thousands but there were not
enough resources available for the provincial government to test all.

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A large number of those who were allowed to leave the Taftan border camps later tested
positive for the coronavirus. One must give credit to the Sindh government for setting up
facilities where the returnees were isolated and tested for the virus. Testing is perhaps the
reason why Sindh has confirmed the highest number of cases so far. The spread of the virus
could have been contained had there been better coordination between the federal and
provincial governments. The federal government failed to provide any help despite calls
from the provincial government.

There were no proper facilities provided by the federal agencies at major airports to screen
passengers flying back home from affected areas until recently. It is commendable that the
Sindh provincial health department made more effective arrangements at the airport in
Karachi.
It took a while for Punjab and KP, both led by the PTI, to wake up to the crisis. Punjab
declared a health emergency only last week. It is quite surprising that the number of cases
in the province has remained low, though that is changing as the results of the tests carried
out on pilgrims returning from Iran show that several may have the infection. The situation
in KP is not very different.

Understating the numbers and downplaying the severity of the pandemic is not going to
help. It is true that there is no need to push the panic button, but apathy is more dangerous.
Transparency and reporting the facts helps in dealing with the challenge more effectively.

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It is understandable that with limited facilities for screening available in the country it is
not easy to get a clear picture, but there is no point in understating the facts before us. This
is a global problem and needs a holistic approach. Despite the severity of the crisis, the
government has not taken all the measures required to contain the spread of the virus.

A large number of Muslim countries have banned religious congregations and collective
prayers in order to save the population from the virus, but we are still hesitant to enforce
the restrictions. Giving in to pressure, the Punjab government has assured the clerics that
mosques will not be closed.

In order to deal with the enormous challenges, the government needs to take all
stakeholders on board and make some tough decisions. The government must declare a
state of emergency and also mobilise the armed forces. More importantly, the prime
minister needs to show statesmanship in this time of national crisis and take all political
forces along with him. A national crisis requires a collective response. Will the prime
minister transcend political differences and provide leadership at this critical time?
The writer is an author and journalist.

[email protected]

Twitter: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2020