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Crime Analysis: From Concept to Reality

0 5 Em 3
1 4 t
WHEN? S F 8 WHY?
WHERE? K r WHAT?
WHO? HOW?

By

Steven Gottlieb and Shel Arenberg

Edited By
Stephen Busack, Ph.D.

Office of Criminal Justice Planning Edition

Crime Analysis: From Concept to Reality
By

Steven Gottlieb and Shel Arenberg

Edited By
Stephen Busack, Ph.D.

OFFICE OF
CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNING

Prcwiding Support to Criminal Justice Agencies,

Victim Service Organkatioru, and Crime Prevention Programs

THE PREPARATION OF THIS PUBLICATION WAS FINANCIALLY ASSISTED THROUGH GRANT AWARO NUMBER
CASSO' 6350-00 FROM THE CALIFORNIA OFFICE OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNING (OCJP). THE OPINIONS,
FINDINGS, AND CONCLUSIONS IN lHlS PUBUCATION ARE THOSE Of THE AlffifORS AND NOT NECESSARILV THOSE
OF OCJP. OCJP RESERVES A ROYALTY-FREE, NONEXCLUSIVE, AND IRREVOCABLE LICENSE TO REPRODUCE,
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MAY BE OBTAINED FROM OCJP UPON PAYMENT OF lHE COST OF REPRODUCING THE MATERIAlS.
Crime Analysis: From Concept to Reality
By

Steven Gottlieb and Shel Arenberg

Edited By
Stephen Busack, Ph.D.

Offfee of Criminal Jus~tiee Planning Edition

137374
U.S. Department of Justice
National Institute of ,Iustlce

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THE PREPARATION OF THIS PUBLICATION WAS FINANCIALLY ASSISTED THROUGH GRANT AWARD NUMBER CA 86
01 6360 00 FROM THE OFFICE OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNING (OC.IP). THE OPINIONS, FINDINGS, AND
CONCLUSIOtlS IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHORS AND NOT NECESSARILY THOSE OF OCJP. OCJP
RESERVES A ROYAL TY·FREE, NONEXCLUSIVE, AND IRREVOCABLE LICENSE TO REPRODUCE, PUBLISH. AND USE
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE

PREFACE v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS viii
INTRODUCTION 2

PART ONE: DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF CRIME 4

ANALYSIS PROGR.AMS

CHAPTER 1 CRIME ANALYSIS: AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 6

CHAPTER 2 DEFINITION, TYPES, FUNCTIONS AND APPLICATIONS OF 12
CRIME ANALYSIS PROGRAMS
Deiinltion 12
Types 12
Tactical Crime Analysis 12
Strategic Crime Analysis 13
Administrative Crime Analysis 13
Functions 13
Applications 14
Identification of Evolving or Existing Crime Patterns 14
Forecasting Future Crime Occurrences 15
Target Profile Analyses 17
Investigative Leads For Investigators 17
Support Data For Crime Prevention Programs 18
Assisting in Case Clearance Processes 18
Data to Support Resource Allocation and Departmental 19
Planning Activities
Operational Data for Deployment Planning and 19
Budgeting Activities
CHAPTER 3 PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT ISSUES 22
Timing of Implementation 22
Program Planning 22
Executive Commitment 23
Executive Task Force 23
Inlradepartmenlal User Committee 24
Interdepartmental User Committee 25
CHAPTER 4 DEVELOPMENT OF A CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT 28
Placement Within the Organization 28
Physical Placement of the Unit 28
Supervision of Crime Analysis Personnel 29
Training of Crime Analysis Personnel 29
Staffing 30
Sworn vs. Non-Sworn Personnel as Analysts 31
Hours 01 Operation 32
Open Door Policy 33
Equipment and Supplies 33
CHAPTER 5 THE CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS 37
Data Collection 37
Source Documents
Source Document Modifications 37
Data Element Requirements 38
Report Formats 38
Intradepartmental Impact 47
Interdepartmental Impact 48
Data Quality Issues 48
Internal Information Sources 51
External Sources of Information 55
Data Collation 57
The File Development Process 57
Manual vs. Automated Data Collation Methods 60
Data Collation Planning Considerations 62
Data Analysis 63
Types of Data Analysis 63
Types of Crime Patterns 63
Crime Pattern/Series Detection - Manual Techniques 65
Crime Pattern/Series Detection - Automated fechnlques 67
Target Profile Analysis 72
Forecasting Future Criminal Occurrences 73
Suspec~ Identification 73
Case Matching 74
Data Dissemination 74
Goals of Data Dissemination 75
Product Development Planning Considerations 75
Types of Products 78
Product Development - Technical Considerations 84
Product Distribution Techniques 85
Feedback 88
Need for Feedback 88
Formal Feedback Methods 88
Informal Feedback Methods 92
Evaluation 93
•
CHAPTER 6 VOLUNTEERS IN CRIME ANALYSIS PROGRAMS 96
Job Duties 96
Volunteer Recruitment 96
Interviewing Candidates 101
Backgrol.lnd Investigations 107
Orientation Training 108
Supervision 108
Recognition 108
CHAPTER 7 DEVFlQPMENT OF A MANAGEMENT 'OF PATROL
OPERATIONS (MPO) PROGRAM 114
History 114
Alternative Approaches in Police Responsp. 11 7
Implementation of Call Screening'Call Prrorltlzation Dispatch Procedures 117
Utilization of Non-Sworn Personnel 117
Utilization 01 Other Alternative Response Techniques l' 8
Management of the Patrol Force 118
Needs Identification 119
Creation of a Manpower Distribution Siudy 120
Creation of a Worktoad Anatysis Study 122
Directed Patrol Planning 122
Role of the Crime Analyst in IIle MPO Process 123
Officer Training 124
Selling the .program 125
Sample MPO Memorandum 126

CHAPTER 8 DEVELOPMENT OF A MANAGEMENT OF CRtMINAL INVESTIGATIONS

(MCI) PROGRAM 131
Expansion of the Role of Patrol in the Preliminary InvestIgation Process 131
Implementation of Case Screening Procedures 133
Implementation of Continuing Investigations Management Procedures 134
Enhancement of Police/Prosecutor Relatronshlps 135
Monitoring of the Investigations System 135
Role of the Crime Anatyst in the MCI Process 136
CHAPTER 9 AUTOMATION ISSUES 139
Request for Proposats 149

Problem Statement 149

Statement of the Overall Project ObjectIVes 150
Detailed System ReqUIrements 150
Scope of Services to be Provided by the Contractor 152
Proposal and Contract Requirements 152
Evaluation Criteria and Schedule 153
Proposal Form and Content 154
Detailed Problem Statement and Operational Analysis 158
Background Statistics 159
Facility Description 159
Staffing 159
CHAPTER 10 OVERCOMING RESiSTANCE TO THE CRIME ANALYSIS
PROGRAM 161
Program Misconceptions 161
"The 'Here We Go Again' Syndrome- 161
-Is This Productivity Measurement in Disguise?- 162
-Computers Will Replace Us AIr 163
-Civilians Are C-,oing to Tell Me How to Do My Job- 164
"The Program Will Take Away OJr Freedom- 166
-Everything's Going to Change Around Here- 168
Summary 170

PART TWO: STATISTICAL METHODS FOR CRIME ANALYSTS 172

CHAPTER 11 STATISTICS ANt) THE CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS 174

Early Statistics 175
Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 175
Statistical Anat'/sis Requirements 176
Statistics and Co~ters 176
Overcoming Numerophobia 177
CHAPTER 12 GETTING STARTlED 179
The Frequency Table 179
Grime Series and Patterns 185
An Exe"1'iary Data Search 187
Graphing 188
The Bar Graph 190
The Histogram 191
The Frequency Polygon 191
Smol::lthlng 194
The EUvariate graph 195
Data Prel!ientaUon 200
CHAPTER 13 THE BASICS 204
The Meanl 204
The Medic\n 204
The Mode 206
----------

Which Average tlO Use 206

A Note About Dropping Highs and Lows 208
Measures of Vari,ability 208
The Range 208
Mean Averagi!t Deviation 209
Standard Deviation 210
Seasonal Averaging 213
Moving Averages 216
Simple Movi~, Average 216
Weighted Moving Average 217
Exponential Moving Aver~ 219
Compari~ Data 220
Rates 221
Indexes 223

CHAPTER 14 ANALYZING PAirTERNS OF TIME 226

Exact TIme Crimes (Not AroUnd Midnight) 226
Exact TIme Crimes I:Around Midnight) 228
TIme Span Crimes 231
Midpoint Analysis 231
Equal Opportunity Method 233
Weighted Methol(j 237
Mixed Data 240
Some Thoughts on tile Ouantity of Data 240
CHAPTER 15 ANALYZING PAn'ERNS OF LOCATIOP4 244
Mapping Techniques 244
Graphical Analysls 245
StatistiCal Geographical Analysb 248
CHAPTER 16 RELATIONS AND PREDICTIONS 255
The Correlation Coefficient 255
The Scatter Diagram 257
Computing the Correlation Coefficient 257
Cautionary Note (Bew,are of the Cause and Effect Syndrome) 263
Linear Predic1lons (Pmdlctlng with a Straight Une) 263
Range of Estim .. te 268
Seasonal Averaging· Method (2) 270
CHAPTER 17 ON CALCULATOR!; AND SOFTWARE 275
BIBLIOGRAPHY 27.9
APPENDIX CRIME ANALYSIS FORMS AND PRODUCTS 282
---------~--~- -----~-------T----~~- . - - - - - -

PREFACE
PREFACE

Change is an inevitable consequence of societal progression and

neither people nor institutions are immune from its influence. In
today's world, the question is not whether change should be avoided
or even resisted, for these adaptive strategies will eventually be
overpowered by the relentlessness of change. Ruther, the question
which must be asked and answered is how to most effectively prepare
for and manage change to ensure that it promotes positive outcomes.
The methods by which people a~d organizations choose to cope with
change will ultimately determine "t.heir survival or demise.

Increased populations, technolog.ical advancements and heightened

competition for economic resources have created new social problems
which beg for resolution. Further, many of these changes in the
human condition have brought new challenges to the doorstep of the
law en'forcement profession,

The protection of life and property has always been the primary goal
of law enforcement. Philosophies regarding how this goal could best
be achieved however, have changed throughout the years. lintil the
1970s, many police administrators felt that the adequate suppression
of crime and the apprehension of criminals could be accomplished only
by the increased acquisition of personnel and equipment. The visible
presence of the police, it was believed, was the key to reducing
criminal activity,

Since the 19705, however.: many studies conducted throughout the

country have demonstrated that mere numbers of police officers are
not enough to suppress crime in our communities. Rather. it is their
planned deployment that makes crime suppression an obtain~\ble goal.

Crime analysis programs make it possible for police aclministrators to

objectively determine the nature of criminal activity in tht!ir
jurisdictions and to develop directed patrol and tactical action plans to
effectively combat it. At the same time. crime analysis units can

v
provide the information needed to ensure that we are using limited
resources to their best advantage.

Crime analysis is still an emerging field within the law enforcement

community. As a result, there is little information available to
acquaint law enforcement personnel with the operation of a crime
analysis unit. Most crime analysts and supervisors of crime analysis
units have had to learn the job without the help of formal training.

This book has been written as a guide to establishing a crime analysis

program and was designed to be of assistance to new crime analysts
and their supervisors. It presents not only the concepts involved in
crime analysis, but a "hands-on" approach to determining crime
patterns, forecasting crime occurrences and developmg the processes
necessary to provide a wealth of support services to patrol and
investigative personnel.

The authors are well qualified to write this book. Steve Gottlieb has
spent over twenty years in the law enforcement profession and, as
Special Services Manager of the Chino Police Department, has been
responsible for the operation of our crime a~alysis program since
1982. Shel Arenberg is a private consultant to law enforcement and is
a nationally recognized expert in the fields of crime analysis and
intelligence analysis. Both of these gentlemen have taught crime
analY3is classes within California and throughout the nation.

We are extremely pleased with the benefits we have derived from the
implementation of a crime analysis program within the Chino Police
Department. Our adoption of the program has helped us meet the
challenges presented us by the changing world in which we live. We
hope that you, the readers of this Dook, will be similarly succesful in
your efforts.

James E. Anthony
Chief of Police '.
Chino Police Department

vi
--- ---------~-- ---------~ ----

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ACKNOWLEDGME:\TS

\Ve. the authors of this manual, have tuught introductory crime

analysis classes for a number of years. The time usually made
available for us to present our courses was often less than the time
required to master basics of the subject. Because most course
attendees were new to crime analysis and to quantitative analysis,
many requected that we present our lectures in a "how to do it"
reference guide. This book is our way of saying thanks for the
encouragemen 1.

Preparation of this book evolved from an earlier work of the authors

entitled A Cookbook of Procedures for Crime Analysts. Financially
supported by a grant from the Office of Criminal Justice Planning
(OelP), that volume primarily dealt with the statistical aspects of the
crime analysis process. The current work, Crime Analysis: From
Concept to Reality, presents a significant amount of program
information as well as statistical material that we hope will assist
readers in developing, implementing and operating their crime
analysis programs. We thank OCJP for their original fiscal support, for
giving us the freedom to write as we saw fit and for allowing us to
express our opinions as our experience dictated. With such freedom
comes responsibility. We are totally responsible for the contents of
this book including all technical, stenographic or judgmental errors.
We thank OClP for its support and confidence in us.

We also wish to thank Louisa Chabot, Roz Hodge. Lori Douglas. Patrick
Northam, Jim Coyne and Dick Dauphin, crime analysts from the Los
Angeles County, California, Sheriff's Department. for consenting to
review our initial work. Their comments led to the inclusion of much
of the new material which is presented in this book.

This book is but another step on the authors' learning curve regarding
crime analysis. Other agencies supported us while we took our first
faltering steps and they deserve mention for being there when we
most needed help and encouragement. Without such support. this
manual would not have been written.

Thp. California Crime Technological Research Foundation presented the

first n~!jonwide training program in crime analysis in 1974, th..lnks to
a grant from the U.S. Department of Justice. Some of the material in
this book came from that program, which was presented by a numher

vi ii
of trainers including one of the authors. Since the conclusion of the
national effort, the California Department of Justice, supported by the
California Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training has
provided similar training for crime analysts throughout the Golden
State. Both of the authors are still very much involved with this
effort.

We tried to keep this manual "practical" and attempted to avoid as

much theory as possible. One problem instructors have is their need
to justify their choice of technique. We were fortunate to have three
pragmatic overseers to keep us on the "straight and narrow path" of
practicality. Dr. Raphael Dubrovner of the System Development
Corporation taught us the gentle art of teaching mathematics to non-
mathematicians. Dr. William Herrmann of the RAND Corporation, and a
retired member of the Los Angele~ Police Department, patiently
helped us build the bridge from alcane formulas to "on-the-street"
utility to the patrol and investigative officers of today's law
enforcement community.

Chief James Anthony of the Chino, California, Police Department

deserves special mention. He kept reminding us, by his editing and
e
over-coffee conversations, that police personnel-from top to bottom-
want crime analysts to give them useful insights. Providing the
technical rationale behind an answer is nice, but the "bottom line" is
crime suppression and criminal apprehension. With today's workload
of cases and calls-for-service, there isn't much time for anything else.
The authors thank Chief Anthony for his valuable input and insistence
on practicality. We hupe our readers benefit from his patience. We
know we did.

Thanks also go to Captain Jerry Stephens of the Chino, California, Police

Department. Captain Stephens allowed us to invade his domain and
was kind enough to keep our interruptions to a minimum. We are
grateful for his interest in us and this project and for giving us the
time and materials needed to accomplish our objectives.

We are also indebted to Fred Cotton of SEARCH Group, Inc. for his
insight and generous donation of material regarding automation ...
processes. Fred provided us with the information presented in
Chapter 9 of this book and we sincerely acknowledge his contribution.

Appreciation is similarly extended to Crime Analyst Dale Brearcliffe of

the Livermore, California, Police Department. Dale provided us with

IX
his monograph entitled Time Series Analysis Methods (September
1987) which was originally presented to the Bay Area Crime Analysts
Association. Dale's research methods were used ~n the preparation of
Chapter 13 of this book and we thank him for shar1.ng them with us.

We also wish to thank the people who graciously provided their time
and expertise in the preparation of this material. Alan Bediamol,
Crime Analyst for the Chino, California, Police Department took our
hand-drawn sketches and transformed them into the readable graphs
that have been used throughout the book. Alan also provided us with
some of the crime analysis products that appear in the Appendix of
the book. We appreciated his generous assistance to this effort.

Other graphs, forms and products were given to us by Dwight

Tompkins, Senior Crime Analyst of the Long Beach, California, Police
Department; Sgt. Ed Ridenour of the Stanislaus County, California,
Sheriffs Department; Lt. Doug Clements of the San Diego County,
California, Sheriff's Department; Kurt Johnson. Serious Habitual
Offender Crime Analyst of the Chino, California, Police Department~ and
Miles· Wagner, Crime Analyst and Lt. Patrick Crowe of the Colton,
California, Police Department. We express our sincere appreciation to
each of you for your contribution to this work.

We also extend our appreciation to Jessie Pryce, Special Services Aide

for the Chino, California, Police Department for the clerical assistance
provided the authors. Jessie had the unrewarding task of threading
her way through numerous revisions of this book and we are grateful
her diligence.

Finally, we entend our deepest gratitude to our editor, Dr. Stephen

Busack, of the EI Cerrito, California, Police Department. Dr. Busack
burned much midnight oil on our behalf and went throu'gh many red
pens in the process of editing our material. We are indebted to him
for the expertise he brought to this project and for his unwavering
support of our efforts.

Steven Gottlieb

Shel Arenberg

x
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION

Although the term "crime analysis" has been known to law enforce-
ment since 1963, the incorporation of crime analysis units into the
mainstream of police operations is still a relatively new phenomenon.
As such, compared with the functions of patrol or investigations. little
has been written to acquaint crime analysts with the tasks they need
to perform when assigned to these units. Even less has been written
about how these tasks should be performed.

The purpose of this book is to provide this information to crime

analysts and supervisors of crime analysis units. Hopefully it will
serve as a reference guide for those individuals who have been given
the responsibility of analyzing crime and for passing on the results of
their analyses to patrol, investigations. and management staff.

The information we wish to share is that which has been presented to

students in our crime analysis classes around the country. And in
writing this book, we envisioned a training session in which the reader
was present with the authors in a discussion of crime analysis con-
cepts and techniques. In keeping with this "vision"-and to m:r.ke
things as simple as possible-we chose to use a writing style that is
rather colloquial. Sentences like, "The authors recommend that the
reader determine what data he or she will need to collect," have been
omitted in favor of the more conversational "We recommend that you
determine .... "

The first chapters of the book discuss the history of crime analysis and
its place in the modern police organization. the functions of a crime
analysis unit. the role of the crime analyst, and how to perform the
tasks necessary to be successful on the job. Data collection. collation.
analysis. distribution, feedback and evaluation processes are covered
in detail as are the issues involved in the development and
implementation of a crime analysis program. Management of Patrol
Operations Program and Management of Criminal Investigations
Program.

Latter chapters deal with a description of the statistical techniques

which must be used by the analyst to properly interpret data. The use
of statistical methods-beyond the computation of simple percentages-
will enable you to log i ca Ily derive your conclusions and thereby
greatly enhance your ability to provide solid information to your
customers.

2
.-------------------------------------

Finally, the book has been designed to give you a hasic overview of
the crime analysis process. It will not tell you everything you need to
know about this field. But it will get you up and running and give you
the information you need to provide a high level of quality service to
your user groups.

Best wishes for much success!!

3
------ --

Part One:

DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION

OF CRIME ANAL YSIS PROGRAMS
CHAPTER 1

CRIME ANAL YSIS: AN HISTORICAL

." PERSPECTIVE
.. t.

e-
CRIME ANALYSIS: AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

The formalized processes of analyzing crime and establishing

specialized units to perform these tasks are relatively new to law
enforcement. If you are just beginning to develop a crime analysis
program, you may be asked to acquaint your agency's personnel with
the history of this most interesting field. The following material is
provided to assist you with such a presentation.

Analyzing crime to identify suspects and/or crime patterns can be

traced to the feudal period of England. Populations of geographic
areas were small, people knew each other well, and villagers often
spent an entire lifetime in the same village or town. The local con-
stable knew who the troublemakers were, where they lived, and had a
good working knowledge of how they committed their crimes.

By the late 1800s, crime in Europe had risen to the point that it
seemed only Sherlock Holmes, the fictional detective created by Sir
Arthur Conan Doyle, was capable of ferreting out the criminals.
Holmes' ability to scientifically analyze bits and pieces of information
made him a legendary hero; the real police officer was viewed as a
buffoon. The reason, of course, was that use of scientific methods to
study and analyze crime was not as advanced in reality as it was in
the imaginative mind of Mr. Holmes' creator.

As the years rolled on, new scientific discoveries were made and many
came to be of significant benefit to law enforcement. Physical
examination of a wide variety of materials enabled police officials to
place suspects at scenes of crimes. At the same time, the developing
field of psychology began to explain the nature of human personality
and the establishment of habit patterns. These and other outgrowths
of scientific inquiry allowed law enforcement to accurately determine
the nature of criminal activity, predict its future occurrence, and iden-
tify its perpetrators.

August Vollmer, Chief of the Berkeley, California, Police Department in

the early 1900s, introduced the English technique of systematic
classification of known offender modus operandi (MO) to the United
States. Vollmer developed the technique of examining recorded calls
f)f service to perform beat analyses and was instrumental in
promoting the use of "pin" or "spot" maps for visually identifying areas
where crime and calls were concentrated. In his essay entitled liThe

6
Police Beat, /I Vollmer offered the following statement regarding the
use of crime analysis to support police operations:

"On the assumption of regularity of crime and similar

occurrences, it is possible to tabulate these occurrences
within a city and thus determine the points which have
the greatest danger of such crimes and what points have
the least danger."

Another forerunner in crime analysis was O. W. Wilson. Wilson

expanded Vollmer's beat analysis technique to include hazard
formulas, or the assignment of weighting factors to various categories
of crimes and service calls, in an effort to provide a systematic ap-
proach to the allocation of patrol resources. It was, however, not until
the second edition of Wilson's Police Administration (1963) that first
mention was made of the term "crime analysis."

Wilson (1963) identified crime analysis as an essential police function

and recommended that a crime analysis section be created within
planning and research divisions of large police departments.! The
crime analysis section was clearly envisioned as being responsible for
the systematic examination of "daily reports of serious crimes in order
to determine the location, time, speeial characteristics, similarities to
other criminal events and various significant facts that may help to
identify either a criminal or the existence of a pattern of criminal
activity."

By the late 1960s, crime analysis units began to be established in the

nation's larger police organizations. These units were primarily re-
sponsible for the detection of criminal modus operandi, the discovery
of crime patterns within geographical areas, and the determination of
relationships between known offenders and crimes. 2

The expansion of crime analysis was further influenced through

development of the Integrated Criminal Apprehension Program (leAP)

1 Experience gained over the years suggests that crime analysis units s h 0 U, d
n.o t be assigned to planning. research or other administrative divisions. In-
stead. it is highly recommended that they be assigned to patrol or investigative
divisions and that they provide strategic and tactical action suppon-as opposed
to administrative support-to their agencies.
2 Richard G. Grassie, ~ .• Ctime Analysis Executive Manual (U.S. Depanment of
Justice. Law Enforcement Assistance Administration. April 1977). pp. 1-8
through 1-11.

7
by the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration in the 1970s.
Pioneered by President Richard M. Nixon, this federal organization was
created by the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act and the
program was founded on the belief that many crime problems can be
attributed to persons who are habitual, and thus career criminals or, at
the very least. repeat offenders.

Founders of the leAP Program recognized that people who had de~
voted themselves to a life of crime (career criminals) would frequently
come into contact with law enforcement officials. Sometimes they
would be arrested and an arrest report would be completed. On other
occasions they might be the subject of a field interview (FI) or receive
a traffic citation. In each case, officers would include in their
paperwork a physical description of the person, his or her address, a
description of a vehicle (if appropriate), and a notation as to how the
crime was committed (MO). Until the age of computerization, however,
this information was of little value since everything pertaining to the
individual was generally filed according to the subject's last name.

Officers could respond to crime scenes and be given suspect

descriptions but, since they had no name. officers had no way of
accessing departmental records for possible matches. They could
detect definite MO patterns br~t, without a suspect's name, could not
search the files for previously arrested persons who had used those
same MO patterns.

leAP sought to redesign recordskeeping systems of police agencies and

better use the vast amounts of data collected by records bureaus. As a
result of these changes, police personnel today can record physical
descriptions of suspects and have names of suspects returned to them
by computer. Likewise, MO patterns can be entered .and matched
against those used by suspects who have previously been arrested.

leAP also recognized that repeat offenders are often creatures of

habit. They frequently commit crimes during the same times. days of
the week, or by the same method. ICAP therefore recommended that
crime analysis units be established to monitor trends and patterns.
and to report same to patrol and investigative personnel. It was
further recommended that the patrol force develop directed patrol or
tactical action plans to deal with problems brought to their attention
by the crime analysis unit.

8
These concepts, along with others derived from the famed Kansas City
Police Department study of the 1970s, dealt the death blow to the
time-honored tradition of fielding police units under the "random
patrol" theory. For years it was believed that the visible presence of
police officers was a significant deterrent to crime and the best way
to cure crime problems was to hire more police officers. This was an
expensive belief to maintain; more importantly, it proved to be false.

The Kansas City study told us that it was not how many officers an
agency had, but what they did with those officers, that was of greatest
importance. If an agency had its officers deployed on the east side of
town while all its crooks were on the west side, little in the way of
crime reduction would be accomplished. The study, therefore,
concluded that best use of the patrol force was achieved when officers
were placed in the right areas at the right times. The crime analysis
unit subsequently came to be viewed as that component of a
department that could be of significant assistance to patrol
supervisors.

As an increasing number of agencies began to accept this concept,

additional evidence accumulated to suggest that random patrol
equaled random results. Instead of focusing on the acquisition of re-
sources, concentration was redirected to proper allocation of resources.
No longer would officers hop into a patrol car, drive around for thirty
years, and then retire. From this point on, supervisors would dire ct
their activities from information provided to them by the crime
analysis unit.

Under the leAP Program, this concept fell under the heading of the
"Management of Patrol Operations." Additionally, the Program sup-
ported other changes which also led to better utilization of patrol re-
sources. Call prioritization systems, mail-in report systems, and the
use of non-sworn community services officers to perform non-
hazardous duties were employed to allow officers to concentrate on
preventing crime and apprehending criminals.

Also under ICAP, "Management of Criminal Investigations (MCI)"

sought to improve the quality of case preparation, further develop
police and prosecutor relations, identify career criminals, and increase
the number and proportion of career criminals arrested. At the same
time, MCI was designed to provide investigations the same type of ef-
ficiency given to patrol managers. ICAP recommended enhanced case
screening procedures and the incorporation of solvability factors into

9
preliminary crime reports. Patrol officers were encouraged to fully
participate in initial investigations by obtaining most information
which could have been obtained during the officers' first victim
and/or witness contacts. Finally, the ICAP Program recommended that
crime analysis units provide investigators with suspect leads, MO
pattern analyses and other such aids to assist the agency with
identifying criminals and possible future locations of criminal activity.

The Law Enforcement Assistance Administration was discontinued

during the Carter years and federal funding for law enforcement
programs ceased. Many states, impressed with the results of the leAP
Program, made stat.e funds available to local agencies that wished to
implement ICAP's strategies. California for example, adopted the
Program in 1978 and renamed it the "Career Criminal Apprehension
Program" (C-CAP). C.. CAP is presently administrated by the Office of
Criminal Justice Planning and provides grant funding to law
enforcement agencies that wish to improve operations through use of
the concepts explain(~d above.

State funds are not, however, necessary for beginning crime analysis
programs. Many ,lgencies have developed them without external
fiscal assistance. No matter how they are funded, and no matter what
name they are given, these programs all share the same basic
objectives-to provide a sophisticated means for identifying and
apprehending criminals and for improving utilization of the
Department's resources.

10
CHAPTER 2

DEFINITION, TYPES, FUNCTIONS AND

APPLICA TIONS OF CRIME ANAL YSIS PROGRAMS
llf;FINITION. TVpES. fUNCTIONS AND APPLICATIONS
OF CRIME ANALYSIS

DEFI~ITION:

The Law Enforcement Assistance Administration's Integrated Criminal

Apprehension Program (lCAP) defined the crime analysis function as:

"... a set of systematic, analytical processes directed at

providing timely and pertinent information relative to crime
patterns and trend correlations to assist operational and
administrative personnel in planning the deployment of
resources for the prevention and suppression of criminal
activities, aiding the investigative process, and increasing
apprehensions and the clearance of cases. Within this
context, crime analysis supports 'a number of department
functions, including patrol deployment. special operations
and tactical units, investigations, planning and research,
crime prevention and administrative services (budgeting and
program planning).3"

TYPES:

"Crime analysis" often refers to three different types of processes:

• Tactical Crime Analysis

41 Strategic Crime Analysis
~ Administrative Crime Analysis

Tactical Crime Analysis:

The tactical crime analyst provides information to assist operations

personnel in the identification of specific crime problems and in the
arrest of criminal offenders. Crime analysis data is used to promme a
quick response to field situations.

3 !.hl.Q.... p. 1.14.

12
Strate~ic Crime Analysis:

Strategic crime analysis furnishes information concerning long-range

problems. Strategic crime analysts provide data relative to long-term
increases or decreases in crime (crime trend data). They also prepare
crime statistical summaries-often referred to as exception reports
since they reflect deviations from the norm-and provide resource
acquisition and allocation information.

Administrative Crime Analysis:

Administrative crime analysis focuses on the provision of economic.

geographic or social information to administrators. Examples of
administrative crime analysis tasks include grant writing, feasibility
studies, and the preparation of special research projects.

Only in the larger police agencies of the country will crime analysts
become involved in but one of the above areas. Most frequently they
will be expected to perform some of the tasks associated with each
process from time to time. This expectation is not unreasonable as
long as the emphasis remains on the analysts' performance of tactical
crime analysis tasks.

FUNCTIONS:

Crime analysis information can be used to not only enhance an

agency's ability to catch crooks, but to do it more efficiently. The unit
can assist the department through its performance of the following
functions:
• Identification of evolving or existent crime patterns and
series
• Forecasting future crime occurrences

• Initiation of target profile analyses

• Provision of investigative leads
• Provision of support data to crime prevention programs

• Assisting in case clearance processes

13
• Provision of trend and other data to support ret~ource
allocation and departmental planning

• Analysis of operational data for deployment planning and

budgeting

While records bureaus serve as repositories of information, crime

analysis units are processors of information. The success of a crime
analysis unit lies in the ability of its personnel to take bits and pieces
of information and connect them to determine the nature of criminal
activity within the community. Once that has been accomplished, the
crime analysis unit can provide patrol and investigative personnel
with the information needed to suppress criminal activity. Depending
upon its staffing level, the unit can also provide administrators with
information necessary for properly budgeting resources for
adequately staffing departments, equipihg and deploying personnel.

APPLICATIONS:

Assume that burglaries of construction sites have been occurring in

the southeastern portion of your jurisdiction for a two-month period.
Over the same time frame, armed robberies of liquor stores have been
occurring in the northwestern section of your city.

Identification of Evolvin~ or Existent Crime PatterM

In the daily process of reviewing crime reports, the analyst looks for
similarities in dates, times and methods by which crimes are
committed. He or she also notes any similarity in suspect descriptions.
This procedure identifies a particular suspect who may be responsible
for the commission of several offenses. After report examination, the
analyst collates and analyzes the data in an attempt to define
recurring patterns of criminal activity. If a pattern is noted. relevant
information is disseminated to p.atrol or special tactical action units.
The analyst then continues to monitor the pattern until the pattern
ceases, usually because the suspect leaves the area or is arrested.

In this example. the analyst notes that, of the construction site

burglaries committed, there is nothing to suggest they are being com-
mitted by the same person(s). In some instances only lumber was
taken; in others, appliances were stolen and lumber was left behind.
Some burglaries occurred on weekends; others occurred at night

14
during the week. Witnesses also described a variety of suspects. Some
were male white juveniles while others were black adults.

At this point, the analyst would say that a crime pattern existed. A
crime pattern is the occurrence of similar offenses in a defined
geographic area, either a single reporting district, a beat, or an entire
city. In this case, the analyst has a number of construction site
burglaries committed in the same part of town but there is nothing to
suggest that the same person or persons are responsible.

The armed robberies, however, are another matter. In one of the

robberies, a teenage white suspect used a knife. In two others, the
suspects simulated a weapon. One of the suspects was a black male
and the other a Hispanic adult. The robberies occurred on different
days of the week.

In four other robberies, however, an adult white male used a chrome

plated revolver. This suspect made his victims kneel on the floor,
opened the register himself, removed cash and then told his victims to
"wait five minutes before calling the cops." He committed all robberies ..
on Wednesdays between nine and eleven o'clock in the evening. _

Since a number of robberies (same type of crime) were occurring In

the northwestern part of town (same geographical area), it would be
appropriate to state that a crime pattern was in evidence. However, In
the case of the four robberies wherein the chrome plated handgun was
used, the analyst would state that he or she was observing a crime sea
ries. A crime series is a crime pattern wherein there is reason to
believe that the same person or persons are responsible.

In the four robberies committed on Wednesdays, the MO in each case

was the same and all victims gave similar suspect descriptions. The
same person is probably responsible for committing these crimes.

Forecastin~ Future "Qccurrence:

By examining the crime pattern. the analyst can come to some

conclusions regarding date, time and location of future criminal events.
Assuming that the robber in the previous example adheres to past
habit, he will likely hit another liquor store in the northwestern
section of town next Wednesday night between nine and eleven
o'clock. He will probably be armed with the chrome plated handgun.
e
Having reached this conclusion, the analyst would prepare a bullerin

15
describing the nature of the series and disseminate that bulletin to
patrol and special units for tactical action planning.

Successful forecasting of a criminal event can be an exhilarating

experience. Often, however, forecasting is frustrating for the following
reasons.

Some people feel that the analyst has a crystal ball or, that the
analyst's computer magically foretells the next criminal incident.
Crystal balls are nonexistent, and the best any computer can do is
provide the analyst with information he or she can use for
examination purposes. There is no magic button that tells the analyst
the location. date and time of the next crime, or the name of its
perpetrator.

More frustrating, however, is the frequent failure of the criminal to do

what he or she is supposed to do according to an analyst'S prediction.
Criminals just don't cooperate! To illustrate this point,. the authors
recall a story told to them by Lt. Lee Blevins of the EI Cerrito,
California, Police Department. A suspect's actions had been monitored
.1
over a period of time and the police felt quite certain he would strike
on a particular evening. Officers placed themselves at the targeted
location and waited for the suspect to make his grand entrance. He
never made an appearance. Later, when subsequently apprehended
and interrogated. the suspect was asked why he had failed to commit
the crime anticipated. His reply was enlightening. He told
investigators that they had accurately identified his pattern and that
he had planned to hit the location they were watching. However. on
that particular night, he was home in bed with a terrible case of flu!

The analyst monitors the actions of people, not machines; while

criminals often adhMe to habit, there is always the possibility they
will deviate. In fact, a "good" criminal will deviate from habit
frequently and intentionally. The analyst must remember that some
things-like a bad case of flu---<:annot be factored into an equation.

There are many other reasons why predictions may not come true:

• the information used to formulate the prediction was

inaccurate

• the analyst's determination of the pattern/series was incorrect

16
• targeted locations and/or date/time calculations were incorrect

• suspect left the area or was arrested by another jurisdiction

• suspect no longer has a need to commit crime (got a job,

received an inheritance, is being supported by a friend or
relative, has "seen the light," etc.)

• suspect is deceased

Target Profile Analyses:

Successful target profiling identifies what type of person, structure,

vehicle or establishment is likely to become a target (victim) of crime.
In our example, the analyst concluded that other liquor stores in the
northwestern part of town were vulnerable. Operations units may
wish to monitor these establishments in an attempt to apprehend the
suspect.

Target profile analyses benefit both police and the public at large.
Police officials use the information to develop tactical action and
directed patrol plans. Tactical action plans guide the activities of
operations personnel in the suppression of specific and well-defined
crime problems (e.g., the four liquor store robberies in our example).
Directed patrol plans are less specific and are designed to place
officers in areas having more generalized crime problems (e.g.,
neighborhoods where burglaries have increased to the extent that a
crime pattern can be ·identified). Target profile information can be
used to warn the public of existing or impending criminal activity. A
newspaper story citing robberies at automated teller machines can
help reduce the number of these occurrences. Radio or television
announcements describing certain crimes in certain areas and
emphasizing the need for caution can also be effective.

Investi~ative Leads For Investi~ators:

Robbery detectives will join with patrol in an attempt to identify and

locate the suspect responsible for the four robberies in our example.
The crime analyst searches manual or automated data files for pre-
viously arrested persons (known offenders) matching the suspect
description. If the suspect's vehicle was seen, the analyst would
search vehicle files to see if it had ever been listed on a crime report.
field interview (FI) card or traffic citation. Any information obtained

17
would be passed to investigators and leads would be used by
detectives to identify and locate the suspect.

SuppQrt Data For Crime PreventiQn ero~r~

Crime prevention personnel would use the information regarding the

robbery series to inform other liquor store employees of these crimes.
As noted earlier, this information can be very useful to potential
victims of crime. A liquor store owner might decide to increase the
number of employees assigned to work on. Wednesday evenings or
move the cash register closer to the front of the store where it can be
better observed by officers cruising by. The owner might also wish to
discuss with employees precautions to take should a robbery occur.

Crime prevention officers might wish to take the analyst's information

in the burglary example and solicit CDoperation from the owners of
construction companies to better secure their worksites. They could
also share this information with neighborhood watch groups. By being
properly infonned, a witness may call the police if he or she observes
another burglary attempt.

Analysts can also provide crime prevention officers with information

to "tailor make" their presentations. Assume that a particular
neighborhood has been the victim of an auto thief. An officer
speaking to this group should be able to address the auto thefts that
have occurred. If the officer is talking to a group of residential
burglary victims, he will want to talk about the burglary problem.
Many agencies require their crime prevention officers. to obtain
neighborhood "work-ups" before making their presentations.

Assistin~ in Case Clearance Processes;

When suspects are taken into custody, the analyst can' determine if
they may be responsible for offenses other than those for which they
have been arrested. When our mythical robber is captured and
interrogated, he may tell investigators that the robbery for which he
was arrested was the only robbery he ever committed. Fat chance!
How is the investigator to know what other crimes he may have com-
mitted? The investigator can use crime analysis information to link
the suspect with other crimes he may have committed. Once these
have been identified and substantiated. they can be cleared.

18
Dat3 to Support R~source Allocation and Departmental Plannin~
Acti vities;
Analysts can provide their agencies with a wealth of material for
overall planning purposes. For example, crime analysis can provide
answers to the following questions:

• is crime increasing or decreasing?

• how many crimes are likely to occur nex.t year?

• how many calls for service are we likely to receive next year?

• what will be the impact on resources if we annex an area?

• how many officers will we need over the next two years?

• is there a significant relationship between crime rate and

implementation of our new crime suppression program-is it
worth the cost?

Answers to these inquiries will provide the basis for planning for
future departmental growth.

Operational Data for Deployment Plannin~ and Bud~etin~ Activities:

Every jurisdiction needs a number of patrol officers on duty at any

given time of the day or night. Exactly how patrol officers should be
deployed throughout a twenty-four hour period is not easily
determined without research. This research is done by the crime
analyst and is another function of the crime analysis unit.

In the past, agencies approached the question of how to deploy their

people in a rather straightforward way. If they had 30 officers. they
would assign 10 to day shift, 10 to swing shift and 10 to graveyard.
Beats were often defined by geographical boundaries, not by crime
rates. This method does not always work.

While the 10 officers on day shift were falling all over themselves
trying to find something. to do, the folks on evening and graveyard
shifts were buried in work. Workloads weren't evenly distributed.
Because beats were drawn along geographical boundaries (e.g.. "let's
divide the city into a four-beat quadrant at Elm and Maple Streets
since they're the two biggest streets in town and everybody knows

19
where they are'"), it was not unusual to find some officers in a state of
near retirement while others were working themselves to death!

By knowing the agency's needs, the community's needs, the number of

calls for service, the crime rate, etc., the crime analyst can do a
workload and manpower distribution study to determine how many
officers the agency needs, how these officers should be deployed, and
what the proper beat boundaries should be. This provides for a more
efficient patrol force.

By providing an analysis of operational data, the crime analyst also

assists administrators with budgetary concerns. Once the number of
people the agency needs has been ascertained, it then becomes
necessary for the department's budget analyst-not the crime analyst-
to determine how much it will cost to equip them. How many more
police cars are needed? How many more guns? How much more for
overtime, Xerox paper and coffee for the lunchroom? All of these
questions have to be answered annually by every police agency in the
nation. By providing the budget analyst with information relative to
staffing needs, the crime analyst performs a service benefiting all
members of the organization.

20
CHAPTER 3

PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT ISSUES

PROQRA\l DEVELQP;\JE~T lSSCES

Most crime analysis programs have been created by the development

and implementation of the following three modules:

• a Crime Analysis Cnit

o a Management of Patrol Operations (MPO) Program

• a Management of Criminal Investigations (MCI) Program

Timing of Implementation:

Agencies differ in the amount of time it takes to implement a crime

analysis program. Some departments elect to develop the components
ill t:U/lset:ulive urder using a twelve month period to accomplish each
phase. Others decide to develop the crime analysis unit within
twenty-four months and then concurrently develop their MPO and
MCI programs over the next eighteen months. Any method can be
satisfaclory as long as prior planning is done to ensure the success of
the project.

Program Planning:

Whether a department uses outside funds or not, proper planning is

essential to successful development of a crime analysis program.

Agencies in California must submit a written plan to the Office of

Criminal Justice Planning before receiving permission to use state
grant funds to start their programs. This plan describes the objectives.
the training of personnel. the necessary equipment, and provides u
time line depicting dates that program milestones will be achieved. A
line item budget detailing all program costs is also required. Agencit!s
requesting to use these monies to purchase computer equipment must
also submit a needs assessment to justify its acquisition.

The development of a written plan which takes the above factors into
consideration is highly recommended regardless of funding source.
Wahout such a plan. the program may develop haphazardly and fail to
achieve its objectives.

-...
1')
Executive Commi t men!:

Implementation of a crime analysis program create~ long-term change

in an organization. ~vlany people are resistant to change-especially
when it involves abandoning time-honored practices and procedures.
Left unchecked, these individuals can prevent a crime analysis unit
from becoming an effective part of the organization.

All persons in the organization must know that the program has the
total support of the chief executive. Command staff must be told that
the unit has been established to benefit the entire department and
that the cooperation of their personnel is not only necessary, but
required.

Crime analysts are dependent upon receIving informatIOn tram many

people in the organization. For them to be truly effective, others must
act on the information they provide. If this exchange does not occur.
the crime analysis program will fail to meet its objectives.

Executive Task Force:

An executive task force should be created in the early stages of pro-

gram de.velopment. All members of the task force should be ac-
quainted with crime analysis concepts and the functions of the crime
analysis unit. The purpose of the task force is to guide the direction of
the crime analysis program. provide for its integration into the
department and to emure that it meets the needs of its user groups.

At minimum, the task force should be composed of the follo\ving:-l

• Project director (law enforcement executive)

e Project manager (supervisor of the program)

• Crime analysis supervisor (if not the project manager)

• A patrol commander (if not the project manager)

4 Offict! of Criminal Justice Planning. Career Criminal Appr,h{'nsioll

Guidelines. January 19H8. p. 7.

23
~ An investigations commander (if not the project man-
ager)

~ A representative from the prosecutor's office 5

• Any aduilional staff membcr(s) whose involvement in

this task force would promote successful program
implementation.

Because the crime analysis program fosters many changes. the person
who serves as the project director for the program must have access to
the chief executive. Where the chief or sheriff is the project director.
this access must be g,iven to the project manager. The chief executive
must be kept informe.d of contemplated changes and the program's
continuing state of development.

Intradepartmental C~er Committee

Line level individuals who will have direct contact with the crime
analysis unit must cooperate in the program. To secure this
cooperation, these individuals must be included in the user group
committee.

The committee should meet regularly, and operational needs of both

the analyst antI the users should be openly discussed. ~loreover. :.111
members of the group should be given the opportunity to discuss the
types of products and services they wish to receive from the crime
analysis unit. The committee may also address forms design. the
establishment of information exchange procedures. and the use of
crime analysis data for directed patrol and/or tactical action planning.
Finally, committe members should be encouraged to give crime
analysis unit personnel continuing feedback and evaluation relative to
their provisi<?n oJ: product and services.

The user group should be, comprised of members from the following
divisions, units or bureaus:
• Crime Analysis Unit

5 In those states which have them. this individual should be the pmJl.'cl
director for the district allorney's Carecr Criminal or olhcr such pro~(,C'ullnn
program. Where no such program exists. the district al\orncy should aSl'lgn a
deputy district attorney to coordinatc wilh Ihe 10c:11 agency regarding Ihl:
handling of career criminal cases.

24
• Patrol
• Investigations

• Records
• Special Units/Details

• Crime Prevention

• Administration

• Computer Services (if not assigned elsewhere)

• Communications/Dispatch

• Planning and Training

• Traffic
• Any additional division, unit or bureau whose represen-
tation would promote successful implementation of the
program.

Representatives of the above divisions, units and bureaus need not bt!
supervisors; indeed, sometimes it is better if they are not. However.
regardless of rank, they should be' people whose opinions are re-
spected by others in the organization.

Interdepartmental Cser Committee:

It is also beneficial to establish a user group composed of representa-

tives from agencies outside the organization who will have contact
with the crime analysis unit. Meetings with these people facilitate;:
exchange of information and keep the analyst apprised of community
concerns. Among others. committee members may include
representatives from the following organizations:

• District Attorney's Office (for information on progress of

pending cases. changes in policies and/or procedurt!s.
etc. )
• Probation/Parole (for in format ion re gardi ng pt!rsons
who have either been taken off probation/parole or art!
about to be released into the community)

25
• Neighboring Police/Sheriffs jurisdictions (for informa-
tion regarding shared criminals, crime patterns, crime
series and/or other crime problems)
• Schools (for information regarding the activities of juve-
nile offenders and the nature of gang, drug and other
crime problems on or near school grounds)

• Adult/Juvenile State Prisons if located in or near the ju-

risdiction (for information regarding incarcerations, re-
leases, escapes, etc.)
• Any appropriate community organizations (e.g., gang or
drug rehabilitation centers; housing authority; other
such agencies which can provide insight into crime or
crime causation factors in the community)
• Any other organization whose representation would be
of assistance to the program.

26
CHAPTER 4

DEVELOPMENT OF A CRIME ANAL YSIS UNI7

_ _ _ _ _ _:.c.-_ _ _ _ _ _ __
DEVELOPMENT OF A CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

Placement Within the Qr~anization;

Crime analysis units are most effective when assigned to patrol or

investigative divisions. Large agencies may wish to assign crime
analysts to specialized units (e.g., narcotics, forgery/fraud, homicide,
intelligence, etc.) as well. Under no circumstances, however. should
crime analysis units be assigned to planning, research, budget or
similar administrative divisions. The primary objective of a crime
analysis unit is to detect crime patterns and to provide information to
patrol and investigative officers to assist in the identification of
criminal offenders. These people should be the first beneficiaries of
the analysts' efforts and it is important that analysts become
acquainted. regularly communicate, interact with, and be continually
available-on a daily basis-to provide these officers the information
they want and need.

When assigned to administration or the chief executive's office, crime

analy.sis will be seen by the troops as a unit developed to provide
assistance to administrators; they will not consider it a component
developed to be of assistance to them. When this occurs, interaction
between crime analyst and field and investigative personnel becomes
diminished. Crime analysts are often assigned to administrative
divisions because they have skills of benefit to administrators. They
are usually good writers and proficient mathematicians and are often
called upon to provide administrative staff with a wide variety of
reports. Crime analysts should not be required to spend the bulk of
their time working on these activities; administrative duties should be
given to others in the organization who have been specifically hired
for this purpose. The crime analyst should be free of administrative
work so that he or she can provide service to patrol and investigative
personnel.

Physical Placement of the Unit:

The crime analysis unit should be physically located where it is easily

accessible to patrol and investigative officers. Though an office neaf
the patrol briefing or report writing room is ideal, any area of the
building will suffice ,n long as officers have access to it. Many officers
will not frequent a crime analysis unit if it is inconvenient for them to
do so~ further, they often will not visit if they have to go through
"mahogany row" to get there.

28
Supervision of Crime Analysis Personnel;

The unit should be supervised by an individual who is well-respected

within the department and familiar with crime analysis concepts. This
person should know what crime analysis is and how it should be done.

Supervisors should introduce new analysts to members of the

department, explain the role and functions of analysts, and assist
analysts gain acceptance by agency personnel. Supervisors should also
provide new analysts with familiarization training in the following
areas:

• General police operations of the agency

• Job functions of departmental' personnel
• Crime analysis concepts
". Job expectations of the analyst
• Sources of internal and external information
• Use of departmental reports
• Use of departmental computer systems
• Functions of other components of the criminal justice system

• MOs used by criminals to commit various crimes

• History and general nature of crime in the community
Trainin~ of Crime Ana,ysis Personnel:

Because this is a new field, it is not uncommon for the following

scenario to occur. On his or her first workday, the analyst walks in
and meets the supervisor of the crime analysis unit. During the
conversation, the analyst may say something like, "This sounds like
very interesting work. I know a little bit about it from reading the job
flyer and from what was said during my oral interview, but I'd like to
know more about it. Exactly what is crime analysis and what am I
supposed to do?" In response, the supervisor leans close to the

29
analyst and in hushed tones whispers. "You know, I wouldn't want this
to get around; but frankly, I haven't got the foggiest idea!"

This happens more frequently than one might imagine. And the
reason it occurs is because little in the way of formal crime analysis
training is currently available. To prevent reinactments of the
scenario just described, we recommend that supervisors receive crime
analysis training prior to the arrival of analysts and the development
of' the unit. If this is not possible, analysts and supervisors may
attend training sessions together.

Crime analysis training may be obtained in California from the

Commission on Peace Officers Standards and Training. The Office of
Criminal Justice Planning also sponsors crime analysis conferences at
various times during the year. Oth~r organizations throughout the
nation that similarly provide crime analysis training include: the
International Association of Chiefs of Police (Gaithersburg, Maryland),
Public Administration Service (McLean, Virginia), and the Institute of
Police Technology and Management (University of North Florida,
Jacksonville, Florida).

Staffin~;

Numbers of people assigned to the crime analysis unit are dependent

upon the size of the agency and the crime rate. leAP recommended
that one to two analysts plus clerical support be employed by agencies
having 100 to' 300 personnel, three to four analysts plus clerical sup-
port be employed by agencies having 300 to 800 personnel, and five
to seven analY$ts plus clerical support be employed by agencies hav-
ing 800 to 1200 personnel. Agencies having in excess of 1200
personnel will obviously exceed these staffing recommendations.

Departments operating out of one building need only one crime

analysis unit. Agencies having .outlying stations or precincts need to
decide if they wish to centralize or decentralize crime analysis
operations.

The Dallas, Texas, Police Department has a headquarters crime analysis

unit and assigns additional analysts to its stations. Station analysts
perform routine analyses while the centralized staff concentrates on
complex crime probh~ms. The centralized staff uses information
provided by peripheral analysts to track crime throughout the whole
of the jurisdiction.

30
Placing analysts outside of headquarters promotes personal
interchange between analyst and station officers. Dallas officials found
that communications efforts were hampered when they had only a
centralized unit; this realization served to promote assignment of
analysts to outlying areas.

Another factor influencing staffing decisions is the number of crimes

analysts are expected to analyze. Budgetary constraints, coupled with
the volume of cases, may preclude hiring the number of analysts
needed to track and monitor all criminal incidents. Administrators in
this position should consider having their analysts focus on crimes of
greatest concern to the agency. In this situation, the analyst should be
encouraged to provide comprehensive analyses of one or two crime
types rather than superficial analyses qf many criminal events.

Agencies with fully automated information systems will need fewer

analysts than those using manual procedures. Administrators should
remember, however, that computer systems cannot make decisions for
an analyst; they will, however, significantly reduce the time used to
acquire the information needed to make them.

Sworn vs. Non-Sworn Personnel as A.nalysts:

The primary advantage of 'Using sworn personnel as crime analysts is

the experience and knowledge of police operations that they bring to
the job. Since sworn officers know the jurisdiction, its crime problems.
and "the way cops think," they will have little trouble securing and
dispensing the information needed to integrate crime analysis into the
mainstream of the department. Additionally, sworn officers may have
immediate credibility with the troops.

The primary disadvantage of using sworn officers as crime analysts is

that it fails to accomplish one very important objective that is central
to the whole purpose of creating a crime analysis program in the first
place-it fails to free officers to do the things that only they can do in
protecting life and property. It reduces the strength of the patrol
force, and reduces the uncommitted patrol time available to those offi-
cers who are working the streets. Officers who are assigned as analysts
are subject to transfer or promotion out of the unit and this can
impede or halt the unit's progress. Similarly detrimental is the
tendency to use officers for non-crime analysis functions (e.g .• to fill
patrol spots during vacation periods, assisting short-staffed detectives

31
on a "door kicktl, etc.). The use of light-duty officers is also of
minimum benefit for they return to regular duty after recovering
from an injury or illness; projects started by such officers may not be
completed. An additional disadvantage is that it costs more to hire
sworn staff than it does to hire civilians.

Those who hire civilian analysts look for people who enjoy analysis
work and who will likely be around to do it for many years. When
hiring an analyst, look for someone with demonstrated research,
writing, analytical and mathematical skills. Applicants who have
congenial personalities, are adaptable to new situations, and who can
work well wi th others are de~irable.

The disadvantage of hiring non-sworn analysts lies not so much in

their having any particular fault, but because some members of the
agency may refuse to accept them under any circumstances merely
because they are civilians. Where such sworn versus non-sworn
issues exist, little in the way of communication is established between
the two groups. This situation will render a crime analysis unit
ineffecti ve, for officers will neither share information with the analyst
nor use the data he or she provides. 6

We feel the advantage of using civilians outweighs any disadvantages.

Many non-sworn analysts throughout the country are exceedingly
effective in their jobs, and have experienced few problems securing
the acceptance and cooperation of sworn staff. Non-sworn analysts
are quite capable of providing products and services of benefit to all
members of their organizations. Administrators who use civilian
analysts are able to relieve sworn personnel of administrative tasks
and improve the efficiency of their operations forces.

HOUTS of Operation:

Most crime analysis units maintain a Monday through Friday. 8:00 A~1
to 5:00 PM, workweek. This schedule is satisfactory for most agencies.
especially in the beginning stages of program development. The crime
analyst will have to be available to answer questions. draft new
procedures and perform other tasks associated with development of

6 If you are an analyst who has tried everything and found yourself hopelessly
caught in this situation. we have a word of advice for you. "Quit!" Then find
another organization who will be more appreciative of your efforts.

32
the program. This can best be accomplished during the standard
workweek.

Analysts should be given some freedom to vary work hQurs to meet

evening and graveyard shifts. These shifts also need to know about
crime analysis and should become acquainted with the analyst at the
earliest opportunity. Analysts allowed to vary their work schedules
can more easily establish good communication with all members of the
organization early in the development process. This is extremely
important and often contributes to the success or failure of the crime
analysis program. Anything. that enhances communication between
analyst and agency members should be strongly encouraged.

Qpen Door Policy:

The crime analysis unit should have an· "open door" policy; all persons
regardless of rank or position within the organization should have
ready access to it. Supervisory approval to contact analysts regarding
legitimate requests for information should not be required. Open door
policies encourage communication and the free exchange of
information; establishing "procedures" for visiting the crime analysis
unit erects barriers that inhibit this process.

Equipment and Supplies:

The crime analysis unit should be equipped much like any other non-
tactical office of the department. Basic items include the following:

• Desks or workstations for staff

• Typewriters

• Offic.:e supplies

• Telephones
• File Cabinets
• Bookcases

• Statistical calculator

• Standard copy machine (or convenient access to same)

• Standard fan-fold and wall maps of the jurisdiction

33
• Multi-color 1/8" adhesive dots (for color coded depiction
of crime locations on maps)

• Plastic map overlays

• Flip chart and accessories

• "Kroy" or similar lettering machine (to create headlines~

banners, etc.-a great alternative to "rub on" lettering
sheets)

• Graphics supplies (to do ,jpaste ups" of bulletins and to

prepare camera-ready materials)

• Standard reference guides (codebooks, street directory,

dictionary, thesaurus, etc~)

Depending upon the budget of the agency, acquisition of the additional

below listed items will be helpful:

• Computer terminal and/or full computer system and the

following peripheral items: 7

o Software

7 Agencies need not have a computer system to have effective crime analysis
units. Indeed. many operated successfully in a manual mode before the advent
of automation. However, for those departments which art or will be automated.
it is essential that crime analysis units be provided their own computer
terminals. These terminals should be on-line to a department's primary
computer system so that an analyst can easily download data from or upload data
to it.

If the primary system bas only the singular function of capturing crime and
other incident data. it is recommended that the agency acquire a stand-alone
personal computer sys.tem for ~he crime analysis unit. Depending upon the
software purcbased for it. the system will allow the analyst to create graphics.
spreadsheets and databases. It will also perform word processing and desktop
publishing tasks and facilitate computation of the statistics necessary to the data
analysis process. Further. the system can be used to monitor crime patterns and
series and to track case assignments and clearances. Project management.
flowcharting, simple budget accounting for the unit and other such routine
activities can also be assisted through use of the personal computer. Finally.
when networked together on a department-wide basis. these computers can be
used to promote the rapid exchange of information throughout the entire
organization. For more information regarding automated systems. please see
Chapter 9 of this book.

34
o Dot matrix or laser printer (a color printer will add
flair to documents)

o Graphics Plotter (to create color graphs and charts)

o Scanner (to allow photos, drawings and maps to be

easily entered into the computer's graphics sys-
tem)

o Network hardware and software (to connect com-

puter systems and peripherals)

o Modems (to allow computer access to systems

outside the department) -
• Color copier (also adds flair to documents)

• Overhead projector

• Drafting table and supplies

• Facsimile machine

• Additional reference materials (National Institute of

Justice bulletins, Law Enforcement News, Criminal Justice
Newsletter, etc.).

35
---- -----------~ -- - - - - -

CHAPTER 5

THE CRIME ANAL YSIS PROCESS

THE CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS

The five processes inherent in crime analysis are:

• data collection
• data collation
• data analysis
• data dissemination
• feedback and evaluation
DATA COLLECTION:

Data collection may be defined as the gathering of specified raw data

taken from crime reports and other law enforcement documents. 8

Collection and analysis of data enable' the crime analyst to determine

what criminal activity is occurring, when , where and how it is being
committed. and who the perpetrators might be. Data may thus be
considered the lifeblood of the crime analysis operation. Without data,
the crime analysis operation will cease to exist.

Source Documents:

Although many documents in an agency may be considered "source

documents." the ones of primary concern to the analyst are the offense
(crime) report. the suspect/arrest report and the field interview (FI)
report. These documents contain the data that are used most
frequently to establish the existence or emergence of crime patterns,
build MO and suspect files and determine the identity of criminal
offenders.

Source Docyment Modification~~

Modifications to source documents usually emanate out of an analyst's

need to gather data which is standardized. usable. of good quality and
in a format that facilitates the collection process. If current report
forms and source documents do not meet these criteria, new ones
should be developed. Newly created documents should contain dara
specific enough to allow formulation of conclusions as to the exisrence
or emergence of criminal activity and to the identification of possible!
suspects. while allowing pertinent data to be easily extracted.

8 California State Oepanment of Justice. Introduction 10 Crime AOJlysls.

(Depanment of Justice Training Center), p. 1-3.

37
Data Elemcnt R~qlliremcnl":

At minimum. the followinn.... source documents should include the data

listed below:

• Crime Reports

o geographic factors
o time factors
o victim/target descriptors
o property loss descriptors
o physical evidence descriptors
o solvability factors
o specific ~10 factors
v preliminury investigation information

• Suspect/Arrest Reports

o geograph ic factors
o time factors
o victim/wrget descriptors
o recovered property descriptors
o physical evidence descri ptors
o specific MO factors
o suspect descri ptors
o suspect vehicle descriptors

• Field Interview (FI) Reports

o geographic descriptors
o time factors
o subject descriptors
o subject vehicle descriptors
o names of associates with subject
o reasons for the interview.

Report Formats:

The two types of formats most widely used in the design of soun.:e
documents are the:

• narrative format

38
• forced choice format.

Documents designed in a narrative format are usually inappropriate

for crime analysis work because they leave too much to the discretion
of the officer completing the report. Important information may be
overlooked and subjective opinions may be presented as facts.
Additionally, collecting data from narrative reports is cumbersome.
The analyst spends so much time trying to locate data within the body
of these reports that analysis often comes too late to be of any real
value to patrol and investigative officers.

Forced-choice reports aid the data collection process by:

• eliminating the need for officers to remember to include

various data elements in their reports
• standardizing the capture and improving the accuracy of
data
• presenting data in a format that eases collection and
facilitates analysis.

The two basic types of forced-choice reports are the "check-box"

report and the Scantron® report. "Check-box" reports-so named
because of their check-box. design-list pre-defined data elements used
to describe people and criminal events. Officers simply "check off"
elements as they apply to any particular investigation (Figures 1. 1A.
2, and 2A).

Scantron® reports are compieted by blackening data element boxes

with a pencil. Developed by the Scantron Corporation and the Chino,
California, Police Department to capture crime, suspect and field
interview data. these reports utilize a forced-choice format that is
specifically designed for use by agencies with automated information
systems (Figures 3, 4 and 5). Reports are fed through an optical
scanning device and their information is automatically sent to and
stored by the agency's computer system.

Scantron® reports offer two primary benefits not shared by other

reporting systems. First, they minimize data entry time. Data can be
entered into an automated system in a matter of seconds instead of
minutes. Second. Scantron® reports enhance the accuracy of the data
entry process. Using traditional methods, data entry operators may
accidentally enter incorrect information and their errors may never be
discovered. By contrast, since the optical scanning device only "reads"
39
Pigure 1

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40
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S COLOR
BODY-STYLE (2)'
- - - -
,INDICATE SHAOE IN BOX (SeE CODES BELOW)
WHEELS (3)
- ..... ~

;"g~Pftg) 0 ~.\;~:.'lOftTH(Sr - ---

0 o 0 o
C TWo.oOOR SEDAN o 0 o 0 C MAG- 0 MODoIFlEo o 0 o 0 0 SPO- TlIGHTS
o 0 0 0 0 FoU·" OOOF! SEDAN o 0 0 0 tJ SPO-KE o 0 0 0 0 STO-CK 0 0 o 0 0 W!Q.E I14IARORS
o 0 COO CON·VERnBLE o 0 o C 0 WlA·E o 0 0 0 0 LoU·O PIPES 0 0 C 0 C AIel-e...NAS
o C o
0 C STA·nON WAGON o 0 0 0 0 OfS.H CDC C 0 WOR-H EXHAUST 0, 0 o C 0 H{)().r.I SC(I()P
C! 0 ceo Sp().RTS CAR o 0 C C 0 CHR-OME o 0 0 0 0 UNK-NOWH 0 0 c e o flEA·!\' AIf! SPOIL
0 C 0 o 0 PlC.K UP o 0 C C 0 NO H-U8 CAPS 0 0 o 0 0 FM·HT AIR DAM
o e D C 0 TRU·CK o 0 0 0 0 UNK·NOWN DICALa (3) 0 0 o 0 0 FlA·RES
. -0 COO SEM·I o 0 0 0 0 WlN·COWS 0 0 o C 0 FOtI-II *'HEa ""'
• tlO 0 0 0 VAN· WINDOWS (3) o 0 0 0 0 SUM·PaI 0 0 tJ 0 0 UNK·HOWN
tJ C ceo MOT·ORHOME o 0 C 0 C CUS·TOM 000 0 0 9OQ.V
0 o C 0 ALL· TERRAIN VEHICl o C o 0 0 TIN· no o 0 0 0 0 RfA-R WlNOOW 'AINl (3)
0 0 0 o C OIR·T MOTORCYCLE COO 0 C lOll·V£flEC o 0 0 0 0 UNK.ftOWH o 0 o 0 0 oeS·I(;N
0 C C o 0 STR·EEl MOTORCYCLE C C C 0 C CUA·TAINS o C o C 0 ~T~.HcS
[J COO C CUS·TOM MOTORCYCLE C 0 C C C SUN· ROOf Llyn At. TPrD (1) o Cj o C 0 PlC·TURE
0 0 C C C MOP·EO o C o C C BRO-KEN o 0 0 0 0 FRo.NT C 0 o 0 C PAI·I.IEft
0 0 o Cl C sco·onR o 0 0 0 0 UNK·HOWN o 0 0 0 0 REA-II o c: o 0 C UHK·NOWN
0 0 0 0 0 UNK·NOWN o 0 0 0 0 SIO·E
o 0 0 0 0 WHO-lf
o 0 0 0 0 UNK·NOWN

-
I HEREBY CERTIFY THAT TO THE BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE THE INFORMATION GIVEN IN THIS REPORT IS llIUE,.NO ACCURATE. - - -~I.X:KEo DYES DNa
AUTO PAYMENTS CUIIR£NT 0 YES 0-

VICTIM SEO- SIGNATURE IHSUIIEo 0 YES 0 NO

4. IMPOUNDED/STORED/RECOYERED YEHICLE INFORMATION
GENERAL VEHICLE CONOI~
VIN CHECK 0 YES 0 NO , 2 J • !
VIN ALTERED 0 YES 0 NO 5
o 0 0 0 C DAI·V(.
2 3 o 0 0 C 0 ~E~.
c e o 0 0 STII·I,..,
SPEEDOMETER ----_______ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - c e o 0 0 BUn-.
DETAil VEHICLE CONDITION (INDICATE CONDITION OF PART, SEE CONDITION CODES BELOW)
12345 ;2345 12345 , 2 3 4 5
LR TIRE ____ _ TRANS STERO/T APE - -
BODY
F BUMPER
RR TIRE ____ _ BATTERY _ _ - - - SPEAKERS - - - -
R BUMPER SPOTLIGHTS _ _ _ _ _ FSEAT ___ - - CLOCK - - - -
"'cUll FOG LIGHTS _ _ _ _ _ R SEAT CIG L1GHTR - - - -
fEEUHUB _ _ MIRRORS ____ _ AIR CONO - - KEYS - -
ALFTIRE
WRFTIRE
- -- I WIPERS
MOTOR
HEATER
RADIO
REGI'STRATN

43
_ - - - -

~G:An:A:G:E:AG:E:NT~X~~~~:;;::;::;:::;::;;:;:::~~GARA~AGGEE!N~rS~S~E~~~_;:::~~VE~H!lOC~:;::,:::~~~::;:~~~~~
CODII- SHADE CONDITION
COLO R E ('jRY.GRAY OR'-.ORANGE PlN.K WHI.T£ eLI' 8lrl( PRIMR III)II·IIEO ..,.,,,.R o.ARI( F.A[)f.D G·C·JO P·OOIl
/'lGE BFIr.e BUR·GUNOY eLU· " " U...... H....... H l.!GHT FAIR M.15SING
~LKBLACK 8110.WN (jOL·n GilN.GREEN PUII.PlE IIEo. YEL·LOW GRP G"'v !'fItMR .... u ..
SCAN'l'RCN ~ - cmN:> POLICE 0EPARlmNl'
- M O. IDENTlFIERS NAME/OFFICER I D CRIME CASE NO Pg of_

II ~ PLACE AT1"K
33: Phone Booth ·12. Garage '13; '13_ Sldng Dr/Wndw
I l I

FI'Bk Yard ::)4.- Photo '13' Kitchen '14: '14 Uppr Lvi
1 1 Park 35- Restaurant .14' L,v,ng Room 15 15 Wall
2 ParKing l.ot 36 Shoe Str 15 Person 16

I :!" ~~:~~:~RBoXom
I 3 School 37: Storage
4 Shol)cng Cnt. 38 Supermarket Vehicle
~ SI Alley 39 Tht,· .Enlmnl 30 30:

!I 6' Slruc
7 Vac 101
40:
41
42"
Travl)!l
TV-Radio
VIdeo Sir I ~1
Vehicle
_ _ _ _ _ _ __
31:
'32:
33:
;31- Drvr Or
;32:: Drvr Wndw
~33: L/R Dr
.12

- - -I
I SURR AREA 43 Warenouse ! Console 34.. 34- L R Wndw SECURITY SYSTEM I 19. Muill Susps
I 0 Eng Cmptmt 3S. "35 L'Wng Wndw , O· ________ I 24' o.\ade V Vulgar La
1 BU5lne 55 I ReSIdence Glove Bx 36- ,36- Pass Or ,1 AUdible Atarm 2S! Maslurbated Self
2 Farm I 51 Trunk 37" 37 Pass Wndw 2: AUXIliary Locks • 70: Needed Phone
I 3 Induslrlal 52 ApI 36 Truck Bed 36. 31! R. R Or 3- Dog · 26: Pholog,aPhed, V
1
"
4 Open' Area -5::t" Gondo :39: 39: RIR Wndw : 4: Gar Dr Locked :27: Pul Propd'cketi6
7 Park 54: Duplex Property :40: :40: R/Wng Wndw : 5 : InSide Light On : 2 e:. Put P,op/ Pllowc.
6 Prison 55- Garage -40: _ _,__ ,._,~, _ _ __ ;41: _41" Rear Doer : 6: Obscured Int View :71: Police'FI,'em",n
5 Resldenllal 56: House -4 I: Auto Parts :42: :42= Rear Wndw : 7 : OutSide Light On "29: Prepared EXit
6 School 57- Mobile Home -42= Bike '43: 043: Sun Root : 6, P"vate Sec Ptrl '30: Ransack
STRUCTURE 43: Cash/Notes 44: Trunk " g; Secuflly SIgl'l5 ~ 3 I: Rape lly Instrume
Commercial Public 44: Clthsl Fur 45-: W,ndshield :10: Silent Alarm :72:: Renter
o 61" 45.: COins 11, Standard Locks :73: Repallman
1 Aplnce. Frn 62" Church 4&: Coil/Stmps MOE : 12= Wndw Bars:G'llis • 327 Rip/Cut Clothe!
2 Aulo ParIs 63 HosPllal 47- CoIII(Oth) .0 _ - 74: Sale'lilct Ods
SUS!' / ACTION
3 Bank 64- Park 48. Consum Gds 1 Unknown : 0; _75.; Saleslle!!On
4 Bar 65- ParkIng Lol 49: Const Mal ~ 2 _ Attempt : 1: Alarm Dsabld :33: Searched/V
5 Bike 66 PubliC Bldg SO: Firearms ~ 3 ; Body Force : 2; Arson '77; Seek AUls\
6 Book Sir 51 Hshld Gds Bolt Cut 3 Ate· Drnk on Prem 78: Seek Person
7 Car'Sales
6 Camera Str
61 Vehicle
_ _ _ __ I 52'· Jwlry:Mlls
53: LIvestock 6
!\ Brick. Rock
Chnnl Lock
. 4' Bound GaglV
; 18: Been Drlnkn9
-34: SelectIve Lool
:35.; Shut Pwr Olt
9 Cleaners
10 Clolhg SI,
11 COin l.nd,y
6Z"
63·
84
Arrcrtt
Boal
Camper
I 54 Ofc EqUIP
5& Pu,se
55 TV, Rdo/Cam
6
7 Ct 'Hngr 'Wre
E~plostves
9 Hid In Bldg
5 Cased Loc
6 - Cat Burglar
6~ Conducting Srvy
1. -36:. Smo~ed/Premlt
I :3~ Sodomy
'79: Sohel Funds
12 Const
13 Cony Str
85
86
Mtr Home
Pass~:lger
57 Tool
Victim
10 Ky'Sllp,Shm
11 No !'o,ce
63: CusllCllenl
7 Covered V Face
I
:3a: Struck VIc
39= Sggsl Lewd Act
14 Computr Str 67 Plck·Up 61 0-13 YI 12 ,Punch 9: Oefec/Unnated :40: SiArmed
15 Dept Str 8a: RRICar 627 14-17 YI :13: !lemove Lvrs 10: Demandl!d Monev :41: S/Climaxed
1 16 Drv'ln Sir 89" T,aller 63: 18·24 YI '14 SW/D,II:Brn 64: Delivery Person 42= S, Fondled/V
- : 17 Drug SIr 90'. Truck 64- 25-54 yl 'l0: S,;rw Drvr :6&: [)funk 43: 5, ErechA
, 16 Elctrnc Sir 91' Van 65.; 55+ yr 'IS; TiI'e Iron . 6' Dsabld Phone I 44: S. Lea~e.s
"';'1 19 Fast Foods
I 20 Fnce Cr Un
16 • TMI ThrLl 65- Dsabld Motollst I
·4S. SiOrl Copulat/'
TARGETS ENTRY/EXIT 17 Pry Bar 11 DisrObed V, !'ully 46. TOOk Concealb

i
21 FlOrist
22 Gas,Garage
I 23 Gun, Sp Gds
o
I
2
Allie
Back,oom
o
\
2 -
I
_2
o
Unknown
Adl Bldg
16 VIce' GriP
19 Wndw Smash
Vehicle
12 DIsrobed V Partly
67" Employee Employer
- 13: Exposed Sell
I
47 TOOk V'Veh
48. Tortured,V
49;. Und Influ'Drgs
I 24 Hardware 3 Basement 3 3" Basement 31: 14.; Flied Weapon 50: Unk II Chmaxet
I 25 Hotel,Molel 4 Bathroom 4 "4' Door 32= Unkn(1wl'I - 16: Frcd V Fondle S 51- Un usa I Odors
I 26 Jewelry Str 5 Bedroom 5 5 Duel/Vent 33: Dr/Lo(:k Forcd 1t, Fred V Move 5Z" Used Demnd I'll
27 L,quor Sir 6 Cash Reg 6, 6 Floor 34- Pass Door ; 15. Fred V InVeh 53: Used Drover
1 26 Med Chnoc 7 Countr Area : 7 - - 7: Front 35.; StlP Lo\:k .68: Fllend' Relatl'/e 54: Used Lookout
I 29 MI9Firm 6 Den/Fmly Room _6 8: Garage '36: Trnk Fo,'ced 20: tnlhet Inlury 55,; Used Match, Cr
-:30' Mom & POP 9 - Dlnong Room -9 - . 9~ Ground Lvi '37: Unlocked ~21: Insert Fng" VagIna 56:. Used V/Name
\,:31 Olloce Bldg 10'" Display '10, "10: Rear 3a: Wndw Br,oken 69= IIIdnlured 57': Used V Sultc3~
, 32 Pawn Shop 11 Fenced Area II : II" Roof . 39: Wndw FOI'ced 22'"" Knew Loc,Cash 5a: Used V 'Tools
! 12' .12" S,de 40: Wndw Oplln 23: Made Threats sSe Vandalized
PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION REQUeSTED RESPONDED 50: Veh Remove P
AREA CHECKED : STATEMENT TAKEN DUSTED FOR PRINTS HELICOPTER 51 VOrl Copulal.
DIAGRAM OF SCENE : VICTIMiS) CONTACTED , : TlRE/SHOE TRACKS CANINE
SPECIAl. UNIT ,
I
EVIDENCE
NEIGHBORS CONTACTED: : WITNESSES CONTACTED'

I
1 Y
SOLVABILITY FACTORS
N I ....AS THERE A WITNESS TO THE CRIIitEl Y: .' N: 8 IS THE STOLE. PROPEAllIDENTlfII8lE? Y
OTHER
NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH
N I IS MEIII!!R Of BUSINESS
ISe

..
I~
Blood
Bul Casing
I Y N 2 IIII.S A SUSHCT AmmO? : Y: ~ N: 9 tS THERE A SIGNIFICUT 1It.01 NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH I' 3
4
BulPIIU

I Y
Y
Y.
N
N
N
l 1$ A SUSP!CT NAIIIED?
'tAX l SUSYECl BE lDemO?
5 CAN A SUSPECT BE OESCRI!EOI
Y:
Y:
Y'
! N;
. N~
- N:
10
II
12
IS SIGNifiCANT mSlCAl EVIDENCE PRESENT?
IS TMUi l'~D' IIJUIl SEX CIIIE ,MlIIIIED?
IS l1I!!E AGOOO roSSllllll1 Of SOlUTIO.?
y ' N - 2 IS ItEIIt!ER Of O~R IDENT
Y - N' 3 IMHftESm 1M MW IW 010
y: 'N: • stCURITI tHEClS OESlm
5 Clothing
Cntrld Subs
6 Feces
Y, N 6 CAN A SUSPECT BE ICENTIflEOI Y . N' il IS fURl1IER InEMATIO. mom Y , N: 5 HAD HOllE IUSI.r5SNSPEtT t 1 Fng, Prnts
hY~",.,.,.~Nl.".,~I~CA~.~lJS!!!US~PE~C!.T!!YE~HI~CllE!aE~I~O£~N~Tlf~I£!D?~_ _~Y~~N~-!!"...!I!.S~CAS~£.!&~"!!.'~R£l!\I~lE!D?~_~~_ _ _"T-::_•.J...:W:H!.:EM~IN::S~~:.:CT!!E~Dl=========:;..;i
8 - !'orearms
- VICTIM PROFILE Physlc<:J1 Condition Mafftal Status Annual Income Education ' $I' Glass
Relation To Suspect o. NO IM~IRMUIT 0 UNKNOWN : " Q·51( : 1: 8 lRS 1 10: Half mow
- o - U~KNOWN
1 ACQUAINTANCE
. 2 BOYFRiEND
3 BROTHER
9 HUSBAND
'10' MaTHER
I l' NEIGHBOR
1 2 OTHER FAMilY
1: BLIND
2' DEAF
.3: ELDERlY
4 EMOTIONAlLY UPSET
• 1

-3
ANNULLED
- 2; tOHASITIIiS
COMMON·LAW
4' DIVORCED
2
:)
5-IOK
IO-15K
.4: 15-251(
5 - 25·m
: 2 : BELOW 1% lRS
- 3: HIGII SCHOOL
- 4" 2·'"$. COllEGE
5 HRS COllm
0 None
Paint
lZ' Pllraphn"_
',3: PhotOg'A
'I"
4 BUSINESS ASSOt -13: SISTER 5: HANDICAPPED . 7: MARRIED 6 OVER 35K 6 MORE THAN 4 TRS I 14 Rape K W
5 DAUGHTER 14. SON 6: MENTALLY 0lS1 RET. 8 WIDOWIERI I' IS. Semen
6 fAmR
7 fRIEND
15 STRANGER
.16 WIFE
7
6
MUTt
SICK INJURED
5· SEPARATEO
6 SINGlE
Homeowner
Y 1\1
-.I~6~G~IR~lf~RI~fN~O__~-~'1~7~OT~HE~R========~_·~9__~UN~O~ERWI~NFll~O~RU~G~S~Al~CO~H~Ol~______________~~~~.~~~~______________~I~a~U~"~ne~____
I
16 TI MarkIngs
17 Tools

~) SCANTAQN" F·:;PI"I ~O JC.lt:;2-C::lC : , •••• :', , • : .'

Chino Police Department - Figure 3 44

.sc.AN'ml:ti Fd{K - CHlOO POLlcg-DEPAR'lMI!Nr

•
-I
Susp Name

Susp Name
--- SUSPECT/ARREST
IDENTIFIERS
Case No .
Pg._ot_
";].4: ~.e:: :7.e:: "lI~a

-I HAIR LENGTH: STYLE (cont) FACIAL HAIR (cont) BODY SHAPES: SPEECH:
1 2
991 2 (141 .'1avy 1 2 i 12: Looe Lglh Sideburns - 1 2 1991 1
-I 1 , • 2 • 2' 991
13) Collar Length -1 '2 (22) Widows Peak 1 , • 2 t 13) Lobe Lglh sa w/Flre : 1 - . 2'

e
! (1) Thin : 1 : : 2 : 121 Acetnl. Fort',
1 2 '51 Long 1 ' 2 10) Unknown 1 ' . 2 • 121 I Long POinted Moust 1' : 2 (2) Medium : 1'
: 2: (1) Acetnl. US
1 2 151 Punk Style · 1 • , 2 125) Low Exlenslon : 1 : • 2 : (3) Heavy : 1:
~ 2 : '91 oeeo
-1-1' 2' (7) Shaved COMPLEXION: : 1 7 ~ 2: (7) Mouslache : 1 : : 2: (4) Fat : 1:
:2:
-, 1
-i 1
2 (2) Short
2 141 Shldr Lng\h ,.
1 '2 (99)
2 (1) Acne. Pocked
~ 1:
, ' 2 : (:15) Mutton Chop~
· : ' 2 - 1:1:1) Old Dulch Beard
, 1: : 2: (5) MUlcular ,
•
1:
: 2'
1:
·2'
(3) O'sgul14
IA) LISP
-61 ..lute
1 2 111 Unknown 2
_I

I TYPE:
1
1'
1
2
'21 AlbinO
13) Cteat
2 141 Dark
· l ' , 2' 141 I POinted Goatee
• 1 ' '2 l23l POinted ",. Part
1: 2 . (:12) Scraggly Beard DISTINGUISHING
•
· ,-
1
: 2:
~ 2 :
, 1· : 2 :
151 S;urred
'61 Imeed,,.,enl
17) Stulleltn\l

-
-1
;
1• 2 199) 1 - 2' 15) Freckled : 1 : : 2 ; (:17) Short Bea'd MARKS: : 1: : 2 : (0) Unknown

=j:r
l 1 2 (7) Said 1 2 (5) L.19ht. Fair : 1 ' : 2 • (22) Short Moustache : 1 • = 2: 199)
: 1•

- .,"
• 2' (4) "'lne 2 (7) Medium :; 1 : : 2: (8) Sideburns : 1 : : 2: (1 I MISSing LImb WEAPON:
, 2' (6) Recedln9 - 1• - 2: IB) Olive ': 1 : ': 2 -:c 129) Small Ring Beard : 1 : : 2: (2) Anlhc~1 LImb
: 1 : : 2: 199) - - - - -
2· (2) Thick 1. • 2' (9) PalefSaliow =1 - : 2 - (40) SoutherN Colonel : 1 :; =2: (3) Blind : 1 : : 2: It 11 Butcell Bit
--

- '1' • 4! (5) Thinning • 1- • 2 • (10) Ruddy : 1: = 2 : (17) Squale Moustach. : 1 : : 2: (4) CIne/Crutch : 1 : :; 2: (12) Bllck)lck
- l' ·2 (I) WI9 : 1. 2'(11) Janned : 1 :- : 2: (27) Thick Moustach. : 1 : :2: 15) Crppld Bdy Prt : 1 : : 2: (13) Blowgun
-II'
-I 1•
2 (8) Wiry
2 (3) Unknown
•
· ,
1.
,
• 2' (12) Weathered
- 2 -(13) Wllnkled
,
:
1:
1:
: 2 - (24) Thin Moustache
: 2 : (42) Throe-Point Goatee
: 1 :- =2: (6) Deaf ~ 1 : • 2: (14) Bodily Farc.
: 1 : :2: (7) O"ormed limbs : 1 : : 2: (15) Bombl Elplol

=1 STYLE:
~ 1. '2 : (0) Unknown :
:;
1;
1:
:; 2 : (19) Turkish Moustache
: 2 ~ (9) Unshaven
:; 1 : : 2 : 18) Growth.
= 1: =2= (9) Helling Ald
: 1 :- :- 2: lIe) Bottle
: 1 :; :; 2:; 111) 8n(ItIRock

---
- "1' • 2 199) FACIAL HAIR: : 1 :- :- 2 : ( 10) Va n Dyke = 1 : :2:'l0)Ltmo : 1 : : 2' (IS) Club/Bludge..
, 1 • 2 ( 1) Alro Natural - 1 - ·2' (99) : 1: :2~ (0) UnknOWN = 1 : : 2: (11) Mute : 1 : : 2 = (19) FIIJhhghl
1• , 2'
(5) Bangs ' 1 : - 2: (34) Abe Lincoln : 1 : : 2: I (2) Skn OSCOlolltn : 1 : : 2: 12) HIr!d9un

- " 1 :-
1 • 2 (3) Bushy
'2 ,
(2) Braided , 1 • • 2' (43) Anchor Beard
1
,
2' 1\ Beard ' 1• • 2
FACE SHAPE:
(99)
: 1 : :; 2: (13) Sp,utlc Mvmn!J : 1 : : 2: (8)l(nl/e
'; 1 - : 2 ' (14) Whee"hatr ~ 1'
,1 :
, 2: .J I "'Ien,n. Gun
-\-,:
-, 1

-
2 (4) Butch
2' (16) Center Patt
'1" , 2 117l Combed Back 1.
1
,

2 •
2
2
1351 Beara w'uposea CM
,20) Busny Moustache
21 Clean Shaven
:- 1 :;
: 1 :;
' 1:
- 2 • 11) Broad
: 2:; (2) HIgh Cheekboned
• 2' (3) Long : 1:
TEETH:
: 2: 1991
:
:
, 1:
: : ~: 1201 IoItlllllnUCklt
: 2' 12.1) Hu~hlk\ll
: 2: 110) OIh Sib/Cut I
· 1 " • 2 ' (18) Curlels · 1 • • 2' I 18 I ContuCIOUS : 1: : 2: (4) Oval : 1: : 2: (1) Btle .. : 1: :2= (7) OIh Unit Gun
- 1• 2' (5) Curly - 1 ' 2" (28) o.sq Surd w/Moust : 1: = 2 : (5) Round : 1: : 2: (2) Btoken : 1: :2= (4) AIIlt
- 1 ' '2 ' (19) Dirty - 1 . •2. '38) Fork Beard : 1: = 2 : (6) Square : 1: :;2: (3) ChlP~ : 1: = 2: /22) ScIt&Oll

-- 1 2 (6) Flal Top

• 1 . '2 • (7) Greasy
• 1 • • 2 • (21) Layerl!d
:1
1 . '2

: 1: , 2-
· 2 •
,3) Fu ManChU
1391 FUll Beard
(A4) Full Go;tee
: 1:
: 1:
2 : (7) Thln/Lon9
: 2: (0) Unknown
~ 1:
: 1:
'; 1 :
::2=
:2:
=2:
(4) CrOOked
IS) FI/le
16) ~PI BetwHn
::
:
:
1 ::
1:
1::
' 2: (23) ScrtWdlNtt
:; 2: 15) Shotgun
:2= \1) S,mullt.d

e't-.
- 1 : '2: (8) Military , 1 . :2: (4) Fun GEN APPRNCE: :: 1 : :2: (1) Gold CI"~ : 1: : 2: (24) Telt ~I/Cht
, • 1 . " 2 ' (9) Mohawk , 1 • • 2: IS) Gaalee = 1 : : 2 : (99) :: 1 : :2: (8) JewId/Studd~ : 1: :2: 16) Toy Gun
I . , ' • 2 (10) Ponytail - 1• •2' (25) Handl. Bar : 1 : :2: (1) COlisuai :: 1 : :2: (9) MISSing =1 : • 2: /9) Toy Krul.
•.• 1 - '2 (11) Processed · 1: 2' 1151 Lge Cheek Sideburns : 1 : ;2: (2) Dllty/Unkempt : 1: :: 2: (10) Rtllln., : 1: • 2 ~ ,251 VehICle
_1,
- 1 ' 1 ' 2 (12) Punk
2 \ 20) S,de Part
· 1
1. 2
2" 114 I \.ge Flare S,debums
30) Lge Full Buld
: 1 : =2' (3) Olsgulsed
• 1 : • 2 - (4) FlaShy
: 1 : :: l '
:: 1 : : 2:
tIl) SIlver CI~
(12) S~ln.d Otcyd
:: 1 :: ' 2 :: .• 0) Utlknown

- ! ' 1 ' • 2 113) Straight 1 ' 2 1(6) L9' AevtlSe Fir S9 : 1 ' • 2: (5) Military : 1 : =2= to) Unknown
-I · 1 2 •311 Lqe Rln9 Burd · 1: • 2 ' (6) Welt-Groomed

I
5- COOEj CLOTHING TATTOOS/MARKS/SCARS DESC.
L R HANDED: L R U
5-
. CODE CLOTHING TATTOOS/MARKS/SCARS OESC
L R HANDED: L R U
~ c.o Ha' 1 - C.p/H,I
--
I
I
COlWJk\ 1 -
--- - lor", COII/Jk\
- -- Arm

i Pant. i- - Bock To,.., Pint,

-- -- e.e'" T""4

I Short 1- - Flel Sh'r1

- -- flel
I I
I Sno., 1- - F,oMt To,_o ShOll
- -- Front To"o
"'... --
I
,
\,Iask 1-
;

-- Hind
-- MIn<!

(i/ov.
--
1
(ilov.
-- - ~109

....
1- LI09

J .... ,ly
1- -- Nee~
--
Je .... lry
--
I (;Ju . . .
1- -- ShoulO ..
-
(ita....
- $hould ..

- /- -- -- -- --
I- -
w GANG NAME: I Known: Y N Suspect,d: Y N

WPN TYPE CALIBER LENGTH

e~
FEATURE 1

o
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information contained on the reports. only tha:t information will he

en tereu into the system.

Forced-choice reports greatly simplify data collection and retrieval.

They often contain more descriptive crime and suspect information
than narrative reports and their use is highly recommended.

Intradepartmental Impact:

Changes in source documents or report forms invariably impact an

agency. It will take time for officers to become familiar with new
forms and they may find themselves doing more preliminary
investigation work. These factors alone may lead to discontent. To
ensure that changes are positively received. we offer the following
suggestions:

• Discuss the need for changes with user group members

b efo r e they are implemented. The grou p should be
comprised of representatives from patrol. investigations.
records and any other units. bureaus or divisions that
will be directly affected by the introduction of new
documents. Be sure to include people who are
antagonistic to the forms revision process. They will
keep you on the straight and narrow. Allow all group
members to provide input into the ch~tnge process.

• Explain the need for contemplated c han ::I' e san d the

results expected to result from them. Positive outcomes
may be:

o enhancement of the preliminary investigation pro-

cess

o expedient identification of crime patterns

o development of crime. suspect. vehicle. \10 and

similar files

o ability to provide officers and investigators \\ itl!

suspect leads. case matching and case clearan\.'l'
information

47
o ahility to provide operations rn:lnagers with infor-
mation which can be lISCU 10 dl.!\'clop directed pa-
trol and tactical action plans.

• Develop written training guides lhal explain how ne\\

documents should be completed.

• Attend briefing or roll call sessions to personally answer

questions regarding the documents.

• Meet regularly with supervisors to discuss quality con-

trol concerns, additional training needs. acceptance
issues. and so on.
Interdepartmental Impact:

Source document and repon form revisions will not only impact
membcn: of a law enforcement organization. but those of othl.!r
agencies as \vell. Advise judges. proseclltors. public defendas.
probation ol'fict:rs' and other members of the criminal justice
community of any document changes which are being planned and
give them the opportunity to provide input into the revision process.
At the same time. ask members of the judicial system to review new
documents to ensure that they meet legal requirements.

Data Qualitv Issues:

To be useful. infornwtion must be:

• timely
• reliable
• accurate
• valid.

Timeliness refers to the time it lakes for documents to reach the crirnt:'
analysis unit. Copies of all crime reports. suspect/arrest repons. FI
cards and related documents should be received by the crime analysis
unit within 24 hours of their submission by field and investigati\'~
personnel. Crime analysts can only produce useful material when
provided with fresh information. Unit products describing last week's
or last month's incidents are yesterday'S news and of little value (0
patrol and investigative officers. Without the information needed to
monitor ongoing criminal activity, the analyst is unable to provide
material necessary for the development of directed patrol or tactical

48 "
actiau plans. rr this oCCurs with regularity. operations personnel \vill
eventually vh!w the analyst us unresponsive to their neetl'l and
discontinue their patronage of the crime analysis unit.

The necessity for providing the crime anillysis unit with timely
information should be discussed with patrol. investigative and recordli
bureau managers in the eurly stages of program development. If
necessary, managers should draft new procedures allowing expedient
review, approval and internal processing of documents so that they
can be submitted to the crime analysis unit within 24 hours.

Reliable documents contain the information needed to establish that

an incident did. in fact, occur; explain when, where. how and why it
was committed, and describe the person(s) responsible.

Police documents were unstructured in the past. and narrative

descriptions of incidents were left to the discretion of individual
officers. It was difficult to quickly determine if necessary data
e lemen ts had heen omitted. Docu men t re Ii abi Iity has improved
significantly over the years, and highly structured forms incorporating
"check-off" boxes to capture information are in wide use.

Accuracy refers to the preciseness of information. and to the extent all

information adheres to a standard which is understood by all
organization members. People describe events. concepts, and other
people in :~ wide variety of ways. Based on our own experience. \ve
also interpret things differently. Someone who sports a military
haircut may consider a person with collar-length hair to have "long
haiL" To the person with collar-length hair. hov-.'ever. "long hair " may
be hair that extends to the middle of the back or beyond. While we all
know the age range referred to by the word "teenager." we may not be
as certain of the ages of people described as "young," ",a child", "a
young person." "a youth." "middle age". "elderly" or "old." Someone
who is thirty may be considered "old" to a fifteen year old; those of us
who have seen 30 come and go may not share this perception.
Collecting accurate, standardized, data is important. For the analyst
preparing an analysis of residential burglary. knowing that a suspect
is hitting "homes" will not be nearly as helpful as knowing that they
are one or two story homes. condominiums. apartments. mobile home$,
etc.

Many agencies have developed materials to overcome problems of

interpretation. Such materials often include figures of the hum;lll

49
body and notations as to what will be considered short, medium-
length, and long hair; what part of the body is the shoulder, the upper
arm, etc.; how vehicles and articles of clothing are to be described, and
so on. Development and use of these types of materials by law
enforcement agencies is highly recommended.

Validity refers to the extent that the incident reported is actually the
incident that occurred. We concern ourselves with validity because
we wish to avoid misclassification of criminal events. In California, for
example, someone breaking into a house and stealing a firearm i$
committing burglary. If that same individual steals a gun left lying on
the bench at a public, outdoor shooting range, the crime is theft of a
firearm. If tools are taken from an open, unlocked, garage, the crime
is classified as a burglary. If the same tools were taken from the back
of an open-bed pick-up truck, the crim~ would be classified as a theft.

It is easy to see how misclassification of crimes against property can

occur. But errors can also occur with classifications of crimes against
persons. For example, assume a woman is pushing a shopping cart in a
market and someone snatches her purse from the cart. In California,
the crime is grand or petty theft depending upon the value of the
purse and its contents. If the woman has the purse hanging from her
shoulder when it is snatched-and the woman does not try to resist in
any way-the crime is grand theft person (felony) regardless of the
value of the purse and its contents. If the woman offers any
resistance to the thief, the crime becomes robbery. To complicate
matters further, if it can be proven that the suspect entered the
market with intent to steal a purse, a burglary charge could also be
lodged against the suspect.

Validity of information is important for three reasons. First, it allows

determination of what crimes are actually occurring. This is useful for
planning and budgeting activities. Second, it provides for the
appropriate examination of related incidents and provides the analyst
with uncorrupted data useful for accurately determining patterns of
criminal activity. Third, it can help to distinguish between actual
crime and reported crime. For various reasons, many crimes are
never reported to the police and police administrators never know
exactly how much crime is occurring in their jurisdictions. If reported
crime represents an accurate sample of actual crime, approximations
of total criminal activity can be accurately calculated.

50
Internnl Information Sources:

The following information sources can be found within the

organization:

• Offense Reports - Also known as cri me reports, these

documen ts substan ti ate the occ urrence of cri min al
events and provide the basic information necessary for
analysis. They will tell you what occurred, when and
where it occurred, and provide a general idea of how it
occurred. Speculation as to why the crime was
committed may also be contained in the offense report.
Be cautious in your use of this latter information;
reasons given for why a crime was committed are often
subjective.

• Arrest Reports - These reports often provide extensive

explanation of how crimes were committed. along with
descriptions of ap'prehended suspects. This information
is used to create known offender fi les.

• Field Interview Reports - Completed by field officers to

document suspicious. though not necessarily criminal.
activity. these reports state the nature of the uctivity
and provide a description of people and vehicle(s)
inv0lveu. This information can Inter be used to link
people to people, people to vehicles and people to events.
Field interview reports can assist in providing suspect
leads to investigators. For example. an officer may see
an adult loitering around a closed commercial
establishment at four o'clock in the morning. Although
this is not a criminal event. if the officer notes the
occurrence in ~\ field interview report and it is later
discovered that the eswblishment was burglarized. thL'
interview report m.1Y assist investigators in locating the
possible suspect.

o Sex/Narcotic Registration Forms ~ People convicted of SC\

and nar'!otic violations must register with the rolice
agency iT" the city in which they live. This informatil,)1\
allows you to keep track of convit:ted sex and narcotic of-
fenders and is also used to build known offender filt:s.

51
• Traffic Citations - As with field interview reports, traffic
citations can be used to link suspects to vehicles they
own, register or drive. For various reasons, victims and
witnesses are often unable to provide a physical
description of a suspect (they did not get a good look at
the suspect, the suspect wore a mask, etc.). However, if
they are able to get a description of the suspect's vehicle,
the analyst can run it through the traffic citation file and
often determine the identity of the offender.

• Booking Reports - Completed when a person is booked

into a custodial facility, most booking reports provide
basic information such as date, time and location of
arrest, the offense charged, a complete physical
description of the arrestee, and indications as to whether
he or she was on parole or probation at the time of
arrest, has any medical problems, etc.

• Criminal History Information - Every agency has local

criminal history records of its own arrestees. More
complete information can be found in Record of Arrest
and Prosecution (RAP) sheets usually maintained by
state government agencies. These can be requested by
mail or accessed by computer. Note: Because criminal
history information is protected by law, its improper use
can be a serious offense. Contact the records bureau
supervisor of your agency for information regarding the
training you will need to use it correctly.

• Calls for Service/Dispatch Records - Examination of these

records allows determination of the nature of calls.
response times and peak periods of officer activity. This
is useful in preparing manpower and workload
distribution studies. It may also provide informaf.ion to
assist you in linking suspects and vehicles to various
criminal activities. Finally, you may be able to use calls
for service/dispatch records to establish a relationship
between tripped alarms, prowler or trespass calls and
crime patterns which ~re currently under investigation.

• Investigation.s Reports « Investiga~ive reports provide

the analyst with more comprehensive knowledge of

52
criminal events. The follow-up information contained in
these reports may extensively describe suspects and
their actions and the analyst may be able to better
establish their identities or determine their patterns of
criminal activity.

• Evidence Reports - Physical evidence gathered at the

scene of a crime may also help to identify suspects
and/or indicate the methods by which crimes have been
committed. Among others, the following are considered
to be physical evidence:
o blood

o bullets and other projectiles and/or casings

o clothln oo

o controlled substances (narc~lics and other drugs)

o feces

o fingerprints

o firearrils

o foot pri n ts

o glass

Ohair

o paint

o paraphernalia of various lypes

o semen

o tire markings
o tools and tool markings (also known as pry
marks)
o urine

53
o anything else which may reveal the identity of a
suspect and/or establish his or her presence at a
crime scene.

• Property Reports - These can be used to determine if

suspects have particular preferences for the types of
items they steal (e.g., concealable items such as money
and jewelry; coin or stamp collections; televisions and/or
VCRs, etc.). This information can be useful in identifying
crime patterns and series. Should a suspect be arrested
and found in possession of stolen property, property
records may be of help in linking the suspect to unsolved
cases in which similar items were stolen. This will aid
the case clearance process.

• Victim and Offender Interview Information - Informa-

tion provided by these sources has the potential to be
extremely valuable. However, it must be used with cau-
tion and ca n not be considered accurate without
supporting corroboration. Experienced police officers
w~ll confifhm thfat edyewitnesses arhe oftehn thhe whorst __
WItnesses; t ey 0 ten 0 not see or ear w at t ey t ink
they see or hear. Under the stress of a criminal event.
witnesses may fail to pay attention to some things and
misinterpret others. They often overeslimate or
underestimate the height and weight of suspects, or fail
to notice what they wore. They may also be unable to
state the race of the suspect or to describe scars, marks,
tattoos or other characteristics unique to the suspect.
Descriptions which are given may also be in error. Do
not summarily discount what victims and witnesses have
to say, but be mindful of possible inaccuracies. Make
every effort to obtain independent verification of
statements.

For obvious reasons, offender information is often unreli-

able. Statements made by suspects may be distorted in
an attempt to mislead investigators. to prevent the dis-
covery of other crimes they have committed. or to deny
their participation in a criminal acti vlty. False or
misleading statements of offenders will taint and
complicate an investigation; admissions. however. can be
quite valuable. Admissions that can be substantiated

54
often result in additional case clearanc(:'s. On the other
hand. verified admissions that esta~lish innocence will
eliminate suspects and free officers to continue their
search for the actual perpetrator(s).

Do not accept the admissions of suspects until they can

be verified; there are many demented souls out there
who confess to crimes they didn't commit. Be especially
cautious in the evaluation of the information provided
by these people.

External Sources of Information:

The following agencies are excellent sources of information:

• Other Law Enforcement Agencies - These agencies will

provide want and warrant information. a variety of stan
tistical data and information regarding shared criminals
and p:itterns of criminal activity.

• Parole/Probation Departments - These departments will

keep you informed of incarcerations, releases and the
terms and conditions which have been imposed on
parolees and probationers. Knowing that kno\vn offend-
ers are to be released into the community is extremely
useful. Their files can be reactivated. officers can be
alerted to their pending arrival and the analyst can
watch for anything that might indicate the resumption of
criminal careers.

• Department of ~lotor Vehicles - This agency will provide

comprehensive information relative to ownership and
registration of vehicles and licensing of drivers. It will
also provide accident. traffic violation. and COUf(
disposition data.

• Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) - The FBI main-

tains the National Crime Information Center (NCIC)' a
repository that contains information on everything from
stolen securities. boats and airliners to fugitives reponed
by the Canadian government and Interpol. These data
may be accessed by computer in most agencies.

55
------.---- .. ---

• California Department of Justice - The Criminal Justice

Information System (CnS) is automated and contains
data similar to those contained in the NCIC system.

• California Bureau of Criminal Statistics (BCS) - Upon

request, BCS will provide information on adult and
juvenile arrests, dispositions and other court
information, and comparative crime statistics. Arrest
information can be provided categorically, by sex, age
and race of offenders.

• California State Department of Finance - Population and

census data for your jurisdiction available from this
agency can be useful for trend studies.

• National Institute of Justice (NIJ) - Located m Washing-

ton, D.C., NIJ can provide criminal justice research on
almost any topic and many of their publications are
available without charge. Perusal of NIJ documents will
keep you informed of nationwide criminal justice
concerns and of research being done to address these
concerns.

• Other Federal Agencies - Agencies such as the U.S. Cus-

toms Service; Drug Enforcement Administration; U.S.
Postal Inspection Service; Immigration and Naturaliza-
tion Service; Internal Revenue Service; Bureau of Alco-
hol, Tobacco and Firearms; and the Secret Service can
provide you with specialized information. If any of
these agencies are located near you, make an
appointment to call on their representatives. Explain the
nature of your program and attempt to establish a
relationship that will promote the exchange of
information. If personal visits are not possible, call or
write for information.

• Other Local, State and Federal Automated Data Systems

Other systems throughout each county. state, and the
Federal government provide a wide variety of
information. Consult the information systems manager
of your agency for a listing of the systems available to
you.

56
DATA COLLATION:

Once data are collected. they must be collated. Defined as the

indexing, sorting and storage of raw data, data collation is the next
step in the crime analysis process. 9 Raw data, by itself, is seldom of
much value. Not until like items can be considered together will the
analyst be able to provide meaning to the data. Data collation and
analysis accomplishes this objective.

Consider the following scenario. The analyst comes to work on

Monday morning and finds an unordered pile of reports on the desk;
robbery, burglary, rape and other reports are all mixed. Before the
data can be analyzed, they must be collated. The analyst sorts the
reports, puts all rObbery reports in one pile, burglary reports in
another, and so on. This accomplishes the first step in the data
collation process. To complete the next step in the collation process, he
or she will take all reports of similar incidents and extract data from
them.

The File Development Process;

IIExtracting data" is a process by which similar data are taken from

each crime report and used to develop separate and distinct files (i.e.
suspect files, vehicle files, etc.). After initial files have been created,
the analyst will add data to them.

Law enforcement documents contain many types of data. Categories

considered most useful for crime analysis are those relating to:

• geographic factors

• time factors

• victim descriptors

• property loss descriptors

• physical evidence descriptors

• specific MO factors

• suspect descriptors

57
------- --- --~ --- ---

• suspect vehicle descriptors.

When stored by category, these data ultimately result in the following

files:
• Master Case Files - which contain the times, dates, loca-
tions, types and case numbers of incidents. These are
useful for determining geographic locations of criminal
activity and aid in the identification of existing or
emerging crime patterns and/or series.

• Master Name Files - which contain the names, nick-

names, aliases· of suspects, names of victims and
witnesses; etc.

• Suspect (Known Offender) Files - which contain the

names, addresses and physical descriptions of suspects
and listings of the crimes they have committed (see
Figure 6). They may also contain a description of the
MOs used by suspects.

G Suspect Vehicle Files - whicil contain information re-

garding vehicles suspects may register, own or drive.
Vehicle descriptors include such things as make. model
and color of vehicles as well as any unusual identifying
features (unique paint job, damage to the vehicle. special
accessories, etc.).

• M.D. Files • which contain data describing how crimes

were committed. Among others, M.D. files may include
the actions and statements of suspects; type of weapons
and/or tools used; the type of persons, structures,
businesses or vehicles attacked; method and points of
entry and exit; types of property stolen, and so on.

• Property Files - Contain data necessary to identify

property reported lost, found or stolen. These files
contain listings of types of property (.e.g., photo
equipment), makes and models (e.g., Canon AE-I), serial
numbers, and any identifying markings (e.g., an
engraving of a driver'S license number on the bottom of
a camera). Should a suspect have property in his
possession, the property can be run through these files

58
CKN) POLICE DEPT. PAGEl
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e ·.t.
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---- I

to determine if it has been previously reported stolen or

lost.

• Field Interview (FI) Files - Contains data taken from

docum'ented police contacts though no arrest was made.
FI reports contain name(s) of the person(s) contacted.
physical and vehicle descriptions, and the reason for the
contact. Should the analyst later receive a crime report
in which an offender's physical or vehicle description is
given, the analyst can search this file in an attempt to
find a matching suspect.

Manual Versus Automated Data Collation Methods:

Actual capture and storage of data is accomplished in one of two ways.

It is either handwritten onto matrices developed for this purpose, or
entered into an automated system. Matrices. most often used by
agencies operating in a manual mode. should be individually designed
to capture data elements for only one crime. A robbery matrix should
be designed to capture only robbery data, and a burglary matrix
should be designed to capture only burglary data.

:\1atrices can be cumbersome and time consuming to use; information

has to be written down and analysts must often flip through numerous
pages to retrieve information necessary to produce reports.

These problems are reduced by automated systems for they speed

data collation and retrieval processes. Assume that two analysts are
just starting a crime analysis program. The one who is working in a
manual mode might extract information from all robberies and enter it
in a robbery matrix. This will enable the analyst to track their
progress. Once apprehended. all information relative to suspects will
subsequently be used to create a known robbery offender file.

The crime analyst who is working with an automated system need not
create and keep a matrix to track criminal activity. Depending upon
its programming, the system will generate this information
automatically. This is done through its delivery of the preliminary
case report data that has been entered into it. Additionally.
automated systems simplify the process of creating files. For example.
a suspect need only be entered as a known offender. He Tleed nM be
entered specifically as a robbery offender since the system would
automatically classify him as such. The system makes this

60
determination based upon the preliminary information it receives
from the case report. Thus, once the computer knows that a robbery
report is being entered, it automatically classifies the suspect as n
robbery offender.

Conversely, the analyst who is working in a manual mode will have to

develop a known offender file; MO file, vehicle file and other
descriptive files for each type of crime. He or she will therefore have
several known offender files, several MO files and so on. In contrast,
the automated system may have but one large known offender file,
one large vehicle file, etc. These files contain data which have been
entered for all crimes and thus are not crime specific.

Automated systems greatly simplify and accelerate data collation and

retrieval. Analysts who have to collate and retrieve data manually
will not be able to do it as quickly as those who work with automated
systems and may therefore be unable to focus attention on as many
CflmeS.

Analysts often ask if they should capture the data elements necessary
to analyze all crimes. The answer is no. "The crime analysis operation
.
e should direct its efforts towards those classes of criminal offenses that
the police are most capable of preventing or suppressing. Failing this.
the analytical function should consider those offenses in which the
responsible persons can be apprehended." 10 A review of existing
police crime analysis operations reveals the crimes most applicable to
analysis are:

• burglary

• robbery

• auto theft
• larceny (petty and grand theft)

• fraud
• rape and other sex crimes
• aggravated assaul ts

10 lhid .• p. 11-4. .'

61
• murder.
"Each individual community should analyze its o\\'n crime activity (tl
determine whether crimes should be :tdded. subtrac.:tt:d or e1irnln.lt~d
from this list." 1 1

Data Collation Planning Considerations:

Considerable planning is necessary to ensure that the dtlta collatHHl

process does not become an end in itself. Some analy~ts are kept so
busy entering data into computers or onto matrices thJt they ne\ er
have much of an opportunity to analyze crime; this defeats the cnore
purpose of the cri-r:ne analysis program. In determining what d~lt,1
should be collaled:~ \vhich files should be developed and how the fIle,
should be maintaineo. the following must be considered:

• how many and what type of crimc~ UTe lurgeteJ h't

analysis

• do the crimes selecteu occur frcqul!nll) enough h~

produce recognizable patterns of criminal ucuvJt) tilJ(
can be diminished or eliminated through lml'lement.Hh~c~
of directed patrol or tactical action plan~ e
• does the crime analysis unil have the per,\)nne1 .lfhi Hnl~'
necessary to build and rn~lintain all of the till!' ue\ncd

• is the data to bl! collated specific en\\ugh h\ ~c ~.tt\":;,,"

rized (e.g., can suspects be described In terill' nl delmn:
age ranges as opposed to vague generuhttc... c;.u~h J"
"young" or "old")

• b,i)s the collation and file development pn1CC\\ he!.'" t!;,'*

sfgned to facilitate later retrieval or inf\lrm.Hhlfl

• have files been developed such th.U rel.H1(\fl .. htl" t~~,

tween people, vehicles. and events e.m ~e e't.\l-th,lu.·~i

There is an old computer axiom. "garbuge in, garh.lge OUI.·' 1'hl\ J,\Htm
holdw true for the crime analysis function as welL CllBecuon. CI.,n.llh~n
and categorical storage of accunHe. reliable ~lnd \ ~llh.J tnfOntlJtmn H\ .\

11 Ihid,

62
manner permitting expedient retrieval is essential. Under lesser
conditions, the analysis of crime is not possible.

DATA ANALYSIS:

Iy,p.es of Data Analysis:

Data analysis may be defined as examination and processing of

information that results in the development of recognizable patterns
of criminal activity and in the identification of offenders. It is of two
types:
• Modus Operandi (MO) Pattern Detection and Correlation
• Statistical Analysis

"Modus Operandi (MO) Pattern Detection and Correlation refers

generally to using mapping techniques or searching the various
[manual or automated] files in order to determine if similar offenses or
a crime series are occurring or to correlating cases once an arrest is
made,_" 12 Statistical analysis is done to mathematically establish likely
times, locations and probabilities of future criminal events. It may
also be used to determine relationships between events. Both types of
analysis must be used if the analyst is to provide officers and
investigators with accurate information.

In this chapter we will focus on Modus Operandi (MO) Pattern

Detection and Correlation analysis techniques. Part Two of this book
presents a complete discussion of statistical analysis techniques. The
use of both types of analysis techniques will not only enable you to
comprehensively analyze your data, but will provide validity and
integrity to your conclusions.

Types of Crime patterns;

The task of analyzing data and drawing conclusions from them is, much
like putting a jig·saw puzzle together. The analyst is working with
many data elements that have been gathered from a wide variety of
sources. The goal is to combine the data so that a true "picture" of
criminal activity can be determined. These pictures manifest
themselves in the form of crime patterns. As described below, they
are of two types:

12 I.l2lil..' • II .44

63
~--
----- - -- --~

G4~ographic concentration patterns refer to patterns identified on

the basis of:

• similarity of crime type (e.g., commercial burglary)

• multiple occurrences in well-defined geographic areas.

Identification of a geographic concentration pattern (known more

simply as a "crime pattern") means only that certain types of similar
crimes are frequently occurring in particular areas of the jurisdiction.
Without any other similarities or relationships between these crimes.
there is no reason to believe that the same person or persons are
responsible for their commission.

Specific and recurring MO patterns refer to patterns identified on

the basis of:

• similarity of suspect and/or suspect vehicle descrip ..

tion(s)
• unique MO characteristics.

Once a specific and recurring MO p2ttern has been identified, it is

called a crime series. A crime series is characterized by the presence
of sufficient similarities to give the analyst reason to believe that the
same person or persons are responsible for committing each crime in
the senes.

To demonstrate the difference between a crime pattern and a crime

senes, assume that murders have been occurring in a particular
section of town. In one, a transient was stabbed to death in an alley.
In another. a suspect entered a residence and shot a victim. In still
another. a victim was strangled in a motel room. Some murders
occurred during the day, others occurred at night; witnesses gave
varying descriptions of suspects. This is an example of a crime
pattern. The only similarities between the crimes is crime type
(murder) and the geographical location in which they occurred.

Now let's assume there were various areas throughout a city

frequented by prostitutes. Many of them had been slain at night.
Their throats had been slashed and their bodies severely cut and
mutilated. Several witnesses said they had seen "a well-dressed
gentleman in evening clothes" leaving each area shortly before the
bodies were found. In this fictional scenario of London near the end of
the 19th century. the "gentleman" became known as Jack the Ripper.

64
Because of the uniqueness of his MO and the similarity by which he
was described by witnesses, he had committed a crime series and
thus, by definition, was a "serial killer."

Had crime analysts been around in lack's day, they would have known
that they were observing a crime series for several reasons. First, the
murderer was attacking prostitutes, a very specific type of victim.
Second, all of the murders occurred at night. Third, all of the victims
were killed with the same type of weapon-a knife or similar cutting
instrument. Fourth, in addition to cutting the throats of his victims,
the murderer used the knife to further mutilate their bodies. Fifth,
enough witnesses described the suspect as being a well-dressed
10

gentleman in evening clothes" to give reason to believe that this

individual, whomever he was, was indeed the person responsible for
committing the crimes.

Though Jack the Ripper, the Zodiac killer, the Night Stalker and other
such persons generate headline news, crime analysts throughout the
nation observe less noteworthy crime series on a daily basis. In every
series, notorious or mundane, there will usually be something unique
to the commission of each crime. The identification of that
"something" will serve to indicate that the crimes are being commined
by the same person(s).

Crime Pattern/Series Detection - Manual TechniQues;

Geographic concentration patterns can be identified if the analyst

places color coded dots on maps to indicate locativns of criminal
incident occurrences. Known as spot maps, these devices facilitate the
visual identification of crime patterns (Figure 7).

For example, assume that blue dots represent commercial burglaries.

Each time a commercial burglary occurs, the analyst places a blue dot
on a map of the jurisdiction. The time and date of each occurrence is
written on each dot. Over time,' these dots may begin to cluster in a
particular area. The appearance of these clusters will alert the analyst
to the emergence of a crime pattern. Its continuance or cessation can
be determined by the dates listed on the dots.

Spot maps can be of grea,t assistance to the analyst. However. they

will only depict crime patterns. The analyst will have to look for
additional clues to determine if a crime pattern is also a crime series.
In our current example, the map wil~ only tell the analyst that he or

65
CHINO VALLEY
Figure 7 CHAMBE~ Of COMMERCE
I J 13~ Cenlrll Avenue
ChIno, CA 9 171 0
1~1 627·6117
-~--
--~-- -
-------~-

she has a commercial burglary pattern. Whether or not it is also a

crime series is yet to be determined.

For the analyst who is working in a manual mode, this determination

will be made upon examination of the data contained in his or her
commercial burglary matrix. This matrix would have been created as
part of the data collation process described above.

Lefs assume that, upon review of the matrix, the analyst notes that
there have been ten commercial burglaries in the past month (see
Figures 8 and 9). Five of them were burglaries of pharmacies and five
were of various other establishments. Of the five pharmacy
burglaries, three showed definite similarities. Each of the three was
committed between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, had
evidence of rooftop entry, drugs were stolen, and storeroom safes
were pried open. Having observed these similarities, the analyst
would be able to confirm the existence of a crime series. He or she
would then take the information from these three cases and use it to
create. a separate log to track the progress of the series (see Figure 10).
All future c~currences would be placed in the log and the log would be
maintained until the series stopped or the suspect(s) were
apprehended.

Crime calendars can also manually track crime series. The analyst
takes a calendar that has a one to two inch square box for each day of
the week. Whenever a new crime in the series is committed, the
analyst makes a note of it on the day of its occurrence (see Figure 11).
By flipping through the calendar, the analyst can easily determine how
many days elapse between "hits. ItCrime calendars, when used in
conjunction with spot m3?S and matrices, provide the information
necessary to determine possible dates, times and locations of future
serial events.

This entire task is made easier for the analyst working with an
automated system. "InsJead of devoting time to maintaining
cumbersome and lengthy files, the information is entered into the
computer and is available for instant recall whenever necessary. This
approach saves not only data input time, but if the sort routines are
effectively written, can save data extraction time by allowing the
analyst to search and retrieve just the information wanted on an

67
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e e
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appropriately formatted report." 13 Thus, in our current example, the
analyst using an automated system would merely query the system
and request a report of all commercial burglaries in which one or more
data elements are common.

One caution is directed to analysts working in large agencies: try to

narrow initial search requests. In the above example, it would be
inefficient to ask the system for all commercial burglaries committed
betw(~en Tuesday nights and \Vednesday mornings. Hundreds of cases
may have been returned! It would be better to ask the system to
provide any cases containing two or more matching MO characteristics.
By requesting information in this manner, the system would return
only cases in which:

rooftop entries had been made AND safes had been pried

- safes had been pried AND drugs had been stolen

- rooftop entries had been made AND drugs had been

stolen
,,:

- other MO matches had been found.

If it is felt that the information returned is inadequate and the scope

of the search was too narrow, the parameters can later be broadened.

Once you are satisfied with the data you have obtained, these data can
be stored away in a separate computer file. This file is analogous to
the log kept by the analyst working in a manual mode. And, just as
that individual would add updated information relative to subsequent
pharmacy burglaries to the written log, so would you add this type of
data to your computer file.

Taq~et Profile Analysis:

Target Profile Analysis, also known as victim profile analysis, is an

attempt to identify the type of person, structure, vehicle or
establishment most likely to be attacked by a suspect. Knowledge of a
suspect's preferences for certain types of victims may enable the
police to stake-out (or otherwise observe) possible locations of future

13 Samson K. Chang. ~,..il.. Crime Analysis. System Suppoo: Descriptive Report

of Manual and Automated Crime Anillysis Functions. (International Association
of Chiefs of Police). p. 3.

72
---------

activity. This may subsequently lead to the arrest of the offender. At

the same time, crime prevention officers can use this information to
warn possible victims of their vulnerability to attack.

In our present scen:lrio. a target profile analysis would reveal that the
suspect(s) had a preference for pharmacies. This information would
be given to patrol and investigative officers and used in the creation of
directed patrol and/or tactical action plans. Crinie prevention officers
would use the information to inform other pharmacy owners of the
crime series and admonish them to take whatever precautions
necessary to prevent victimization' (e.g., better secure roof vents,
empty the safe at night, put the emrty safe near a well-lit window,
etc.).

Forecasting Future Criminal Occurrences:

Forecasting future criminal occurrences requires examination of all

material the analyst has gathered to this point a nd its subjection to
statistical analysis treatment as described in Part Two of this book. By
considering what. when. where, and how past crimes were
committed-in tandem with the preference of the suspect to attack a
certain type of target-the analyst may be able to predict the time.
date and location of future criminal activity.

This is the desired goal of the crime analyst. but it is very difficult to
achieve. Suspects may change locations, may no longer have a need to
commit their crimes and so on. When changes occur. the analyst is left
with a prediction that fails to materialize, a frustrating experience for
analysts and officers alike.

Use care in making predictions. Officers are counting on you to be

right-wrong "guesses" resulting in wild goose chases will seriously
reduce your credibility.

Suspect Identification:

The analyst attempts to identify suspects through a crimc/sllspect

correlation process. This process involves searching files of previously
arrested persons, examining the MOs they used to commit thl:!ir
crimes, and then determining if they might be responsible for crime(s)
currently urtder analysis.

73
-----------------------------.~

Continuing with our current example, let's assume that our drug store
burglar has been arrested by the agency i~ the past for burglary. The
offender's name, physical description, etc. would be contained in the
analyst's MO file. A search of this file~fo!- previously arrested persons
who ha.d committed commercial rooftop burglaries would likely reveal
the suspect's identity. The suspect might also be found in any file
which contained the names of persons arrested in conjunction with
safecracking incidents.

Similarly, depending upon how they are structured. known offender

files may provide suspect identities. If offender files allow inquiry by
crime type, as well as by name, suspect identification is relatively
easy. The analyst merely looks at the commercial burglary category
and notes the names of all persons arrested for rooftop burglaries of
pharmacies. He or she will then look to see if any of these people also
pried a safe during the commission of the offense.

Searches of suspect description files and suspect vehicle files will also
facilitate the suspect identification process as long as there is
something un i que about the suspect or the vehicle being sought.
Broad searches for white males between 35 and 40 or late-model red
Chevrolets will prove unproductive. Conversely, searches for people
and vehicles having unique identifying features can produce usable
e
results.

Case Matchini:

Case matching, also known as "case correlation," t~kes place after a

suspect has been arrt!sted. In this activity, the analyst considers the
offense for which the arrest was made and then attempts to link the
suspect to similar unsolved crimes. To conclude our example, assume
that the drug store burglar is finally arrested. Once a check has' been
made of offense files, the analyst will discover the other three cases
for which he may be responsible. This information can then be given
to investigators for use in the case clearance process.

DATA DISSEMINATION:

Data dissemination may be defined as the distribution of crime

analysis information which is used to develop directed patrol and
tactical action plans. assist continuing investigations and crime
prevention efforts. and fadlitate the accomplishment of general
administrative, operational, and organizational planning tasks.

74
GQals of Data Dissemination:

There are two goals associated with data dissemination. These are:

• To provide information th,at can be used or acted upon

by others

• To enhance communication between people within and

without the organization.

Product Development Planninfj CODsiderations;

Most frequently, data are disseminated through written products

developed by the analyst. While some are published for the benefit of
specific individuals or units within the department, others may be
used by all members of the organization.

It is not uncommon for new crime analysts and their supervisors to

rush the product development process. However, in their haste to "get
",
something out," they often fail to provide information that truly meets

• the needs of intended customers. This can be avoided by obtaining

answers to the following questions:
• Who are the intended users of information?
others, they may include:
Among

o patrol officers and patrol supervisors

o investigators and investigative supervisors
o tactical action teams
o training officers
o communications/dispatch personnel
o budget/other administrative analysts
o executives and other command staff off3cers
o prcsecutors, probation and parole officers and other
outside agency personnel.
• What are the informational needs? Among others. there
may be a need for:

75
o general crime summary information
o crime pattern information
o crime series information
o crime trend information
o known offender/career criminal or ho.buual
offender information
o suspects wanted information
o gang, narcotics or other ·special prohlem inlornuUH.)n
o stolen vehicle information
o warrant information
o parole/probation information
o

o
pawn information
daily, weekly. monthly or yearly crime
crime prevention presentation data
$UUlSUC~ •
o calls for service statistics. manpower and \l,corU~JJ
statistics, officer arrest and citahon stausucs. et.~
• What products will meet those needs? Among othen.
products to be considered may be:
o Daily Bulletins
o Crime Pattern/Crime SenesBulJetms
o Known Offender Bulletins
o Parolee Bulletins
o Weekly Statistical Crime Summaries
o Monthly Statistical Crime Summane~

o Wanted Persons Bulletins

76
o Warrant Lists
o Arrest/FI Summaries
o Crime Prevention Statistical Bulletins

o Gang/Narcotic/Unique Offense Special BUl-

letins.

• How would personnel like information presented? For-

mats include:
o narrative format
o graphic format
o narrative and graphic format
o memorandum format
() "newspaper" or other unique format.
• What data are required to produce products?
o all crime, MO and suspect data or only that for cer-
tain designated crimes? If the latter, for which
crimes?
o response time and calls for service data?
o officer arrest and citation statistics?
o population, geographic and economic data?
o intelligence data?

• Other considerations such as:

C) what type of graphs, charts. matrices. etc. will have
to be developed to capture data needed to produce
products?
o should documents be printed on standard size pa-
per or breast-pocket cards, 2 or 3 hole punched.
printed on colored paper, etc.?
o how often will various products be published?

77
o how much time will it take to create products?
o does the crime ~.\nalysis unit have the. necessary re-
sources to publish the products requested?
o of what value is each product-very helpful, some-
what helpful, nice to have, will be used occasionally.
not helpful?
o what is the likely return on investment from each
product? Is it worth the time and effort to do it'?
Would the operation be hampered without it'?
Instead of creating products on their own, analysts should initially
meet with management and staff from throughout the organization to
ensure that products ultimately developed will, in fact, meet user
needs. For each user group, the analyst should document:
• which products are needed
• the purpose of each product
• the information needed for each product
• product dissemination requirements.
Types of Products:

The number and types of crime analysis products which could be

created is limited only by the imagination of the analysts who create
tnem. Refer to !he appendix of this book for examples. The most
uni versally used, however, are those described in the followi ng
paragraphs;

Daily Bulletins are used to provide general crime summary

information. They contain information taken from rer.ent crime and
arrest reports and may include n~,eworthy FI data as well. They may
also contain alert and comment messages, missing persons
information, all points bulletin information. extra patrol requests and
crime and/or suspect information which has been contributed from
outside agencies. Daily bulletins may also be used to keep officers
familiarized with happenings throughout the Department (e.g., notice
of promotional examinations, upcoming unit vacancies. etc.) and to
congratulate them for a good arrest, investigation and so on.

78
There are some precautions that should be taken when publishing a
daily bulletin. First, be sure the information it contains is timely. Do
not print old material if you know or suspect it may be stale. Officers
will not only stop reading the bulletin if it frequently contains
yesterday's news, but may also assume that you are either behind in
your work or uninformed. Neither assumption will enhance your
credibility. Second, some analysts use the Daily Bulletin as a catchall.
There is nothing wrong with this so long as it does not become difficult
to use, too lengthy to read, and continues to contain information of
interest. Officers do not have time to search through the bulletin
looking for crime, suspect and other pertinent information. Make sure
they get the information they need to have, and present it in an easy
to read format.

Crime Pattern and Crime Series Bulletins contain information

relative to the continuing occurrence 'of particular criminal activities.
They acquaint officers with the types of crimes being committed, list
the days, times and locations of their occurrence and provide officers
with .any known suspect, suspect vehicle, MO and/or property loss
information. Information concerning the preferred target of attack
(victim and/or property) should also be included, as should results of
past analyses or predictions as to when and where the suspect(s) may
strike again. Bulletins should be updated until suspects are arrested
or the pattern/series comes to an end.

Crime pattern and crime series bulletins will most often. be used by
patrol officers to create directed patrol or tactical action pi.ans. Patrol
officers must, therefore, be given as much information as possible to
enable them to develop a strategy which effectively deals with the
problem. This may be accomplished by providing officers with a
narrative description of incidents, a map depicting past and possible
future locations of occurrence, and any graphs which clarify the
problem.

Known Offender Bulletins are circulated to keep officers informed

of the whereabouts and activities of previously arrested persons.
They are particularly helpful for tracking movements of gang
members, sex and narcotic offenders, career criminals and other such
habitual offenders. These bulletins include pictures and descriptions
of offenders, list their vehicles, last knewn addresses, past offenses,
"hang-outs" and known associates and outline their MOs. They may
also provide terms and conditions of probation or parole as weIl as
brief criminal histories.

79
---------_._-- --~

Known offender bulletins must be distributed with caution. An

officer's overzealous and indiscriminate use of them to merely "hassle"
a known offender may bring charges of police harassment. Further,
state and federal privacy statutes protect the use and dissem;nation of
criminal history information. Should it be retrieved from a trash can
by someone at the local car wash, for example, or otherwise fall into
the wrong hands by some other means, a suit could be initiated
against the department.

Parolee Bulletins may be used for much the same purpose as

Known Offender Bulletins. Parolee information is obtained from the
state's Parole Department and is used to inform officers of former
prisoners being released into the community. Parolee bulletins may
also be circulated whenever a parolee from another community moves
into the jurisdiction. As with Kno~n Offender Bulletins, Parolee
Bulletins should contain a picture of the offender along with all
applicable supplemental information. Special terms and conditions of
parole should be mentioned as well. Caution is similarly advised in
the publication and use of this document, for it, too, contains sensitive
information which is protected by law.

Parolee information can be best obtained from parole officers. Get to

know them well. Create a "drop-in for coffee" atmosphere that
encourages these officers to provide you with updates on their clients.

Parolee bulletins should be updated whenever a parolee who has been

named in a previous bulletin is released from parole, is arrested for
another crime or has a change in his or her terms and conditions of
parole.

Weekly Statistical Crime Summaries are prepared for

management and executive staff and are used to show the number
and percentage of crime increases or decreases on a weekly basis.
Though they can be completed for every offense, these reports are
most frequently prepared to monitor changes in the rates of certain
targeted crimes. Crimes frequently selected for inclusion are
homicide, rape, robbery, assaults, burglary, petty and grand theft. and
auto theft.
.
Although this report can be prepared to reflect crime rate changes
throughout the whole of the jurisdiction, it is helpful if it is prepared
on a shift-by-shift basis. This allows patrol supervisors the

80
opportunity to more accurately assess the impact of thcir officers on
crime problems and may point to a need to develop directed patrol
plans to abate any escalating criminal activity occurring during their
tours of duty.

In tandem with the statistical data, patrol supervIsors should be

provided with a supplemental crime summary sheet. This sheet
should list the crimes which have occurred during the week, their
dates, times and locations and any suspect or suspect vehicle
information which can be provided.

Monthly Statistical Crime SUl11maries are prepared for

management and executive staff and a~e"" used to show the number
. ,.or
and percentage of target crime incre'aseS . decreases on a monthly.
basis. Current month statistics for each' target crime are compared
with those posted for the same month of the previous year. Year-to-
Date figures are also included in the summary.

Assume that the summary was being completed for ~1ay 1989. At the
far left of the summary would be a column that lists the types of
crimes being reported upon. To the right of each crime would be the
number of incidents posted during the current month. Next to that
number would be the number of incidents posted during the same
month of the prcvious year. This would be followed by the numerical
change and percentage difference between them.

Under the Year-to-Date heading would be a column showing the total

number of crimes which occurred for each separate crime type from
January through May 1989. This would be followed by year-to-date
information drawn from January through May 1988 (the same time
period of the previous year). The numerical change and percentage
difference between these figures '~would then be calculated and
reflected on the report. . : .'

An accompanying supplemental report should also be prepared to

provide management and executive staff with the location. date. time
of day, and day of the week each crime occurred during the month
under review. Graphic displays can I:imilarly be used to depict
monthly occurrences by time of day, day of week. and shift.

Wanted Persons Bulletins are prepared and cin....llated on an "a~

needed" basis. They state the crime for which an individual is wanted.
list the date, time and location of occurrence. and give an explanation

81
-----------------------~ -- ----

of the MO used. These bulletins also contain physical descriptions of

the wanted person and, depending upon availability, other identifying
information (e.g., vehicle descriptions(s), locations frequented,
associates, crime and weapons history, etc.). A photograph, sketch or
"Identi-Kit" composite picture of the suspect may similarly be
included. Once the suspect is apprehended, an update bulletin should
be disseminated to cancel his or her wanted status.

\Varrant Lists may be d~stributed on a weekly or monthly basis.

Arrest warrants are provided by courts to jurisdictions they serve.
However, they may also be received by mail or Teletype from other
outside law enforcement agencies. Warrant lists contain the name of
the person listed on the warmnt, his or her physical description and
last known address, the number of the warrant, the bail, the date of
issue, the file number. and the offense charged. Should it be desired,
the name of the court and authorizing magistrate may be listed as
well. Once a warrant is cancelled. or the individual named on a
warrant is taken into custody, a warrant cancellation notice should be
published.

Arrest/FI Summaries are used to keep officers and investigators

apprised of people who have been arrested or had some son of
documented contact with police over the period of a week or month.
The arrest section of the summarv will list the name of the arrestee.
his or her physical description, the location, date, and time of arrest.
the name of the arresting officer and a brief explanation of the
offense charged. This may be presented in a one-line ledger format.
The FI summary section will provide the same type of information
with the exception of its explanation of a contact as opposed to an
arrest. It should also provide information regarding any vehicle or
associates that may have been with the person at the time of the
encounter.

Most officers Jove to make arrests, but some do not want to take the
time to complete FI reports. This is detrimental to the crime analysis
operation, for the intormation provided by FIs can be extremely useful
to the analyst. Arrest and FI summaries can be used to list arrest and
FI occurrences, and to congratulate officers for their work and
initiative. Everyone likes to see his or her name in print. This is your
chance to give public recognition for effort-take advantage of it!

Crime Prevention Statistical Bulletins are prepare,d on an "as

needed basis" and are provided to help crime I?revention officers

82
customize presentations to neighborhood and business watch or block
groups. These most often contain crime statistics which have been
posted over a specific period of time for certain beats or reporting
districts. Among others, these bulletins may provide area-specific
information regarding numbers of domestic violence incidents, elderly
persons victimization, and the nature of crimes occurring in any
particular part of town.

Crime prevention officers can also use information provided by the

crime analysis unit to ascertain the validity of citizen complaints. For
example, someone may complain that crime is running rampant and
that patrol cars are never seen in their area. By checking calls for
service and offense files the analyst may be able to determine that
perhaps only one or two crimes have been reported in the area over
the past six months. Further, there may have been a reduction in the
area's crime rate over last year. Thus, the statement that "crime is
running rampant" may be more the perception of the complainant
than a definite fact. On the other hand, people may feel that crime is
plaguing the neighborhood because they "always see cop cars in the
area." Once again, a report prepared by the crime analyst may show
that patrol units have frequently been in the area, but for reasons
unrelated to crime. It may be that an officer followed a traffic violator
off of the freeway and finally got him stopped in the neighborhood in
question. Perhaps officers towed abandoned vehicles from the area or
were seen answering a barking dog call. Officers may have responded
to the neighborhood to assist an invalid who had fallen out of bed,
take a missing persons report~ make a death notification, or to handle
any number of other service calls. W'ith this information, the crime
prevention officer can explain the reasons for the presence of police in
the area and assure the complainant that his or her neighborhood is
not being victimized by crime.

Crime complaints which are justified can be brought to the attention of

patrol supervisors for their development of whatever directed patroi
and/or tactical actions plans may be necessary. At the same time. the
crime prevention officer can work with citizens to form neighborhood
watch groups, better secure residences, and give citizens the
information they need to prevent future victimization.

Gang/Narcotic/Unique Offense Special Bulletins ar ... often

published for use by intelligence officers, although they may be
disseminated to patrol and investigative officers as well. These may
be used to provide information regarding the activities and arrests of

83
gang members. major narcotics violators or any other group of
targeted offenders, or to familiarize personnel with the occurrence of
a particularly unique criminal offense.

Because it is a "special" bul!ctin. the information presented should bl:

"special." Circulated too frequently with information that could be
more appropriately included in the publications listed above, special
bulletins lose impact.

Product Development - Technical Considerations:

The following technical considerations should be given to product

development:

• Each should accomplish a specific function. Do not try to

make one product aU things to ail people

• Disseminate documents on a timely basis

• When preparing a document for an individual or a par-

ticular user group. try to think of others in the organiza-
tion who might benefit from its use (e.g .• crime preven-
tion officers will appreciate receIvIng crime pat- . tit
tern/crime series bulletins. communications/dispatch
personnel will find it helpful to have copies of wanted
persons bulletins and warrant lists. etc.).

• Include admonishments on publications which direct of-

ficers to verify that suspects are sti II wan ted and war-
rants are still valid before making arrests. This will pre-
vent those little embarrassing moments!

• Do not become overly attached to your products. If they

are not being read or accomplishing their function. either
redesign or eliminate them from your literary repertoire.

• Be sure that information presented is complete. accurate

and devoid of spelling and grammatical errors.

• Use an easy-to-read format. When in doubt about the

size of print to use. set it bigger (pcnpk havc a hard time reading SOlJlI
IYPC). Clutter does not improve readability. Don't feel
obligated to cover an entire page with words. And
whenever possible. treat blank space as a friend.

84
• Select formats that are both neat and attractive,. Also.
• design them so that they are easily recognizable as crime
analysis products. Consider the use of a special logo for
this purpose. You may also wish to use different colored
paper for each each publication.

• Unless graphs are truly self-explanatory, do not use

them without accompanying narrative. Similarly. it is
rarely advisable to provide long lists of data without an
explanation of their meaning. Officers don't have time to
take raw data and draw conclusions from it. Therefore.
pr0~ide them with data that has. in fact. been analyzed.
Use your products to simply tell them what you want
them to know. Don't make them figure it out for "
themselves.

product Distribution Techniques:

Products may be distributed to personnel in a variety of ways. In

many agencies. products are simply placed in patrol officers'
mailboxes. Should this prove too time consuming. they can be placed
in the briefing or roll call area. Products should also be placed on the
briefing .board so that they may be commented upon by briefing or
roll call supervisors. If officers carry notebooks, be sure the products
are designed to fit neatly within them.

Though you may distribute products to officers each day. be sure your
contact with them is not limited to the printed page. Attend the
briefing sessions of all shifts occasionally and verbally descri be the
nature of curren t criminal even ts.

Investigators and their supervisors may also receIve products by mail.

However, when possible. it is recommended that you deliver your ...
'",."
products in person. This enables you to discuss the product and
solicit suggestions for improvement. In the process. you will b~
demonstrating your desire to be of assistance while taking advantage
of an opportunity to enhance your credibility.

While there is no argument that management and executive staff

should receive crime analysis products. the question sometimes arises
as to w Iz e n they should receive them. It is almost universally
accepted that they should be immediately informed of major criminal
events. However. there is debate about less pressing issues. For

85
example, many patrol supervisors would prefer that management and
executive staff receive crime pattern/crime series bulletins ten to
fourteen days after they are initially published. This gives them the
opportunity to resolve a problem before it comes to tbe attention of
the chief or ~heriff. Thus, when later asked about it, they are able to
explain what action was taken and what results were realized from
the efforts of their officers.

The issue, of course, is the avoidance of embarrassment. No

supervisor wants to appear ignorant or uninformed in the presence of
the chief executive. If the chief or sheriff is informed of a problem at
the same time as it is made known to lower level staff, the way is
paved for the following scenario:

"May I see you in my office, Lt. Tackleberry?"

"Yes Sir, may I help you?"

"I certainly hope so. I just received this Crime Series Bulletin
from the crime analysis unit. It says that burglars are carrying
off half the city during your shift. What do you know labout
this?"

"Uh, urn, well, Sir, I, ah, just got my bulletin this morning, too. I.
ah, well I really haven't had an opportunity to, ah, well really
look into it fully, Sir."

"I'm surprised, Tackieberrry. I'd certainly think you would

know what's happening on your shift! That's not an
unreasonable expectation, is it? What do you plan to do about
it?"

At this point, little beads of sweat are forming on L t.

Tackleberry's brow. He's ·feeling many things. Love for the
crime analysis unit is not among them.

"Uh, well Sir, I'm not exactly sure what, ah, I mean I am going to
do something about it, but, ah, well, if you could just give me a
little time, Sir, then I feel pretty sure that, I mean I know t hat
my officers and I can solve this little problem."

"I hope so, Tackleberry. I'll be checking the unit's update

bulletins to see how you're coming along."

86
Cndoubtedly, Lt. Tackkbcrry will handle the problem. However. his
embarrassment could have been avoided if he had been given the
information nnd had a chance to do something with it prior to its
receipt by the chief. \Vhcn questioncd. he could have told the chief
that he was indeed aware of the burglaries and had implemented
various directed patrol and tactical action plans to deal with them. He
could then cite the results he achieved.

It should not be inferred from this discussion that delaying the

delivery of information to executives is synonymous with trying to
keep or otherwise hide information from them. Rather, it is to give
lower level staff the opportunity to quickly address (and hopefully
resolve) problems before executive intervention becomes necessary.

Management and executi ve staff members wi II ul ti matel y decide for

thenlsclves when they wish to receive crime analysis products. If it is
to be at the same time as others in the organization. then the analyst
must make lower levcl staff aware of that fact. This "advance
warning" may cue them to familiarize themselves with these materials
at the'ir earliest opportunity.

~lanagement and executive staff will usually receive routine products

through inter-office mail. However, they may request that any
products or information prepareu for their specific use be personally
delivered by the analyst. Whatever their preference. accommodate
them.

Some analysts use video presentations to keep personnel informed of

criminal activities. For example. crime reinactment programs can be
used to visually describe the nature of existing or emerging crime
patterns, Programs desi gned to fami liarize officers wi th gang
members. career criminals and other such known offenders can also
be developed. as can present~ltions which describe current suspects
wanted by the agency. Finally. video presentations can be used to
recognize officers for good arrests. investigations and so on.

Video presentations work well if they are professionally d0ne. But if

they look like they were made by loving hands at home. they wiil
usually elicit more laughter than interest. Additionally, they are
extremely time consuming to prepare and generally cannot be created
without the assistance of several people. Thus. unless you have the
equipment. expertise. time and personnel resources necessary to

87
professionally accomplish this task. it is recommended that it be
bypassed in favor of other activities which might be more productive.

Finally, products which are to be dh;seminated to agencies outside of

the organization may either be mailed to them or given to their
representatives at interdepartm.ental user groups meetings. Items
containing information of an urgent or immediate nature may be
"faxed" to them as wei I.

FEEDBACK:

Feedback may be defined as information resulting from the

establishment of formal and informal communication processes
implemented to determine the accuracy, reliability, validity, timeliness
and overall usefulness of crime analysis products and services.

Need for Feedhack:

A significant amount of resources are expended in the establishment

and maintenance of a crime analysis program. As such, there comes a
point when crime analysis. too, must be evaluated. The feedback
process helps executives and unit members accomplish this task.

Formal Feedhack \:1ethnd,,:

Formal methods involve development of Request for Information and

Feedback forms. These should be completed any time information or
service is requested from or provided by the crime analysis unit.
Request forms Iist the nature of the information or service desired and
the purpose for which it is to be used (Figure 12). Feedback forms
reflect the type of information or service rendered by the unit and the
results obtained from its use (Figures 13 and 14). Various
"housekeeping" items such as the name of the requestor. the date of
the request. the unit's turnaround time and so on should similarly be
included on the forms. Additionally. logs should be developed to truck
the receipt of feedback information.

Experience has shown thut officers may not request information if

they have to fi II out Reg uest and Feedback forms. It is therefore.!
recommended that they be allowed to verbally state their request!'
and feedback results while the analys~ writes them down.

88
Figure 12
STANISLAUS COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTIvIENT
CRIME ANALYSIS •
~fEQl9~Su fO~ ~fr\sJfO~~Jlj\l~Oil\j

DATE: REQUEST NO:

REQUESTED BY:

TYPE oP REOUEST
OrFE.NDER INFORMATION
_ SUSPEcr DEVELOPMENT (TO DEVELOP NAME LEADS) BY ,PHYSICAL DlSClUPTION

_ SUSPEcr DEVELOPMENT (1'0 DEVELOP NAME LEADS) BY VEHICLE DESCRIPnON

_ CASE MATCHINO nmOUGH SUSPEcr DESCRIPTION

CRIME INFORMATION
_ GENERAL ANALYSIS OF CRlMES wrnnN A SPECIFIC AlU?A DURING A SPECIFIC TIME

_ PA'ITERN ANALYSIS (D.ETER.MINE CRIME TRENDS BY MO. OR SUSPEcr DlSOUPTION)

OTHER INFORMATION
_ MATO{ PROPERTY RECOYE.REO AGAINST REPORTS OF STOI.E.N PROPERn"
_ STATISTICS ON CRIME TYPE(S) FOR COMMUNITY MEETINGS, MEDIA INFORMATION,
BUDGET PURPOSES, ETC.
_ OPERATIONS ANALYSIS INFORMATION (FOR DEPLOYMENT AND AU..OCATION OP
RESOURCES. MAY INCLUDE WORKLOAD DlSTRlBtmON QUESI'IONS, BEAT SURVEYS
CASB MANAGE.MF.NT QUP.STIONS ETC.)

SPECIFIC INFORMATION REQtn?SI'ED AND PURPQS2:

IN TIm SPACE BELOW, STATB YOUR REQUEST AND WHAT INFORMATION YOUR HAVE..
EX: I AM LOOKING R>R SUSPEcr DESCRIBED AS WMA. 2()'15, '·10 TO 6-0, 1.~()'170, PLEASE
SEARCi YOUR lA.NUAR Y Fn..ES FOR ANY PAR'IlC'UI..AR CR.IME PATI"E.RNS, ETC

FOR CRIME ANALYSIS USE ONLY:

..

89
SAN DIEGO SHERIFF'S DEPARTMENT
CRI1'r:E A!:JALYSIS UNIT
FIGURE 13
REOUEST FOF: rEEDE.ACr~
TO:
Career
· .
Cnrnlnc, I Dl\'l'£ :

program
Recently you received information fran Cr:i.rrc l\nalysis. To rronitor our effectiveness
and irrprove our services to you, VP- need your feedbnck. Pleci.!3e ars~ the follONing
questions and return this form by

1. was the information useful? DyES o ~XJ

If not, . . .'hy?
2. Did this informl tion assist in:

CI RI::::U::'I'ION OF QU}1E U SUSPIrl' ELD1INJ\1'JCN 0 SUSPECl' IDE..'.l::.'rFICATICN

o DReG S£I.ZURE $ 0 pnOPEY,''l''f REID/FRY $_ __

LI DEVELOPH~,T OF LF.J\DS C1 DlFOi-'..v..,\TICN VEJUFIO~l'JorJ n Ol~!~~

-----
3. ~:.Js tr.e inform.ition US€-d to establish sp?Cinl tuct.ics? o YI':S c ~XJ
o D~'ID PNI'ROL

o l:!.DE!\'CO'IEH lJNTI' CI SURVELLLA'a

o n~::::r\E.:;SED PUBLIC can:r..cr CI OlHEh

4. Did the informa tion result in an arrest ? o YES

If yes, please list name(s) and chnrge(s):

NAME OiARGE

5. Did the inforTIntion rcsul t in c."l!'">O cl (~,H·i.lnL"e? eN)

If yes, please list C.1SC nllntcr(::;) nne'! crim~ typ."!:

CASE # an.MR

6. If t:.hc in[orln::ltion WLlS }';::MINI~:;'l1v,\,l'IVT': in ni1turc 'M,'!', it 1l!"..0d [or:

o PNrnDL l-Vl.l'.V\GI*NI' 0 'I"RAFFJC Mt\."lI\GI:"![·NI' CJ INV'ESTIC...,\'l'lVE t-w~".c;;!}m'e

o M£DTl\ HEU{rr.ONS 0 0ill1E rm;;""'r':ll'J~ Li omF:!{

90
STANISLAUS COUNTY SHERlFFS DEPARTMENT
. CRThlE ANALYSIS
Figure 14

TO: CRThtE ANALYSIS u~1T DATE:

FROM: RFl#:

RECENTLY YOU WERE PROVIDED DATA FROM THE CR.l1vfE ANALYSIS UNIT. TO
INSURE WE ARE PROVIDING YOU THE DATA :Y.Q!l NEED, YOUR FEEDBACK TO
TIlE UNIT IS VITAL. PLEASE COMPLETE TInS FORM AND RETURN IT TO US
WITI-IIN 15 DAYS OF RECEIPT .

••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
PLEASE COMPLETE ALL SEmONS

WAS THE INFORMATION PROVIDED USEFUL?

IF NOT, WHY7 _ _ _----:"_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

--------------------------------~----,---------------

WHAT WAS THE INFORMATION USED FOR?

_ _VERIFY CASE DATA _ _ DEVELOP NEW LEADS _ _CLEAR CASES
_IDBffiFY A SUSPECT NA1v1E: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
NA1v1E: __________________________
_ _MAKE AN ARREST
_ _OTHER EXPUUN: __________________

DID THE INFORMATION ESTABUSH TACl1CAL ACTION? YES _ _ NO_

IF YES, WHICH?
_ _HIGH VISIBILITY PATROL _DIREcrED PATROL _STAKEOUT
_ _ UNDERCOVER UNITS _PHANTOM CAR _DECOY
_FIELDINTERROGATION _WALKINGTEAM _BIKETEMI
_TARGET HARDENING HIDDEN CA1v1ERA _CITIZEN ALERT
_ _OTHER (pLEASE EXPLAIN) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

WERE YOU PROVIDED WITH ALL DATA REQUIRED? YES NO

WASTHESERVICESATISFACfORY: YES ~NO
PLEASE GIVE ANY COM:MENTS AND SUGGESTIONS. BE CANDID! EACH WILL BE
REVIEWED AND POSSIBLY IMPLEl\1E.NTED BY 11-IE UNIT. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
CRI1-m ANALYSIS USE ONLY

91
Survey research methods can also provide formal feedback to the unit.
Creating and distributing a questionnaire asking various questions
about crime analysis products and services can assess the frequency
with which users request information or service. the efficiency of the
unit in responding to requests. the value of the information provided
and so on.

While questionnaires provide useful feedback, the actual value of the

questionnaire is directly related to its ability to present questions and
capture responses which accurately assess feelings and/or perceptions
of people completing them. Questionnaires must be appropriately
formatted, and their questions properly asked; failing this, spurious
results may be obtained.

If you are unfamiliar with survey research techniques but wish to use
a questionnaire as part of your feedback process. contact a local
college or university (n1'.lrketing research, psychology. or sociology
departments) for assista·(lce. Survey research ptoje~cts are always
needed by students. and many will do them without charge.

Structured interviews may also be used as part of the formal feedback

process. As with questionnaires, caution must also be exercised when
developing interview questions. To enhance the process. persons
independent of the organization-or at least independent of the crime
analysis unit-should be selected to interview respondents. This
allows interviewees to be candid during interviews and ensures a
higher degree of objectivity in feedback obtained.

Informal Feedback Methods:

Informal feedback methods also assess the effectiveness of the unit

and the products it provides. One simple method is the "trash can
survey." This merely involves looking in trash cans throughout the
department to see how much of your material is thrown away. A
variation on this theme is to note how many products remain in patrol
and investigative briefing areas after officers and detectives have left
for the field or returned to their desks. If much of the material is
being discarded or left behind. it could be an indication that th~
information it contains is of little value to others.

Other informal feedback methods are described belm\': '.

92
e Examine crime analysis unit request logs. If the unit has
received many requests for information and service,
then it probably has made a positive contribution to the
organization.

• Stop publishing and disseminating products and see what

happens. If people notice and ask for them to be
reinstated, accommodate their request. If the stoppage
goes unnoticed, the products were not serving a useful
purpose.

• Consider how often you are asked to provide follow-up

information on people and events described in your
products. Such requests indicate that products are being
read.

• Read arrest reports and determine how many and for

what types of offenses arrests are made as a result of
crime analysis information.

)
• Talk with people individually and collectively under
informal circumstances and solicit their opinions of the
unit and its products. This may be done on ride-alongs.
in the hallway, at briefings, in the gym, etc. Ask people
if they are receiving the information lind service they
desire, have any suggestions for improvements and can
recommend anything else that might be done to better
serve their needs.

Feedback is necessary to ensure that crime analysis units are meeting

user group needs. At the same time, feedback provides analysts and
their supervisors with the information necessary to determine which
products and services are of most-and least-benefit to their
organizations. Armed with this knowledge, managers and analysts can
make whatever operational revisions may be required to improve
efficiency and service capabilities in their units.

EV ALUATION:

Evaluation is a, process which is implemented to assess a program's

performance. ascertain its worth. and justify its continuance or
elimination. A crime analysis program should be evaluated based

93
upon its achievement of goals and objectives set for it by
administrators of the organization.

Evaluations of crime analysis units based on such factors as clearance

rates, crime rates, arrest rates and so on should be avoided for two
reasons. First, the capture of criminals, the cessation of crime patterns
and so on cannot be directly linked to the use of crime analysis
information. Other variables may be responsible for, or contribute to
these outcomes. Second, though the unit provides information, the
unit has little control over the use of this information. Utilization of
the above factors as evaluative criteria may therefore be of little
assistance in determining the overall worth of the unit.

"Perhaps the most meaningful evaluation of crime analysis operations

is one based upon the ability of the uQit to produce worthy and timely
products. This type of evaluation measures the use and acceptance of
crime analysis information by user groups. Another basis for
evaluation is a determination of whether the crime analysis unit is
making proper use of all available resources and is employing the
appropriate analysis techniques to develop information.

Regardless of the evaluation tool used, a crime analysis unit should be

encouraged to maintain a detailed record of all reports, bulletins, or
informal communications provided to each user group. This record
should be kept in the form of a log and should contain a detailed
accounting of all produl'ts-both informal and formal-provided to
various department users. Whenever possible, actions taken as a
result of a product should also be noted." 14

14 Grassie. QP. cit.. pp. 3-18 to 3·19.

94
CHAPTER 6

VOLUNTEERS IN CRIME ANAL YSIS PROGRAMS

"
VOLUNTEERS IN CRIME ANALYSIS PROGRAMS

Civilian volunteers can be of great assistance to crime analysts of any

agency; they are indispensable to anyone using manual methods.

Law enforcement officials, traditionally, have been hesitant to open

their doors to volunteers. Of most concern were access to, or
inappropriate use of, confidential information; ability to interact
favorably with officers and competently perform tasks; and
departmental liability should injury occur on the premises.
Fortunately, none of these has proven to be a major problem over the
years and volunteers are used by many police agencies throughout the
country.

Job Duties:

Volunteers free analysts to perform analysis tasks. To give analysts

this freedom, identify tasks that could be done by others, and assign
these tasks to volunteers. These tasks may include:

• maintaining spot maps

• processing reports

• entering data onto matrices, logs, etc.

• filing reports

• preparing and disseminating routine products

• providing general clerical assistance to unit personnel.

Once volunteer tasks have been identified, they should be written in

the form of job descriptions. A design for this form is shown in Figure
15.

Volunteer Recruit.ment:

As shown in Figure 16, volunteers may be recruited from colleges and

universities, senior citizen centers, churches and synagogues, service
clubs and V!'\I'ious other civic olganizations. Newspapel and radio ads.
volunteer fairs and so on can also be used. (see Figures 17 and 17 A).

96
Figure 15

VOLUf(rEER JOB DESCRIPTION

JoDr_ Io..c-u'iMI "..

Job DIia .,tfofi

r
CdeIrt'I dIflnId purpoa,

RaIpot IlibUitili and raQ

(1PIdftc - will .w _ a ItIr II In waUdon,

Authority -'
(P"" trr; IImitItions to IU1hoIit"j'

OuIlific8tionl

(..,.,1 out! -ucatlon, lX$iWienc., . . limit, tf Ift¥,

willing ., .,ppI,y uniform, CIr, PIIY mlmb,utlip . . . 111:.'

Raqu1rwnlntl of me job

(:N Y8I' ~oi"tll": 10.. • • - t.dihy, ftoar, ttc.: tInII

rsquhd - h(JurI of h diy, dIyI of d'II...t; canndllndlllt\--.
tnininI_:IfIc CIUIIJ ~ If IIIWJ

CGrM. . .

(oct. penirllMt 1n,0I"II'IItI0n IUCh . . . . far ~ ., ...

1I'ftDdaI.-ty ... ., wortc with ..... tdp .... dallped c:iJIncIJ

s.nllian
hiIIW....,
~ wfdI dhctr:wof.",... ........._ .....
jaI) ..,.a...

97
POSSIBLE SOURCES OF VOLUNTEERS

AMERICAN RED CROSS HOMEtI~.KERS

ART ASSOCIATION JUNIOR CHM1BEP. CF C:J!-1:-1EP.CE

BOY/GIRL SCOUTS Kn~MnS
BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS LEAGUE OF WOi·E:: ~/c.,TEPS

CHARITABLE ORGANIZATIONS LOCAL LIBRARY

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE LIONS CLUBS
CHURCHSS t-iEDICAL ??OfESS:C.·jl
CIVIC 0EGA:~ I ZAT lei-iS
COLLEGES/UNIVERSITIES ORGANIZATIONS OF BUSINESS An:
COlJNSELnlG CS;JTERS PROfESSIONAL PEG?LE
FRATERNAL ORGANIZATIONS OTHER PROFESS Iml.Zl.L ORGS.
....... HEALTH AGE~JCIES PARENT /TEACHER r.SSOCIATICt:
e· HIGH SCHOOLS PPIVATS CLUBS
HOSPITAL AUXILIARIES PUBLIC SAFETY A'3Ei:C ISS
SEtHOR CITIZE:lS CLUBS RECPSA:'IOt: CL':3S
SOCIAL SER~ICS AGE~CIES ROTARY CLUBS
SOROPTm'lI STS SALVATION ARi·:!'
TSACHEPS YH/ YVJCA
TRP.DE mEons VOLUNTEER ORG';::: :';-:':·~NS

Figure 16

98
Figure 17

RECRUITING POSSIBILITIES

DISPLAYS/EXHIBITS

Bank lobbies, supermarkets, schools, libraries, depart:-::,=;;-:

s:ore w~;;d=ws, mal:s, city/county complexes, e-:=. Any p:a=~
where large numbers of people are likely to traff::":::.
Consider having an agency person at the display/exhibit si-:e
to hand out brochures, applications and to answer questiens
about your program.
SPEAKERS BUREAU

Develop a l:st of speakers who are interested sr involved in

your program who will give talks about yo~r Fr~grarr. and its
services to various local clubs/organizations.
PRESS RELEASE

Publish ar~icles about existing program a;;d;:::r p!ace ~~:p

want ed ad'le rt i sement s in you r local ne',~'s?a?er, c:)rr.m'-.::-,~ -: j'
magazine, shopper's guide, minority;eth~ic gr~~~ newspaper,
school or other organization newsletter.
MEDIA

loca: commercial or cab!e ~e:evisi=~ s-:a:.:::-.s

_-
w:_.!.. give pui::;:.ic service announceme:-.::,s' l::"';:-;:- -- '-_.......... c._-;:"::'.
- ......
Ccn::act ycur local station on "how-to's".
STREET RECRUITMENT

Set up a "sidewalk" office in front 0: a freque;;::y

trafficked area (i.e. supermarket in a shopping center). A::
you need is a large sign listing your agency's volun:eer
needs, card table and chair, registration cards/r:)rr:1s (::r
futur~ con:actJ and an enthusiastic, know:edg-=a~:e pers:::;;
a~s',.;er ques::io:1s and conduct "on-the-spot." in::e:"Jie ...:s.

MOBILE RECRUITMENT

Decorate a van or other large vehicle

advertising your program. This "roving"
choose locations people frequent.
VOLUNTEER FAIR

This is a great opportunity to bring fami!y, :1eighbors, a;.~

friends together to educate them on the various opportur.:::es
available in your program. Combine with other organi:a~:~ns
who utilize volunteer services.

99
MEET YOUR NEIGHBOR

Spons~r a heme get-together with neighbcrs, frie~ds, a~1/~r

fami!y. Fi~d a common interest/activity ~~ c~~tine wi~~ y~'.:
r e c r u i tin g e f for t s ( i . e . coo k i e b a kin 9 S'2 S s ion, b r 'J !,", C :-. I
etc.) .
OPEN HOUSE

Invite the public to tour your facility. Let them see your
volunteer(s) at work and give them the opportunity to learn
more about your organization.
..
,
WORD OF MOUTH "

This is the MOST effective recruiting tool, yet iC'~~not a

planned action. If your volunteers are !",61r-rY with ys'.:.::
organization and the types of services they provide they wi::
de:initeJ..~l "talk :t up" t'J.i~h the:r f!:'i.e!""~',js a:-:j :'"'.e:gtb~!"s. :
snlid oroaram sPlls itsplf - bp su rp yours ~s w~prh ra'k~~~
abnur,
Figure 17 A

100
--- - -- - - - - - - - - -

Prospective volunteers should be given an introductory letter (see

Figure IS) and an application form (see Figures 19 and 19A). The
application form will determine the skills of each applicant and allow
subsequent assignment to suitable jobs.

Interviewing Candidates:

The successful use of vol unteers requires people to be matched to jobs

which best utilize their talents and skills. This can be facilitated by
interviewing candidates and assessing their qualifications to perform
various tasks. Use of a screening worksheet during the interview will
assist the process (see Figure 20).

• Preparing for the Interview

o Kno'>',' the as:;ignment you are trying to fill. Ob~lerve

persons engaged in simi lar work. Eval uate both the
positive and negative aspects of the tasks observed
and discuss them with prospective volunteers.

o Thoroughly review the application form prior to the

interview. Determine what additional information
you will need to obtain during the interview.

o Plan the direction of the interview. Decide what

information you wish to obtain. Develop questions
to help you determine volunteer:

Moti . . ations

Why are you interested In doing volunteer

work?

Attilllcies
\Vhat ha\'e you enjoyed most/least In
previous volunteer assignments'?

Interpersonal Relations
With what type of co-worker do you work
best (i.e. goal oriented. mechanical, etc. r?

101
·e
POLICE DEPARTMENT FRED AGUIAR
MIYo,
JAl\1ESE.ANTHONY
Pubhc Saftl) Dlrwor AL YANKEY
MIYO, P,o Tom
Chltf 01 Polict
DIANE J. ERWIN
DICK SAWHILL
CITY OF CHINO EUNICE ULLOA
Counc,l .... mb.u

Dear
Thank you for your inquiry about our Vol~ateer Program.
Our citizen assistants are efficient, highly motivated, and
sincerely welcomed by staff members. A variety of assignments
are ,performed within various offices of the Department.
Volunteers may be asked to assist with clerical, research, o~
computer-related tasks. Although special skills are a plus, we
provide on-the-job training and no previous experience is
necessary!
Since assignments are limited, please complete and return the
enclosed application form at your earliest convenience.
If you have any questions, you may contact me at (714) 627-7577.
Sincerely,
JAMES E. ANTHONY
Chief of Police

Jessie C. Pryce
Volunteer Coordinator
Special Services Bureau
Enclosure
riqure 18

102

I32SC Crnlr.1 A.tnur. ~:hlRo. Clhfornll 91710

Mllhn, Addr"l. P.D ~ .. 66", Cllmo. C.hfornll 917Ot.()661
(1'J :'~1,"77
Figure 19
CITY OF CHINO POLICE DEPARTMENT
VOLUNTEER APPLICATION

NAME
T ~ c .....
.-..J ...... _ ..... First ..-..
...."'
SEX
---w- / -=F-
HOME ADDRESS
Si:reet City
HOME PHONE ( MESSAGE
PERSON TO CONTACT
IN EMERGENCY PHONE
CALIFORNIA DRIVER'S LICENSE NO.

KNOWLEDGE OF (Check as many as apply) :

Adoine Machine/Calculator Eardware
-- - r __ ... , .... - .....
_ _ '-'W.llt""'...... _'=_

- -Shorthand (wem
. --- Resea:.-::::',
Filing __ Da t.a E:-.:. ::j' /Ccllec~': ~:-.
__A~:/G~apr.:= ~e'si.g:-.

Po:ice Procedures Other_ _ _ _ _ _ __

DAYS/TIMES AVAILABLE:

(0820-:208)
:·:~ndaJ·
--------
T~esday
-------
Wednesday _ _ _ _ __
Thursday- - - - - - -
:riday- - - - - - - -

HAVE YOU EVER BEEN CONVICTED OF ANY CRIMES OTHER THAN

MINOR TRAFFIC VIOLATIONS? Yes ~Jo ,,:.:: yes I ~:'ease
e:·:?lain

DO YOU HAVE ANY PHYSICAL LIMITATIONS? Yes

-: yes, please e~plain

103
VOLtnrHJ:J. UPLlCA'rIOH
Page 2

BRIErLY STATZ YOOJ\ DCJCGJ\OtJHD KDUIDC& (Use additional

paper if necessary) :

BRIErLY STA'l'J: WIlY YOO ARK IlinUSHD I. DOING VOLtnrfUJt

WORX:

OTHER INTEUS'l'S AND/OR BO•• II:S:

Signature Date

-~-~-----------------------~---~-------------------------
Interviewer'S Comments ________________________________________

ID Badge/Card __Fingerprints __ ~ackqround __Security Code

104
Figure 20
SCREENING WORKSHEET

Applicant's Name: Date:

Rating Range
1-1" Scale
.
,,",

(10 = Superior)

1. Relationship between per&onal

goals and the program.
,

2. Appearance
- ..

3. Attitude - (i. e . , towards self,

the program, and life in general) .
4. Openness - (Is applicant candid
about feelings, doubts?)

5. Objectivity - Ability to be
non-jt.:dg:nent.al)

6. Does applicant have the insight

into what the program involves?

7. Does the applicant demonstrate

unde:: standing, compassion,
empathy .
~ r

.8. Willingness to perform additional

duties beyond stated commitment.
-
9. Leadership potential

-
10. Your overall view of applicant's
acceptability into program.

105
Velllles

\Vhat do you like to do in your leisure

time'? What hobbies do you have?
Emotional Stllhility

How well do you work under stress or the

pressure of rushed deadlines?

Decision Making

What are the most significant decisions you

have made in your life?
Work I-/ahits

How would you describe your work habits?

• Conducting the lntl.!rview

o Provide a private. quiet setting where you can give

the volunteer applicant your undivided attention.

o Introduce yourself. Call the volunt~er by name and

show interest in him/her as an individual.

o Listell. Let the applicant tell his or her story and

use your questions to bring out facts and clarify
feelings. attitudes or concerns. Verify you r
understanding of what is really being said. Use
non-directive questions to help you evaluate
motivations. attitudes. etc. Be supportil·e.
Interrupt only to keep the interview focused.

• Timing the Interview

o An interview need only be long enough to elicit the
information desired from the volunteer applicant
and to answer his or her questions.
o Keep the objective of the interviev/ in mind. Cse
your questions to keep the interview within propt'r
bounds. Be thorough, but keep the discussion
focused on the job.

106
o Confine the interview to pertinent information.
Concenirate on appraising the applicant's qualifica-
tions to work in the crime analysis unit. Attempt
to match interest areas, talents and abilities to
possihle job assignments.

• Evaluating the Volunteer

o Consider each fact in relation to all others. Avoid

basing evaluatio:1s on first impressions, biases, etc.
Be non-judgmental.

o Consider the applicant's skills. knowledge. talents.

abilities, interests, motivations, etc.

o ;-';otc the appl icant's body language. mannerisms.

mental reaction time and organization of thoughts
whl!1l answering 4ucstions.

o :--:otc applicant's evaluation of himself. what he

thinks he can and cannot do and how well he feels
he performs tasks.

o Note the quality of self-prepared application forms.

hanc.hvriting. ability to follow directions. clerical
ability. etc.

• Closing the Interview

o Thank the volunteer for his/her interest.

o If not suited for your agency. redirect him to

another agency or program.

o If accepted, schedule orientation and training times.

o If applicant rejects the assignment. be sure to not~

reasons. This will assist you in future interviews
with other prospective volunteers.

Background Investigations:

Although each agency has its own policies regarding background

investigations for volunteer workers. most will at least want to check
state criminal history files for arrest records. If you are making

107
inquiries by mail. include applicant fingerprint cards. Driving records
may be checked through Department of :V10tor Vehicle files. •
Background investigations should not be done without the knowledge
and consent of applicants. A written form for this purpose is shown in
Figure 21.

Ori en ta ti on Training:

Orientation training for volunteers should parallel that given any new
employee. Volunteers should be introduced to members of the
departmen t, acquainted with organizational rules and regulations and
f~lmi liarized with the operation of the crime analysis unit. Volunteers
should also be given special identification cards to wear while on duty.

During orientation. volunteers should be informed of the tasks they

are expected to accomplish and should also be familiarized with
equipment they will use, told where supplies are kept and so on. Job
descriptions should be reviewed and training schedules established.

Work· hours should be discussed with volunteers during orientation.

Most agencies allow volunteers to set their own work hours and this
practice is not deleterious as long as volunteers adhere to the work
schedules they have agreed upon. Allowing volunteers to come and go
as they please is not advisable. It is difficult to plan work under such
conditions and tasks planned for completion can be left unfinished or
undone.

Supervision:

Volunteers assigned to crime analysis units are most often supervised

by crime analysts. These people then become responsible for the
work and actions of volunteer assistants.

Volunteers should be supervised in much the same manner as salarit!d

personnel. Their work should be planned and evaluated and they
should be given performance feedback.

Recognition:

Volunteers should be recognized for contributions to the agency tht!)'

serve. They can be recognized formally at staff meetings. annual
employee banquets or special luncheons or dinners held in their
..

108
honor. At the very least. they should be presented with certificates of
appreciation, certificates of merit or similar written accolades.
Volunteers may also be routinely recognized by supervisory comment.
by notes congratulating them for johs well done, by the sending of
greeting cards on employment annj\'er~ary dates and so on. Feelings
of appreciation will also be generated by using any products or ideas
developed by volunteer assistants.

Other suggestions for volunteer recognition are shown in Figure 22.

109
e POLf( L DEP:\RT:-"IE:-':T
JA:-"IES E. _~ '\ THO:-':Y
}I," • "" I . i l •.• ' , '.' ·110 r"f'
. ,,' ',' ..
I) I \" I I ! f{ \\ I"
IJlr;.. '\\\HI! L
II "Ie I L1l()-\
·,t.' ... ,.

NAME
-------------------
.-~~--.
DATE
ADDRESS

POSITION APPLIED FOR:

I understand that this Background Investigation is done for

Volunteer employment purposes only. It is to assess
qualifications for this specific employment and is not to be
construed as intended for any other purpose.

I understand that I will be given no feedback or results other

than being notified of "passing" or "not passing". Also, I
acknowledge that these records are confidential, and will remain
the property of the Chino Police Department. They will not be
made available to any other Police Agency or employer, for
background purposes, without an Authorization to Release
Information signed by me.

If I am not accepted for Volunteer service, I understand that

this means only that I do not meet the standards established for
the position for which I have applied.

Signed,_____________________________

Date_________________

Witness

Date
------------------
Figure 21

11 0
honor. At the very least, they should be presented with certificates of
appreciation, certificates of merit or similar written accolades.
Volunteers may also be routinely recognized by supervisory comment,
by notes congratulating them for jobs well done, by the sending of
greeting cards on employment anniversary dates and so on. Feelings
of appreciation will also be generated by using any products or ideas
developed by volunteer assistants.

Other suggestions for volunteer recognition are shown In Figure 22.

III
VOLUNTEER RECOGNITION

RECOGNITION - Acknowledgement and Appreciation of Achievement.

Following are just a few ideas for recognition possibilities:

• Smile • Facilitate Personal Growth

a Say "Good Morning" • Keep Challenging Them
• Greet by Name • Provide Substantial Training
• Be Pleasant • Introduce to Other Staff
Members
• Be Patient
• Plan Staff/Volunteer Meetings
• Respect Sensitivities
• Hold Rap Sessions
• Recognize and Accommodate
Personal Needs & Problems • Celebrate Outstanding Projects
and Achievements
~! •
• Take Time to Talk
• Plan Staff/Volunteer Social
• Say "Thank You" Events
• Send Cards for Special • Invite to Volunteer Conferences
Occasions/Holidays or Workshops
• Maintain Coffee Bar • Plan Annual Ceremonial Events
• Provide Pleasant Working • Afford Participation in Team
Conditions Planning
• Accept Individuality • Offer Advocacy Roles
• Take Time to Explain • Utilize as Consultant
Tasks
• Enlist to Train Other Volunteers
• Provide Opportunities for
Job Growth • Award Special Citations for
Achievement and Longevity
• Give Additional
Responsibility • Publish Volunteer Newsletter
• Fully Orientate to • Send Newsworthy Information
Policies and Procedures to Media

Figure 22

112
CHAPTER 7

DEVELOPMENT OF A MANAGEMENT OF PATROL

OPERATIONS PROGRAM
DEVELOPMENT OF A MANAGEMENT OF PATROL OPERATIONS
(MPO) PROGRAM

Prior to the 1900s, policemen patrolled beats on foot or horseback and

police departm,ents had to employ a large number of officers. This
was particularly true for agencies serving large populations. Later use
of the police car allowed fewer officers to patrol larger areas;
response times were greatly improved.

Victims and witnesses could still only contact the police by waItIng for
the officer to come by or by calling the station and requesting that he
be sent to their location. This was not always satisfactory and the
introduction of radios in police cars of the Detroit Police Department
during the 1920s significantly enhanced the ability of officers to
respond to calls for serVIce. The Wickersham Commission of 1931
concluded that "the radio in police work is assur~d a brilliant
future. "15.

The radio-equipped police car remained the answer to police response

problems through the first half of the twentieth century. Police
administrators felt that criminals could be arrested and crime
problems solved if only they had enough officers, cars and radios
available. Much money was expended in pursuit of this objective. By
the 1960s, however, this philosophy began to be questioned. With all
the money spent on officer and equipment acquisition, crime still
remained at unacceptable levels in many jurisdictions.

The Kansas City Response Time Analysis (1977) found that many
serious crimes were not discovered until some time after they
occurred and their solutions were unaffected by rapid police response.
For remaining crimes-those in progress or just completed-the time
taken by a citizen to report a crime, not the speed of the police
response, was the major factor in determining whether or not an on-
scene arrest would be made. Prompt reporting time-under 5
minutes-coupled with a speedy police response can have a significant
impact on certain types of crime. But the study found that many

15 David G. Monroe and Earl'e W. Garrett, under the direction of August Vollmer.
police Condilions in Ihe United Slates. A Report to the National Commission on
Law Observance and En rorcemcnt. Patterson Smith Reprint series. 1968 as cited
by William Spellman and Dale K. Brown in Calljng the police; Citizen Reporting
or Serious Crime, (National Institute of Justice. October 1984). p. 17.

1 14
citizens delay before calling police and, with each additional minute,
the chance of on-scene arrest drops. 16 Similar conclusions were
reached elsewhere. The Police Executive Research Forum replicated
the Kansas City study in Jacksonville, Florida; San Diego, California;
Peoria, Illinois; and Rochester, New York. In their three year study of
the problem, they found that:

• 86 percent of all calls were placed more than 5 minutes

after the incident occurred-the time period critical for
making an on-scene arrest

• on-scene arrests attributed to fast police response were

made in only 2.9 percent of reported serious crimes

• fast response may be unnecessary in three out of four

reported serious crimes. 17

These findings were a jolt to police administrators throughout the

nation. Over the years they had spent billions of dollars acquiring
personnel and materiel necessary for quick response. Now they were
being told that rapid response was seldom sufficient to effect the
apprehension of criminal offenders.

Armed with this new information, police administrators began to

question the wisdom of hiring increasing numbers of officers. This
was an expensive practice to maintain and, in the high inflation of the
1970s, budgets were shrinking at an alarming rate. It became clear
that the number of officers an agency had (so long as it had an
adequate officer to population ratio) would not, by itself, create
reductions in crime. Instead of recommending hiring of additional
personnel to accomplish crime reduction, researchers encouraged
administrators to employ t~~chniques that made more efficient use of
existing departmental resources.

The .recommended techniques were revolutionary; they challenged

widely held beliefs that:

16 Marc H. Caplan. Efficient LLs.!~ of Police Resources, (National Institute of

Justice, November 1983). pp. 2-3.
17 Ibid.

1 15
• police calls should be answered on a "first come, first
served" basis

• with few exceptions, only sworn police officers could be

sent to calls

• police officers should be sent to the location of the caller.

Adherence to these beliefs was counterproductive to the police

operation, Research demonstrated that police agencies could
satisfactorily handle increased workloads without increasing their
resources by:

• implementing call screening/call prioritization dispatch

procedures

• utilizing non-sworn personnel to handle non-emergency,

non-hazardous calls

• utilizing callback, telephone reporting, mail-in reporting

and walk-in reporting techniques. IS

Management of Patrol Operations Programs ensure that patrol

resources (both personnel and materiel) are efficiently used to
maximum effectiveness. This is best accomplished by designing
procedures and establishing practices that:

• increase availability of field officers

• utilize alternative police response strategies to satisfy

citizens' needs without sacrifice to the efficiency of the
sworn patrol force

• properly deploy officers to enhance crime reduction and

criminal apprehension efforts.

18 Since the 1970s. a number of patrol management stucUes have been conducted
throughout the nation. Those reviewed for this text include the W iI min g Ion.
Delaware Management of Demand Program (sponsored by the National Institute
of Justice); Differential Police Respon{je Field Test (designed by the National
Institute of Justice and conducted by 'th~ Garden Grove. California; Toledo. Ohio
an rl Greensboro. Nonh Carolina Police :Depanments); and the Managing Patrol
Operations Program Test Design (sponsored by the National Institute of Justice
and conducted. by the Albuquerque. New Muico; Charlone. Nonh Carolina: and
Sacramento. California. Police Departments).

1 16
ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO POLICE RESPONSE

Implementation of Call ScreeningLCal1 Prioritization Dispatch Proce-

dures:

Adoption of a call screening/call prioritization procedure allows the

dispatcher to determine the nature of the call and the necessity of
sending an officer. The Police Referral in Metropolitan Areas stu d y
conducted by the National Institute of Justice found that nearly 50
percent of all caI1s were handled by dispatchers without any further
police involvement.

Calls which do require a police response are usually divided into two
categories: critical and noncritical. Critical calls (those of an
emergelicy nalure) are answered first. Noncritical calls are put in a
queue (referred to as "call stacking") and handled as time becomes
available.

Use of call screening/call prioritization does away with the "first come,
first served" police response and is extremely useful for maximizing
patrol force efficiency. To work properly, however, the dispatcher
must be trained to classify calls and to deploy agency personnel in
accordance with departmental response guidelines. The caller must be
advised if the call is to be held; citizens do not object to waiting for a
response if they are told in advance that the response will be delayed
and given a general idea of for how long.

Utilization of Non-Sworn Personnel:

Police perform many tasks that do not require a sworn police officer.
Many departments have non-sworn personnel handle such requests;
this allows officers to patrol their beats and quickly respond to
emergencies. Trained civilians can take some types of reports.
perform vacation house checks, home security inspections and simi lar
crime prevention duties, handle parking and minor trafflc problems.
and provide a wide range of other services.

In a survey conducted by the Birmingham. Alabama. Police

Department, people who had made noncritical calls and received a
sworn officer response indicated that they would have been just as

] 17
satisfied with an alternative response that allowed better use of the
officer's time. 19

ll.tilizatiQn of Other Alternative Response TechniQues;

It may not always be possible to send personnel to a caller and some
agencies have developed alternatives to sati~fy the caller without
impeding efficiency of the force.

One alternative is the "callback". Dispatchers tell callers that someone

will call back and provide the information requested. This technique
works well as long as someone does, in fact, call back.

Three other techniques can be used for taking minor police reports.
One instructs the caller to give the report over the telephone, a second
sends a report form to the caller and le~s him or her fill it out and mail
it in. Both techniques work well as' long as report forms are well
designed, easily understood, and used only for minor incidents (e.g.,
petty theft where the stolen item cannot be identified, there is no
suspect, or any information or evidence that might lead to the
recovery of the item or discovery of the thief). A third technique
requires the caller to come to the station to make the report.

Some agencies are able to send sworn officers to all calls, others are
not. Those with limited resources may wish to adopt one or more
alternative response strategies to increase patrol efficiency.

MANAGEMENT OF THE PATROL FORCE:

The patrol force is the largest and most costly resource of the police
organization. But because of its size, it can be difficult to manage. We
indicated earlier that random patrol produced random results and
recommended that patrol supervisors "direct" the activities of their
officers so as to make the most efficient use of them. Left to their own
devices, patrol officers will generally approach the job in one of four
ways. They will:
• be dependent upon the radio and react to situations
rather than assuming a ¥Jr.'.pactive role in discovering and
handling problems

19 f\,.:-4
~ .• p. S
.

1 18
~~- - -----~--

• pursue activities that are personally appealing regardless

of the needs of the individual beat

• pursue patrol activities based on unconfirmed opinions

about area needs and departmental objectives

• take it upon themselves to obtain current and accurate

information on their districts and then use it to guide
them in the performance of their duties. 20

These approaches leave policing the jurisdiction to the discretion of

individual officers with the result that there is little, if any, effort
directed toward the achievement of departmentally-identified
objecdves.

Needs Identification:

The first step in developing a Managemen t of Patrol Operations

Program is to identify the needs of the jurisdiction and the
responsibility of the department to meet those needs. Often these
encompass the following:

• protection of life and property

• protection of civil liberties

8 provision of assistance to those who cannot care for

themsel yes

• maintaining traffic flow

• provision of crime prevention services

• identification of community problems that may lead to

criminal activity.

While these are all responsibilities of the department, they need not
be the responsibility of the patrol force.

In order to maximize efficiency, the department must first establish

which units will be given responsibility for each of the above. Priority
for response must then be determined for responsibilities assigned to

20 G. Hoban Reinier, et. al.. .crime Analysis Operations Manual (U.S. Department
of Justice, Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, June 1977). p. 2-3.

1 19
the patrol function. Calls involving immediate threat to life, felony
crimes in progress, and the like should be answered first; other calls
should be stacked or handled in accord with alternative response
procedures.

Creation of a Manpower Distribution Study:

Creation of a manpower distribution study is the next step in the

development of an MPO Program. The study determines how many
officers the department needs in order to provide adequate service to
the community. Throughout the country, the standard for large CItIes
has been 1.5 to 2.0 officers per 1,000 population; local needs often
alter this figure.

The study begins by examination of patrol actIVIty logs, radio logs,

dispatch run cards and/or info'rmation generated by computer aided
dispatch (CAD) systems. Data obtained will indicate how much time is
spent by officers in three general categories:

• responding to calls for service

• attending to administrative details

• preventive patrol activities.

An agency with only enough officers to keep up with calls and

administrative tasks is understaffed. It must have the additional peo-
ple necessary to give officers time (also known as uncommitted time)
for proactive crime preventive activities. In general, uncommitted
patrol time should range between 25 and 35 percent of the total time
of the patrol force. The remaining 65 to 75 percent can be
apportioned between responding to caIls for service and performing
administrative duties such as servicing the patrol unit, testifying in
court, eating, transporting prisoners and so forth.

In determining how much time should be allocated to responding to

calls for service, it is necessary to consider the time needed to respond
to the initial call, plus any additional time required for follow-up
investigation, report preparation, prisoner processing and related
duties. Once the total required patrol time has been determined. it is
necessary to convert this to patrol positions on the basis of the
average number of days or hours a patrol officer can be expected to
work in a given year. This is calculated by reviewing a sample of
personnel time sheets for a one-year period. These sheets will

120
provide information regarding how many days each officer works
along with the number of days lost due to vacations, holidays, illness
or other absences. Once this has been determined, it can be divided
into the total number of patrol hours required to provide the
necessary staffing level. 21

Once manpower needs have been determined, it then becomes

necessary to equitably distribute officers among shifts. To provide a
simple example of how this is accomplished, assume that a department
has 100 officers and deploys them in three shifts. After examination
of the data, it is found that 23 percent of all incidents occur on day
watch, 46 percent occur on swing shift and 31 percent occur on
graveyard. To determine the best distribution of officers for each of
the three shifts, the total number of officers (l00) should be
multiplied by the percentage of incidents listed for each shift. Thus,
day shift should have 23 officers (100 X .23 = 23), swing shift shoulJ
have 46 officers (100 X .46 =46), and graveyard should have 31
officers (100 X .31 = 31). In actuality, seldom win the numbers come
out this evenly; but the method used to determine them will be the
same. Moreover, they may be altered depending upon the nature of
criminal activity in the jurisdiction. Two officers might be able to
handle a typical disturbance call in some cities. In others, three or
more officers may often be required.

Although the above method will help determine the number of

officers needed by the department to adequately cover all shifts
throughout the year, it must be remembered that the number of
officers which need to be assigned on any particular day may vary.
On Wednesday and Friday nights, for example, swing shift may
account for 57 percent of all the day's incidents. In this case, were it
to have but 46 officers assigned to it, the shift would be understaffed.
A manpower distribution study must be expanded to det.ermine the
quantity of officers needed by the department annually, and on each
shift during specific days of the week. Agencies will be unable to have
the desired numbers of officers assigned to all shifts at all times. The
goal, however, should be to approximate these numbers to the greatest
possible degree.

21 Local Government Police Management, ed. by Bernard L. Gannire. p.l :!8.

12 1
Creation of a Workload Analysis Study;

Once manpower needs have been determined, the next step is to

evenly distribute officer workload by conducting a workload analysis
study. This involves examining activities occurring in each beat (the
geographical area patrolled by an officer), and then, if necessary,
redrawing beats to evenly distribute the workload.

Our manpower distribution study indicated that since day shift had 23
percent of all incidents, it should have 23 officers assigned to it. What
if 15 of those officers are bt!sy all of the time and 8 are not? This
indicates that beats are incorrectly drawn, and some officers are
overworked while others are underworked. The solution to the
problem is to redesign the beats by determining the percentage of
total workload generated by each beat.~ Assume that in a simple four
beat system, day shift beat 1 has 42 percent of the workload, beat 2,
18 percent, beat 3, 31 percent, and beat 4, 9 percent. Officers working
beats 1 and 3 are much busier than those working beats 2 and 4.
Redraw the beats so that the workload is evenly distributed. In this
example, beats 1 and 3 would probably be reduced and beats 2 and 4
would be increased.

Full explanations of how to conduct a manpower distribution or

workload analysis study are available elsewhere and you are
encouraged to refer to these references to assist you in in your work.2 2

Once the required number of officers has been determined, and

workloads evenly distributed, the patrol supervisor can direct patrol
toward the accomplishment of goals targeted by executives of the
organization. Frequently, these goals relate to the suppression of
specific criminal activities occurring throughout the jurisdiction.

22 Patrol Dcploymf(Dt, by Margaret J. Levine and J. Thomas McEwen, September

1985; A Prf(liminaey Guideline Man.ua1 for PalCol Operations Analysis. by
Richard G. Grassie and John Hollister, June 30, 1977; Reyiew of Patrol Operations
Analysis; Self(cted Readin&s from rCAP Cities. by the Wcstinihouse National
Issues Center. June 13. 1978; Manuin& Patrol Operations • Participant's
Handbook. by Donald F. Cawley et aI .• 1977. All published by the U.S. Depanment
of Justice. National Institute of Justice; Washington. D.C. 20531,

122
Random patrol is unplanned patrol, but "directed patrol" is planned
and directs resources to have the greatest influence on identified
crime problems. The crime analyst can be of great assistance to patrol
supervisors in the identification pro~ess.

Implementation of a directed patrol problem begins with the analyst's

collection and analysis of pertinent data. Information regarding
existing or emerging crime problems is given to operations supervisors
for their use in formulating "Directed Patrol Plans." These plans direct
the use of uncommitted time to patrolling those specific areas having
the greatest potential for criminal activity.

A "Directed Patrol Plan" should include the following:

• nature of the problem (burglary, robbery, gang, etc.)

• type of potential target (person, business, house, vehicle,

etc.)

• time, location and days of week of occurrence

• suspect information (if any)

• patrol strategies available for problem resolution

• resources required for implementation of each strategy

• selection of the strategy to be employed

Once the plan has been implemented, it should be evaluated for

effe.ctiveness and the results made known to the crime analysis unit.

Role of the Crime Analyst in the MPO Process:

The crime analyst will provide the information necessary to create a

system of policing that will foster the accomplishment of the following
objectives:

.. implementation of directed patrol efforts

• use of specialized tactical applications to abate specified

crime problems'#

• u~e. of a more s.ciedntifl· cally-basefd rationale for deter-

mInIng the strategIC ep loyment 0 personne 1
e
123
• an increased ability to achieve predetermined opera-
tional objectives.

These objectives are met by the analyst's examination and analysis of:

• crime rates by geographic area

• current deployment staffing patterns

• workload distribution patterns

• calls for service statistics

• current call prioritization/call management procedures

• alternative police response techniques.

Review of the above information will be of assistance to patrol

operations managers and organizational executives. At the operations
level, the data will guide more efficient utilization of organizational
manpower. At the executive level, it will assist in accurately
determining current and future resource needs. This facilitates the
budgetary process and helps ensure that the department has the
personnel and equipment necessary to adequately police the
jurisdiction.

Qfficer Trainini:

Initial acceptance of a Management of Patrol Operations Program is

likely to meet with resistance unless officers are properly trained and
totally familiarized with it. People are resistant to change-and this
program may change many aspects of the patrol operation. Beats may
change. Hours of work and days off may change. Officers may have to
become more accountable for their activities and the amount of time
they spend on them. Civilians may be used to perform tasks
previously done by sworn personnel. Officers accustomed to their
freedom in the field may not appreciate a program which structures
their activities.

Executive commitment to the program will help to overcome some

resistance, but for MPO to be truly successful. training must be
provided to patrol supervisors and officers Officers must realize that
the MPO program is being implemented to maximize their crime
suppression and apprehension efforts. Any transitional problems

124
which may occur should be viewed by officers as short-term
inconveniences necessary to the developmental process.

Sellin ~ the Pro~ram;

Agencies which implement an MPO Program will be dependent upon

the crime analyst to assist with the development of manpower
distribution and workload analysis studies. He or she will also be
required to provide information critical to creation of directed patrol
plans. Beyond that, however, analysts will also have to help sell the
program to the troops.

The Chino, California, Police Department developed its MPO Program in

1983. Though light-hearted in style, the memorandum which begins
on the following page is serious in content. It was distributed to patrol
supervisors to acquaint them with MPO goals and objectives and to
remove any misconceptions they may have had about the Program.
Should you so desire, you may use it to familiarize your staff with
MPO concepts and promote the "sale" of the Program.

125
MEMORANDUM
CITY OF CHINO
POLICE DEPARTMENT

TO: All Patrol Supervisors

SUBJECT: Management of Patrol Operations-What It Is and
How It Came to Be

Simpiy stated. the Management of Patrol Operations means managing

patrol resources (primarily personnel) so that they are efficiently used
to their maximum level of effectiveness. This is accomplished in two
ways:

A. By establishment of Departmental 'policies which aid In the

conservation of patrol resources. Such policies may include:

1. establishment of a call prioritization system

2. establishment of a civilian component to handle calls which

do not require the expertise of a police officer

3. a mail-in or telephone method of reporting

4. a careful review of all jobs performed by officers and the

elimination of those which can be done by others in the De-
partment at less cost

5. establishment of a philosophy which strives to maximize the

uncommitted time of officers such that they can primarily
devote themselves to the identification of crime and the ap-
prehension of criminals.

B. By the control exercised by the patrol supervisor over subordi-

nates.

To be sure, the policies enacted by the executives of a police

administration will determine the latitude given a supervisor to
control his or her people. However, no matter what these
policies may be, there are some things a supervi.;or can do which
will usually, if not always, be in harmony with organizational
objectives. These are summarized as follows:

126
------------------ ---- ----------

1. If you still believe that more manpower is the answer to your

problems, try to divest yourself of that notion. Hanging on to
that concept will only prove counterproductive, and you will
constantly be frustrated by the lack of bodies assigned to
your shift.

It is acknowledged that we always need a mlnlmum number

of personnel on each shift; the Department is aware of this
and, as budgets allow, the City will try to hire additional
people. But until you see new faces in briefing, try to
mentally adopt the attitude that "what you see is what you
get." Now, having adopted that attitude, what ca n you do
with what you've got? Your answer might be, "I don't know
what I can do because I don't know what I've got." And to a
point, you are right!

It has come to our attention that our monthly publishing of

Part I crimes is of little value to patrol supervisors. How
many burglaries occurred citiwide is not as helpful as
knowing on what shift they occurred and in which beat. In
recogmtIon thereof, we are completely changing our
reporting procedures and have instructed the crime analysis
" unit (CAU) to publish new documents that have been
specifically designed to give you the information you need to
answer the question, "What have I got."

2. Recognize that once you have answered this question, you

must now address yourself to the question of "What do I do?"
The search for the answer can be a very challenging and
exciting experience.

Lieutenants and sergeants in patrol have a responsibility to

ensure that the citizens of this community are getting
maximum effectiveness out of each officer we employ, And,
since we only have a limited number of resources available
to us, they must not be squandered. Just as you would not
waste your family's assets, neither can you expend your
shift's assets without due regard for your return on
:n ves tmen t.

3. Realize that as patrol supervisors you have been thrust into

the role of change agents. You hold your positions because of
the faith and trust the Department has in you to keep watch
over our most valuable resource-our people. You have the

127
power to lead them, guide them, and to help them grow
personally and professionally. And, you most certainly have
the responsibility, authority and the obligation to ensure that
they are maXimIZIng their potential and meeting the
Department's crime suppression goals.

4. Come to the conclusion that if your officers are to meet the

Department's crime suppression goals, then some of your
supervisory styles may have to change. This should not
taken negatively, but accepted positively.

As a supervisor, you have officers available to you for eight

hours of work each day. If this Department never exceeded
shift minimums, this translates to at least 20,000 man-hours
per year-20,000 man-hours that you, as supervisors, can
control and put to use as you see fit.

5. Granted, there are some limitations placed on you which

prevent you from controlling all of the time of your officers.
But know that you can control some of it, perhaps a large
majority of it.

6. Accept the fact that with a reduction in resources-and the

mandate that both effectiveness and efficiency be
maximized-will come your responsibility to manage the
uncommitted time of your officers.

In the months and weeks ahead, the CAU will be giving you
information relative to what the crime problems are, where
they are occurring and so on. The CAU never has and never
will require that any action be taken. Its personnel may
make recommendations in an effort to assist you with your
strategic and tactical action planning efforts, but it will never
impose itself on you. Thus, what you do with the information
given you by the CAU will be up to you. However, recognize
that inaction, in reality, is itself an action.

7. Reflect upon this as a new supervisory beginning. Soon you

will have more crime information available to you and, as we
continue to computerize our operath'm, you will have even
more. Consider too that collectively you also have thousands
of man-hours available to you-hours that you can I'se to
attack specific crime problems.

128
The objective of the Manag(~ment of Patrol Operations program is not
to have officers driving aimlessly about their beats, but to have them
concentrating on criminal activities in accord with the plans of action
you set for them. Further, the Department is considering several
alternatives to our current methods of policing. Primarily, we are
attempting to identify those areas where the uncommitted time of
each officer can be increased so that you will not only be facilitated in
you r efforts to develop Directed Patrol Plans, but will be able to
develop them confident in the knowledge that you will have the
creative ability to bring those plans to successful conclusions.

We conclude by once again repeating the question, "What can I do

with what I've got?" The CAU will help you to answer the latter part
of the question. Each supervisor must answer the first part of the
question for himself. Obviously, you will be expected to do something
with the information given yOll, but this should be no c.ause for
concern. Each of you is already held accountable for what happens on
your respective shifts.

No, this is a time for excitement and a time to be very creative. Let
your imaginations go and think of new solutions to old problems. Can
you take two people out of their beats and let them stake out an area?
.. ,
How about four hours in uniform and four hours in plain clothes? For
burglary problems, could all of the units be concentrated in two or
three areas and only broken away for emergency calls? Maybe yes, or
maybe no. These mayor may not be viable alternatives. The point is
that you have the opportunity to be creative with the time of your
people. They may resent the structuring of their time at first, but the
positive results that will come out of this program should quickly
counteract any negative feelings which initially appear.

I encourage you to review this information with your officers and to

solicit their input. Consider the formulation of formalized Directed
Patrol Plans and, as mentioned above, begin thinking creatively of
some new ways to attack old problems. You have our help, your have
your officers and you have their time. What can you do with what
you've got? You can make a difference. The choice of determining
what difference you want to make-and how you want to make it-we
now leave up to you.

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CHAPTER 8

DEVELOPMENT OF A MANAGEMENT OF CRIMINAL

INVESTIGATIONS PROGRAM
DEVELOPMENT OF A MANAGEMENT OF CRIMINAL
INVESTIGATIONS (MCI) 'PROGRAM

The purpose of developing a Management of Criminal Investigations

(Mel) Program is to maximize the efficiency of the investigations
component of the law enforcement agency. This is best accomplished
through establishment of procedures that increase apprehension
efforts and provide investigators with the time necessary to focus
attention on those cases which have a high probability of solution.

It is impossible to eliminate all criminals from a jurisdiction. Lack of

comprehensive information regarding all criminal events, coupled with
limitations on police resources, make this an unattainable goal. A
more realistic approach is to concentrate on individuals deemed to be,
and often referred to as, career criminals, repeat offenders or habitual
offenders. These individuals commit the majority of the crimes; their
identification and apprehension should be the primary focus of law
enforcement effort.

Accomplishment of this objective is made possible by developing each

of the five following elements, which when integrated, provide the
foundation for an Mel Program:

• expansion of the role of patrol in the preliminary (or

initial) investigation process

• implementation of case screening procedures

• implementation of continuing investigations management

procedures

• enhancement of police/prosecutor relationships

• monitoring of the investigations system.

Expansion of the Role of Patrol in the Preliminary Investigation

Process:

Patrol officers historically played a small parl in the prelimi nary

investigation process. They were often viewed as report takers. Much
of the initial investigative work they could have performed was
deferred to detectives. This procedure failed to recognize that the
patrol officer was in the best position to gather information and
evidence which could later become lost or destroyed. Since patrol

131
officers were not allowed to investigate criminal incidents to any
appreciable degree, agencies had to employ many detectives for this
purpose, clearly an inefficient use of personnel.
e
Preliminary investigation is the most important part of the
investigative process. It determines:

• whether a crime has actually occurred

• the type of crime

• the location, date and time of the crime

• the identity of the victim

• solvability factors (reasons to believe that a suspect can

or cannot be identified and apprehended)

• what follow-up action needs to be taken.

Another objective in completing a thorough preliminary investigation

is to eliminate the need for detectives to later duplicate the officers'
efforts. Acting on information provided initially, detectives should be
able to proceed with an inquiry without having to repeat earlier data
collection procedures.

Some departments allow patrol personnel to pursue an' investigation

until all leads have been exhausted. In these agencies, an officer may
spend one or more entire shifts on one case. He or she may contact
additional victims or witnesses, attempt to find a suspect, search for
more evidence, etc. This officer will continue with the case until such
time as a suspect is apprehended or the case comes to a dead end.
This practice is common in small agencies which have few, if any,
investigators.

Most agencies have patrol personnel collect basic information and then
return them to general patrol duties. Few departments can afford to
have patrol officers tied up on one or two cases for an entire shift. If
patrol officers become overly involved in investigations. an agency can
easily lose its ability to quickly respond to emergency situations and
routine calls for service. If' a department does not have the resources
to provide an illtensive effort. preliminary investigations should
usually be limited to the capture of data which can be obtained by

132
patrol officers at the crime scene. Once this information has been
obtained, it can be turned over to detectives for further investigation.

Implementation of Case Screening Procedures:

In this process, cases which can be solved are separated from those
having little chance of solution. Investigative managers assign only
solvable cases to detectives; others are administratively deactivated or
closed unless the discovery of new information warrants reactivation
and review.

Use of a case screening process provides an objective basis for

determining whether or not a case should be assigned for follow-up
action. Often this decision will be based upon the number and nature
of "solvability factors" identified during the preliminary h1Vestigation.

Solvability factors are those data or circumstances that indicate the

potential for case solution. Where many-or particularly significant-
solvability factors exist, the probability of solving a case is high.
Where none or very few exist, the probability is low.

The existence of solvability factors is determined by patrol officers

during the preliminary investigation process. On the basis of
information and e-"idence obtained, they wi 11 answer the following or
similar questions:
• Was there a witness to the crime?

• Was a suspect arrested?

• Is a suspect named?
• Can a suspect be located?
• Can a suspect be described?
• Can a suspect be identified?
• Can a suspect vehicle be identified?
• I~ the stolen property identifiable?
• Is there a significant MO?
• Is significant physical evidence present'?

133
• Is there a good possibility of solution?

.. Is further investigation needed?

These questions are usually included in the body of the officers'

reports and are subsequently reviewed by investigative managers.
Responses to the questions will help managers determine if
assignment of the case to an investigator is justified.

Consideration of solvability factors weighs heavily in case assignment

determinations, but other factors also play a part. These include the
quality of preliminary information presented by the investigating
officer, the officer's belief that follow-up action is necessary, or the
nature of the case itself. Homicides are always given the benefit of a
comprehensive investigation rega.rdless of how many solvability
factors are initially identified. Many sex crimes, shootings, and other
major crime incidents receive similar treatment.

Implementing case screening procedures focuses the efforts of

investigators on those cases having high potential for solution. This
makes for a more efficient use of manpower.

Implementation of Continning Investigations Management Procedures:

The purpose of implementing these procedures is to increase the

efficiency of the investigative process, not to create a productivity
measurement tool to "keep track of people and tell them what to do."
Any attempt to use the program to these ends should be strongly
discouraged.

Some investigators resist attempts to manage the investigative

process; they, tOOt have become accustomed to freedom and may
resent intrusion into their activities. Further, with the implementation
of investigative management procedures, in"e,'.itigators will be held
increasingly accountable for their time and for the progress of their
investigations. This may also cauee resentment.

Resistance can be overcome if investigators are informed that

investigative management procedures are being developed to enable
them to more efficiently investigate their cases and to bring them to
successf..d conclusions. They may be skeptical of this assertion
initially, but as their ability to solve cases and apprehend criminals
increases, their resistance will diminish.

134
Enhancement of PolicelProsecutor Relationships;

The goal of developing a well-coordinated crime analysis, MPO and

Mel Program is to identify and apprehend career criminals a nd to
successfully prosecute them. A strong link between the law
enforcement agency and the prosecutor's office is required for this
goal to be achieved.

The primary benefit derived from developing this link is improvement

in communications. Feedback from the prosecutor's office keeps
investigative managers apprised of inconsistencies between changing
prosecutorial policies and police investigative priorities and provides
police administrators with timely information relative to completeness
and quality of their agency's investiga~ions.

The formal relationship between police and prosecutor should

recognize the value of working together for the accomplishment of
mutually df.!sired objectives. Prosecutors should be willing to train
investigators in areas of concern to the court, and police
administrators should demonstrate willingness to cooperate with
prosecutors by adopting policies and procedures necessary for
properly preparing and pr~senting cases.

Neither police nor prosecutor can convict an offender alone; a

concerted, coordinated effort on the part of both is required.
Successful convictions are only obtained when each knows the
capabilities and limitations of the other, shares expertise, and
cooperates to the highest degree possible to maximize probability that
cases will be adjudicated to the ultimate satisfaction of both agencies.

MonitQrin~ of the Investi&ations System:

Monitoring of the investigations system, a mechanism developed to

provide feedback on the entire investigative process, is a continuing
activity that assesses the strengths and weakness of an Mel Program.
Properly done, monitoring allows management the opportunity to
determine if investigative goals are being met. Issues to be examined
during the monitoring process include:

135
• has the quality of preliminary investigations improved?

• has the time necessary to investigate solvable crimes in-

creased?

• have more suspects been identified and apprehended?

• have more cases been referred to and accepted by the

prosecutor's office for prosecutorial action?

• have conviction rates increased?

• have case clearance rates increased?

• have investigative caseloads heen more equitably dis-

tri bu ted?

Affirmative answers to these questions indicate that the MCl Program

is successful; negative answers may mean that additional training or
program restructuring is necessary.

Proper evaluation of an Mel Program requires that ir.vestigative

managers collect and analyze data relative to case assignments, case
progressions, clearance rates, conviction rates and so on.

Role of the Crime Analyst in the MCl Process:

Once an Mel Program is developed, the analyst will be responsible for

providing investigators with suspect leads and may be asked to ke.ep
statistical data. The analyst should keep records relative to:

• the percentage of all reported crime that is initially

deemed solvable

• the percentage of solvable crime that IS solved

• optimum length of assigned cases

• average length of assigned cases

• determination of optimum investigative caseloads

• percentage of investigator time available for investiga-

tion

136
• percentage of investigator time spent on administrative
duties

• number of cases closed by:

o arrest

o referral to other agencies (juvenile authoritie§, di-

version programs, etc.).

o exception (suspect commits suicide, is killed by po-

lice, victim refuses to prosecute suspect, etc.).

• number and types of cases referred to and accepted for

prosecution by the prosecutor's office

• number of cases rejected <by the prosecutor

• reasons for case rejections

• number of convictions obtained.

It is possible that the police agency developing this program has never
kept these types of records before. A considerable amoun'c of the
analyst's time may be spent gathering the data needed to properly
monitor the investigative process. Resist the urge to relegate this task
to a position of minor importance! Examination of these data is
necessary, for it will identify investigative training needs, assess any
need for change in the investigative process, and ultimately contribute
to the heightened efficiency of the entire law enforcement operation.

137
CHAPTER 9

AUTOMATION ISSUES

.
e·'
AUTOMATION ISSUES

Agencies need not have automated information systems to have

effective crime analysis units. However, data collection, collation.
retrieval and analysis are greatly facilitated by the use of a computer
system.

Several companies throughout the United States sell information

systems that have been specifically designed for the law enforcement
community. These range in price from several thousand to a million
dollars or more depending upon the overall sophistication of the
system. Because of the cost involved, administrators considering the
purchase of an automated system should be certain that any system
proposed will adequately meet agency needs. It makes no sense to
purchase a large system when a smaller, less expensive one will
suffice. On the other hand, a small sy~tem that has limited capabilities
to process data or is quickly outgrown will be of little benefit to the
organization.

The best way to determine what type of system will be of greatest

service to an agency is to conduct an automated needs assessment
study. These can be conducted by private consultants or in-house
personnel familiar with computer systems and should address the
following issues:

• what are the outputs desired by the system?

• what data will need to be collected and disseminated?

• what software will be needed to accomplish automation

goals?

• what hardware will be needed to accomplis.h automation

goals?

• what resources will be required to develop an automated

system?

Prepared by Fred Cotton of SEARCH Group, Incorporated, the material

which follows lists the primary information system features and
functions which were considered desirable by one police department.
Needs of other agencies may be different. This list is not intended to
replace a needs auessment study, but to acquaint you with some of

139
the automated outputs desired by various divisions, units and bureaus
of a typical law enforcement organization.

RECORDS DiViSION

CRITICAL:
• Master name and index file
• Call up reports by case number, names, assigned
officer, type of crime
• VCR, BCS and arrest register
• Warrants System
o Track all warrants
o Recall warrants by name, docket, case number
o Track abstracts
• Ability to print complaint forms based on system data
• Single entry for information into the system
• Rapid movement from one screen to another without
going through a hierarchy of menus
• Ability to generate form letters based on data In the
system
• Maintain stolen/recovered/stored/impounded vehicle files
o Abatement
o Evidence
o Impounds
o Value information
• Word processing capability for case narrative linked to
case information. The system should have the ability to
download the narrative to hard copy and clear it from the

140
system under the control of the system aldministrator.
• Audit trail for copies of any case
• Password security system with different levels of security
• Uninterruptable power supply (UPS) back-up

SHOULD BE INCLUDED:
• Soundexsearch on master name index file
• Ability to link names and AKiAs in the master name index
• Ad Hoc query capability on any field across all files
• Vehicle information file linked to master name index file
• Warrant due diligence record
• Warrants linked to master name index file
• Registered persons file
o Narcotics
o Sex
o Arson
o CCW Permits
• License files
o Bicycle license
o Card rooms
o AB C violations
o Pawn shops/second hand dealers
• Track traffic citations
• Track traffic accidents
• Maintain case file number log for audit trail purposes by
o Victim name
o Date

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------------------------------------------- .. - -

o Occurrence
o Location
o Officer
• Maintain business emergency information files
• Electronic spreadsheet capability for budget preparation
• Events calendar for all departmental activities
o Tickler file when appointments or key upcoming dates

OPTIONAL:
• Prepare duty schedule for records pe';rsonnel
• Probation, Parole search conditions and information
• Maintain inventory of Department property
o Shotguns
o Vehicle fleet
o Equipment assigned to officers
o Supplies
• Traffic accident/enforcement analysis module

PATROL OPERATIONS

CRITICAL:
• Officer, shift and division activity log information
o Type of arrest (felony, misdemeanor, warrant, citizen)
o Reports taken by type (felony, misdemeanor, traffic, etc.)
o Citations issueq (hazardous moving, other moving,
parking)
o Specialized miscellaneous activity tracking

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~-~ .---------------~~~~ ~--

Bar checks
· Citizen assists
· Abandoned vehicles
· Other
• Activity broken down by
o Type of call
o Day of week
o Month
o Time of day
o Reporting district or location for multiplt beat
systems
• Field contact report file with query capability on any field for
c()mbination of fields
• Ad Hoc Query capability for incidents and traffic by
any field

SHOULD HAVE:
• Officer scheduling information for any given date range
o Number of officers working
o Number of officers off
o Officer shift assignment history
· Vacation scheduling compared to work schedules
• Tracking officer schedules and work hours (overtime, compo
time, vacation, etc.)
• Crime/workload analysis function with pre-programmed
reports
o Analysis of individual officer activity with standard

143
deviation for reasonable expectation of productivity

OPTIONAL:
• On-line Departmental manual or emergency response
procedures
• Emergency resources file
o Skilled personnel
o Special equipment
• Mutual and requests/responses

ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES

CRITICAL:
• Ad Hoc query of data elements across all files
• Do analysis on Juvenile, Parolees and Probationers
• Ad Hoc report generator capability
• General word processing
• Specialized security for internal affairs documents
'" Electronic spreadsheet with graphing capability
• Track Neighborhood Watch groups

SHOULD BE INCLUDED:

• Ability to generate mailings to Neighborhood Watch groups

• Ability to identify incident by Neighborhood Watch group

• Sign-out register for Crime Prevention equipment

• Maintain employee training files

• Maintain employee personnel files

144
·-. \

• Have system key operators on required training due dates

,. Mail merge capability for word processing

• Forms generation for word processing

• Spell checking and thesaurus capability

• Computer aided design/drawing function

• Presentation quality output device

• Desktop publishing capability for crime prevention

,. Ability to create and maintail1 unique database files

OPTIONAL:

• The ability to move information from the database files

. directly into the electronic spreadsheet

INVESTIGATIONS

CRITICAL:
• Case tracking/Case management
• Track case status (open, pending, closed, court dispositio
etc.)
• Case assignment
• Ad Hoc query across all files

SHOULD BE INCLUDED:
,. Crime trends by
o Reporting district
o Time
o Date

145
.1

o Day of week
o Crime type
°M.O.
• Statistical workload of individual investigators
• Statistical workload of investigations division
o Track bad check files with the ability to
o Search checks by name of sUbject
o Identify amount owed/paid
o Search by victim's name
• Query premises history files

OPTIONAL:

• Generate check notices based on information in the check

files

TRAFFIC BUREAU

CRITICAL:
• Accidents/enforcement by
o Primary violation
Cl Location
o Day of week
o Time of day
o Officer
• Accidents/enforcement by specialized category
°DUI
o Bicycle

146
o Pedestrian
o Hit and Run
o Hazardous materials
• Ad Hoc query capability into traffic files

SHOULD BE INCLUDED:
• Inquire as to returned reports
• Status of reports (pending, completed, follow-up required,
etc.)
• Ability to log citizen complaints by violation or location
• Ability to track temporary statistical information on
accidents and enforcement activity
o DUI during specified periods
o Seat belt violations vs accidents
o Commercial vehicle enforcement activity
• Tracking parking functions
o Parking meter reliability
o Parking meter complaints
o Complains forwarded to court
• Track drivers license suspension/revocation orders
• Computer aided design/drawing with template files of
intersections and measurements
• Electronic spreadsheet for skid mark-speed analysis
• Tracking blood-alcohol levels by
o Case
o Officer
• IBM compatibility for data e~change with PWC

147
• Track traffic and engineering surveys for city locations
o Feed accident data into survey data

OPTIONAL:

• Track habitual violators

PROPERTY SECTION

CRITICAL:
.. Locate items by case file number or by name
• Track property by type
o Evidence
o Stolen/recovered
o Found
o Safe keeping
• Track property by classification
o Narcotics
o Vehicles
o Firearms
o Explosives
o Hazardous materials
• Ad Hoc file query capability on property by any property
field
.. Maintain chain of custody information

SHOULD BE INCLUDED:
• Generate form letters
.. Purge property list based on user defined criteria

148
----.-~~----- --- ---------

.-. I

• Find property by date of occurrence

• Track court disposition/destruction orders
• Find property by
o Officer
o Location
o Storage location
o Serial, model or ID numbers
o NCIC/FCN file control numbers
q Classification
• Check stolen files against recovered files
• Prepare auction list
• Track estimated value of property
• Track recovered and stolen bicycles
o Compare against bicycle license files
• Generate a master inventory list

OPTIONAL:

• Bar code tracking

REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS:

Once informational needs of the agency have been assessed. ~t is

necessary to obtain purchase bids from prospective system vendors.
This is accomplished by writing a Request for Proposal (RFP) and
distributing it to vendors who provide automated products and
services. The RFP explains pr0ject objectives, system requirements.
the scope of services to be provided and so on. The following material
is presented as a guide to help you prepare an RFP:

I. PROBLEM STATEMENT:

149
• Indicate in general terms the problems encountered with the
current system.

• Explain the steps which have been taken to correct those

problems.

• Explain the success or failure of the actions already

taken.

• List the alternatives to the current system and the reason

for the agency's choice of the proposed plan of action over
the other alternatives.

II. STATEMENT OF OVERALL PROJECT OBJECTIVES:

• List the objectives of the new system.
• Identify the general areas which the system would improve.

I I I. DETAILED SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS:

• Group the system requirements into functional areas

Example: CAD requirements

• Provide multi-user, multi-tasking operating environment

with the ability to show split-screen tasks.

• Provide for E-911 interface allowing location information

to be downloaded into the system from telephone
company records.

• Provide a geo-base capability allowing cross reference of

c.all location and premises history information.

• Provide for a master system time source for logging call

information and other time related references. This
system must be able to function properly in the event of
power fail ure.

• Provide for entry and validation of data describing all

types of emergency incid~nts.

• Assist the communications operator in rapidly and

accurately determining the location of each incident.

150
• Assist the operator in screening out redundant reports of
previously reported incidents.

• Notify the communicator of potentially hazardous

situations associated with the incident.

• Assist the communicator in selecting the optimum

combination of field units for assignment to each
incident.

• Assist the communicator in verifying that units have

acknowledged and are responding.

• Support status entry from mobile terminals and

continuously monitor and display the status of all
emerge:1cy field units, assigned and unassigned.

.. • Alert the communicator when a unit has not checked in

within a specific preset time. Allow a manual override
of the alert message/tone.

• Provide for on-line emergency information on businesses

and other facilities and services.

• Provide known associates information for all persons in

the system.

• Provide hard copy information for use in reverting to

manual mode operation in the event of system failure.

• Support switching of messages, in digital form, among all

mobile and fixed terminals within the system.

• Provide on-line access to state and federal sy-stems

including CLETS and NCIC. Provide user ID and audit
trail on all request for outside information.

• Provide on-line maintenance of all required databases.

• Provide a complete detailed log of all system transactions

in machine-processable form, for on-line review and
processing to provide management and administrative
reports. (Describe all required reports.)

151
Example: Investigations

o Provide query capabilities across all files and fields or

combination thereof.

o Provide for case tracking and assignment

o Provide for crime analysis inquiry by location, time,

date, day of week, reporting district or beat, type of
crime and modus operandi.

o Provide monthly management reports (describe

reports).

o Provide tracking of evidence, stolen property, pawned

property and recovered property along with cross
reference or search capability.

• Number the system requirements and use a sub-

numbering system to identify specific tasks under each
group.

• This section explains the precise needs of each section to

be automated. It describes the manner in which systems
must interact and the data which must be available. It
is, in fact, the detailed description of the systems'
functions.

I V. SCOPE OF SERVICES TO BE PROVIDED BY THE

CONTRACTOR:
• A general overview of the services to be provided.
• A description of the software/hardware requirements.

V. PROPOSAL AND CONTRACT REQUIREMENTS:

• Identify the vendor's responsibility in the following areas:

o Installation of all hardware and software at the site.
o Maintenance of hardware and software
o Upgrades of hardware and software

152
o Maintenance of databases (back-ups, purges, etc.)

o Requirements for the system to interact with CLETS/NCIC

system for data exchange.

o Training of system administrator

o Training of users

o Continued training of new staff

o Response time maximums for queries

o Response time maximums for maintenance

o Graduated acceptance/payment agreement

o Disclaimer on agency's right to select another vendor if a

contract agreement cannot be reached.

o Vendor to keep all informati(ln on this project

confidential and secure from unauthorized file access.

o The vendor will agree to place the source code and

technical documentation in escrow against the possibility
of the vendor going out of business.

o The agency will own the source code and technical

documentation for the software in the event the vendor
goes out of business.

o Time lines for each phase of the project and penalties for
late responses to the time lines unless approved by both
parties.

VI• EVALUATION CRITERIA AND SCHEDULE:

o Identification of an evaluation committee

• Identification of any other independent evaluation(s)

• Evaluation schedule with specific dates for evaluations of

the system

• Deadline for RFP mailings

153
• Proposals due

• Evaluation and notification of vendor

• Completion of contract negotiations

• Approval by governing council or board

• Start date for the project

• Date of first evaluation report and related payments

• Date for s~bsequent evaluation reports and related payments

• Date for final acceptance or rejection of the system and

related payments

V I I. PROPOSAL FORMAT AND CONTENT:

• The submitted proposal should be organized In the following

format:

o Title Page

The title page will show the vendor's name, the system
title and the date.

o Letter of Introduction

The vendor must state exactly what they are bidding on.
Within a one page limit, the following must be included:
vendor's name, address and a statement as to whether the
vendor is an individual, partnership or corporation. The
letter will be signed by an individual, partner or officer of
the corporation authorized to bind the corporation.
depending on the legal nature of the vendor. It will also
name the person or persons who will be authorized to
make representations for the vendor, their addresses and
telephone numbers. If this quotation is a joint venture or
involves subcontracting, this must be stated in the letter of
introduction. .

154
o Table of Contents

There will be a comprehensive "Table of Contents" of

material included in the proposal. This index must include
a clear definition of the material identified by page
number and by section reference.

o Description of the System Proposed

The vendor must describe in detail the proposed content of

the work products identified in this project in the section
entitled "Scope of Services to be Provided by the
Contractor" .

o Budget and Project Bid

The vendor must specify in this section a cost breakdown

showing the total maximum cost to the requesting agency
for this project. The budget should be submitted with the
understanding that it will be final and will not be
exceeded. The requesting agency reserves the right to
open the project bidding to other potential vendors in the
event the project budget cannot be mutually agreed upon.

Along with the cost data outlined above, the vendor should
indicate the basis and method of billing the requesting
agency. All services and other items to be billed should be
specifically identified along with a full schedule of billing
rates.

Time is of the essence on this project. The vendor should

specify a project time schedule that recognizes the need for
prompt completion of project goais. The vendor will
submit a detailed time schedule for completion of work
products specified in the "Scope of Services to be Provided
by the Vendor" section of this document. This time
schedule should indicate the monthly billing projected for
work products identified in the budget, as well a~ the
delivery date for each product.

155
o References and Company Information

The vendor will submit a list of current installations of the

proposed product including the agency name, agency
address, zip code~ contact names, telephone numbers and
system installation date.

The vendor will also include the following information

about their corporation: Date incorporated or established,
number of full time employees, total number of
installations, average product cost.

o Resumes of Key Project Staff

The resumes of all key project staff will be included in this

section. The requesting agency reserves the right to
investigate all resumes.

o Affirmative Action Plans

Affirmative action plans of the vendor and sub-vendors (if

any) shall include statistical documentation of affirmative
e
action activities.

o Acceptance of Conditions

By submitting a proposal the vendor affirms that they

accept the following conditions, any of which may be
included in the contract to be entered into by the
requesting agency and the vendor.

The requesting agency may require whatever evidence is

deemed necessary relative to the vendor's financial ability
to complete the contract.

The vendor shall, as a condition of the contract, post a

performance bond and/or agree to the withholding of a
specified percentage of the contract pending satisfactory
completion of the contract.

The requesting agency reserves the right to ask for further

information from the vendor either verbally or in writing.

156
Requests will be addressed to the person(s) authorized by
the vendor to represent the vendor.

The requesting agency reserves the sole right to evaluate

the vendor's representation.

The requesting agency may select a vendor from those

submitting proposals. Said selection shall be made on the
basis of the evaluation criteria set forth in this invitation.
The requesting agency reserves the right to have an
independent corporation or individual evaluate any
submitted proposals. The names of selection committee
members shall not be disclosed until the selection of the
successful vendor is made.

When the vendor has been selected by the evaluation

committee, the requesting agency and the vendor will
negotiate a contract for submission .;0 the City Council for
consideration.

The requesting agency may cancel this project without any

cost or obligation at any time up until the award of the
contract. In the event agreement cannot be reached with
the selected vendor, the requesting agency reserves the
right to select an alternate vendor.

o The following conditions are to be accepted by the vendor if

any work is subcontracted:

1. The vendor is the prime and responsible party for

contracting and communicating the work to be performed
and for channeling other information between the requesting
agency and the sub-vendor(s).

2. The vendor assumes total responsibility for the quality

and quantity of all work performed whether it is undertaken
by the vendor or is subcontracted to another vendor.

3. If sub-vendor involvement is required in the use of a

license, patent, or proprietary process, the vendor is
responsible for obtaining written authorization for the sub-
vendor to use the process or for providing another process,
acceptable to the requesting agency, which is comparable to

157
that which is required. This will be done at no additional
cost or liability to the requesting agency.

4. Any subcontracting must be specified in the vendor's

proposal. Any subcontracting will need prior, expressed
approval from the requesting agency.

o Financial Statements and Contract

The most current financial statements available, to include

income statement and balance sheet, showing the vendor's
current financial st.atus will be presented in this section.
In addition, a copy of the vendor's proposed contract
should also be included.

o Other

Within their quotations, vendors should define any areas

of this request for proposal to which they take exception.
Identify the specific part and paragraph and the reason.

o Additional Information

Material and data not specifically requested for evaluation

but which the vendor feels is essential must not appear in
the proposal section but may appear only in this section.
This has reference to the following types of data:

1. Standard sales brochures and promotional material with

minimal technical content.

2. Pictorial material of the type used as space fillers.

3. Generalized narrative of non-specific nature.

4. If there is no other data the vendor wishes to present.

this section shall contain the statement "There are no
additional items we wish to present."

VIII. ApPENDIX A
DETAILED PROBLEM STATEMENT AND OPERATIONAL
ANALYSIS

o This section should include a narrative description of all tasks

currently being performed in the areas to be announced.'

158
• Each functional area of the agency should have a separate
section and each task should have a separate sub section.
• This section must give the vendor enough information about
the operation of the agency to allow it to determine what
software package will best meets its needs.

IX. APPENDIX B • BACKGROUND STATISTICS

• Include statistical data from the agency concerning volume of
calls for service, information storage, numbers of arrests,
reports, personnel, etc.
• The information in this section will be used by the vendor to
determine the size and scope of the system.

X. APPENDIX C • FACILITY DESCRIPTION

• A detailed description of the facility, including where

computer work stations will be placed, power sources,
CLETS/NCIC lines, 911 phone system and any other
information concerning the physical layout of the facility
should be provided here. A hlueprint type drawing of the
office layout should also be included in this section.

XI. APPENDIX D • STAFFING

• This section should contain information on the organizational
structure of the requesting agency. Organizational charts and
manpower breakdowns assist the vendor in anticipating the
number of work stations necessary.
• A functional relationship matrix may also be helpful in this
area.

159
CHAPTER 10
OVERCOMING RESISTANCE TO THE CRIME
ANAL YSIS PROGRAM
=
0YERCOMING RESISTANCE TO THE CRIME ANALYSIS PROGRAM

If you are just beginning to develop a crime analysis program, the title
of this chapter may be a little disconcerting for it presupposes that
program development efforts will, in fact, be met with resistance. This
is not true for all agencies; but it occurs in enough of them that its
discussion is warranted. Don't panic! The encountering of at least
some resistance to your program is normal and should be no cause for
concern if you have prepared for and developed strategies to deal
with it.

One would think any program that could provide law enforcement .
officers with suspect leads, accurate knowledge of when and where
crimes are occurring, and a. heightened ability to identify, apprehend.
and successfully prosecute criminals would be warmly received. Why
might people be resistant to it? Because of the misconceptions they
may have about the program. These misconceptions, in tandem with
strategies that can be employed to overcome the resistance they
engender, are discussed below.

PROGRAM MISCONCEPTIONS:

The "Here We Go A.:ain Syndrome";

"Innovative" law enforcement programs have been presented over the

last 20 years, each with much fanfare, and touted as the program to
cure all ills. Many never lived up to expectations and people became
skeptical as a result.

The announcement that another "unique" program is about to be

unveiled may therefore be met with cynicism. We too have been
disappointed with past programs, but believe that this program works
and can be of tremendous assistance to police departments.
Convincing others of its merit, however, may not be an easy task.

Strate.:ies For Overcomin.: Resistance:

1. Acknowledge that past programs have been ineffective. and

often fostered feelings of unfulfilled expectations.

2. Recognize that experience with unsuccessful programs may have

created a general feeling of skepticism; accept this as natural.
and do not take it personally.

161
3. Request that the chief executive meet with staff and user group
members to explain program benefits. If in-person meetings
cannot be arranged, request that the chief executive circulate a
department-wide memorandum to accomplish this objective,

4. Use the publications referenced in this book to cite the success of

agencies which have adopted the program.

5. Invite representatives from successful crime analysis programs

to share their experiences with staff and user groups.

6. Offer to take staff and user group members on VISItS to other

crime analysis programs. Arrange to have them talk with crime'
analysis personnel, patrol and investigative officers, supervisors
and executives.

Is This Productivity Measurement in Dis~u.~

Because the crime analysis unit collects a wide variety of information

regarding everything from the number of criminal incidents that occur
to the number of hours spent on continuing investigations, some
people consider the unit's repository of information a source which can
be accessed by management to measure productivity. Those who fear
this possibility have the gut-wrenching feeling that "the brass is going
to find out about me and they're going to fire my rear end! I'm going
to lose my job!" This is not likely to happen-at least not as a result of
this program. And if it does? Well, the brass probably k.new about
these individuals' lack of effort long before you walked through the
door.

Strate~ies to Qverc~me Resistance:

1. Be sure executives realize that the crim~ analysis program is not

designed to monitor productivity and encourage them to resist
using it for this purpose.

2. Focus primary effort on materials that personnel will consider

beneficial rather than detrimental to them (crime information,
suspect l~ads! etc.). 23

23 It is unlikely that yQIl will be able to avoid colItcting this information

forever. For that mauer. it will be necessary when you develop your MPO and

162
3. Take advantage of or create opportunities to explain the true
purpose of the program. Promote the understanding that, with
implementation of the program, the agency will develop a
heightened ability to identify and apprehend criminals.

Computers Will Replace Us All:

Most departments have reaped significant benefits from automating.

Implementation of a crime analysis program often serves as the
impetus to computerize a law enforcement agency; some people fear a
loss of jobs as a consequence. We are unaware of any police agency
which dismissed personnel solely because it acquired computers. As a
general rule, the only thin.g that happened was that people were freed
to perform other tasks. Automation serves to create jobs in many
agencies.

We have been amazed at the paranoia exhibited by people throughout

the country when it was announced that a computer was being
purchased for their agencies. The concern is caricaturized as follows:
"Have you heard that the department is going to buy one of those
\ fancy new computers? I mean, you've never seen a computer this big.
e It's going to replace us all! Records bureau will be a thing of the past.
Even typists and clerks will lose their jobs! None of this would have
happened if we hadn't gotten involved with that new crime analysis
program."

Strate~ies to Overcome Resistance:

1. Prepare a needs assessmenL to determine whether the

acquisition of an automated data processing system is justified.
If it is, refer to the next strategy.

2. Determine how many people are necessary for, and how much
time is currently spent on, data processing. Identify the
personnel and time savings anticipated because of automation.
Outline other tasks personnel can perform if their available time

Mel Programs. Hopefully. however. you will be allowed to use this information
not for productivi~y measurement. but for program development purposes.
Remember, if you are to obtiin the acceptance of the troops. you must be
considered one of the "good guys." Those who conduct productivity studies are
often viewed as the enemy. Therefore. to the areatest extent possible. resist the
-:ffons of those who asle you to conduct them.

163
--~~-----------~~----

is increased. Finally, determine who would like to perform those

other tasks.

3. An automated system will assi~t people by providing them

quicker access to informatioil. Explain that people no longer
needed for data processing will provide valuable service to the
department by performing other duties.

4. Recognize and accept that some folks are intimidated by

computers. Offer to show them how the computer works and
what it can do for them. Set up dummy files and let people play
with them. Tell them they can neither corrupt these files nor
damage the computer in any way. 24 Let people know they are
being given 2I,n opportunity to expand their knowledge and skills
by working in a computer-aided environment.

5. Help personnel develop computer applications of specific

assistance to them; show them how to use various software
packages to create their own files and programs.

Civilians Are Goinl: to Tell Me How to Do My Job:

This seems to be more of a concern among detectives than among

patrol personnel. They have sometimes expressed the OpInIOn that
they do not need anyone-let alone a civilian-to tell ·them who they
should be looking for and how much time they should spend on their
investigations.

Detectives can be particularly difficult to handle, and will often refuse

to provide assistance or receive help from an analyst. This inhibits the
free exchange of information necessary for the program's success.
Similarly, patrol officers may see analysts as well-intentioned people,

24 Be sure to tell people to take obvious precautions against coffee spills.

keyboard abuse and other things that will damage computers or corrupt files.
Also inform them of any peculiarities of the system. These may relate to the
need to leave it on, indications that it is not working properly and so on.

To familiarize personnel with the operation and the "feel" of the equipment.
some agencies have installed computer games c;>n their automated systems. We
have no panicular objection to this practice as long as it serves its intended
purpose. Problems sometimes arise. however. when game playing becomes an
end in itself. When this occurs. the games should be removed. After all.
occasional worle breaks are not an unreasonable request of management!

164
but too unfamiliar with police operations and the "ways of the world"
to be of any real assistance.

Strate~ies to Overcome Resistance:

1. The unit supervisor should have made it clear that the analyst
would not be telling anyone how to do his or her job prior to the
analyst's initial entry into the department. Analysts only
provide information; how that information is ultimately used is
up to management and staff. Stress this point.

2. Get to know people, attend officer briefings on all shifts, and ride
with on-duty officers. If you are so inclined, work out in the
gym with them or volunteer to be on their softball team. Offer
to do some "grunt work" for detectives. In short, seek
opportunities to talk with people and explain the program to
them.

3. Do not feel intimidated as a newcomer to the law enforcement

. profession. Allow others to teach you the trade and ask
personnel for suggestions relative to the type of products and
services they would like to receive.

4. Request permIssIon to go to burglary, robbery and other such

meetings. These meetings will give you a feel for the type of
crime occurring throughout your jurisdiction and provide you
with the opportunity to get acquainted with investigative
personnel.

5. Accept the fact that you may be tested. This is normal. Officers
and in\'estigators often want to determine if you are really a
team player before trusting you with information. Expect to go
through an initiation period and accept whatever teasing or
ribbing accompanies it.

6. You will have many opportunities to interact with people in

group settings. While these are valuable and encouraged, they
may not be nearly so revealing as conversations you have with
people individually. Let them tell you of their job needs and
concerns. If you can resolve a problem for them, do so. Your
actions will help you gain their support.

165
7. Respond quickly to requests for information and assistance.
Delay is the deadliest form of rejection. People will continue to
ask for help only to the extent that they know it will be
provided.

8. Show products, bulletins and proposed analysis reports to line

level as well as supervisory staff. Ask these people if the
documents contain information useful to them. Solicit their
opinions as to content, style and format. Use their suggestions to
help design your materials.

9. Should you encounter a particularly stubborn individual who

continually refuses to use your products and services, you may
wish to explain that you can be of help and that the primary
reason you are there is to provide assistance. Request that he or
she give you that opportunity.

10. Recognize that some people will never allow you to truly interact
with them no matter what you do. When this occurs. accept it
and do not take it personally. Be content with the knowledge
that others in the organization will receive great benefit from
your work.
e
The Pro~ram Will Take Away Our Freedom:

One of the primary objectives for creating a crime analysis program is

to increase the efficiency of patrol and investigative operations. Of
necessity, this involves developing directed patrol programs and
restructuring investigation aCtIVItles. Officers who view these actions
~\,~ attempts to take away their freedom fail to recognize the goals of
the program.

While the freedom of patrol officers will become diminished to some

degree, this is done to maximize the likelihood of their apprehending
perpetrators. It's not that the department wants to keep them from
fishing, it just wants to make sure they're fishing in the right places at
the right times.

Detectives may view the program as an attempt to remove their

"mystique." For years there has been a rather impenetrable cloud 'Jf
mystery which has surrounded members of investigative units. No
one was actually sure of what they did, but all assumed it was of
utmost importance. "What are you working on, Joe?" "Can't tell

166
you ... too secretl" With all due respect to the maJonty of hud-working
investigators throughout the nation-and indeed their number is
legion-this mystique provides excellent cover for those few detectives
who are less than attentive to their duties. With the implementation
of a crime analysis unit, however, come& the removal of the mystique
and the scrutiny of their efforts. This may not be welcomed by certain
individuals who have grown comfortable in positions where
accountability was unquestioned.

Strateaies to Qver~ome Resistance:

1. We hav(~ yet to meet the police officer or investigator who does

not enjoy putting crooks in jail. Use of crime analysis
information enhances their ability to accomplish this objective.
Therefore, it should be emphasized that the crime analysis unit
is being =reated to facilitate the achievement of crime
suppression goals.

Fear of a loss of freedom may best be mollified initially by the

chief executive of the organization and mitigated routinely by
the supervisor of the crime analysis unit. Emphasis should be
focused on the desirability of having officers patrol locations
which are in greatest need of police attention.' It should also be
noted that officers are likely to make more arrests in these areas
as well. If that doesn't evoke great tears of joy, nothing will!

2. Investigators should be told that the program is designed to

relieve them of many administrative tasks. It should also be
explained that the crime analyst has been hired to free
detectives of much of the tedious background work germane to
the investigative process.

3. Fear of a loss of freedom will diminish once officers and

investigators realize pos.itive results from crime analysis
information. In recognition thereof, analysts often hurry to put
out information in their desire to get their first "hit." Resist the
urge to proceed too quickly.

Be exceedingly cautious in dispensing information early in the

program; two or three crimes seldo'n constitute a crime wave.
Be sure you have enough information to justify predictions
before the troops cry "Tallyho" and sally forth into battle. Use

167
statistical techniques (explained in this book) to determine event
probabilities and provide this information to your users.

Remember: there are no absolutes in this business. You don't

have a crystal ball, and the best you can do is estimate the likely
occurrence of criminal events. Don't overstate your capabilities
and lead people to believe that you can do the impossible. Do
not use phrases like "The suspect will rob Pop's Market next
Tuesday at 9:03 P.M." When such language is used, a host of
circumstances will wondrously conspire together to guarantee
that the suspect will defini~ely not appear at the appointed
hours. That leaves you, the analyst, with egg on your face.
Instead, use phrases such as, "Based on his past pattern of
criminal activity, we have determined that there is a 68 percent
chance that the suspect will rob a market in beat 3 next Tuesday
between 8 and 10 P.M. Pop's Market should be considered a
possible target." Presented this way, everybody knows that
there is a good chance the suspect will commit a crime but that
its commission is not guaranteed. Your reputation will not be
severely damaged should the crime not occur.

f:verythin~'s Goin~ to Chan2e Around Here:

Agencies experience change as a result of the development of a crime

analysis program. Forms change, policies and procedures change,
patrol and investigative methods change, and shift hours and beat
configurations change. Those who anticipate change possess an
accurate assessment of the future; problems only arise when those
anticipating change assume changes will be negative.

Most changes noted above will not be warmly received-at least not
initially. Officer's may resent the extra work created by the
introduction of new forms, new shift schedules may prove
inconvenient, and many complaints may be voiced during the early
stages of program development.

StrateiY to Overcome Resistance:

Focus on the need for change and the resulting benefits. Explain that
changes will heighten efficiency and increase apprehension effort.
Specific complaints may be addressed as follows:

168
• New Forms are needed to more accurately and
comprehensively capture criminal incident and suspect data.
Data collected from the forms will be analyzed to inform
personnel of the nature of crime problems (probable locations.
dates and times of future occurrences) and to build known
offender. MO and similar files to aid the offender identification
process.

• Policy and procedural changes ensure that efforts of all

personnel are directed toward accomplishment of
departmentally-defined goals and objectives. Through use of
crime analysis information, supervisors will be able to make
more informed-and more objective-deployment. workload. case
assignment and other decisions regarding resource allocations.

Policies and procedures are to the law enforcement agency what

a conductor is to an orchestra. All musicians know how to play
their instruments. keep time and so on and could play a tune
without a director. However, since the interpretation of each
part would be left to the discretion of each musician, the final
rendition might be quite displeasing to the audience. The
conductor provides a unified interpretation of the music.
Similarly, police officers know how to use their equipment.
realize that criminals must be apprehended .and are generally
aware of the job to be done. Policies and procedures serve to
develop a uniform approach to guide the delivery of law
enforcement services.

• Patrol and investigative methods win change to maXImIze

return on investment. Utilization of alternative police response
and directed pa,;rol techniques will increase the available time of
officers and aillow them to patrol those areas which have the
greatest existing or potential crime problems. Investigators will
be able to spend their time primarily working cases that can be
solved. Use of new patrol and investigative methods will
provide an opportunity to enhance the efficiency of both
operations and achieve greater results without an increase in
cost.

• Shift hours and beat confilurations will change to

properly deploy personnel and evenly distribu,e workloads. It
should be explained that officers on some shiflS are running
from call to call because personnel are not adequately deployed

169
during peak time hours. Others may be overworked because
beats were originally drawn without regard for the volume of
work generated by each beat.

Should decisions be made to change shift hours and beat

configurations to better meet the demands of the jurisdiction.
explain that such decisions were not made capriciously. Rather.
examination of calls for service records, officer-initiated incident
and other data led to the determination of how many officers
were needed for each twenty-four hour period. Assessment of
the activity generated by each area of the jurisdiction
necesdtated beat configuration changes. Finally, assure
personnel that changes should result in the following benefits:

o an increase in uncommitted patrol time

o greater availability of manpower during peak time hours

o greater availability and quicker response of back-up

uni ts

o more equitable distribution of workloads

o relief from the overworked/und~rworked syndrome

o less need to stay after work to complete reports which.

due to time constraints, could not be completed during
regular duty hours.

SUMMARY:

Few crime analysts are able to implement a crime analysis program

without encountering some resistance. Few people really like change;
police officers are no exception. We all tend to feel secure in our
comfort zones and don't really appreciate being pulled out of them.
Control-oriented individuals may have an especially hard time dealing
with' change, and this is not hard to understand.

Police officers tell people what to do all day long and usually get their
way. If they determine someone is going to get a ticket or go to jail.
that happens. It doesn't take long for officers to become so
accustomed to controlling others that they becr)me resistant to being
controlled. They will accept control from departmental executives and
supervisors (usually), but seldom from anyone else. That this creates

170
problems in their interpersonal relationships is understood by police
psychologists throughout the nation.

Officers may see the analyst as yet another person trying to control
their actions and shake them out of their comfort zones. You and your
program may initially be perceived as tools the department will use to
"fix what ain't broke." For the sake of your own self-esteem, realize
that this interplay of personal dynamics creates resistance to
programs. Expect it, prepare for it, and do not take it personally. Be
yourself. Learn from the officers, provide them with what they' want
and need {\nd you will eventually gain the acceptance you desire .

171
PART TWO:

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR CRIME ANAL YSTS

CHAPTER 11

STATISTICS AND THE CRIME ANALYSIS

PROCESS

•
STATISTICS AND THE CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS

Much of police work is concerned with numbers. The number of

burglaries in a month or year, the amount of time it takes to respond
to calls-far-service, the street price of a narcotic, the number of patrol
officers available for deployment, clock times that a series of crimes
have occurred, comparisons of this year's "things" with the same
"things" of last year, and the number of dollars which comprise a
department's budget are but a few examples of the role played by
numbers to facilitate the decision-making process.

Concern with numbers can be found at all levels of a police

organization. A police chief or sheriff is expected to reduce (the
number of) crimes, educate (numbers of) children to resist drug use,
set up (numbers of) neighborhood watch programs, and answer
(numbers of) calls of every kind· in the shortest possible time
(numbers of minutes). Further, these objectives, along with many
others, must be accomplished with limited (& dollar number) funds.
No agency has a bottomless pot of gold.

• Of necessity, the concern with numbers by executives will be a shared

concern of others throughout the police organization. Subordinates
become concerned with patrol workloads, personnel and materiel
available for deployment, deployment schedules and tactics, numbers
of crimes by type, time, location, day of the week, and so on. Numbers
of persons arrested and the numbers of cases cleared, closed or
suspended also need to be counted and tracked. These numbers can
be manipulated to generate other numbers that will facilitate
development of directed patrol/tactical action plans, help us to
effectively manage criminal investigations and ensure the proper
allocation of police resources.

The "ABCs" are components of spoken and written language. Numbers

are components of mathematical language. The letters "saynasli" mean
nothing in and of themselves until reordered into the word "analysis."
So also the numbers 64, 4, 16, 1, 8, 32, 2 appear to be without
meaning until we reorder them as 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 and find that
each number is twice its predecessor. By themselves, numbers are
usually meaningless. Given order, however, we often find that
numbers can communicate an idea just as ordering letters of the
alphabet c.an lead to a work of poetry.

174
The role of the crime analyst is to give order to the myriad numbers
generated in a police agency. Only in the ordering of numbers can we
make rational decisions that are baseJ on quantitative factors. The
"ordering" of numbers is known collectively as mathematics.
Mathematics, like language, have various forms. The world of spoken
and written language is COillprised of English, French, Spanish, and a
planet full of other languages and dialects. The language of
mathematics is comprised of algebra, geometry, calculus, and so on. In
crime analysis, we communicate Inost effectively through use of the
mathematical language known as "statistics."

EARLY STATISTICS:

Statistics is not a new mathematical language nor did it come from

anything but humble roots. Centuries ago, statistics were primarily
used to keep state records. The w'ord "statistics" comes from the
German "statis-tik," state-affairs. In China, under the Chou Dynasty of
2000 BC, census lists were maintained for determining available
warriors and for estimating revenues and expenditures. Similar lists
were kept in ancient India and Egypt In pre-conquest Peru, in the
absence of all writing, the Incas kept census records on colored and
knotted strings. Indeed, the origin of writing itself may lie in the
record keeping requirements of early civilizations. We know that the
I
Phoenicians, who are credited with inventing the alphabet around
1600 Be, were the principal international traders of their day. As
such, they had an urgent and practical need for an z~ccurate and
convenient system to store their data. Until the invention of the
computer nearly four thousand years later, however, the best storage
system was the Phoenician invention of symbols to represent the
sounds of speech.

DESCRIPTIVE AND INFERENTIAL STATISTICS:

Descriptive statistics are summaries that describe the more prominent

features of a mass of data. These summaries include descriptive
measures such as means and percentiles, tables, charts and graphs, all
of which are encountered by the crime analyst. Statistical inferences
are the generalizations or conclusions we can draw from the data we
study. Most crime analysis problems are inferential in nature, and it
is with the inferential role that modem crime analysis is most
frequently identified.

175
From the crime analyst's point of view. descriptive and inferential
statistics are inexltricably linked. The number of robberies committed
over a period of time can be shown on a table or I grapb (descriptive
statistics). However, by observing a criminal's habit pattern or MO,
the analyst is often able to infer or predict what the criminal will do
next (inferential statistics). This information can be used to develop
directed patrol or tactical action plans or to aid detectives with their
investigations. Indeed, correlating behavior to individuals is often the
most effective way we have of assisting the investigative process.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS:

A question which is often raised by new crime analysts is, "Does

statistical analysis require the use of advanced mathematics?" No.
Analysts need to know some elementary algebra and have a fair
measure of common sense. This does not imply that a full treatment
of the mathematical foundations of statistical inference can be
developed with no more than elementary algebra. It does mean that a
sound understanding of the basic mathematical concepts and thleir
application to police problems can be achieved without additional

• mathematical training. We constantly use the creations of the human

mind without fully understand:ng their logical foundation. We usc
language without mastering linguistics, we use money without having
attended business schools and we even become parents without
having a child development degree! S(.') too was mankind using
numbers for thousands of years before Bertrand Russell (1872·1970)
devised the first acceptable definition of a natural number.

ST ATISTICS AND COMPUTERS:

The bulk of modem statistical theory was known by 1930, but it was
insufficiently used. This was because the accumulation &ond analysis of
statistical data, even with the aid of powerful theory, involved
performing tedious and often overwhelming computations. Before the
arrival of electronic data processing, it was not practical to carry out
the lengthy calculations required by the theory. Today, this obstacle
has been removed and we see a vast increase in the use of statistical
analysis, particularly by those employed by law enforcement agencies.
Anymore, the tedious mechanics of deriving answers to analytical
problems has been leO to the computer.

Does this mean that it is no longer necessary to study statistics? No.

But it does mean that it is no longer necessary to study the

176
computational tricks and shortcv.ts required by manual computations.
For our purposes, the present need is to master statistical concepts and
to learn how to apply them to crime analysis work. That's what the
rest of this book is all about.

OVERCOMING NUMEROPHOBIA:

Mc.lst people have fears of one sort or another. While some folks are
affilid of heights or enclosed places, others are plagued by
numerophobia, a fear of numbers. This often results from one's
having had difficulty with theIll in school and his or her coming to the
conclusion that "I'm just no good at math." For these people, balancing
even a checkbook is a traumatic experience that is accompanied by
hair pulling, chest beating and frequent expressions of pain and
suffering.

If this describes you, here's the good news. The following chapters
have been written just for you! They were written on the assumption
that you have no prior experience doing statistical or analytical work.
Further, the material is presented without the use of complicated
formulas and the technical jargon which often accompanies statistical
texts. If you can add, subtract, multiply and divide-or use a calculator
that performs these functions-you should be able to follow the
examples given. You may then apply the principles which are
demonstrated to your work.

We have one last suggestion. Give yourstlJ a chance to work through

the material. Don't automatically assume that because you may not ue
fluent with numbers that the material will be difficult to understand.
It isn't. Take your time and familiarize yourself with one concept
before moving on to another. Before long, you'll be able to use these
concepts to solve the "real-life" analytical problems that confront you
on the job.

177
CHAPTER 12
GETTING STARTED
GEITING STARTED

Often the most effective way to describe, explore and summarize a selL
of numben is to look at "pictures" of these numbers. Data graphics
(pictorial representations of sets of numbers) visually d~splay
measured or computed quantities by means of a coordinate synem,
points, lines, numbers, symbols, shadings, and color. At their best,
graphics are instruments for representing quantitative information
and well-designed data graphics are usually both simple and very
effective.

The FreQuency Table:

Before graphing or analysis can begin, the analyst must organize the
data. Picture a month of crime reports and field interviews as they
were handed to you. The days of occurrence of all crimes are jumbled,
as are the hours, the locations, and other elements that have been
included. All of these "facts" are of little value if they are not
organized in a meaningful manner. We organize data so that we may
look for such things as the range in the values (smallest to largest),
any' apparent trends, values around which the data: tend to group,

• values that appear most frequently, etc. The more patterns we can
identify, the more likely we, as crime analysts, will understand what'S
going on "out there".

Data, before they are arranged and considered, are called "raw data".
They are "raw" because they are not organized. Consider being
requested to give an overview of response times for calls-for-service.
Dispatch provides the following raw data (in minutes):

5 15 14 7 6 6 12 10 9 8
7 6 8 7 7 9 10 9 S 10

The data liven to you in this form do not present anything

meaninlful.

The flI'st thing to do to correct this situation is to array the data. The
simple data array arranges data from lowest value to highest value in
ascending order, or from highest to lowest value in descending order.
For example, response times could be arrayed u follows:

S S 6 6 677 7 7 8
8 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 14 1S

179
From this simple array:
(1) The analyst can quickly see highest and 'lowest values
wi thin the data.

(2) The analyst can easily partition the data into mean-
ingful sections.

(3) The analyst can see whether any value appears more
than once.
(4) The analyst can sec intervals between values.

In spite of these advantages, a data array may not be the most

advantageous way to organize data. Because an array lists all data, it
can be quite cumbersome when a large amount of data are involved.
In these cases, we need to compress the data while retaining their
utility. To accomplish this compression a chart, referred to as a
frequency table of un grouped data, would be constructed. Using data
from the previous example, list the values of all unique response times
in a column labelled "X". Next to each unit of time, in a column
labelled Itf" (for frequency), indicate how often each response time was
recorded. Such a frequency table would look like:

X f

5 2
6 3
7 4
8 2
9 3
10 3
12 1
14 1
15 1
20 Column Total

Now let's assume that the person who requested this analysis can't get
a feeling for the distribution of response times from reading numbers
in the frequency column and would prefer to see percentages. To
accomplish this modification, simply total the frequency column (sum
= 20 in our case), divide each frequency by that total, multiply the

180
resultinl decimal by 100% and enter the final resuh in a column
labelled ",.-. Our revised frequ~ncy table would then be:

X f

S 2
"
10 (2/20) X 100 = 10
6 3 IS (3120) X 100 = 15
7 4 20 etc.
8 2 10
9 3 15
10 3 IS
12 1 S
14 1 S
15 1 5

By expanding our frequency table to include percentages, we have

helped our analyst answer a variety of questions. In addition to
advising that 10% of all calls were responded to in 8 minutes, the
analyst may want to know the percentage of calls answered in less
than 8 minutes. Note that the response time for some calls was S

•
minutes, for some it was 6 minutes, and for some it was 7 minutes. By
adding the percentages representative of these response times, the
analyst sees that 45% of the calls took fewer than 8 minutes to
respond to. Similarly, 15% took more than 10 minutes. to get to.
Adding percentages is a lot ea§ier than recomputing each time a query
is made.

Data can also be compressed imo a frequency table of "grouped data".

Grouped data are data organized into intervals. For example, using the
previous example of response times, a frequency table of grouped data
could look like:

Intervals f
of response times (minutes)
4-5 2
6 •7 7
8 -9 5
10 - 11 3
12 - 13 1
14 • 15 l.
20 Column Total

181
We could also expand our grouped data frequency chan by adding
associated percentales. Such an expansion would look like:

Intervals f
of response time (minutes)

4 .. S 2 10 (2/20) X 100 =10

6 .. 7 7 35 (7/20) X 100 =35
8 .. 9 S 25 etc.
10 .. 11
12 .. 13
3
1
15
,
14 .. IS 2 10
Grouped data frequency charts are often used in crime analysis.
Examples include the grouping of individuals by tile, the grouping of
dollar losses from burglaries, or the grouping of crimes by reponing
districts. Because grouped data frequency tables will frequently be of
use to you in your work, let'S examine the procedures necessary for
constructing one correctly. .

(1) Decide upon the number of intervals. As a rule,

analysts rarely use less than five, or more than ten,
e
intervals.

(2) Decide upon the size of the intervAl. As a rule, use

intervals of 2, 3, S, 10, or 20. If you are working with
age, and have decided to use an interval of 2, an
interval might be 15 .. 17 or 19·21 years of age. If you
are working with the value of propeny taken in
burglaries, an interval of 2 could well mean 52,000..
$4,000 or S13,()()"S15,000. The interval is the unit of
meuurement you choose.

(3) The lower limit of the fwe inclusive category should .

be evenly divisible by the interval you selected. If
you choose an interval of 2~ the fust c::atelory should
be evenly divisible by two. Two, 4, 6, etc. are evenly
divisible by two, whereu categories of 3, 5, 7. etc., are
noL This rule explains the selection of 4-5 as our rust
inclusive category in the response time example. even
though the lowest actual value was 5. e
182
Let's apply this reasoning to our exemplary group/cd data of response
times. We first determine the "range" of our distribution:

Range = (highest score • lowest score) ... 1

In our example, the range for the distribution of our response times is:
Range = (longest response time • shortest response
time) + 1
Range = (15 • 5) + 1
Range = 11*

* The range of a set of values is not the same as the difference. The
difference is simply the lowest value of a set subtracted from the
highest whereas the range includes both the highest and the lowest
values. For example, the set of values 61, 62, 63, 64, and 6S has a
difference of (65·61= 4) whereas the set "ranges" over 5 distinct
values.

Next we compute the number of data groups and divide the range by
the interval we would like to use. We chose an interval of 2. If the
result of this division is a number between 5 and 10, we have met the
first and second requirements for constructing a grouped data
frequency table correctly (see 1 and 2 above). In our response time
example, we get

Total number of intervals = 11 (range) / 2 (interval)

= 5.5 (rounded off, 6)

Finally, we must choose a lowest value for our table. Five minutes is
the lowest response time in the distribution. Five, however. is not
evenly divisible by the interval we chose (5/2=2.5). To meet the third
requirement above, we select the first number below 5 which is
evenly divisible by our chosen interval. In this example, that value is
4 (4/2=2). We now have the basic elements of our grouped frequency
table:
Interval 2 =
Number of groups • 6

Lowest value = 4

Applying these elements, we get the groups:

l~
4 .. 5
6 .. 7
8 .. 9
10 - 11
12 - 13
14 - 15

The analyst chooses which factors to count. The factors you select, "X",
are known as independent variables. Once "X" is chosen, the number
of elements of "X" is provided by the data that you have collected.
Resulting frequencies of occurrence of each data element "X" are
referred to as "f", and are known as dependent variables.

Assume your supervisor is interested in burglaries in your

community. The first thing you would do is collect all crime reports
dealing with burglary. Now, start by building a frequency table of the
number of burglaries reported by day-of.. the-week. Pay-of.. the-week
is your independent variable, and based on that choice of independent
variable, you will end up with a frequency table containing seven
entries (one for each day of the week) in column "X" and a
corresponding number in column "f" showing the number of burglaries
reported each day. You could just as easily have chosen hour of the
day and compiled a grouped data frequency table comprised of
twenty .. four entries. Or you could have chosen to count burglaries by
beat number, reporting district, type of premise burglarized, etc.

You can also get more sophisticated and hold one independent variable
constant while counting another. For example, you could hold a day of
the week constant and count the number of burglaries by reporting
qistrict. Or, you could construct a table illustrating the pattern of
burglary throughout your jurisdiction on a particular date.

You are not limited to one independent choice. Two, three, or more
independent variables can be held constant while the distribution of
other variables is counted. You can hold both day-of-the-week and
reporting district constant and count the number of occurrences of a
particular crime by hour of the day. Your choices are limited only by
the data you have collected, your imagination, and experience.

The purpose of counting is to identify those factors on which

operational decisions can be based. For example, if your counting
indicates that the frequency of burglaries is particularly large in RD

184
123 on Wednesdays between 1500 and 1700, patrol resources could
be assigned accordingly.

Which independent variables sh.ould be counted? It depends upon the

crime and the experience of the analyst. There is no "cut and dried"
answer. The analyst must work with the data to develop a "feeling"
for the common (or most frequently counted) factors. Only by
working with specific data can common factors be identified.

Crime patterns and crime series vary. Experienced analysts have

found that the factors listed below often help determine a pattern, if a
pattern exists. Numbers in parentheses suggest the order in which
you may want to search your data.

If you are working with residential burglaries, try:

Geographic Factors (1)

Time Factors (2)
Property Loss Descriptors (2)
Target Descriptors (2)
Physical Evidence Descriptors (2)

• Specific M.O. Factors (2)

Suspect Vehicle Descriptors (3)
Suspect Descriptors (3)

If your problem involves commercial/business burglaries, try:

Geographic Factors (1)

Target Descriptors (1)
Specific M.O. Factors (1)
Property Loss Descriptors (2)
Physical Evidence Descriptors (2)
Time Factors (3)
Suspect Vehicle Descriptors (3)
Suspect Descriptors (3)

If your problem involves thefts from vehicles try:

Geographic Factors (1)

Property Loss Descriptors (1)
Suspect Vehicle Descriptors (1)
Time Factors (2)
Target Descriptors (2)

185
·.

Physical Evidence Descriptors (2)

Specific M.O. Factors (2)
Suspect Descriptors (3)

If your jurisdiction is concerned with strong-arm robberies or thefts

trom persons, try:

Geographic Factors (1)

Time Factors ( 1)
Victim Descriptors (1)
Property Loss Descriptors (2)
Physical Evidence Descriptors (2)
Specific M.O. Factors (2)
Suspect Descriptors (2)
Suspect Vehicle Descriptors (3)

For armed robberies, try:

Geographic Factors (1)

Time Factors (1)
Suspect Descriptors (1)
Target Descriptors (2)
Specific M.O. Factors (2)
Suspect Vehicle Descriptors (2)
Property Loss Descriptors (3)
Physical Evidence Descriptors (3)

The following may be important if sexual offenses are being analyzed:

Time Factors (1)

Victim Descriptors (1)
Suspect Descriptors (l)
Victim-Suspect Relationship (1)
Geographic Fac:tors (2)
Physical Evidence Factors (2)
Specific M.O. F:actors (2)
Suspect Vehicle Descriptors (3)

Remember, these variables are only suggestions. The best solution

will be found by your persistence in identifying the most significant
variables, if any.

186
An Exemplary Data Search:
To illustrate this point, Mr. Aren.berg, one of the authors, cites the
experience of the Dallas, Texas, Police Department. In conceptualizing
the development of a fully automated pattern detection system, Dallas
personnel first thought that every offense committed in the city every
day should be compared to every other offense committed over a
three to six month period and to all known offenders. It became
readily apparent that the sheer size of the data processing implied in
such comparing made such an effort impractical. Obviously, an
effecti ve limiting approach was needed that would both reduce
insignifica'nt comparisons and select the most probable offense
similarities.

Pertaining to limitation, the first decision was to compare an offense

only against its own crime category .• Investigators felt it was more
important to compare offenses in the same category for a longer
period of time than to compare an offense against every crime

,
category for a shorter time period. An important exception was rape.
Rapes should be compared against residential burglary offenses but
not vice versa. Index crimes should be compared within crime
categories for 40 day periods relative to murder, rape, robbery and
aggravated assault, and to 30 day periods relative to burglary, larceny,
and auto theft. In Dallas, as in most jurisdictions, the former set of
index crimes occurs less frequently than the latter. Thus~ for these
offenses, an extra ten days was given to the data collection and
comparison process. To limit the similarities reported by the system
to only those that would have significance to a criminal investigation,
it was found necessary to consider not only the degree of similarity
between two offenses, but the significance of the similarity as well.
Moreover, the offenses considered for similarity had to contain
significant or unique data.

For example, a match on suspect vehicle license numbers would be

considered uniquely significant and conclusive for all offense
comparisons. On the other hand, suppose a witness described a male
suspect's height as 5'9". Most males in the U.S., including criminal
suspects, range in height from 5'7" to 6'0". Consequently, since a
height of 5'9" would be far from unique, it would be of little help in
identifying a possible perpetrF,tor or matching one crime with another.

•
However, if a suspect's height was unusual, less than 5'2" for instance,
the uniqueness would be significant.

187
Grapbina:

A graph is a pictorial representation of data, constructed for the

purpose of illustrating changes in one variable or for comparing
several similar or related variables.

A graph may be the best way of presenting data to people. Readers of

graphs can see the magnitude of the factors being presented and the
relationship between these factors at the same time.

Constructing graphs is not difficult. A graph consists of a set of points.

each of which defines value on two or .three axes. Our discussion will
limit itself to two dimensional graphs. The horizontal scale is usually
called the X-axis (or abscissa) and the vertical scale, the Y-axis (or
ordinate). Independent variables are plotted along the X-axis-the
reason for our labelling the column- for the independent variables in
the frequency table "X". The Y -'axis contains the corresponding
frequencies for the various categories of the dependent variables as
they appear in the data set. Figure 23 illustrates the basic
characteristics of a graph.

The following points should be kept in mind when preparing a graph:

(1) Make sure your graph has a title explaining its nature.

(2) Calibrate your scales accurately.

(3) Clearly identify units of measure along each axis.

(4) The X-axis should be 25% longer than the Y-axis. The
vertical axis should be laid out so the height of the
point representing the largest frequency is three-
quarten the length of the horizontal aXIS.

(5) All scales begin with zero.

There are four basic grap~s of use in crime analysis: the bar graph.
the histogram, the frequency polygon, and the bivariate graph.

Assume that the following numbers are the ages of the last 100 men
arrested for burglary in your city:

188
~~-------------

ORDINATE V

-ca
CD

.-.as.
.Q

>
-c
CD
"0
C

•
CD
Q.
CD
Q

o~-----------------------------------x
Independent Variable ABSCISSA
ORIGIN

Basic Charlet,rlstles of I Grlph

Figure 23

189
20 1S 22 23 25 26 23 30 31 26
31 IS 20 38 27 21 19 35 18 21
21 22 24 24 19 36 33 23 20 33
24 17 21 20 19 27 24 36 21 25
22 39 22 26 27 21 23 23 21 24
30 16 21 28 27 22 29 19 39 17
32 21 18 28 15 33 24 25 22 22
21 27 30 15 21 18 22 24 18 23
31 29 20 18 22 17 22 19 15 18
18 42 24 26 16 22 18 33 28 25
Arrange these data as a frequency table (using grouped data):

Age Group Frequency Percentage

X f %

15-17 10 10 (10/100) X 100 = 10

18-20 18 18 (18/100) X 100 = 18
21-23 28 28 etc.
24-26 16 16
27-29 10 10
30-32 7 7
33-35 5 5
36-38 3 3
39-41 2 2
42-44 1 1
100 Column Total
The Bar Graph: The bar graph makes data comparisons by the use
of parallel bars placed either venically or horizontally on the graph.
In the construction of a bar graph, the length of the bars is kept
proportional to the dependent variable. The width of the bars and the
space between them should be consistent. Figure 24 provides an
example.

Bar graphs are most often used when the dependent variable is
discrete. A discrete variable can only take on a finite number of
values, usually whole numbers. For example, the roll of a pair of dice
can only result in one of eleven discrete values: 2, 3, 4, S. 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
11, and 12. There are no other values that the pair of dice can have.
Therefore, if we were to construct a bar graph depicting the number of
ways that each value of a pair of dice could be made. a bar at each of

1
35

30

25
F
R
e 20
Q
U
e
N 15
C

•
Y
10

o
15·17 18·20 21·23 24·28 27·28 30·32 33·35 36·38 39·41 42·44
Age (years)

Bar Chart: Age of 100 Arrest...

Figure 24

190A
the eleven discrete values would be drawn but no other data would
appear on the graph. In crime analysis, such discrete variables may
include numbers of a specific crime, .year-to-year or month-to-month
figures, numbers arrested, patrol units deployed, etc.

The Histogram: The histogram is a special case of the vertical bar

graph and is used to represent the information contained in frequency
distributions of grouped data. It consists of a series of contiguous (no
space between) columns whose heights are proportional to group
frequencies, and whose widths are proportional to the size of the
interval of the variable. A histogram is not only a graphic record of
absolute class frequencies, but a mirror of the size of each frequency
relative to all others.

A histogram is used when the independent variable can have any

value from the lowest to the highest value represented in the data.
Suppose we wanted to graph calls-for-service over a 24-hour period,
something all analysts do for patrol workload studies. We could divide
our X~axis into 24 one-hour segments (the first running from 0000 to
0059, the second from 0100 to 0159, etc.) or 12 two-hour segments or
8 three-hour segments or whatever grouping we prefer. Once the size
of the segment has been selected, we simply plot (in the form of a bar
graph) the frequency of calls-for-service reported during each time
segment. Time is perceived as a continuum and there are no breaks.
Data that crime analysts might be requested to illustrate as a
histogram could be the number of burglaries arranged by the reported
dollar value of goods stolen, the number arrested arranged by age, or
the number of vehicles traveling at various speeds on a particular
thoroughfare.

An example of a frequency table plotted In the form of a histogram IS

shown in Figure 25.

Frequency Polygon: Often, we wish to illustrate the continuous

nature of our data and would like to illustrate differences in
frequencies from interval to interval as they occur. We could do this
by placing a point at the center of the top of each bar in Figure 24 and
connecting these points with straight lines.' The resultant figure is a
frequency polygon, and for our data looks like Figure 26.

In a frequency polygon, the points reflect interval frequencies, and are

plotted at interval midpoints. In the table on page 185, the interval

191
\

Histogram: Age of 100 Arrestees

30 ...
25 . ~

F -
R 20
e
Q
U
e 15 • l-

•
N
C
Y
10
I .
5 l- I
I
\
\
o • •
• • .
I
. .
l

15-17 18·20 21·23 24·26 27·29 30-32 33·35 36-38 39-41 42·44
Age In years (Nominal)

Age In years (actual)

Figure 25

192
30

25

F 20
R
E
Q
u 15
E
N
C
Y 10

o +-____~--~----~----+_--~~--_+----~----~--~----~
16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43
Age (years)

Frequency Polygon: Age of 100 Arrestees

Figure 26

193
27-29 had 10 cases in it. The point would be placed opposite 10 on
the vertical scale and at the midpoint of the interval 27-29.

We frequently graph data derived from a sample of people; the

sample is supposedly typical of the population from which the sample
was drawn. Assume that the population of all criminals is similar to
the sample of criminals that we have apprehended. Based on this
sample, conclusions regarding the criminal population as a whole
(which, of course, includes those still at-large) may be drawn. If a
school system wished to structure an in-jail remedial educational
program for juvenile delinquents and, based on its sample of
delinquents, extend the program to the overall educational system,
basic data for the design of such a program would include the
distribution of some type of reading scores. Assume, however, that we
have scores on only 100 of these juveniles, those in the sheriffs
custody. If we put these data into' a frequency polygon (like Figure
26), we would probably see irregular peaks in the graph because our
sample does not adequately represent the entire population. Such
irregularity might diminish if we were to graph data representative of

•
the entire population .

There is a very simple technique for smoothing frequency polygons;

we do a kind of "averaging" among adjacent intervals. The smoothed
frequency for a given interval is the average of the frequencies of that
interval and the intervals on each side of the one being considered.

From the table on page 185, let us determine the smoothed frequency
for the interval 27-29. We work with -the frequency of that interval,
10, and the frequencles of the interval below it (24-26) and the one
above it (30-32), These frequencies are 16 and 7, respectively. The
sum of these three frequencies (10+16+7=33), divided by three
intervals, results in a "smoothed" frequency of 11 (note: 33/3= 11) for
the interval 27-29. When this procedure is repeated for all intervals.
the smoothed frequencies can be graphed.

Analysts new to this procedure may be uncertain about handling the

first (15-17) and last (42-44) intervals in a distribution, becau;;e the
first interval contains no frequency below it, and the last interval no
frequency above it. The interval below the first one in which we
actually have a frequency simply has no cases in it. Its frequency is
zero, as is the frequency of the interval above our highest interval in
which there are no cases. Therefore, in smoothing our first interval
containing a frequency (15-17), we start with the frequency for that

194
interval (10), add to it the frequencies in the intervals above and
below, 0 and 18, respectively, and divide by three. The smoothed
frequency for interval 15-17 is 9.33 (10+0+18=28/3=9.33).

Now, how do we handle interval 12-14, the one just below our first
frequencies? Again, the intervals 12-14 and 9-11 are certainly real,
even though they contain no frequencies. Interval 12-14 is zero, as is
the interval below. The interval above (15-17), however, contains 10
cases. We add 0, 0, and 10, divide by three, and compute a smoothed
frequency for interval 12-14 of 3.33. Similarly, the smoothed
frequency for interval 9-11 is zero.

Smoothed frequency polygons must begin and end at zero. To get to

zero, we had to go down to the 9·11 interval even though our collected
data began with the 15-17 interval. Following the same process at the
upper end t we had to continue past 9lJr collected data interval of 42-
44 to the 48-50 interval before we arrived at zero. The smoothing
process stopped when we reached consistent interval values (zero) at
both ends of our frequency polygon as noted in column F (smoothed).
Smoothed, as well as actual. frequencies are presented below. The
smoothed frequency polygon is illustrated in Figure 27.

x f F
(actual) (smoothed)

9-11 0 0.00
12 -14 0 3.33
15-17 10 9.33
18 -20 18 18.67
21-23 28 20.67
24·26 16 18.00
27·29 10 11.00
30-32 7 7.33
33·35 5 5.00
36-38 3 3.33
39-41 2 2.00
42-44 1 1.00
45·47 0 0.33
48-50 0 0.00

Bivariate Graph: Sometimes we wish to show the relationship

between two conditions we have observed. For example, how does the
number of community service officers affect available beat time?

195
30

F 20
R
E
Q
U

• E
N
C
Y
10

o .---~ __ __ __ __ __
~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ __ __+-__
~ ~ __~__~__~__~
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
Age (years)

Smoothed frequency polygon: Age of 100 Arrest ••,

Figure 27

196
What is the impact of changes in the enforcement of codes regarding
narcotic usage on reported burglaries? When two 'Variables are
plotted together, the result is a bivariate graph. For this type of graph
two measurements are required for each item observed. One variable
is scaled along the horizontal axis, the other along the vertical axis. A
point is placed on the graph where a given ordinate (vertical) value
intersects its associated abscissa (horizontal) value, and this point is
known as the coordinate. Later in this book we will discuss techniques
for relating coordinates on bivariate graphs to establish patterns and
predictions. Consider the following values for X and Y:

Coordinate X Y

A 1.0 12.5
B 1.5 13.0
C 2.0 17.5
D 2.5 17.0

A bivariate graph of these four coordinates is illustrated in Figure 28.

A comment regarding Figure 28 is in order. Note that the vertical axis
begins with a zero value, is broken, and then followed by 12.0. This is
often done where the first value in a series is considerably distant
from the origin (zero). This better illustrates the relationship between
actual values and is a good graphing practice.

One variant of the bivariate graph is the "pin map", commonly used in
law enforcement to illustrate types and times of crimes by location.
Locations of crimes are plotted on a street map by placing a marker at
the point on the map which represents the street address. Assume
that a type of crime (e.g., burglary) occurred at the following
addresses:

CRIME ADDRESS

A 123 Main St.

B 457 Elm St.
C 319 Pine St.
D 301 Elm Ave.
E 1604 1st S1.

Plotting these crimes on a pin map would give us a graph as shown in

Figure 29.

197
- - - - - - -----

18
oc
..

16

,14

0B
• 12

W-A
G
A

¥f0 1 1.5 2 2.5

X

Figure 28

"

198
-.
C/')
c:
-.
C/')
E
....
C/')
Q)
-.
C/')
.::t(.
'ffi iIi c: m
:E il: 0

5 th St.

e8
4 th St.

eD
ec 3 rd St.

2 nd St.

-A
1 st 51.
eE

• I
Pin Map

Figure 29

199
If we add a set of axes to our street map (as shown in Figure 30), our
crimes have new "addresses" expressed in terms of bivariate
coordinates:

CRTh1E X Y

A 11 1.82
B 21 4.95
C 32 3.81
D 21 3.55
E 32.5 l.41

By converting conventional addresses to bivariate addresses, we

facilitate the use of basic statistics to identify patterns, "hot spots", and
other useful relationships. These simple statistical procedures will be
presented in the next chapter.

Data Presentation: Substantive content, extensiveness of labels, and

volume and ordering of data all help determine the method of choice
for the display of quantitative material. The basic tools for presenting
data are the sentence, the table and the graphic. Whatever tool helps
you best understand data is the one you should use. Experiment! One
tool may work well for you in one case, and be an absolute dud in
another. There is no method that always helps you see "what's
happening", but there are some basic rules to follow when trying to
explain your work to someone else.

The conventional sentence prevents comparisons within data and is a

poor way to show more than two numbers. The linear flow of words,
folded at arbitrary points (decided not by content but by
happenstance of column width or paper size) offers less than one
effective dimension for organizing data. Instead of:

Nearly 53 percent of Group A

did something or other
compared to 46 percent of Group Band
slightly more than 57 percent of Group C

arrange the type to facilitate comparisons, as in this text-table:

Percen,tage differences in how

three groups did something or other:

200
Pin map converted to X-Y coorinates

5
• B

• 0
ec
3

2 • A

• E
1

x
o 10 20 30 40 50

Figure 30

201
Group A. 53%
Group B 46%
Group C 57%

There may be sequences better than alphabetical for ordering

information. If we order from low to high, for instance, we see
differences and ranges at the same time:

Group B 46%
Group A 53%
Group C 57%

Tables are the best way to show exact numerical values and are
preferred over graphics to describe small data sets. Further, a table is
usually better than a pie chart; the only worse design than one pie
chart is several pie charts. No viewer should be asked to corr:pare
quantities located in spatial disarray within and between pies! (Pie
charts are not covered in this book. We recommend that you avoid
using them).

• When sets of data are large, use graphs. Use bar charts and
histograms when illustrating tabular data, or when you want to
compare elements within a single data set. Use frequency polygons.
smoothed or unsmoothed, when you want to illustrate the distribution
of your data. Use bivariate graphs when you need to illustrate trends
or patterns.

202
CHAPTER 13
THE BASICS

I
THE BASICS

Crime analysts find it useful to summarize data that lead to numerical

results called "descriptive measures". The two most basic types of
'. descriptive measures-measures of central tendency (averages) and
measures of variability (dispersion)-will be discussed in detail in this
chapter of the book.

For the moment, think of a distribution simply as a set of numbers. For

the ages of 100 individuals who have been arrested, we have 100 numbers
to be summarized or described by a single number that will indicate the
"center" of these numbers.

The most common "center" is the ordinary average. This center is the
arithmetic mean or, simply, the mean. The arithmetic mean is called "a"
measure, rather than "the" measure because there can be other points of
view on what is the "true" center. For each point of view, there is a
different way to compute the center. The three most commonly used
"center" calculations are explained below. Guidelines as to which one to
use under what conditions are discussed .

• THE MEAN:

The mean is the best known and most commonly used measure of central
tendency. The mean is computed by summing up all the values in the data
set and dividing by the number of those values. The rule for computing
the mean can also be stated as follows:

MEAN = sum of all the data items/number of data items

Suppose you had the following data items and wanted to compute the
arithmetic mean: 87, 76, 94, 105 and 79. The sum of these numbers is
441. The number of data items is 5. Applying our procedure for
computing the mean, we get:

~AN = 441/5 = 88.2

THE MEDIAN:

Sometimes the mean yields a value which COm1110n sense tells us we

cannot accept as meaningful. If 51 burglaries have occurred and the first
50 of them reported a loss of $100 but the remaining one claimed a loss of
$100,000, the total loss is obviously $105,000, and the mean is $2,059.

204
This is the true arithmetic mean ("average"), yet most would not accepL
$2,059 as the meaningful center of the set of data. In this case, it is more
meaningful to examine the middle ~.alue (or median ") of the data set.
II

The median is obtained by rearranging the data in order by size from low
numbers to high numbers and selecting the term in the middle. In our
example of burglary losses, the middle tenn is 26th in the list of 51 and its
size is, of course, $100.

When you have an odd number of data items, the median is the middle
value of a rearranged data set. For example, assume you have an odd
number of data elements as follows:

88, 89, 97, 92, 86.

Rearrange the data into numerical order from low to high as shown below:

86, 88, 89, 92, 97.

The median is the middle data item, 89. Eighty-nine is the middle data
item since there are the same number of data elements below it as above
it (two on each side).

When you have an even number of data items, there is no middle item.
Thus, the median must be determined by calculating the mean of the two
items nearest the middle. For example, assume you have the following set
of six values (six is an even number):

12, 8, 15, 10, 13, 9

Rearrange these data into numerical order as shown below:

8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15

Determine the two items nearest the center (10 and 12). We know that 10
and 12 are nearest the center because there is an equal number of
numbers below the lowest value (10) as above the highest value (12). Two
numbers are below 10 and two numbers are above 12. Thus, 10 and 12
are indeed the two values nearest the middle. The median value for this
set of data is calculated as follows:

(10 + 12)/2 = 11.

205
THE MODE:

The mode (mode = popular) in a data set is the most frequently occurring
item. If there are three 68's, four 70's, six 75's and one each of other
values in a listing of various values, 75 is the mode of that distribution. If
there were four 68's, four 70's, and three 75's, then the distribution would
have two modes-68 and 70-and would be called bimodal. A distribution
may have one or more modes. A distribution could also be comprised of
data elements in which no value appears more than once and, in that case,
the distribution would have no mode (no mode not a mode of 0). A mode
1

of zero i~plies that the most frequent value in the distribution is zero.

Which Averaae To Use:

Because the location of the mean is ~ependent upon the position of each
observation in the distribution, the "mean" average is the best of the three
to use except when the data are obviously skewed.

If the following data represent the time (in minutes) of patrol's responses

•
to a single type of call-for-service:

6 4 9 4 6
10 7 8 5 7
7 7 7 7 6
5 6 6 9 8
7 8 7 8 6

We could quickly rearrange these data as:

x = a single call-for-service

x
x
x x
x x
x x x
x x x
x x x x x x
x x x x x x x

I I I I I I I
4 5 6 7 9 8 10
Response time (in minutes)

206
and readily see that the data are pretty well balanced, and their
distribution is somewhat bell-shaped.

On the other hand, if we have the following response times:

8 5 10 8 9
6 8 9 9 10
8 7 4 7 8
10 8 9 6 7
7 9 8 10 9
which, rearranged, look like this;

x = a single call for service

.
x
x x
x x
x x x x
x x x x
x x x x x
x x x x x x x
I I I I I I I
J
4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Response times (in minutes)

our data are concentrated around the higher values. This data set 15
"skewed to the right".

We could also have data that are "skewed to the left" and data with two
modes, etc. Nothing beats a picture for allowing you to see how to best
describe your data.

Values deviating widely in one direction from the center of the

distribution tend to "pull" the mean toward them. This is not true of the
median, however (even in markedly skewed distributions), and the
median may be more nearly central to the bulk of the data than is the
mean. The following extreme situation has a mean of 7, entirely out of
range of the majority of the data. The median 5, however, is centrally
located;

2fJ7
2, 3, 3, 4, S, 6, 6, 6, 28

Because the median i~ not influenced by widely deviating values, it is

preferable for describing a typical data point when the distribution
contains a few elements whose values deviate widely from the rest. The
mode, like the median, is also insensitive to widely deviating values; its
instability, however, makes it the last choice, even in markedly skewed
data.

[n summary: Use the "mean" average when the data are symmetrically
distributed, and use the median when the data are skewed. Don't use the
mode to summarize data distributiolns ...

A Note About "DrQPpina" Hiahs And Lows:

High and low values are as real as other values. Dropping them cannot be
justified unless a clear and IQgically precise explanatiQn is Qffered. To
simply ignQre certain values leads to difficulties, both objective or
subjective in nature:

• (1) The resulting analysis may not be representative of the actual

situation. The analyst could be accused of selecting data Qn the
basis of a desirable result. In accounting terms, the analyst
could be accused of "cooking the books".
(2) By eliminating "highs" and "lows", the analyst may eliminate his
or her opportunity to identify possible causes for these values
and unintentionally (or worse) inhibit "improving things".
MEASURES OF VARIABILITY:

The mean, median and mode tell us only part of what we need to know
about the characteristics of data. To understand mQre, the analyst must
also determine variability (the spread or dispersion of the data), Three
measures have been found most useful: the range, the mean average
deviation, and the standard deviation.

As indicated in Chapter 11, the simplest-and most readily calculated-way

to establish the amount of dispersion in a data set is to determine the
difference between the lowest and highest values in the data set and add 1
to the result. This measure is known as the "range". It is computed by
subtracting the lowest value from the highest value. For the following
data:
99, SO, 63, 87, 82, 66, 54, 32, 56, 75

the range is (99 - 32) + 1 or 68. Though simple to compute, the "range" of
a data set gives little in the way of understanding to the data since only
two data points are considered.

Mean Averaie Deviation:

Another measure of dispersion, which considers all the data, is the mean
average deviation. To calculate mean deviation, we first calculate the
mean average. Then we find the difference between each individual piece
of data and the mean average of the data.

For the following data:

11, 8, 6, 7, 8

to compute the mean average, we sum these data (for a total of 40) and
divide by the number of data elements (in this case, 5). The mean average
e
for this simple data set is S.

Now, in order to get the mean difference, we calculate the difference

between each data element and the mean average of all the data. For this
calculation, all differences are treated as positive numbers. The results of
these subtractions are:

11-S=3
8-8=0
6 -8=2
7 - 8 :: 1
8-8::0

The mean deviation is the sum of all differences (3+0+2+1+0 = 6) divided

by the number of calculated differences (5 in this case). The mean
deviation is 6/5, or 1.2.

What do these calculations tell us? Two things: the data center around the
value 8 and the average dispersion of the data is 1.2 units to the left, and
1.2 units to the right of that center value.
Standard Deyiation:

Measures discussed so far are used because they are easy to calculate and
understand. They are of little use, however, to the crime analyst asked [0
address problems impacting upon an agency's resources. The most
important measure of dispersion, in these cases, is the "standard
deviation". The standard deviation is the most informative of all
calculations of dispersion.

To calculate the standard deviation in a !Zet of data:

( 1) Calculate the mean average ...

(2) Calculate the difference of each data point from the

mean average.
•
(3) Square each of the differences calculated in Step 2.
(The square of a number is found by multiplying it
by itself. The square of 4 is 4 x 4 16).=

•
(4) Sum the squares calculated in Step 3.

(5) Divide the sum of the squares calculated in Step 4 by the

number of data elements. The result from this division is the
"variance".

(6) Find the square root of the variance to obtain the standard
deviation. (The square root of a number is a number that,
when multiplied by itself, results in that number. The square
root of +36 is 6. When you multiply 6 by itself [6 x 6]. the
result is +36. Remember that -6 is also a valid square root of
+36. When you multiply -6 by -6, the result is also +36
[multiplying two negative numbers results in a positive
number]. Thus r all numbers actually have two square roots-a
positive root anci a negative root).

For example, if ~~ur data are

11, 8, 6, 7, 8
(1) The mean average is 8: (11+8+6+ 7+8 = 40, an.d 40/5 = 8).
(2) The differences between the mean average and each data
element in this set (ignoring signs) are: 3, 0, 2, 1. 0.

210
~-~--------------------~~--

(3) The squares of these differenc~s are: 9, 0, 4, 1, O.

(4) The sum of these squares, 9 + 0 + 4 + 1 + 0 = 14.

(5) Dividing the sum of these squares by the number of data

elements, 14/5, gives us the variance, 2.8, in this example.

(6) The standard deviation of the example data set is the square
root of 2.8, a plus or minus 1.67.

The standard deviation is a measure of the scattering of data from its

mean average. To see how it functions.in this respect, first note that if the
standard deviation was zero, then all the deviations must be zero and thus.
all the data ar.e clustered at one point. If all the data are clustered close [0
the mean, then the sum described in Step (4) above is small, which results
in a standard deviation near, but not equal to, zero. As the data becomes
more spread out, the standard deviation, will increase in size.

While there are formulas that use the standard deviation to make
predictions, they must, by necessity, be quite conservative since they
cover every conceivable type of data distribution. For distributions having
a bell-shaped appearance, the following empirical results more nearly
reflect what is encountered.

EMPIRICAL PREDICTIONS

The interval of +/- one standard deviation from the mean will contain
about 68% of the data.

The interval of +/- two standard deviations from the mean will contain
about 95% of the data.

The interval of +/- three standard deviations from the mean will contain
about 99.7% of the data.

Alternatively, we can say that about 68% of the data are within one
standard deviation of the mean, about 95% within two standard deviations
of the mean, and virtually all are within three standard deviations of the
mean. See Figure 31.

Of what use is the standard deviation to crime analysts? Primarily, it can

be of great assistance when we want to predict the likely QGcurrence of
events. Any data distribution which is symmetrical about its mean
211
• -3
2,28~

-2
13.59~

-1
34.13~ 34.13~

+1
13.59
+2
2.28~

+3
X
I , + + +
~ N ~ N . t.H

..-.
(J)
..-
(J)
-•
(J)
•::J
-&...
(J)

-.....,
(J)
..&.-
(J)

.,,.~
~ ~
a. &. &.
.,
a. a.
., i'
a ., Q,
..,
at
Q.

*
Q,
0
i< 'i i_. i' 0

- -. --...
~ c.
:s.
--.
:5.
at
0
~
at
::::
0
~
0
~
<
at
::
0
~
:5.
0
:;,
-
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at

0
:::I

Figure 31
Bell Curve wtth Stenderd Deytetton
111 ustreted

212
average (like a bell .. shaped curve) is unimodal. That is, it has one hump in
the center when the data are plotted as a histogram. These types of data
have some unique characteristics that lend themselves to the forecasting
function. For example, there is little error in assuming that two-thirds
(actually 68 percent) of the data are distributed within one standard
deviation of the mean. In addition, 95% of the data are distributed within
two standard deviations of the mean, and almost all of the data (99.7%) lay
within three standard deviations of the mean. This is a rough rule, of
course, but it has been found to work very well.

The standard deviation is a powerful tool for crime analysts and can be
used in a variety of ways. For example, assume a neighborhood is being
victimized by a burglar-rapist. After interviewing victims, we find that
the mean average time of the crime is 0300 and that the mean average
time has a standard deviation of +/- 1 hour. Two standard deviations from
the mean are +/.. 2 hours. Three standard deviations from the mean are
+/- 3 hours.
We would conclude that 68% of the crimes that have been committed and
are yet to be attempted by this criminal-if his current pattern continues-
will occur between 0200 and 0400 hours, one standard deviation from the tit
melln. (Remember, the mean is 0300. Thus, calculating +/- 1 hour from
the mean gives us the range of 0200 to 0400). Ninety-five percent of
these crimes (two standard deviations from the mean or 2 hours) are
distributed between 0100 and 0500 hours, and virtually all of these
crimes are distributed between 2400 and 0600 hours (three standard
deviations from the mean or 3 hours). Armed with this information, a
department's patrol commander wou{d be in a position to order a cost-
effective deployment of agency resources in an effort to apprehend this
perpetrator.

SEASONAL AVERAGING:

Many human activities vary with time of year. Traffic accidents near a
beach are more frequent during the warm summer months than during
cold winter months. In jurisdictions where snow marks the winter season,
response times to calls-for-service tend to be longer than during non-
winter months. Some crimes increa~e with the advent of the
Thanksgiving~Christmas holidays, particularly shop lifting and theft from
vehicles. Although these observations may seem obvious to law
enforcement professionals, it may be important to demonstrate a surge in ..
a particular crime during a season to a non-professional, or to demonstrate ,.,
that a crime is occurring at a higher or lower rate than expected.

213
It is imponant for crime analysts to be able to compute seasonal averages
so that management is able to plan for seasonal changes. It is also
import~nt for law enforcement professionals to be made aware of the
season just past. Was a specific crime committed with a frequency that
fell within the expected range of values (a threshold). or was its frequency
unusually high or low?

Two methods for computing seasonal average are presented. The first is
the easier of the two. but its results are not as accurate as other methods.
The second method is presented in Chapter IS of this book. Both methods
are exemplified by three years of data-three years are necessary for
seasonal averaging. If you have more data, fine. If you have fewer,
advise those who will be utilizing your results to use them with caution.

S~aso!1al Avera~iD~ (MethQd U;.

The following table represents gallons of gasoline (in thousands) hijacked

monthly over the past three years:

•
YEAR 1 ¥EAR 2 YEAR 3

JAN 40 60 50
FEB 42 62 73
MAR 53 64 71
APR 82 60 78
MAY 74 71 81
JUN 82 84 100
JUL 100 103 120
AUG 122 125 141
SEP 115 124 118
OCT 92 110 103
NOV 76 94 90
IE 126 123 137

Step 1: Determine the mean average for each month.

January mean =
(40+60+50)/3 = 50
February mean =(42+62+73)/3 = 59, etc.

Step 2: Calculate a season adjustment factor (SAF) by dividing

the most current information by thl: mean for that month
over the past three years. If 58,000 gallons of gasoline

214
were hijacked during January of YEAR 4, the seasonal
adjustment factor would be:

58 (the most current data)/50 (the 3 year mean for Jan.) = 1.16

The figure 1.16 means that, in the current year, the

amount of gasoline stolen was 1.16 times that of previous
years. Sixteen percent more gasoline was hijacked during
January of YEAR 4 than was hijacked in the "average"
January of the previous three years.

Step 3: If this trend were to continue throughout YEAR 4, the

analyst could calculate the number of hijacked gallons
expected for the remainder of YEAR 4:

For February: • 59.0 x 1.16 = 68.4

For March: ·62.7 x 1.16 = 72.7
For April: 73.3 x 1.16 = 85.0, etc.

Putting our work in tabular form,

MONTIlLY
YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR l MEAN SAF ESTIMATE
JAN 40 60 50 50.0 1.16 58 (*)
FEB 42 62 73 59.0 68.4
MAR 53 64 71 62.7 72.7
APR 82 69 78 73.3 85.0
MAY 74 71 81 75.3 87.3
JUN 82 84 100 88.7 102.9
JUL 100 103 120 107.7 124.9
AUG 122 125 141 129.3 150.0
SEP 115 124 118 119.0 138.0
ocr . 92 110 103 101.7 118.0
NOV 76 94 90 86.7 100,6
J::B: 126 123 137 126.7 147.0

(*) Actual

One reasonable question the analyst might pose is: What if the actual
amount hijacked in February does not agree with the calculated estimate?
(It probably won't),

215
~~~ -----

The answer: Adjust the calculations using February's actual amount as the
basis for computing a new Seasonal Adjustment Factor (SAF). Then,
recompute the new estimates for March through January, with January's
estimate being for YEAR 5.

MOVING AVERAGES:

Moving averages provide the most insightful way to determine whether

crime is increasing or decreasing, or whether long-term programs or long-
term operational changes are having the desired effect. Moving averages
are designed to smooth variations over time intervals and to highlight
trends. If one were to plot most crimes as a function of time on a
frequency chart, most graphs would appear to be saw toothed-up one
month, down the next. A police agency cannot resl'ond to peaks and
valleys; its deployment must be based on trends. When the trend is up
(by beat, time interval, or specific day), resources should be assigned to
"hot spots" to prevent crime from crossing a threshold. If the data indicate
that the "hot spot" has cooled and will not cross the threshold for some
time, resources can be moved to other areas, other shifts, or other
assignments. Remember: the key t.o ~omputing an effective moving

• average is the time interval. The longer the time interval, the less
influence exerted by any particular time period within the interval. The
best way to choose a prudent time interval is to examine your agency's
recent data, and experiment with it.

There are three basic moving averages: simple, weighted, and exponential.
All can be used for any time interval; the choice is up to the analyst. The
authors, however, have found the most practical minimum time interval to
be one year. Moving averages smooth variation within the time interval
of the average, and emphasize variation for time intervals greater than
the average. For example, a four quarter moving average would smooth
seasonal variation and concentrate on year long (or longer) trends.

Simple Moyina Averaie:

The simple moving average does not require intricate calculations and
does not recognize that the most recent data may have more meaning than
less recent data. Table I creates a five-week simple moving average for a
hypothetical set of data. The first five weeks are required as an
initialization period, and the moving average should be interpreted from
the sixth week on. Calculation of the average for each week requires
summing the five most recent weekly data points and dividing that sum
by five. All the data are given equal weight and all the data determine

216
the level of the average. The data added and deleted each week affect the
moving aver;\ge, causing week-to-week variations.

Assume that the data given in the column titled "end of week data" is the
number of robberies reported for the week listed in the column titled
"week". If the data given in the first two columns were plotted, we would
get a classic "saw tooth" and not see the long-term trend in robberies. The
data in the column titled "moving average" gives us the average week over
a five week span (starting in the sixth week). Note that beginning with
week 6, the data from week 1 is dropped and the pattern of "dropping
weeks" continues to the end of the data set (Le., in week 7, the data from
week 2 is dropped; in week 8, the data from week 3 is dropped, etc.). If
we were to plot the moving average by week, our curve would be
considerably smoothed and we would see that the trend in robberies is up.

Table I
Simple Five-Week Moving Average

End of Moving
Week Week Data Calculation AVi·

1 20 20/1 20.00
2 21 20+21/2 20.50
3 21 20+21+21/3 20.66
4 20 20+ 21 +21 +20/4 20.50
5 22 20+21+21+20+22/5 20.80
6 22 21+21+20+22+22/5 21.20
7 21 21+20+22+22+21/5 21.20
8 23 20+22+22+21+23/5 21.60
'9 24 22+22+21 +23+24/5 22.40
10 24 22+21+23+24+24/5 22.80
11 25 21+23+24+24+25/5 23.40
12 27 23+24+24+25+27/5 24.60
13 24 24+24+25+27+24/5 24.80
14 23 24+25+27 +24+23/5 24.60
15 25 25+27+24+23+25/5 24.80

)v~iiht~g M~2Vini Av~r~K~;

The weighted moving average allows flexibility in determining what

relative contribution each data point will make to the value of the average.
Table II provides another example of a moving average calculation, using
the same data as Table I. This example assigns heavier weights to the

217
most recent data; however, any weighting system is possible. When there
are sharp movements in recent data, the weighted moving average may
differ significantly from the simple moving average.

The concept behind the we:ighted moving average is that current data is
more significant than past data. To reflect this significance, various
multipliers are used. Let's look at week 2 in Table II below. The data at
the end of the second week (21) are more important than the data at the
end of the first week (20). To reflect this difference, we multiply the data
at the end of the second week by two, thus making this datum twice as
important than the first. Multiplying it by two, however, creates the effect
of two second weeks. Since we are also averaging in one first week, we
have the' mathematical equiv4ilent o.f three weeks, hence the division by
three. The same concept is used for calculating the moving average at the
end of the third week. In this case, the third week is the most current
and, therefore, the most significant, followed by the second week and
finally the first week. This significanc'e is reflected in the multipliers (also
known as weights) and the division by six is due to the sum of the
mathematical equivalent of three third weeks, two second weeks and one
first week.

• This process continues until we reach the end of the sixth week. Since our
example deals with a five week moving average, data from the end of the
first week are dropped from further inclusion in our calculations (they are
six weeks old). The same "drop" of second week data is implemented
when we compute the moving average as of the end of the seventh week.

Table II
Weighted Five-Week Moving Average

End of Moving
Week Week Data Calculatjon AVK·

1 20 (20xl)/1 20.00
2 21 (20x l)+(21x2)/3 20.66
3 21 (20x 1)+(21 x2)+(21 x3 )/6 20.83
4 20 (20xl)+(21x2)+(21x3)+
(20x4)110 20.50
5 22 (20xl)+(21x2)+(21x3)+
(20x4)+(22x5)/15 21.00
6 22 (21xl)+(21x2)+(20x3)+
(22x4)+(22x5)/15 21.40
7 21 (21xl)+(20x2)+(22x3)+

218
(22x4)+(2Ix5)115 21.33
8 23 (20xl)+(22x2)+(22x3)+
(2Ix4)+(23x5)115 21.93
9 24 (22xl)+(22x2)+(2Ix3)+
(23x4)+(24x5)115 22.73
10 24 (22xl)+(2Ix2)+(23x3)+
(24x4)+(24x5)115 23.26
11 25 (2Ixl)+(23x2)+(24x3)+
(24x4)+(25+5)/15 24.00
12 27 (23xl)+(24x2)+(24x3)+
(25x4)+(27x5)/15 25.20
13 24 (24xl)+(24x2)+(25x3)+
(27x4)+(24x5)/15 25.00
14 23 (24xl)+(25x2)+(27x3)+
(24x4)+(23x5)/15 24.40
15 25 (25xl)+(27x2)+(24x3)+
(23x4)+(25x5)/15 24.53
EX12Qn~nIiaI MQvini Averaie:

The exponential moving average is the most sophisticated moving average,

requires less historical data than the other two techniques, and is the
easiest to calculate. This technique, recommended for most crime analysis
problems, automatically corrects for differences between past mOVing
averages and the actual data.

In the weighted moving average technique, we arbitrarily chose our

multipliers (see Table II). The exponential moving average requires us to
compute a very specific value, known as the "smoothing constant". The
smoothing constant varies from zero to one and is computed with the
following simple formula:
sc =2 I (T + I)
where T = time interval of the moving average
and SC = smoothing constant

For instance, for a five-week exponential moving average (T in our

formula), the smoothing constant would be:

SC = 2 I (5 + I) = 0.33
Table III presents an example of a five-week exponential moving average.
In order to start the exponential average, the moving average in week one
was assumed to be equal to the actual data at the end of week one. The
calculation for any subsequent week is straightforward. It is the

219
smoothing constant (0.33 in our example) times the end of week data, plus
ODe minus the smoothinl constant (1 • 0.33 = 0.67), times the previous
movins averale.

Table III
Exponential Five-Week Moving Average

End of Moving
Week Week Data Calculation Av&,

1 20 -------------- 20,00
2 21 (0.33 )(21 )+(0.67)(20.00) 20.33
3 21 (0.33 )(21 )+(0.67)(20.33) 20,55
4 20 (0.33 )(20)+(0.67)(20.55) 20,36
5 22 (0.33 )(22)+(0.67)(20.36) 20,90
6 22 (0,33 )(22)+(0.67)(20.90) 21.26
7 21 (0.33 )(21 )+(0.6:7)(21.26) 21.17
8 23 (0.33 )(23 )+(0.67)(21.17) 21. 77
9 24 (0.33 )(24 )+(0.67)(21. 77) 22.50
10 24 (0.33 )(24 )+(0.67)(22.50) 22.99
11 25 (0.33 )(25)+(0.67)(22.99) 23.65

• 12
13
14
15
27
24
23
25
(0.33 )(27)+(0.67)(23 .65)
(0,33 )(24 )+(0.67)(24.75)
(0.33 )(23 )+(0.67)(24.50)
(0,33 )(25)+(0.67)(24,00)
24.75
24.50
24,00
24,33

COMPARING DATA:

It is common for an agency to request a comparison of this year's total

burglaries with those of last year, this year's first quarter to[211 robberies
with those of last year's, or this month's auto accidents at a particular
intersection with those at another intersection for the same period. Two
data elements are needed for such comparisons: the data that are to be
compared, and the data with which they are to be compared. Let'S label
the former the "object" data and the latter the "reference" data, To make
comparisons, we simply solve the following equation:

(OBJECfDATA· REFERENCE DATA) I (REFERENCE DATA) X 100%

In 1985, Plainville had 487 residential burglaries. The year before. 1984.
they hafi 319, The Chief of Plainville's Police Department wants a
comparison of 1985's residential burglaries with 1984's. The Department's
crime analyst identified the object data to be 1985's total of 487 and [he

220
reference data to be:: 1984's total of 319. (The analyst must listen closely
to requests for comparison. If, for some obscure reason, it were requested
that 1984 be compared to 1985, the result would be quite different).
Having correctly identified the object data and the reference data,
Plainville's crime analyst simply "plugged" the values into the above
equation and got:

(487 - 319) I (319) x 100% = +53%

The 53% shows the amount of change in the number of residential

burglaries between the two years. The "+" sign indicates that the change
was an increase from 1984 to 1985. (The inclusion of the "+" sign
emphasizes the fact that a positive number indicates an increase; we tend
to ignore the "+" sign when values are positive). If we reverse the number
of total residential burglaries and give 1984's total as 487 and 1985's as
319, the answer to the chiefs request is:

(319 - 487) / (487) x 100% = -34%

These figures reflect a change of 34% from 1984 to 1985 and the "_" sign
indicates a decrease in the object data when compared to the reference
data. Remember that the key is accurate identification of the object data
and the reference data. The computation is straightfor:ward, giving both
the magnitude and direction of change.

RATES:

Although comparisons are easily calculated, results from comparisons may

not always be as informative as they might. Crimes must have targets:
there must be residences to have residential burglaries, there must be fast
food establishments to have "stop-and-rob" fast food rob~eries, there must
be children to have child abuse. Straight comparisons overlook this
apparent fact.

The utility of additional data is illustrated in the following example, in

which the year, number of residential burglaries and number of
residences are listed in tabular form:

# OF RESIDENTIAL #OF
YEAR BURGLARIES RESIDENCES

1987 4,127 14,739

1986 3,902 11,149

221
Comparing the number of residential burglaries in 1987 with the number
in 1986 gives us:

(4,127 - 3,902) / (3,902) x 100% = +6%

And comparing the number of residences that could have been burglarized
gives us:
(14,739 - 11,149) / (11,149) x 100% = +32%

Suppose we compute the number of burglaries per residence so that we

can compare our data on a common data base, burglary per residence. The
number of crimes, divided by the number of available targets, is known as
the crime rate. The residential burglary rate for 1986 in our example was:
3,902 burglaries/ll, 149 residences = 0.35 burglaries/res.

and in 1987 it was:

4,127 burglaries/14,739 residences = 0.28 burglaries/res.

If you compare the rate of residential burglaries in 1987 to that in 1986:

(0.28 - 0.35) I (0.35) x 100% = -20%

And it would appear that we have cc,ntradictory results. On the one hand.
the absolute number of residential burglaries increased 6% from 1986 to
1987. On the other hand, the rate of residential burglary (chance of any
individual residence being burglarized) decreased 20%. Which result to
give? Both! Your job as departmental crime analyst is to provide
completed work. Both answers are correct, and completed work demands
that you provide both numbers. Presentation and use of these values is
not the analyst's job.

Rate calculations and comparisons are important for deployment, crime

prevention programs, crime-specific undertakings, and community
problem solving. Thereff)re, a crime analyst should have readily available
a detailed description of the community's population (sex, age, race.
residential density, census data distribution throughout the community.
etc.), detailed maps of the community, and data describing all structures
within the community. Without these data, the analyst is working with
crime numbers alone and is not able to relate the crime to community
characteristics.

222
INDEXES:
~

In our previous example, we computed a crime rate of 0.28 burglaries per

residence for 1987. Most people think in terms of whole numbers when it
comes to crime, and analysts generally convert crime rates to values
comprised of whole numbers. This procedure is known as indexing.

If we have 0.28 burglaries per residence, we have twice as many

burglaries for twice the number of residences (0.28 X 2 = 0.56 per two
residences), three times as many burglaries for three times the number of
residences (0.28 X 3 = 0.84 per three residences), etc. How many
burglaries would we have for 100 residences?

0.28 X 100 = 28 burglaries per 100 residences

Note that we have not changed any relationship. All we have done is
change a rate (which is a measure per unit-in this case, 0.28) to an index
(which is a measure per chosen number of units-in this case, 100). You
may choose any multiplier; the index, however, must stipulate the --:hoice
(as shown in our example).

Now suppose you want to compare your agency's index of some crime with
that for the state. If your jurisdiction had 1.3 homicides per 1000
population and the state's index was 104.5 per 100,000 population, you
would convert both indices to a common homicide rate.

The procedure for indexing involves finding the smallest number which.
when used as a multiplier of both the numerator and the denominator,
wi'll produce a whole number in the numerator. Your community has a
homicide rate of 1.3/1000 (0.0013 homicides per person) and the state
reports a homicide rate of 104.5/100,000 (0.0010 homicides per person).
From a rate point of view, your jurisdiction has a greater homicide
problem than the state. Specifically, your community's rate compared to
the state's rate is:

(0.0013/0.0010) x 100% = 130%.

This means that your rate is 30% greater than the state's.

Put in another fonn, the state has:

(0.0010/0.0013) x 100% = 77%

223
of the community's rate of homicide, a rate 23% less than your
community's.

Most state and Federal crime statistics are based on 100,000. Using
100,000 for a community whose population is 15,000 does not help you
communicate to your constituents, however. Remember, keep the index as
small as possible in order to generate whole numbers in the numerator. It
is all right to have a decimal in the numerator (e.g., 4.8, 6.2. etc.). Just
keep in mind that an effective index contains whole numbers .

224
CHAPTER 14
ANAL YZING PA 1TERNS OF TIME

"
~ALYZING PAUERNS OF TIME

If a time pattern can be discerned for past crimes (in a series), then
criminals involved with that crime series may continue following the same
time pattern. Time patterns fall into two general categories: exact time
patterns. and time interval patterns. Exact time crimes are those in which
law enforcement is advised as to the exact time that a crime occurred.
Crimes such as rape or robbery are usually exact time crimes.

Burglary and auto the.ft are typical examples of time interval crimes. The
victim is unaware of his loss until sometime after the crime occurred. A
citizen parks his vehicle at 2300 hours and retires for the evening. At
0800 hours the next day, the citizen returns to his cat' and finds his stereo
radio stolen. The crime occurred sometime (time interval) between 2300
and 0800 hours. but the exact time of the theft is unknown.

The following section is largely based 011 a memorandum prepared by Dale

Brearcliffe, crime analyst for the Livermore (CA) Police Department. Mr.
Brearcliffe presents a number of techniques in an understandable format
and Messrs. Gottlieb and Arenberg, the authors of this book, prepared this

• section to reflect Mr. Brearcliffe's work.

EXACT TIME CRIMES· NOT AROUND MIDNIGHT:

The procedure for identifying the time pattern or exact time crimes that do
not wrap around midnight consists of the following steps:

( 1) Convert all times to their decimal equivalent.

(2) Calculate the arithmetic mean of these times.

(3) Calculate the standard deviation of these times.

(4) Subtract the standard deviation from the arithmetic mean, and
convert that time to the format of a 24-hour clock. Add the
standard deviation to the arithmetic mean, and convert that
time to the format of a 24-hour clock. These two times form
the boundaries of the time period in which 68% of the crimes
have occurred and are likely to occur.

(5) Subtract two times the standard deviation from the arithmetic
mean and convert the result to the format of a 24-hour clock.
Add two times the standard deviation to the arithmetic mean

226
and convert the result to the clock. These two values form the
boundaries of the time period in which 95% of the crimes have
occurred and are likely to occur.

Let's illustrate this process with a simple example. A series of armed

robberies has been committed by the same criminals at the following
times:
1330, 1415, 1100, 1200, 1300, 1545, 1630, 1000

Following Step (1) results in the following decimal equivalent hours:

13.50, !4.25, 1l.00, 12.00, 13.00, 15.75, 16.50, 10.00

(Note: To convert 1330 to its decimal equivalent, note that 1330 is

halfway between 1300 and 1400-henc~, 13.50. 1415 is a quarter of the
way between 1400 and 1500-hence, 14.25. To compute the decimal
equivalent of minutes after the hour, divide minutes by 60).

Following Step (2) requires calculation of the arithmetic mean which in this
case is 13.50 + 14.25 + 11.00 + 12.00 + 13.00 + 15.75 + 16.50 + 10.00 / 8 =

13.25 (the mean), which translates to 1315 hours

(Note: to convert a decimal equivalent to minutes, multiply the decimal

part of the time by 60. In our example, .25 X 60 is 15 minutes; hence.
13.25 hours con verts to 1315 hours.)

Following Step (3) requires computing the standard deviation as explained

in . Chapter 12. The standard deviation in our illustration is:

+/- 2.24 hours (or +/- 2 hours, 14 minutes)

Step (4) combines the result from Step (2) with one standard deviation
[calculated in Step (3)]. The result gives us the 68% probability period.
which is:
13.25 +/- 2.24 hours

which, when converted to the 24-hour clock, gives us:

1315 +/- 2 hours, 14 minutes =

1101 to 1529 hours

227
------------------

,e Step (5) results in the 95% probability period (two standard deviations),
which is:
13.25 +/- 4.48 hours (Note: 2.24 X 2 = 4.48)

which, when converted to the 24-hour clock, gives us:

13.15 +/- 4 hours, 29 minutes =

0846 to 1744 hours.

EXACT TIME CRIMES· AROUND MIDNIGHT:

We will define an around midnight series of crimes as a pattern of crimes

which occurred before and after 2400. In order for the arithmetic mean
and the standard deviation to make sense for such crimes, "conventionally"
reported times for crimes occurring after 2400 must be adjusted. This is
done by adding 2400 to the reported time of each "next day" crime.
Rather than simply stating this rule, let's look at why:

Assume that we are analyzing a series of crimes that have occurred at the
following times:

• 2300, 0100, 0200, 2200

When we convert these times to their decimal equivalents (as required In

Step 1), we get:
23.00~ 1.00, 2.00, 22.00

Step (2) calls for the arithmetic average which, in this case is:

(23+1+2+22)/4

which gives 12.00 or 1200 or HIGH NOON. An analyst would be hard

pressed to defend the notion that the best time to look for a criminal who
"capers" late at night 01" early in the morning is to search for him around
noon. What's gone wrong? And how do we, get around this minor
problem?

Create a continuum of time so that we can use our statistical tools. 0100 is
an hour after 2400 hours, so we convert 0100 to 2500 hours. If a crime in
our series occurred at 0230, we would 'first convert the time to its decimal
equivalent (2.50) and then convert it once more by adding 2400; the fully
converted time is 26.50.

228
Remember our original times:

2300~ 0100, 0200, 2200

Converting these times to their decimal equivalents:

23.00, 1.00, 2.00, 22.00

And, now, fully converting to our continuum, gives us:

23.00, 25.00, 26.00, 22.00

The arithmetic average of these converted times is 24.00, or 2400 hours,

or midnight.

Suppose you had a series of crimes that occurred at ~,he following times:

0300, 0130, 2340, 0500, 2115, 0445

Convert these times to their decimal equivalents:

3.00, 1.50, 23.66, 5.00, 21.25, 4.75

Now convert these times to create a continuum by adding 2400 hours to

each time (e.g. 2400 + 3.00 = 2700; 2400 + 1.50 = 25.50; etc.). This gives us
the following:
27.00, 25.50, 23.66, 29.00, 21.25, 28.75

The sum of the times represented in this final conversion is 155.16 which,
when divided by 6 (the number of data points), gives us the arithmetic
average of:
25.86

Once we have completed our calculations, we must convert to a more

conventional representation of time. We know that the portion of the
number given as 25 means one hour after 2400 hours, or 0100, or 1:00
a.m. The 0.86 part is the decimal equivalent of the number of minutes
after 1:00 a.m., (0.86 x 60) or 52 minutes. The time to present to the user
of your analysis is:

0152 hours or 1:52 A.M.

229
Finally, let's use our conversion together with the five basic steps for
determining the time spread of a crime series. The following series of
times represents the times of occurrence of seven crimes:

2330, 0117, 2400, 0230, 2345, 0100, 0130

When we convert these times to a continuum, we have:

2330, 2517, 2400, 2630, 2345, 2500, 2530

And, using these continuum-converted times, we proceed through the

steps outlined earlier (in the Not Around Midnight section).

Step (1): Convert all times to their decimal equivalent:

23.50, 25.28, 24.00, 26.S(}" 23.75, 25.00, 25.50

Step (2): Calculate the arithmetic mean:

• Step (3):
24.79 (2447 hours, or 0047 hours)

Calculate the standard deviation:

+/- 1.086 (or +/- 1 hour, 5 minutes)

Step (4): Calculate the 68% probability period:

23.70 to 25.88

which, when converted to conventional times, gives us:

2342 to 0153 hours

Step (5): Calculate the 95% probability period:

22.62 to 26.96

which, when converted to conventional times, gives us:

2237 to 0258 hours

230
TIME SPAN CRIMES:

Time span crimes are crimes in which the exact time of the crime is
unknown, but the time span during which the event occurred is known.
Examples of time span crimes are burglary and auto theft. In both types
of crime, the victim left a premise or a vehicle at a known time, returned
to it at a known time, and found that between leaving and returning (the
time span), a crime had been committed.

Studying time span crimes draws the analyst into that fuzzy world where
experience means as much as knowledge of analytical procedures. Three
methods for handling time spans will be discussed; the strengths and
weaknesses of each method will be presented. Before getting into methods
of time span crime analysis, however, it is essential that the reader
understand that each of the following techniques works when the time
span is no greater than 24 hours. For time spans exceeding 24 hours, no
method has yet been found that will provide a practical solution.

Time Span Crimes - Midpoint Analysis:

Midpoint analysis is based on the exact time analyses discussed earlier.

The midpoint between the earliest and latest time of the time span in
which the crime occurred is calculated. Midpoints are then treated as
exact times and 68% and 95% probabilities are applied, as in the exact time
procedures.

(1) Calculate the midpoint of each time span as follows:

(a) Convert initial and ending times to decimal equivalents.

(b) Subtract initial time from ending time, and divide by 2.

(c) Add the result of (b) to the initial time .

. (2) Treat resulting mid-points as though they were exact times

and follow the procedure outlined in Exact Time Crimes.

Assume that a series of .nine daytime residential burglaries occurred

during the time spans shown in the following table:

231
·e
Crime Report
Number Date Span Time Span

1 4/22 0900-1400
2 5/05 0845-1600
3 5/06 0800-1715
4 5/06 0745-1720
5 5/15 1130-1200
6 5/17 1400-1600
7 5/16-5/18 1200-0800
8 5/18 1245-1345
9 5/19 1345·1630

Let's compute a couple of midpoints. ~ Crime report II has a time span

bounded by 0900 (initial time) and. 1400 (end time). The decimal
equivalents of these times are 9.00 and 14.00, respectively, and the
difference between 9.00 and 14.00 is 5.00. 5.00 divided by 2 is 2.50.
Adding 2.50 to the initial time (9.00) places the midpoint for the crime at

• 11.50 (or 1130 hours) .

Crime report #2 shows an initial time of 0845 and an ending rime of 1600.
The respective decimal equivalents of these times are 8.75 ·and 16.00 and
the difference between them is 7.25. When 7.25 is divided by 2, we get
3.625 which, when added to the initial time (8.75), places the mid-point at
12.375 (or 1223 hours).

Finally, let's look at crime report 117. Here we see that the time span is
greater than 24 hours. We will ignore this crime report (as mentioned
earlier) and consider that we are dealing with 8-instead of 9--crimes in
the pattern.

When we have calculated all mid-points, our table looks like this:

~ DATESPAN TIME SPAN MIDPOINT DEC. EOUIV.

1 4/22 0900-1400 1130 11.500

2 5/05 0845-1600 1223 12.375
3 5/06 0800-1715 1238 12.625
4 5/06 0745-1720 1232 12.542
5 5/15 1130-1200 1175 11.750
6 5/17 1400-1600 1500 15.000
(DROPPED FROM CONSIDERATION BECAUSE TIME SPAN EXCEEDS 24 HOURS)

232
8 5/18 1245-1345 1325 13.250
9 5/19 1345-1630 1508 15.125

Using decimal equivalents as a basis for computation, we get:

Arithmetic mean:
13.02 (or 1301 hours)
Standard deviation:
+/- 1.369 (or 1 hour, 22 minutes)
68% period:
1139 to 1423 hours (13.02 +/- 1.369)
95% period:
1017 to 1546 hours {13.02 +1- 2.738)

The advantage of this method is that classical, standard statistical

techniques are used. The main disadvantage is the size of the potencial
error: 50%. With a standard deviation ,<?f +/- 2 to 3 hours, such an error is
acceptable; b,ut when the standard deviation starts approaching +/- 8 to 10
hours, 50% error is not acceptable. Guideline: this method should not be
used when standard deviations exceed +/- 4 hours.

Time Span Crimes - Equal Opportunity Method;

Each time span crime has a beginning and an ending time. The equal
opportunity method assigns one point (a value of 1) for each hour (or part
of an hour) defined by the time interval. The total number of points per
hour per day are then calculated; the grand total of all points is also
determined. Dividing the total of each hour by the grand total (and
multiplying by 100%) will result in the percentage (or probability) of each
hour that the series of crimes could have occurred.

The major advantagc~ of this technique is that it works well for a wide
range of time spans. Moreover, the technique produces an easily
interpreted graph. A crime that could only have occurred within one hour
is assigned i point to that hour while a crime that could have occurred
anytime within a 24-hour period will also be assigned 1 point during the
same hour.

Let's lay this process out in the following steps:

(1) For each crime, determine the hellfs in which the crime could
have occurred. A partial hour counts as a full hour. To each of
these hours, assign a point, a value of 1.

233
(2) Total the number of points that fall during each hour of the
day.

(3) Total all of the points for the 24-hour period.

(4) Determine the percentage of points falling during each hour.

Divide the total number in each hour by the total number for
the 24-hour period, multiply the result by 100%, and round the
final result to the ne'arest whole number.

(5) Plot the results of Step (4) as a bar graph. Plot these data with
hour of the day on the horizontal axis and percentage on the
vertical axis.

(6) Examine the bar graph. 'Identify the peale hour(s) and move
away from this hour along the graph in both directions,
totalling percentages as you go.

o( 7) The hours you select represent your time span. Related total

• percentages represent the cumulative probability that the

criminal is "capering" within that time span.

To illustrate this process, let's use the same data we used previously:

Step (1): Assign points.

0900 to 1400 • Assign 1 point each to 0900 (for 0900-0959), 1000 to

1059, 1100 to 1159, 1200 to 1259, and 1300 to 1359. (Remember.
this is 1300·1400; 1400 receives no points).

0845 to 1600 - Assign 1 point each to 0800 to 0859, 0900 to 0959.

1000 to 1059, 1100 to 1159, 1200 to 1259, 1300 to 1359, 1400 to
1459, and 1500 to 1559.

0800 to 1715 - Assign 1 point each to 0800 to 0859, 0900 to 0959,

etc.

Step (2): Total the points for each hour represented in the total span of all
reports:

0700-0759: 1
0800-0859: 3
0900-0959: 4

234
1000-1059: 4
1100-1159: 5
1200-1259 : 5
1300-1359: 6
1400-1459: 5
1500-1559: 5
1600-1659: 3
1700-1759: 2

. Step (3): Total points for the entire time period:

43 points

Step (4): Determine and round the percentage of the total represented by
each hour. That is, divide each of the ~points in Step (2) by 43 and round
the result as follows:

0700-0759: 2% (1/43) = .02 = 2%

0800-0859: = =
7% (3/43) .07 7%
0900-0959: 9% etc.
1000-1059: 9%
1100-1159: 12%
1200-1259: 12%
1300-1359: 14%
1400-1459: 12%
1500-1559: 12%
1600-1659: 7%
1700-1759: 5%

Step (5): Graph the results:

See Figure 32

Steps (6) and (7): Determine time spans and probability of occurrences.
This is done by selecting any two intervals and adding the percentages
between them. For example, there is a 62% probability that the crimes are
occurring from 1100 to 1600 hnurs. (Note the percentages listed above for
each hour between 1100 and 1600. When added together, we get 12% +
12% + 14% + 12% + 12% = 62%). Following the same process, we can
determine that there is a 27% probability that the crimes are occurring
between 0700 and 1100 hours.
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Tim~ Span Crimes .. Weiahted Method:

The weighted method assumes that each hour in the time interval has an
equal probability of being the hour during which the crime occurred. For
example, when the time span is 0100-0200, we know with certainty that
the crime took place during the one hour from 0100 to 0200, and assign
that hour a value of 1. When the time span is 0100-0400, the crime could
have occurred during any of the three one~hour periods defined by that
time-span: it could have occurred between 0100 and 0200, between 0200
and 0300, or between 0300 and 0400. Since the crime may have occurred
during any of the three one-hour periods defined, we assign a value of 1/3
to each of these periods. Once these values have be"n assigned for all
associated crimes in the series, total points for each hour of the day are
calculated, as is the grand total of points for the twenty-four hour period.
Percentages can then be calculated and graphed.
:,:

The weighted method works well for a wide range of time spans, and
allows the production of an easily interpretable graphic. In addition, the
method permits the analyst to estimate the probability of futun~
occurrences. One major drawback is that it amplifies the importance of
small time spans; an exact time receives a full value point for the hour of
the crime whereas the same hour will only receive 1/10th of a value point
in a 10 hour time span.

To illustrate the weighted procedure, let's return to the crime report data
we used earlier:

Step (1): Assign value points:

0900-1400 - There are five possible hours during which the crime
could have occurred. ~ssign 0.20 (l/5) value points to each hour;
0900 to 0959, 1000 to 1059, 1100 to 1159, 1200 to 1259, and 1300
'to 1359.

0845-1600 - There are 8 possible hours in this time span.

(Remember, part of an hour, 0845 to 0859 in this case is treated as a
whole hour). Assign a value point of 0.125 (1/8) each to 0800 to
0859, 0900 to 0959,·1000 to 1059, 1100 to 1159, 1200 to 1259,
1300 to 1359, and 1400 to 1459.

231
0800-1715 - Th~re are 10 possible hours in this time span. Assign
0.100 (1/10) each to 0800 to 0859, 0900 to 0959, and so on through
1600 to 1659.

Step (2): Total the points for each hour. (See Table A)
0700-0759: 0.090
0800-0859: 0.315
0900·0959: 0.515
1000·1059: 0.51.5
1100-1159: 1.515
1200-1259: 1.015
1300-1359:.. 1.265
1400-1459: 1.065
1500-1559: 1.065
1600-1659: 0.440
1700-1759: Q..190
7.990 Column Total

Step (3): Grand total of points for the rime period is 7.99 which. rounded.
is:

•
8 Points

(NOTE: Theoretically, the grand total win ways equal the number of cases
being analyzed. Since our total is 8 points and we are working with 8
cases-remember. one wa,s not considered-we know our calculation is
con:ect).

Step (4): Determine percentage of points by hour (round percentages):

0700-0759: 1% (0.09/8) = .011 = 1%

0800-0858: 4% (0.315/8) = .039 = 4%
0900-0959: 6% etc.
1000-1059: 6%
1100-1159: 19%
1200-1259: 13%
1300-1359: 16%
1400-1459: 13%
1500-1559: 13%
1600·1659: 6%
1700-1759: 2.!&
.99% Column Total (Does not total 100%
due to rounding).

238
· .

r
TABLE A "'
Probability that crime occurred during a particular hour segment

HOUIt
0700- 0800- 0900- 1000- 1100- 1200- 1300- 1400- 1500- 1600- 1700-
t~T 0759 0859 0959 1059 1159 1259 1359 1459 1559 1659 1759
C.R.
1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

2 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125

3 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

0.10
4 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0,09
5
1.0
6 0.5 0.5
7 NO r CON SIOERE 0: TIP. E SPJ! N EXI :EOS 24 HO ~RS
8 0.5 0.5
9 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

TOTALS: 0.09 0.315 0.515 0.515 1.515 1.015 1.285 1.0S5 1.065 0.44
-
0.19

'"

239
Step (5): Graph the results.

See Figure 33

Steps (6) and (7): Select any two intervals of your choice and determine
the time spans and their combined probabilities:

Example: 1100 to 1600, 74% probability

Example: 1400 to 1700, 32% probability

Note: Practically speaking, it is usually desirable to give patrol officers

the shortest time span with the highest probability. In this case, it would
be the time span between 1100 and 1600 since it has 74% of the crime.

MIXED DATA:

When exact-time crimes and time-span crimes are mixed, consider

employing one of the following:

• (1) If most crimes are of the exact time type, use midpoint
analysis for the time span crimes and integrate the values
derived from them with those of exact-time crimes.

(2) If most crimes are of the time .. span type, use either one of .
the bar graph methods.

(3) If you have approximately the same number of exact-time

crimes and time-span crimes, use the weighted analysis
method.

SOME THOUGHTS ON THE QUANTITY OF DATA:

Crime analysts are often interested in the quick detection of patterns, and
frequently only have data for a week or a month upon which to base
analyses. Data from a small number of crimes can produce highly variable
results; one or two unusual cases can radically change the distribution of
;.!lcidents over time.

How many incidents are necessary to avoid this problem? According to a

statistical rule of thumb, an analyst needs enough data so that he/she may
expect to see at least five cases in each category.

240
CJ)mG)> ..... zmO:Dm"1J
-4 ... -4 N
a N -'" m en

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~

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(J)

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0000-0059
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1
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0600-0659 I :D
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1200-1259 --
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1500-1559 ~t:;:'.HI: : ..J; ';{·L?,"l ,: ~:/;I)·: :./;:·1 I -
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1600 1659 .. ' ; . < . ' < .
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1800-1859 I I I I I I 3:
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1900- 1959
2000-2059
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2100-2159
2200-2259
2300-2359
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e e e
A minimum of 3S incidents is required to analyze the distribution of
crime over the seven days of a week (S incidents X 7 days = 3S incidents),
at least 60 incidents are required for time-of-day analyses (assuming 12
two-hour intervals per day X 5 incidents per interval = 60 incidents), and
at least 420 (60 incidents X 7 days) incidents are required to analyze time-
of-day distributions over all seven days in a week.

When there are too few incidents, a possible solution may be to reduce the
number of categories by combining two or more of the originai categories
into a single category. In a day-of-week analysis, for example. Friday and
Saturday could be combined into one category, and Tuesday and
Wednesday into another. This reduces the number of categories to five:
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday/Wednesday, Thursday and Friday/Saturday.
Then following the rule requiring 5 cases per category, the minimum of 35
cases for a sevenaday analysis would be reduced to 2S cases (S cases X 5
categories = 2S cases) for a "day" analysis. The analysis using fewer days
is less detailed and its subsequent conclusions more general. It would be
impossible to distinguish a crime occurring early Friday morning from one

,
occurring late Saturday night. If, however, all you have is a data set,
general conclusions are better than none. An analyst may be hard pressed
to defend the proposition that nothing can be done until the community
suffers more rapes or robberies. Remember that all analysis must be
accompanied by a statement of its limitations.

Deciding which categories to combine may be difficult. One general rule is

to combine categories of low frequency. For example, if most burglaries
occur at night (the high frequency categories), combine the morning hours
(the low frequency categories) into a single category.

242
CHAPTER 15
ANAL YZING PA TTERNS OF LOCATION

I
ANALYZING PAUEBNS OF LOCATIO~

Geographic analyses provide comparison~ which may not be easily

detennined from simply looking at addresses on crime reports. Further.
when a pin is used to indicate the location of one crime OR a map, the
relationship of that crime location to other similarly illustrated crimes
becomes apparent. Geographic analysis can be performed by mapping. and
by graphical and statistical methods.

Mapping techniques involve the use of a map to represent the actual

geographical relationship between criminal events. A pin map displaying
day or night residential burglaries over a given period of time is one
example of a mapping technique.

Graphical methods include comparhDns of prescribed geographical areas

with crime data. A series of bar graphs, e~{ch listing percentages for
particular crimes in specific areas over a given time period, gives the
analyst an overall picture of those crimes throughout a jurisdiction.

Statisti'cal methods of geographical data allow the analyst to identify crime

• patterns in beats, reporting areas or entire jurisdictions.

MAPPING TECHNIQUES:

Manual mapping techniques include pin maps, symbol maps, dot maps or
any other means for depicting crimes by location.

The number of data elements to be recorded on a map often dictates the

most effective technique. If the crime report number is to be recorded
with the location of the offense, a colored dot or flag pin (using colored
heads) map can be utilized. The colors indicate the type of crime. The
report number should be written on the dot or the flag. If particular MO
factors are to be recorded, various color-coded and marked pins can be
employed to identify specific MO patterns.

The length of time a particular map or set of maps is to be maintained is

also important. No absolute set of rules has been established regarding
map maintenance time, but maps are best maintained for one to three
months. Two maps may be maintained for each type of crime (one
reflecting weekly or monthly information and the other year-to-date or
quarterly information).

244
Map data should be stored so that it is easily retrieved. Pin maps can be
recorded by pbotograp1Jic means; using two ))fojectors to superimpose one
figure over another i" often effective. Color coded paper dots on ucetate
overlays of area 1!1apS facilitate data rec:overy for law enforc:ement
agencies whose access to equipment is limited. Computer produce,d and
coded area maps can be easily stored and retrieved by today's
microcomputer systems.

Seven is the minimum number of maps most crime analysis units should
maintain. Five crime types are well suited to geographical analysis:
burglary, robbery, special theft classifications, auto theft and sex crimes.
Two of these types (burglary and robb~ry) have logical sub classifications
(commercial and residential for burglary, and armed and unarmed for
robbery).

Three other informational maps have been found to be quite useful. One is
designed to suppon career criminal ~apprehension programs by mapping
the last known residences and specialties of known offenders. Another
supports narcotics operations by indicating locations of crack and crash
"pads", street corners where narcotics are sold and so on. A third map may
be used to depict locations where stolen propeny is "fenced". Communities
plagued by gang activities may find a map relating to gang "turfs" helpful
e
in deploying field resources, identifying criminal groups (and individuals),
and anticipating future inter-gang conflict. A department's ability to
"read" spray-painted graffiti provides the basic data for such maps.

GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS:

Graphical analysis compares prescribed geographical areas to a body of

compiled crime data. Compiling raw data into information which can be
plotted on graphs is extremely useful for identifying crime trends. This
method is well-suited to comparing criminal activity of a given type across
different geographical areas.

Two examples of geographic-graphical analysis are illustrated in Figures

34 and 35. Figure 34 provides a cpmparison of differing types of
burglaries in a 10 beat jurisdiction. This type of analysis is useful (when
performed on as short a time basis as possible-weekly, rather than
monthly) for identifying crime trends promptly.

Figure 3S illustrates a graphic useful for determining the relationship of ...

the present year's crime to crime of previous years in a given geographic -

245
NUMBER OF BURGLARIES IY TYPE
-1RRRRRAAAAAR
1 VVVVVVV KEY
ecce
~AAAAAA R: RESIDENCE
2 VVVVVVV
CCCCCCCC V: VEHICLE
---iRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
C: COMMERCIAL
B 3 VVVV
cccc
E ~AAARAAR
4 VVVVVVV
cce
A
rAARAAARAA
T 5 -VVVVV
cccccc
II _rRAAAARAAA
6 VVVVVV

• 7
eccccccCC
_ _rAAAAARAA
VVVVV
eccc
r RAAA
13 VVVVVVVVVV
ecccccccc
~RARAR
9 VVVVVVV
CC
---iAAAAAARAAAAAA
10 VVVVVVVVVVVV
ccc

Burglarle. By Type and Beat By Week

Figure 34

246
EXlmpl. of I Grlphlcil Anllysl. of the Pr.sent 8-Month P.rIOd Compared to the
Sam. Plrlod of thl Pravlous Yllr for Rilldlntlil Burgllrll •

..
180 • CURRENT YEAR
• PREVIOUS YEAR
en
<II
~

= 160
~
~
:=
=
-
.~
C
<II
140
"
u;
<II
a:
-...
0

CII
.c 120
E
:=
z

100
.
V ...........
~
~

0' MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT

MONTH

Figure 35

247
area. This type of graphic can be used for other, shorter, time periods such
as month-to-month or by day-of-week.

A major contemporary use of geographic-graphical analysis is in the area

of beat design and workload analysis. Suppose that a graphic such as the
one shown in Figure 34 indicates that one or two beats in a jurisdiction are
suffering the "lion's share" of certain types of crime. Such imbalance
suggests that beat boundaries should be reconfigured to balance the
workload on a geographical basis or that personnel should be reassigned to
balance the workload on a per-officer basis. If time-span imbalances are
identified, attention should be directed toward shift schedules.

STATISTICAL GEOGRAPHIC ANALY~IS:

Statistical analyses of crime information for geographic areas are useful for
determining where, and for what purpQse, tactical and special assignment
personnel (e.g., directed patrol operations) should be deployed. A
percentage analysis of purse snatchings and strong-armed robberies over a
one month period might indicate that a significant percentage of these
crimes were being committed in a restricted area. Such simple analysis

•
allows management to develop programs and assign personnel to impacted
areas for the purpose of suppressing crime and apprehending criminals.

A more sophisticated procedure of statistical graphical analysis involves

the conversion of pin map data (which are essentially points on a graph) to
specific areas of personnel deployment, independent of the beat structure
of a jurisdiction. Assume that a jurisdiction has suffered a series of crimes
and an MO analysis indicates these crimes are being committed by one
person. One method to identify the need for a directed patrol effort would
be to map the location of the crimes and "eyeball" the general area in
which a specialized unit might deploy. Unfortunately, different people
have' different eyeballs and hence, the best we will ever achieve is an
"educated guess".

The use of the standard deviation provides a more effective way to deploy
a directed operation. However, before we can use this powerful statistical
tool, we must convert conventional location data (street addresses) 'to
another form. To illustrate this need, let's assume that two crimes have
occurred: one at 123 Maple St. and the other at 456 Central Ave. The first
step in computing the standard deviation requirt!s that we compute the
arithmetic mean of the basic data. What is the arithmetic mean of 123
Maple and 456 Central? If you answered that you don't know, you are in
complete agreement with Messrs. Gottlieb and Arenberg, the authors of

248
this book. We do nOt know either. What is required is a method for
convening street addresses, such as our Maple and Central examples, into
numeric form where such concepts as an arithmetic mean make sense.
This is done through the use of a grid system.

Figure 36 locates ten crimes that an MO analysis suggests have been

committed by the same person. Each crime report has listed the address
where the crime was committed, thus allowing us to layout the problem
on a conventional map.

Figure 37 is the same map, with one addition. Note that a pair of axes
have been added, one labelled "North", and the other, "East". All axes are
located such that the area being analyzed lies to the right of the "North"
axis and above the "East" axis. It does not matter where the axes cross,
except that the area under consideration must be in the northeast
quadrant. If the area under analysis were a beach community on the
Pacific Ocean, the "North" and "East" "axes would intercert somewhere at
sea. Note that each axis in Figure 37 has been scaled into intervals of 5.
With this set of axes, actually an abbreviated form of a grid system, we can
convert each of our crime locations into a pair of numbers. Converting the
locations shown in Figure 37 to their respective grid locations, we get:

CRIME REPORT # COORDJNA1ES

EAST NOR1H
1 18 27
2 9 20
3 10 35
4 18 34
5 7 26
6 13 21
7 14 26
8 9 30
9 17 19
10 15 32
130 270 Column Totals

Now that we have converted street numbers to grid numbers, we can

apply the standard deviation to each set of grid coordinates. Since we
dealt with computing the standard deviation earlier, let's get right to the
results of the calculations and s~e how to apply this statistical tool to our
example:

249
• 3 .10

.7 • 1

• • 2
• 9

illustrative 13pot Map

Flgur. 36
'---------

250
NORTH
40

35 • 4

30 .8 .10

25
• 5 .7 .1

20 • 2
.e ~

••
15

10

-'
o +----+----+---I----4---=~·.....!:=::;::::===:.-_I1 EAST
o 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Spot Map with X-Y Coordinate Syst.m Added

Figure 37

251
Let's start with the East coordinates:

The. mean average East coordina.te = 130 / 10 = 13

and the standard deviation about this mean is +/- 4.06

For the North coordinate:

The mean average North coordinate = 270 / 10 = 27

and the standard deviation about this mean is +/- 5.75

Point X (Figure 38) is located at coordinates 13 East and 27 North, the

geographic center of the 10 crimes comprising our series. Note the
rectangle denoted ABCD. The East and West boundaries (vertical lines) are
4.06 units to the right of the central point "X" (the "+" value) and 4.06 units
to the left of the central point "X" (the "-" value). The North and South
boundarit!s (the horizontal components of the rectangle) are 5.75 units up
from point "X" (the "+" value) and 5.75 units down from point "X" (the ".it

• value). This rectangle now represents the geographic area in which 68% of
the crimes (one standard deviation) have occurred. If the criminal
continues this pattern, we may predict (with 68% certainty) that the
criminal will commit his next crime within rectangle ABCD. . If we were to
doublr! the distance from point "X" along all sides of the rectangle, we
would expand the rectangle to include 95% of the expected area of the next
occurrence (two standard deviations).

Wh/!n we place these 68% and 95% rectangles on a piece of acetate,

ov~;rlaying a map of our jurisdiction, we could conven our grid numbers to
street names and intersections for patrol's use. This is very useful
information for targeting a crime pattern or series.

252
NORTH
40

35 • 4

e10
8
30 e
X • 1
25
• 5
-7
es
20 e 2
e9
15

10

o +------4------4------4------4---~~~--~~~~~EAST
o 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Spot Map (One Standard Deviation Rectangle Added)

Figure 38

253
CHAPTER 16
RELATIONS AND PREDICTIONS

,
-- ~~--~-- ----

BELATIONS AND PREDICTIONS

We have long accepted the concept of "cause and effect"; do one thing and
something else will occur. Sometimes the result of a cause is a surprise,
such as the side effects of some medicine. Other times, we take a specific
action (the cause) to create a specific result (the effect). Often the cause is
controllable and, if the result is favorable, we continue; if not, we cease.
Such relationships are often of considerable interest to law enforcement
and we measure one factor (a cause) in order to determine another (the
result). We might count the number of neighborhood watch programs
operating and assume that the more programs we have in effect, the less
burglaries we will have. We might expect that the number of assaults in a
parking lot would decrease if lighting were improved. Or we might look to
another community's changes in crime after a particular action has been
taken, such as the building of a regional shopping c~nter.

Each situation provides an example in •which the change in one condition

might be associated with change in a second condition; two conditions are
seen to change in relation to each other. While we should not expect one
conditiQn to change a definite amount with each unit change in the other
condition, clear u'ends indicating mutual change often do appear in pairs of

• variables.

THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT:

In the world of crime analysis, we occasionally see two variables which

change together, almost unit for unit. Under other conditions we might
observe a tendency for one unit to change as the other unit changes a
given amount, or we might see no relationship between two variables at
all. Because the relationship between pairs of variables may ran go from
very close to none at all, we need a technique for identifying the extent to
which change~ in one variable ("X") are reflected by changes in another
(tty"). This technique is found in standard correlational procedures.

Correlation, in nonstatistical terms, means there is a l'~lationship between

two conditions. In statistical terms, correlation refers to the quantitative
relationship between two variables and is a measure with limits ranging
from -1.00 to + 1.00.

Suppose you were asked to guess the quantity of loot burgla,;zed knowing
only the shoe size of the burglar. Chances are Shoe size alone will tell you
nothing about the quantity stolen; there is generally no relationship

255
between these two variables. Such a condition would be indicated by a
correlation coefficient of zero. If, however t you were given thirty pairs of
shoes and were asked to guess the size of each right shoe from the
corresponding size of every left shoe, you would probably guess correctly.
In this case, the correlation coefficient would be +1.00 because the
relationship between left shoe size and right shoe size is generally a
perfect one.

Sometimes we find that as one condition increases, the other condition

decreases. The higher a cadet places in his class in the police academy, the
less likely he will fail to pass probation. If one condition increases as the
other decreases, there is still a definite relationship between these two
conditions. But, since one variable is decreasing as the other increases, the
relationship is a negative (or inverse) one. If for' r::very increase in "XII we
have an equivalent decrease in "Y", we have a completely predictable
correlation that is also negative. That correlation has a numerical value of
-1.00. "

Negative correlations are as useful as positive ones. The positive and

negative signs placed on correlations tell us the direction of expected
'change in one variable as the correlated variable changes. If two variables
increase or decrease together, the relationship is said to be positive, and
their coefficient of correlation will be a positive number between 0 and
+1.00. If two variables increase or decrease in opposite directions (one
increases while the other decreases), the relationship between them is said
to be negative and their coefficient of correlation will be a negative
number between 0 and -1.00. If a change in magnitude of one variable
tells us nothing about the condition of the other variable, there is no
relationship between the two variables and their correlation coefficient
will have a value of zero.

Most paired conditions in law enforcement do not change together

perfectly. As a result, analysts see many more correlation coefficients
between +/- 0.50 and +/- 0.60 than they see between +/- 0.90 and +/-
1.00. Do not expect perfect negative or positive relationships between
pairs of variables; if you get a perfect i'elationship, check your work. 'Such
correlations are rare. You probably "punched" a wrong button on your
calculator or keyboard.

256
THE SCATTER DIAGRAM:

The relationship between two variables can be illustrated by plotting them

on a bivariate graph, discussed previously in Chapter 11. If we have the
following data:
X: 1, 2, 3, 4

Y: 5, 5.5, 6. 6.5

graphed on a bivariate format. these data would look like Figure 39. Note
that as X increases a given amount, Y increases a proportionate amount.
but the increments are of different size. The relationship is, therefore,
perfect and poshive and the plotted points lie in a straight line.

All pairs of variables, however, do not' progress together. The relationship

between them is often less than perfect· even though there may be a clear
trend for "Y" to increase with each unit increase in "X". Here is one
example of this type of relationship:

•
X: 1, 2, 3, 4
Y: 4.9, 5.7, 5.9, 6.6
Graphed, the data would look like Figure 40. The tendency for "Y" to
increase with an increase in "X" is clear, but increases do not progress unit
for unit. The plotted points fall near, but not exactly on, the straight line.
Although the relationship is positive, it is not perfect and the con'elation
coefficient would be less than 1.00.

Similar examples illustrate other possible relationships. Figure 41 shows a

perfect negative relationship; as "X" increases a unit, "Y" decreases a
specific increment. Figure 42 shows a less than perfect negative
relationship; as "X" increases a unit, "Y" decreases, but not exactly
increment-for-increment. Figure 43 illustrates no relationship; a change in
"X" tells us nothing about a change in Ity". We call bivariate graphs such as
Figures 39, 40, 41, 42 and 43 scatter diagrams.

ComputinK ibe Correlation Coefficient;

Many hand-held calculators have been configured to compute correlation

coefficients. The correlation coefficient is labelled "r" universally, so it
shouldn't be difficult to find the appropriate discussion in your calculator

257
y

6.5

5.5

':f o 1
I I
2
I
3 4
I
x

Bivariate Graph (Perfect Positive Correlation)

Flgur. 39

258
v

•
I I I I I IX
o 1 2 3 4 5 6

Bivariate Graph (Positively CorrGlated, but not Perfectly)

Figur. 40

259
y

Bivariate Graph • (Perfect Negative Correlation)

Figure 41

260
y

®
® ® ®
® ®
® ® ®
®
®
• ® ®
®
®
®
x

Bivariate Graph • (Imperfect Negative Correlation)

Figure 42

261
v
® ®
® ®
® ®
®
® ®
® ®
®
® ®
® ® ®
® ® ®
® ®
®
X

Bivariate Graph .. Correlation =0 (No Correlation)

Figure 43

.262
manual or to recoanize :i correlation coefficient when it shows up on your
computer screen. The following are luidelines for interpreting the
meanin, of "r":
-1.00 perfect negative correlation
-0.800 to -0.999 strona negative correlation
-0.600 to -0.799 high negative correlation
-0.400 to -0.599 moderate negative correlation
-0.200 to -0.399 weak negative correlation
0.00 to -0.199 . negligible negative correlation
0.00 to +0.199 negligible positive correlation
+0.200 to +0.399 weak· 'positive correlation
+0.400 to +0.599 moderate positive correlation
+0.600 to +0.799 high positive correlation
+0.800 to +0.999 strong positive correlation
+1.00 perfect posi ti:ve correlation

Cautionary Note:

A common mistake in the use of correlation coefficients is assuming that a

•
change in one variable causes or is "caused" by a change in the other
variable. Correlation analysis cannot determine cause and effect. If we
were to show that a strong correlation existed between a cadet's standing
in his academy class and the number of speeders he cites five years later.
we are not indicating that one caused the other. We are simply observing
the relationship between two 'Y>ariables. If the cause and effect does exist.
it will take more sophisticated analysis to clearly demonstrate that
relationship. Don't fall into the cause-and-effect trap!

LINEAR PREDICTIONS:

Correlation coefficients make it possible to predict one measure's

relationship to another. One way to predict a value of "Y" when given a
value of "X" (when a significant relationship exists between "X" and tty") is
to compute the line of best fit (regression line) on your scatter diagram ..
The method for computing this line involve~ finding the "least squares fit"
to your data and is available on all statistical calculators and in all
statistical computer software.

All straight lines ~re defined by two parameters: slope and the Y-axis
intercept. Turn now to Figure 44. The slope is defined as the unit change
in "Y" indicated by a unit change in "X". Statistical texts often refer to the
slope by the letter "rn". Every straight line, if drawn sufficiently long. will

263
y

Change In Y

Chang. In X

Change In Y
Change In X
= slope, m
Y-axis Intercept, b

~----------------------------------------------- X
Basic Characteristics of a Straight Line

Figure 44

264
intercept the Y-axis. The point at which this occurs is referred to as "b".
The equation that determines these values is:

Y=mX+b

If the line goes downhill, "mPl will be negative. If the line intersects the y.
axis below the X-axis, "b" will also be negative. And of course, "m" and lib"
can be of different algebraic signs: use the algebraic sign your calculations
indicate.

Crime analysts are often asked to predict future occurrences on the basis
of past and current data. To apply the information given above to a "real
world" situation, assume that it is February 1989 and your Chief is
considering launching a new burglary prevention program. If he proceeds
with the project, the Chief estimates that it will be six months (August
1989) before program results can be adequately determine~.

Bo!fore he makes his final decision on the endeavor, the Chief requests you
provide him with a prediction of how many burglaries are likely to occur
six months from now if he dots not implement the program. Your

• prediction will help him to decide if the burglary problem is serious

enough to justify program implementa.tion costs.

To formulate your prediction, you arbitrarily choose to examine nine of the

last twelve months of burglary data (i.e. February through October of
1988). The key word above is "arbitrarily." You could just as easily select
data from a twelve month, sixteen month or any other time frame to
conduct your study. We just happened to pick February through October.
We will use this data to predict how many burglaries will occur in August
which is six months away. Le~'s assume your data is as follows:

1988 BURGLARIES BY MONTH

MONTH NUMBER OF BURGLARIES

February 4S
March 60
April 65
May 80
June 7S
July 95
August 90

265
September 1 120
October 110

Since statistics deal with numbers, we must now convert the name of each
month to a number. Since February is the second month of the year. for
the sake of convenience, we will give it the number 2. March will be 3, etc.
Having done that. we will redesign the above table. Months will be listed
in an ttX" column and burglaries will be listed in a tty" column as shown
below:

x y

2 45
3 60
4 65
5 80
6 75
7 95
8 90
9 120
10 110

The first thing. you would do is plot the data as a bivariate graph. See
Figure 45. Note that the data have an uphill trend. Working with a
statistical calculator or statistical computer software, you would now enter
the data from the X and Y columns into the calculator or computer and
calculate the slope "m" and the Y-intercept "b". Your calculator or
computer should reveal that:
m = +8.4

and

b =+31.7
These numbers, when substituted into the equation

Y=mX+b
will give you
Y = 8.4X + 31.7

To plot your line, find 31.7 on the Y-axis and make a point. From this
point go one unit to the right and then go up 8.4 units and make a point.
Draw a line through the two points you just made; the resulting line i~ the

266
"LEAST SQUARES" FIT
Y This Line's cllcullted by the equltlon:
120

Y =8.4X + 31.8' . •
100

80
•

60

40

20

~--+---~--~~--~---+--~--~--~I~ X
o 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10

Figure 45

.e
267
line of best fit. Note: if "m" (+31.7 in this case) had been negative, you
would have moved right one unit and then down 8.4 units.

You now know how to use the "line of best fit" for predictive purposes. At
this point you are ready to make your prediction as to the number of
burglaries that are likely to occur in August 1989.

Recall that your table ended with the data from October 1988. This was
month 10. It is now February 1989. If the table was to continue,
February would be month 14. August 1989, the subject of your interest,
would be month 20. Since you wish to know how many burglaries C'Y")
are likely to o'ccur in August, you must. substitute the number 20 for "X" in
the equation as shown below:

Y = (8.4 X 20) + 31.7

Y = 168"t 31.7

Y = 199.7

The value of Y could also have been obtained from an accurately

constructed graph.

Thus, when X = 20, Y = 199.7. When rounded, this number is 200.

Therefore, 200 burglaries are predic,ted to occur in August 1989 (month
20) and it is this number that you will give to your Chief.

A note of caution: a line of "best fit" can be constructed from any data, but
the line does not a.lways predict well for many law enforcement
applications. If the correlation coefficient, "r", you calculated falls between
-0.600 and +0.600, do not use linear projection-the correlation will
probably be too weak to use for predictions. Linear projection is best used
when fIr" is +.8 or higher or -.8 Oi' lower. When "r" is between +.8 and -.8,
predictive equations other than linear should be considered. Further
discussion of these other equatiokls exceed the scope of this book. Readers
are encouraged to obtain a commercial text or software package that
explains their calculation and function.

RANGE OF ESTIMATE:

You will note that only one of the original data points in Figure 45 falls on
the line of best fit. Some are above the line, others below. Your calculation
for "Y", in the above example, 200 cases, will fall on the line because you

268
calculated it to fall on the line. But don't forget-it's only a prediction.
However, there is no reason to believe that for X=20, the actual value for
"Y" will fall on the line. The actual value of "Y" will not be known until
sometime in the future and it may vary from what you predicted it to be.
All predictions are merely "educated" guesses, based on acceptable
statistical procedures. No statistically-based prediction will be, nor should
it be expected to be, exact, and the analyst must have some method for
determining over what range his or her estimate will fall.

One way to ascertain the range of an estimate is to determine the mean

average difference between successive val,ues of "X" as explained below:

Step 1: Compute the absolute difference between successive

values of X.

Step 2: Compute the mean av~rage of these differences USIng our

original data:

ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE
BElWEEN CURRENT AND

•
X Y PREVIOUS VALUE OF Y

2 45
3 60 15 (60-45 = 15 )
4 65 5 (65-60 = 5)
5 80 15 etc.
6 75 5
7 95 20
8 90 5
9 120 30
10 110 --LQ
105 Column Total
Values in the difference column were found by subtracting successi ve
values of "Y" from each other; all. algebraic signs are ignored. The average
of the differences in this example is:

105/8 = 13.125

Our actual forecast of "Y" when X = 20 is 199.7 (from our equation for the
line of best fit), +/- 13.125. The value of "Y" we would expect when X=20
would lie somewhere between 186.68 and 212.93, and we would be 509',
confident that our estimate was correct. The 50% indicates that our

269
computations were based on the mean average as calculated 10 Step 2
above.

A more accurate method for determining the range of forecasted values

requires calculating the "variation around the line". Using the standard
deviation of point estimates, the analyst is able to estimate with a higher
degree of accuracy. This procedure may be found in statistical software
packages and elementary statistics textbooks and you are encouraged to
familiarize yourself with it.

SEASONAL AVERAGING .. METHOD (1):

All of the methods necessary to carry out the various steps of Seasonal
Averaging - Method (2) presented below were covered in Chapter 12.

Consider the following data to represent the number of reported burglaries

:. or
over a three year period:

YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3

JAN 50 65 75
FEB 45 70 80
MAR 55 65 70
APR 55 80 75
MAY 65 85 90
JUN 70 95 100
JUL 80 110 120
AUG 75 100 125
SEP 60 90 110
ocr 65 75 90
NOV 65 85 95
I:H:: 75 90 100

. Step 1: Calculate the grand mean by summing all burglaries for

the three year period and dividing this sum by 36,
(2900/36 = 81).

Step 2: Calculate the mean for each month.

For January: (50+65+75)/3 ~";: 63

For February: (45+70+80)13 = 65

etc.

270
Step 3: Calculate the seasonal adjustment f&ctor (SAF) for each
month by dividing the monthly mean by the grand mean.

For January: 63/81 = 0.78

For February: 65/81 = 0.80

The process is continued for the rest of the months.

The first three steps of Method 2 as, applied result in the following
table:

MEAN
AVERAGE SAF(*)
•
JAN 63 0.78
FEB 6S 0.80
MAR 63 0.78
APR 70 0.86

•
MAY 80 0.99
JUN 88 1.09
JUL 103 1.27
AUG 100 1.23
SEP 87 1.07
ocr 77 0.95
NOV 82 1.01
I:JI: 88 1.09

* Seasonal Adjustment Factor

Step 4: Divide each data point by its seasonal adjustment factor

(SAP).

For January of YEAR 1: 5010.78 = 64

For January of YEAR 2: 65/0.78 = 83

For February of YEAR 3: 80/0.80 = 100

etc.

271
•
Step 4 results in the following:

ORlGINAL DATA ADJUSTED FOR SAF

YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3

JAN 64 83 96
FEB 56 88 100
MAR 71 83 90
APR 64 93 87
MAY 66 86 91
JUN 64 87 92
JUL 63 87 94
AUG 61 81 102
SEP 56 84 103
OCT 68 79 95
NOV 64 84 94
r:a: 69 83 92

STEP 5: Fit a least squares line to the seasonally adjusted data ..

Remember: the months must be converted to numbers.
Therefore, January of YEAR 1 = 1; January of YEAR 2 =
13; December of YEAR 1 = 12; June of YEAR 2 = 18; etc.
The equation for your exemplary least squares line fitted
to the seasonally adjusted data is:

Y=mX+b

U sing your calculator or statistical computer software to

solve the equation will give you the following result:

Y = 1.1X + 60.8

Where: X is the time period and

Y is the seasonally adjusted value

STEP 6: The analyst can now estimate the number of burglaries

for any month in the not too distant future. For example,
for June of YEAR 4 (that has an X value of 42), the
predicted number of burglaries (Y) is:

Y =60.8 + 1.1 x 42 = 107

272
STEP 7: Dividing the linearized estimate for Iune (107) by the
seasonal adjustment factor for June (which is 1.09 as
shown in the chart in Step 2 above) gives us 107/1.09 =
98.16. Rounded, this is 98, the estimated number of
burglaries for Iune, YEAR 4 .

273
CHAPTER 17
ON CALCULATORS AND SOFTWARE

I
ON CALCULATORS AND SOFIWARE

CALCULATORS:

Many companies make statistical calculators which incorporate many of

the procedures we have discussed or into which the procedures can be
easily programmed. Should you decide to purchase a statistical calculator,
be sure to choose one whose documentation you can read and understand!

COMPUTER SOFTWARE:

Because of budget limitations, we were unable to purchase and test for

oursel ves tfie wide variety of statistical software packages which are
currently on the market. As such, we had to rely on product reviews or
recommendations provided us by others to present the information which
follows. Please note, however, that many packages which are not
commented upon here are also available: We recommend that you visit
your local computer store and determine for yourself which product(s) will
best meet your needs.

The software package we finally obtained for ourselves was provided to us

e· by SYSTAT, Inc. SYSTAT is unique in that a version is available both for

the Macintosh and for the IBM-PC. This feature is useful if you are sharing
information in a department that uses both IBM and Macintosh equipment.
Nomenclature for statistical parameters is the same in both versions,
facilitating communication. The package contains everything that's been
discussed in this book, and more. SYSTAT, Inc. also produces a less
extensive version (called MYSTAT) that does almost everything described
in this book, but costs considerably less than SYST AT. They also
manufacture FASTAT, an easy-to-Iearn basic statistics and graphics
package specifically designed to run on Macintosh equipment. For
additional information, contact SYSTAT at:

SYSTAT Inc.
1800 Sherman Avenue
Evanston, Illinois 60201
(312) 864-5670

A major contender with SYSTAT is SPSSIPC+. SPSS stands for Statistical

Package for the Social Sciences and SPSSIPC+ presents the IBM or IBM
compatible user with a wide variety of statistical features. Authors of
Infoworld Magazine (September 1, 1986) state that th~ package is fast and
accurate and impressive in terms of its use of colors and auditory prompts
to give users both flexibility and quality output. Further, the

275
documentation supplied with the package is purported to be excellent. For
additional information contact:
SPSS Inc.
444 N. Michigan A venue
Chicago, Illinois 60611
(312) 329-3500

STATGRAPHICS 3.0, manufactured by STSC Inc., is designed to run on IBM

and IBM compatibles and may well generate the most impressive graphics
of any statistcial packages on the market. in/oworld Magazine reviewers
(July 31, 1989) state that the documentation is clearly written, a definite
"must" for statstical packages, and that the STATGRAPHICS manual
contains the best-written tutorial they have seen. On the downside, they
felt that it was a bit sluggish unless used with a math coprosessor, and that
it omits the newest graphics features of the competition such as multiple
font types and data highlighting and brushing. Nonetheless, it was felt that
STATGRAPHICS 3.0 was the best gene~ral stat package for quality-control
analyses or for those needing a stat package that can be used without
remembering a slew of commands. For additional information, contact:

STSC Inc.
2115 E. Jefferson Street
Rockville, Maryland 20852
(800) 592-0050

STATVIEW 512+ by BrainPower, Inc. has also been cited as an excellent

package for use with Macintosh equipment. It provides every statistical
function you will need for crime analysis work, plus a few others you may
never need at all. The program easily imports data from other Macintosh
applications (using text files or the Clipboard) or from other computers
(using text files). Once data has been loaded into the program, variables
are defined, analyses are r)ln and graphic views are produced in record
time. STATVIEW 512+ was the winner of the 1988 Macworld Magazine
World Class Award. BrainPower, Inc. also offers three other programs:
STATVIEW, an introductory statistics package; STAVIEW II, for use with a
MAC II or a Plus/SE with a 68881 math coprosessor; and STATVIEW
SE+GRAPHICS, a special version of STATVIEW II for the Macintosh SE. For
additional information, contact:

BRAINPOWER Inc.
24009 Ventura Boulevard, Suite 250
Calabasas, California 91302
(818) 707-1712

276
As mentioned earlier, these are only a few of the many statistical software
packages which are available. If you have the opportunity to do so, try
before you buy. We suggest, however, that belo re you make a
considerable investment in statistical software, you purchase an electronic
calculator that has been configured to handle basic statistical computations.
We have found that use of such a tool is a cost-effective way to get a good
"feel" for statistical calculations, and an excellent method for identifying
your needs before you select a software package for your computer.

277
BIBLIOGRAPHY

,
BIBLIOGRAPHY

Berge, C., Theory of Graphs and its Applications, John Wiley & Sons,
New York, 1962.

Block, P. B., and Weidman, D. R., Managing Criminal Investigations,

U.S. Department of Justice, 1975.

Brown, Dale K., Callin.g the Police: Citizen Reporting of Serious Crime,
National Institute of Justice, 1984.

Brown, R. G., Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time

Series, Prentice~Hal1; Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1963.

California State Department of Ju~ice, Introduction to Crime

Analysis, Department of Justice Training Center, "n.d."

. Caplan, Marc, Efficient Use of Police Resources, National Institute of

Justice, 1983

• Chase, C. I., Elementary Statistical Procedures, Second Edition,

McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1976.

Chang, Samson K., ~., Crime Analysis System Support: Descriptive

Report of Manual and Automated Crime Analysis Functions,
International Association of Chiefs of Police, 1979.

Durand, D., Stable Chaos, General Learning Press, Morristown, N. J.,

1971.

Fienberg, S. E. and Reiss, Jr. A. J., Indicators of Crime and Criminal

Justice: Quantitative Studies, U. S. Department of Justice, 1975.

Gay, W. O. et aI, Improving Patrol Productivity: Volume I, Routine

Patrol, U. S. Dpeartment of Justice, 1977.

Grassie, R. O. ~,Crime Analysis Executive Manual, Integrated

Criminal Apprehension Program, U. S. Department of Justice, 1977.

Grassie, R. O. ~, Crime Analysis System Manual, Integrated

Criminal Apprehension Program, U. S. Department of Justice, 1977.

279
Grassie, R. O. and Hollister, J. A., A Preliminary Guideline Manual for
Patrol Operations Analysis, Integrated Criminal Apprehension
Program, U. S. Department of Justice, 1977.

Greenberg, D. F., Mathematical Criminology, Rutgers University Press,

New Brunswick, N. J., 1979.

Local Government Police Management, ed. by Bernard L. Garmire,

International City Management Association, c. 1982

Luce, R. D. and Raiffa, H., Games and Decisions, John Wiley & Sons,
New York, 1958.

McGhee, J. W., Introductory Statistics, West Publishing Company, St.

Paul, 1985.

Monroe, David Q, and Garrett, Earle W., Police Conditions in the

United States, A Report to the National Commission on Law
Observance and Enforcement, Patterson Smith Reprint Series, 1968.

Moroney, M. J., Facts From Figures, Penguin Books, London, 1971.

Oberlander, L., Editor, Quantitative Tools for Criminal Justice

Planning, U. S. Department of Justice, 1975.

Office of Criminal Justice Planning, Career Criminal Apprehension

Program Guidelines, State of California,. 1988.

Reinier, G. H., et aI, Crime Analysis in Support of Patrol, National

.Evaluation Program, Phase I Summary Report, U. S. Department of
Justice, 1977.

Reinier, G. H., et aI., Crime Analysis Operations Manual, U. S.

Department of Justice, Law Enforcement Assistance Administration,
1977.

Schack, S. et a1. Improving Patrol Productivity: Volume 1/,

Specialized Patrol, U. S. Department of Justice, 1977.

Silverman, E. N., and Brody, L. A., Statistics-A Common Sense

Approach, Prindle, Weber, and Schmidt, Boston, 1974.

280
Slonim, M. J., Sampling in a Nutshell, Simon and Schuster, New York,
1960.

Timko, John J., Statistics for "Math Haters," (publisher unknown),

1985.

Tufte, E. R., The Visual Display of Quantiitative Information, Graphics

Press, Cheshire, Connecticut, 1983.

... U. S. Law Enforcement Administration, Review of Patrol Operations

Analysis: Selected Readings from lCAP Cities, U. S. Department of
Justice, 1978.

Wagner, H. M., Principles of Operations Research, Prentice-Hall,

Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1969.

Whitaker, G. P., Understanding Polite Agency Perforuance, U. S.

Department of Justice, 1984 .

281
APPENDIX
-
CAREER CRIMINAL IDENTIFICATION WORKSHEET
STANISLAUS COUNTY SHERIFF'S DEPARTMENT

NAME: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _DOB: _ _ _ _ _ _ DATE:·_ _ _ _ _ _ _ III

S/OIO#_:_______________c , n # : - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1. PRESENTLY UNDER INVESTIGATION FOR THE COMMISSION OR ATTEMPTED

COMMISSION OF ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING FELONIES:
(CHECK APPROPRIATE ITEM AND UST FILE NUMBER)
ALE# _________________

_ _ 187 _ _487.1,.2 _ _ 10851

_261 (1) TIIRU (7) _ _487.3 _ _ 451 & 452
_ _ 288 _ _496.1 ONLY _ _ 11351 & 11352
211 459 1ST DEGREE ONLY

II. AND (EITHER A, B, OR C)

A. WHO IS UNDER SUSPICION OF HAVING COMMrITED THREE OR
MORE SEPARATE FELONIES NOT ARISING OUT OF THE SAME
e TRANSACTION:
CRIME WHEN Fll..E#
~. l. _________ ____________________________________
~

2. ______________________________________________
3. ______________________________________________

B. WHO HAS PRIORS OF AT LEAST ONE CONVICTION IN THE FOLLOWING

WITIIIN THE LAST 10 YEARS EXCLUDING PRISON TIME
(GIVE DATE & DISPO)
_ _ 187 _ _ 209 _ _ 211 _ _ 261 _ _ 286
_ _288(A) _ _ 288A _ _ 451 _ _ 452 - - 460.1

C. WHO HAS PRIORS OF AT LEAST TWO CONVIcnONS IN THE FOLLOWING

WITlflN THE LAST 10 YEARS EXCLUDING PRISON TIME
(GIVE DATE & DISPO)
_ _ 460.1(2) _ _ 487 _ _ 487.3 _ _ 10851 _ _496.1
211 211A _ _ 212.5 _ _ 213 _ _213.1
_ _ 213.2 _ _ 213.3 _ _ 245 _ _ 245.2 _ _245.3
_ _ 245(A~ _ _ 207 _ _245(B) _ _ 245(C) _ _245(A)(1)
_ _ 245(A)(2_)_11351 _ _11352 _ _ 11351.5 _ _ 11351(A)
_ _ 11352(A) 245(A)/W

e--------~--------·-------------------
PREPARED BY: SOURCE: S/O Fll..ES _ _ _ _ _ __
en mSTORY __________
DA FILES _ _ _ _ _ __
cc: CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

282
DATE 08-16-88 BULLETIN: 88-0002

NAME/AKA'S: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

DESCruwnON: _______________________________________________________________________________

ADDRESSES:
OTHER: ________________________________________________________________________________

DETAILS: ____________________

___________________________________________________________________________________
C
A
U
~
O
:
PAROLE~O: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________

PROBATION: YES NO
SUBMITTED BY: - - - - - - - - DETAIL: _ _ _ _ _ PHONE: -----e
'··:,:::t::::::?:,:;:::,,;:i.[:::i:;::;:,/:(3@NEIDENooIAtt:;;::;g:;;,t1S!4Vl :·ENEGRGEMEN01};::cISE·::(jNL¥:;.):i:irr:::tJ;:':::·:::;:::\i\·1
JIM TREVENA SHERIFF-CORONER PO BOX 858, MODESTO, CALIFORNIA 95353
STANISLAUS COUNfY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

I 1.
W ANTED PERSONS BULLETIN J
WAWLrIE!D) CO>W A WArn.rn.AW~
DATE ~~ BULLETIN:
NAME CHARGES

AKA REPORT #

DOB AGE_RACE_ SEX_ WARRANT #

HGT_ _ WGT_ _ HAIR_ EYES_ ADDRESS(S), _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

SOC SEC #

FBI#! Cll#

•
DL# STATE

VEI-UCLE

RIO

AREASOFACTIVlTY

DETM~: ______________________________________________

CAU INFO: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ,_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

PAROLE INFO: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
PROBATION: YES, _ _ NO_ _
SUBMITrED BY~ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ DETAll..: _ _ _ _ _ _ PHONE: _ _ _ __

eI CONFIRM ALL WARRANTS-LAW ENFORCEMENT USE ONLY

JIM TREVENA SHERIFF-CORONER PO BOX 858, MODESTO, CALIFORNIA 95353

STANISLAUS COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

II WANTED PERSONS BULLETIN II

®IJ~IJ(!JJ® OO~~@~IJ

[!j~irE 08-1 5-88

DATE DATE
NAME BULLETIN# ISSUED ARRESTED ARRESTED BY

ROTII, BRADLEY MATIHBW 88-0063 07-28-88 09-06-88 DEP.DELNERO

NAME BULLETIN DATE ISSUED WANTED BY

LVARADO, MARCUS 88-0007 01-08-88 DET. BLANUSA

BOOTII, DONALD 88-0015 01-15-88 DET. CERNY

CORDER. RANDY 88-0020 02-05-88 DET. DULANEY

RAMOS. JESUS 88-0023 02-09-88 GONZALES

ZAMORA, SANTIAGO 88-0024/87 -0004 02-09-88 DET. PEDE

PUCKETI', ERIC 88-0029 02-23-88 DRUG ENFORCEMENT

TORRES, MAXIMINO 88-0030 02-23-S8 DET. PEDE

BLACKSHEAR, GARY 88-0031 02·23·88 DET. PEDE

JOHNS, ROCKY 88-0032 02·25·88 DET. PROllNE

SZEPANIK, CHARMAINE 88·0033 03·1S·88 DET.LUIZ

•• OVER ••

JIM TREVENA SHERIFF-CORONER PO BOX 858, MODESTO, CALIFORNIA 95353

STAMSLAUSCOUNTYS~SDEPARTMENT
CRIME ANALYSIS
\W£i\WJiJ[g@ ~[EOO®@(N]® [ID(!.JJ[6[6~OWJ
®if£i\iflW® [M)@@a~o©ti\iJO@[NJ ~@[ru~

TO: CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT DATE: _ _ _ __

FROM: ____________________________ PHONE: _ _ _ _ __

••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
sUBmcrsNAMrn: _________________________
REGARDING WPB#: _ _ __ Fll...E#: _ _ __
CHECK CURRENT STATUS;

NO CHANGE. STILL WANTED AS BULLETIN WAS INlTIALLY ISSUED

,
ARRESTED - CANCEL WPB
BOL CANCELLATION DATE _ __
ARREST DATE AGENCY/AUTHORITY

_ NO LONGER WANTED - CANCEL WPB

BOL CANCELLATION DATE _ __
EXPLAIN CONDmONS OF CANCELLATION:
DATE AGENCY/AUfHORITY REASON

STATUS HAS CHANGED FROM I&B TO WARRANT

PROVIDE WARRANT# AND ANY ADDmONAL INFORMATION
REQUIRED TO REISSUE AS WANTED ON WARRANT:

_ ADDmONAL INFORMATION REQUIRES UPDATED WPB

EXPLAIN AND AITACH NEW COMPLETED WPB FORM IF NECES-
SARY FOR CLARIFICATION:

FOR CRIME ANALYSIS USE ONLY:

-----

STANISLAUS COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT

CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

It WANTED PERSONS BULLETIN II

OOO[F@[ru[M]ti\ifa@~ ~ LID~f10~[F

NAME~ _________________~_C~GE-------------------
AKA __________________
~ORT#

DOB _ _ AGE RACE SEX-- WARRANT# _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

HGT.--WGT----HAIR--..EYES _ _ _ ADDRESS(S) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

SOC SEC#_ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

FBI# _ _ _ _ Cll# _ _ _ _ __

DL# _ _ _ _ _ _ STATE _ _---.;

VEHICLE _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

WO __________________

AREAS OF ACI'IVITY - - - - - -

D~AUS:----------- ______________ ~ ________________,

CAU INFO: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

PAROLE INFO: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
PROBATION: YES_ NO_
SUBMIITED BY: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ DETAIL: _ _ _ _ _ PHONE: - - - - _ . _

JIM TREVENA SHERIFF-CORONER PO BOX 858, MODESTO, CALIFORNIA 95353

STANISLAUS COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENr
CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

II WANTED PERSONS BULLETIN Il

OOO~@[¥JUill~trU@OO &l [ID~l60~~

NAME HODGE. JOHN CHRISlPPHER CHARGE 261.2 PC

AKA SALDIVAR. JOHN CHRISTOPHER _______________
~ORT'~S~8~-Q~68~Q~3
__________________ _
OOB 09-10·6S AGE.ll.. RACE w SEX
W~7#

M
HGT S' S" WGT -ill HAIR l!.BJi. EYES BEN ADDRESS(S) 2431 SYLVAN RD #3
MODESTO

SOC SEC # 568-29-7030

FBI# CII# A07680691

DL# C3273Q42 STATE ~CAIe.&-_ _

VEHICLE BLK VW BUG WITH

BLUE PIN STRIPING
RIO UNKNOWN
AREAS OF ACTIVITY MODESTO
AND CERES
••• OFFICER SAFETY···

DETAILS: ON 04-18-88. susPgCT HODGE ALONG WITH N'lOTIfER SUSPEcr RICHARD AN-
THONY SILER. WHO IS IN CUSTODY. TOOK A FEMALE TO T.I.D. LAT. #2 NEAR IEGNAR RD.
\VHERE BOTH SUSPEcrS RAPED HER.
SUSPECT HODGE KNOWS HE IS WANTED AND WILL RUN

CAU INFO: PRIORS: 243 CBl. 148.240(242.273.5. 46Q. 1. 12020(A) PC

APDmONAL AKA'S); HODGE. CHRIS; HODGE. JON CHRlSIOPHER
PAROLEThWO: ______________________________ ~ _________________

PROBATION: YES..2L NO_

SUBMITIED BY: DET. DELEON DETAIL: CRIMES AGAINSIPERSONS PHONE: 525·7956

e
I

JIM TREVENA SHERIFF-CORONER PO BOX 858, MODESTO, CAUFORN'..A 95353

--
COLTON POLICE DEPARTMENT

CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

CRXME PATTERN BU~LETXN

Thursday, Jenuary 5, 1989

A tentetive pattern of et least 6 burglaries has been identified

in the aree bounded by Leurel st on the north, 8th Street on the
west, D Street on the south and Mount Vernon on the east.

CASE LOCATION OATE/TI~E DAY OF WEEK ENTRY

88-31259 1119 N. La Cadena 12-09 1300 Fri Pry Front Door

88-31646 370 E. BStreet 12-13 2310 Tue Pry Kitchen Window Screen

88-30762 1298 N. 8th Street 12-03 1450 Sat Adlitted by occupant (88 YOAI

88-32100 712 N. 11th Street 12-18 1930 Fri Unknown leans

12-19 1800 Sat

88-32712 1270 N. 8th Street 12-26 1835 ~on Unlocked rear door

88-32684 400 E. 0 Street 12-24 111? Fri Pry Kitchen Door

12-25 11?1 Sat

Three suspect descriptions ere available:

1. H/M/A 35 YOA 509 160 Bro Bro LSW Levis, Blu pleid shirt
blue ski caD.
2. W/M/A 30's 508 220 Bro Hair LSW tan-kheki pants, jacket
dark beanie.
3. H/M/? 505 165 Blk hair, NFD

Suspect has teken items he cen carry by hand: jewelry, cesh,

smell electronic devices, etc. Large valuable items have been
lett behind.

A POSSIBLE suspect is:

, P H/M/A 40 YOA 01/09/48 508 160
Blk Bro (CPD 8:
No current address is on tile.

His M.O. is similar to the one shown here. He was convicted

ot burglery in 19 (3 counts). He has a history of
burglery, trespass, battery, heroin addiction, end traffic.
See back tor photo and mep.

CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION - FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT USE ONLY

DISPOSE OF IN C.O.R.I. BASKET

Notity the Crime Analysis Unit it eny errests result from this
Crime Pattern Bulletin.
COLTON POLICE DEPARTMENT

CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

Photo t~ken 1979 (Most Current) _.

~ 1'-' I

7 .:
~
"'Ii/.:
/ ,I / .~':.
I /
/
I

.-.
::

I I

• INFOR"ATION IN THIS BULLETIN 1$ TO ASSIST LAW ENFORCEnENT OFFICERS IN THEIR INVESTIGATIONS ONLY. ~ERSONS
A~~EARING HEREIN ARE NOT NECESSARIl.Y ASSOCIATED WITH OR ~ART OF ACRIniNAL ACTIVITY. UNLESS SPECIFICALLY
INDICATED, THERE ARE NO WANTS OR WARRANTS KNO~N AND ~ROBABLE CAUSE TO DETAIN "U5T BE DEVELOrED OM AN
INDIVIDUAL BASIS BY FIELD OffICERS.
LONG BEACH POLICE DEPARTMENT

CRIMINAL INFORMA TION BULLETIN

BULLETIN '89-35 FE6RUARY 17. 1989

BEAT 9
RESIDENTIAL BURGLARIES

There were 29 residential burglaries reported during the period of

January 2nd through February 10th.
Several burglaries occurred 1n the area of 11th St. south to lOth St. and
St. louis Ave. east to Ohio Ave. A total of 15 burglaries were reported
in the vicinity of 17th St. south to Anaheim St. and Cherry Ave. east to
Redondo Ave.

• OCCURRENCE FACTS:
Most Common Time of Day: 2400-0759 hours (06.9%)
0800 1559 hours (48.3%)
a

1600-2359 hours (44.8%)

Most Common Days of Week: .sun M2n
lli Wid. IhY. Er.i Sat
34445 7 2
Method of Entry: Broke/Remove Window 27.6%
Window Pried Open 10.3%
Door Pried Open 10.3%
Object of Attack: jewelry, television/VCR
Suspects:
CR' 890-5904 H/B, 20's, 5-8/5-9, 190, blk wavy hair, drk
compl, gray T-shirt, blk pants
Veh: POSSe Dodge Dart, early 70's, 20, blk/yel
CRN 890-3275 MIB, 30's, 6-1, 150, blk short hair, plaid
shirt, drk bro pants, tennis shoes
Veh: Metallic blu Hyundai, partial lie' 2JZW57_
.e REFER: Corporal J. Johnson, Burglary Detail, extension 7351,
or Karen McDade, Crime Analysis Unit, extension 6647.
e- RESIDENTIAL BUe -
01/02/89-02/10/89
ES BEAT 9 e~1

• Single Occurrences
• Multiple Occurrences

L,.."i4

~~':
..'

POLICE BEA T MAP 9

LONG BEACH POLICE DEPARTMENT

CRIMINAL INFORMA TION BULLETIN

BULLETIN #89-36 FEBRUARY lO. 1989

BEAT 11
AUTO THEFTS

Beat 11 has a high number of auto burglaries (see previous CIB's) as well
as auto thefts each month. From January 22nd through February 11th,
there were 24 auto thefts. Toyotas and Chevrolets were the most common
vehicles stolen.

•
Sixty-two percent of the thefts occurred in the area around the Traffic
Circle and south to Anaheim Street. Two vehicles stolen elsewhere were
recovered at 4351 E. Willow and one was found at 5000 Airport Plaza
Drive. See pin map on page 2 for locations.
Two suspects were ar'rested and one of the arrests was by LASO-Carson.

OCCURRENCE FACTS:
Host COl1ll1on Time of Day: 2400-0759 hours (58.3%)
0800-1559 hours (20.8%)
1600-2359 hours (20.8%)
Host COl1ll1on Days of Week: Sun H2n ~ 1W1 IhY. .Ed.
254 2 5 2
.s.u
4
Vehicle Hakes: 20.8% Toyota (Celica Corolla, HR2)
t:
16.6% Chevrolet (Camaro, Citation)
12.5% Ford (PU)
12.5% Nissan (280ZX)
Suspects: None described

REFER: Sergeant D. A. Skelton, Auto Theft Detail, extension 7362,

or Karen Thielman, Crime Analysis Unit, extension 6647.
------ ----- ~-----------------­

- 2 -

AUTO THEFTS
1/22 - 2/11/89

i&UtC"

e
~)

.. Single occurrence
~MultiPle occurrence
~ Recovered Vehicle

POLICE BEAT rv~AP 11

CHINO POLICE DEPARTMENT
MEMORANDUM

To: Officer M. Dell, Swing Patrol

-rom: Alan Be~iamOI, Crime Analyst

Subj: Crime Activity· Beat 3 and 4

Date: March 9, 1989

'7 ..

Per your request, a detailed area analysis was conducted In Beats 3 and 4. All crimes between 1986 and 1988 were
retrieved, graphed and examined. Included in this report is an analysis of the CFS from May 1986 to May 1987 and an
arrest analysis of narcotics in beats 3 and 4.

The information was then correlated to Identify trend. for day of week and :by time of day and to identify the
t.:ausation of the rise of the crime activity in beats 3 and 4. In addition, targeted crimes, Ioc(itlons, and possible known
offenders were identified in the targeted areas. The following charts, graphs, and data will aid in developing a directed
patrol for your shift.

E~CUTIYE SUMMARY;
Since January 1, 1989, there was a tctal of 233 burglaries, of which 55%(128: cases) occurred in Beats 3 and 4. As
compared to the same tim a period in 1986. there was a total of 201 burglaries, of which 49%(98 cases) occurred in Beats
3 and 4. This represents a signnicant increase of 31% in the targeted area (Beat 3 & 4). OVerall, there is a 12-/. increase
of burglaries city-wide for 1988 and 1989.

As shown in below graphs, the annual average of city-wide burglary is 7% and'the targeted area is 17%. The city-wide
Part I crimes annual average is 13%. The targeted area had the highest aver.age with a 23% increase.

CITY VS BEAT 3 & 4

1988 1987 1988 1989

PART I CRIMES Avg 13% inc.
700

400200
600
500

100
300Ulm~_[R1T
o
1988 1987 1988 1989
LEI. CITY E:I BEAT 3 & 4 I
~ above graphs display a positive growth for each variable. However, Beats 3 and .. show a stronger growth because
. . . of ratio of 2 to 1. In essence, there are more burglaries and other part I crimes occurring in the targeted area. This
ivement is expected to continue through March 1989.

31
• the below graphs show the 1987 and the 1988 monthly pattern of the Part I crime activity for Beats 3 and 4. As indicated, there 'Nill be a
mild increase of activity during February and March in Seats 3 and 4. The Part I crime activity throughout the year (1989) will be active
and consistent.

BEAT 4 MONTH • BEAT 3 & 4

90--------------------~------------------------------------------~

80
70~-----------------------------------------------------------~~~
60
50r-~~----~~~·~~--'·~~~----~~~~~~~~~~~
40
30
20
10
O~----~--~~--~~--~----~--
BEAT 3
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
.... --~~--~-----.~--~--~~--~
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

100~------------------~---------------------------------------~

8°~a:~ii~!t~~~~c=~;;~~~~~1
60l.E
40
20
o~--~~--~--~
JAN FEB MAR
.. --------~----~--~~--
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
.. ----~--~~--
SEP OCT NOV
.. ~--~
DEC

[0 1987 ... 1988

The day of week pattern is different for each Beat. The number of cases in Beat 4 starts to increase on Thursday and
"eaks out on Saturday. The pattern in Beat 3 seems to be more constant and consistent because the 1987 pattern is very
simi/arto 1988. BEAT 4 • DAY OF WeEK BEAT 3 • CAY OF WEEK

100~.......~.......-r.......~..............~.......~.......~:.~ 160
140
80T-~==~~~_F--~~~==:T
120
6'0+--00+- 100
80
40
60
20 40
20
a 0
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT

I_ 1987 ... 1988 I OFS: 1888-1987

SUN MON TUE
rJi
~ '987
WEC THU
""988
FRI
I
.
SAT

3000~--.....................~............................~............................p _............................~--.....................p _...........................~.....................~

2S00r-.....................--+-............................~--.....................~....................--~...........................~
2000
1S00
1000
SOO
o
SUN MON TUE WED THU FAI SAT

La P2 • P1

ihe priority 1 calls are consistent during the week; however the Prlor~y 2 calls start to increase on Friday and peak out on
Sunday.
32
The case activ~y by time of day for Beats 3 and 4 occurred during the same time period. Beat 3 had an activ~y of 54%
between 1800 and 0200 hrs and Beat 4 experienced a 47%. During this time spand, the yearly pattern of Beat 3 was not
consistent. At 1800 hrs, the 1987 movement (which was the highest peak) decreased moderately while the 1988 pattern
_ irJ:reased and peaked out at 0000 hrs. The time pattern for Beat 4 was consistent, but the growth rate in 1988 decreased .
. , Mo're importantly, the time pattern for both beats are similar because the volume of the case activity are w~hin the time
c:lrameters.

re: 1987 1> 1988 TIME OF DAY: ~1987·19a8

100~--~----~--~----~----~~"~~~---'~~~----~~
90
B 80
E 70
60
A 50
T 40
30
20
3 10
O~---4----~----~---4----~----+---~----~
160~---4----4---~~--~----~~~----~--~~~~----+-----,
B 140
E 120
A 100
T 80
60
40
20
O~--~----~----+---~----·~--------------------~--~~----I
08 10 12 14 18 18 20 22 00 02 04 06

2000r-__________________~~=====-6-1-%--C-F-S-A-c-tl-vl-tY-~----~~----__~
1800+---------------------+_~
1600+-________________ ~

1400+-----------~
1200 +----
1000
800
600
400
200
o
08 10 12 14 1S 1.~.
20 22 00 02 04 06
• CFS 1986-1987

_Further examination revealed that the time characteristic in beats 3 and 4 Is similar to the time pattern of Calls for Services.
I '5 shown in the above graph. the primary volume of priority 1 and 2 calls OCCUlTed between 1600 and 0200 hrs (61%). •

33
BEAT 4 • CRIME

160r----r----~--~--~~--~--~~---~--~
l'he crime composition in Beat 4 is shown 140~--~~~~--~--~~--~--~~--4_--~
on the right. As ~ be seen, 459R, GTA, 120+--...r
'd Theft from Vehicle are the primary 100f---...r
..rgeted crimes. This pattern has existed
80'-'--+
in both years. 459V has been developing
60f---...r
a positive growth rate.
40+---+
20
o
459C 459R 459V 211 GTA SHOP TVEH BIKE

I_ 1987 • 1988 I
BEAT 3· CRIME

T.he crime make up in Beat 3 has been 1 80 .,---r---.....,.---r---...,---.,.---r------,r-----,

similar to Beat 4. However, 459C, 459V, 1 60 +-__--+-
and Bike thefts have a mild growth in 1 4 0 ~_-+
1988. 120~--+
100+---+
80+---+
60~--+
40
20
o
459C 4S~R 459V 211 GTA SHOP TVEH BIKE

I_ 1987 - 1988 1
PART I CRIME VS NARCOTIC ARRESTS 83 & B4
1986 1988
40u~-_----------__- - -__.....- - - - -__--.....-----------.....--------~400

35 350

300
25 250

200

150

10 100
50

o
1987 1988
I CJ'P1 . . 8 3 . 84 1
Further analysis indicated that a possible relationship exists between Part I crimes especially Residential burglary and
Narcotic arrests in Beats 3 and 4. As can be seen in the above graph, a negative trend of the narcotic arrests in Beats 3 ..
lind 4 started in 1986 and continued through 1988. In comparison, the Part I Crimes developed a positive trend in 1986 _
d continued to 1988. This growth maybe 2ttributed to the population increase and the demographic changes but
ddditional research indicated that a Ii.~rge majority of the Illegal chemical dependant Individuals that were arrested
had a case history of burglary.

34
CHiNO POLICE DEPARTMENT
INVESTIGATION • WEEKLY SUMMARY
CRIME AGAINST PROPERTY DATE: MAY 24,1989
_From May 23 to May 30, there was an Increase of 18% of the targeted crimes c~iwide as compared to the same time
• qriod last year. Beat 2 had the highest with 250%, but 57°/. was shoplifting. Beat 1 was second with 22%. Beat 3 and
had an ave~age decrease of 430/.. The most notable crime decrease was 459R. Beat 3 had a decrease of 100% and
Beat 4 experienced a 67-/. drop of 459R activity. In general, 459V had a strong growth citiwlde co"1'ared to last year.

During this CUrTent time period, the majority of crimes involved vehicles. This trend has been developing during the
past several months. We strongly recommend a Tactical Action Plan be implemented.
BEAT 1 BEAT 2
8?---~--~~~~--~-~_

7+---+--~~~~---+--+-

3 +--+--t- 6+---+---~~~~---+---+-

5+-~~-+--~--+-~~-+-
2 +--+-_p- 4+--~--~~~~--_+---+-

3+---+--+-
1 2 +--+--+---

1 +--+-
O+-_+---
459C 459R <459V GTA niFlV BIKE SHPLT T'I-FT <459C <459R <459V GTA THFTV BIKE SHPLT T'I-FT

, _ 1988 • 1989J I- 1988 - 1989]

BEAT 3 BEAT 4

5
4 +--+---+---+---+---+---+---+-~

3 +--~

2 +---+

o +----+
459C 459R <459V GTA lliFTV BIKE SHPLT T1-FT <459C <459R <45QV GTA 'Tl-FTV BIKE SHPLT T1-FT

, _ 1988 • 1989 '.1988 _ 19891

* See bacy~ide for detailed information

--------- - - - _. . ----------------~

INVESTIGATION BUREAU
WEEKL Y SUMMARY 5/23 - 5/30
81
459C 459R 459V GTA THFTV BIKE SHPlT THFT - . Ttl -/+ %
198~1 0 2 0 2 3 1 0 1 9
1989 1 2 3 2 3 0 0 0 11 22.2%
82
459C
198~1 0
459R
,0
459V
0 ,
GTA THFTV BIKE SHPLT THFT
3 0 2 0 6
1989 0 3 1 2 1 12 1 21 250.0%
83
459C 459R 459V GTA THFTV BIKE SHPLT THFT
198~l 52
1989
4
0
5 2 3 0 0 0 16
0 1 1 1 0 1 9 -43.8%
84
459C 459R 459V GTA THFTV BIKE SHPLT THFT
198~1 0 3 0 1 2 0 0 1 7
1989 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 4 -42.9%

TTL 459C 459R 459V GTA THFTV BIKE SHPLT THFT Glrtl
1988= 2 9 5 6 11 1 2 2 38
1989= 6 ..
• 7 4 6 3 12 3 45 18.4%
200'% -5-3% 40% -33% -45% 200% 500% 50%
, CURRENT TIME PERIOD: 45
459C 459R 459V GTA THFTV BIKE SHPLT THFT
13% 9% 16<1/<1 9% 13% 7% 27% 7%
SAN DIEGO COUNTY SHERIFF'S DEPARTMENT
POST O~FICE BOX 2991
SAN OIEOO. CALIFORNIA 92112
TELEPHONE (51!)) 495-5600

JOHN F. DUFFY, Sheriff

SHERIFF'S CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

CRIME SERIES BULLETIN
JUNE 6, 1989
"PIZZA PLACE RED BANDANNA" 211 SERIES
GENERAL
Since mid-March, the North County area has seen a series
of robberies and attempts at Pizza Hut and Domino's
restaurants. The events occur around closing time (2300 -
2400) usually with two armed suspects making entry, both
usually wearing a red bandanna mask on the lower part of the
face. On one occasion, one suspect wore a blue bandanna mask.
Weapons have been fired (in some cases through a locked glass
door to gain entry) though not at victims, and vehicle
information is sketchy. Three or more suspects appear to be
involved, all males, two black and one white. The black
suspects have been described as having a military appearance
and demeanor. Weapons involved have been described as .38
cal. revolver, .25 cal. automatic pistol, and twelve guage
sawed-off shotgun. Fingerprint evidence has been collected at
one crime scene (ES 89008385).
SUSPECT DESCRIPTIONS
SUSPECT *1 - Black male, 20-25, 5'6" to 6'0", 160-180
Ibs., normal to muscular build, black hair
with short thick Afro, brown eyes but
described in one case as having very
distinctive green eyes. Normally wears dark
jeans and dark jacket but has also worn a red
& black lumberjack or "Pendleton" shirt.
Usually does the talking. '
SUSPECT 12 - Black male, 20-25, 5'8" to 6'2", 170-190
lbs., thin to medium build, black hair, brown
eyes. Wears dark pants and jacket or red &
black/blue & black "Pendleton" shirt.
SUSPECT *3 - White male, 20-22, 6'0" to 6'2", 185-220
lbs., muscular/heavy build, long brown hair,
eyes unk., dark jeans and jacket or
"Pendleton" shirt.
POSSIBLE NAMES - An informant has said that he believes
the two black males may be "Anthony" and "Richard" who live in
the San Luis Rey,valley area of Oceanside and who are involved
with a group which calls itself "The Death Boys."

Page 1 of 2 pages
·- ..
CASES
Juris.
ES
Case *
89004456
Location
Pizza Hut
Time
~
Day
Tue
Date SusEects
37I1/89 I & 2
Vehic.
unk.
1856 E. Valley Py.
Escondido
SH 08928309 Pizza Hut 2359 Sat 3/25/89 1 & 2 '76
1463 W. Vista Way Brown
Vista Chev.
OC 89008984 Domino's Pizza 0012 Fri 4/14/89 1 & 3 Unk.
(Attempt) 545 S. vista Bella
Oceanside
OC 89009135 Domino's Pizza 2400 Sat 4/15/89 1 & 2 Unk.
545 S. Vista Bella
Oceanside
OC 89009911 Domino's Pizza 2350 Sat 4/22/89 1 Unk.
545 S. Vista Bella
Oceanside
ES 89008385 Pizza Hut 2325 Wed 5/17/89 1 Blue
1856 E. Valley Py. 2 Or
Escondido Chev.
SC 89-2642 Domino's Pizza 2320 Thu 5/25/89 1 & 3 Unk.
2241 El Camino Real
San Clemente
SH 08943734 Domino's Pizza' 2315 Tue 5/30/89 1 & 2 Unk.
1038 S. Mission
Fallbrook
SH 08943884 Domino's Pizza 2250 wed 5/31/89 1 & 2 Tan or
805 San Marcos Blvd. White
San Marcos Escort
SH 08943858 Domino's Pizza 2317 Wed 5/31/89 1 & 3 Unk.
603 Sycamore
Vista

Page 2 of 2 Pages
STANISLAUS COUNTY SHERIFF'S DEPARTMENT

CHILD ABDUCTION
ABDUCTED CHILD SUSPECT

, ERIKA CHRISTINA ORTA

D.O.B. 10-22-85
ANNIE ORTA
D.O.B. 4-27-67, 5'8" 130 LBS
HAIR: BROWN BROWN HAIR, GREEN EYES
EYES: BROWN HAIR IS CUT CLOSE AROUND
HEIGHT: 3'0" EARS. CRIMINAL mS'IORY
WEIGHT: 36 POUNDS IN S.F. AND EAST BAY
Cll#: A08258984
CHILD ERIKA ORTA IS WARD OF ALAMEDA COUNTY JUVENILE COURT, CASE
NO. 134860, JUV COURT HAS k;SUED W ARRANI' TO SEIZE CHILD. SUSPECT MOTHER
HAS NO RIGHI' OF CUSTODY. CHILD ABDUCTED 11-25-88 WEARING PINK PAJAMAS,
NO OTHER CLOTHING TAKEN. SUSPEcr ,MAY BE TRAVEUNG WITH CLAUDIA LIMA.
VEHICLE UNKNOWN.
WARRANT INFO: FELONY ARREST WARRANI' #177963, MODESTO MUNICIPAL
COURT, BAIL $10,000.00. CHARGE: 278 PENAL CODE - CHILD STEALING. IF CHILD IS
LOCATED, SEIZE AND HOLD PER 279a'?ENAL CODE AND NOTIFY BELOW AGENCIES.
TELETYPE MNEUMONICS 'MOS'

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION, PLEASE CALL:

• DET. DAN SCHLOSS RAY HARTER (DA INVEST.)
CAC UNIT (209) 525-6448 0R CHI1..D ABDUCTION UNIT
24 HR # (209) 525-7933 (209) 525-5550
CASE #S8-22820 DA #177963
PREPARED BV THE CRIME ANAL VSIS UNIT
DAILY BULLETIN CHINO POLICE DEPARTMENT
COURT DATE:
MONDAY CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT
Adult: THU 4/20/89
MAR. 20. 1988 Juv: TUE 4/18/89
OFFICE'B SAFEr!
OFCR SAFETY INFORMATION GTA FOR CHINO PD
3/19/89, 1350 HRS, INC. 8318 3/11189, 1858 HRS, INC. 172
. SUSP: BURKE, WIUIAM GARY, W. 7/3/45,
VEH: 17 FORO PJU, WHI, RED TAILGATE,
5.Q71H'VY BLD. MUSCULAR, CDU
WOODEN RACK, UCI1 F~
k0508530. SUBJ IS EX·VIETNAM VET
SUSP: BUFORD, WIWS LOUIS, WMA, 8-001160.
AND EX·FELON; HAS HISTORY OF 11550 BROIBlU, RESIDES 12660 THOMAS, CHINO.
AND 647F. FREQUENTS N£A~ GRANO I PARK N
VIEH: WHI LJM:)
POM:INA.
iIi.g.: SUBJ LEFT FRM 13368 NETZLEY, CH:
REF: OR. 88-03·0437
Tl-R:ATENEO TO Klll..ES111ANGEO WFE. USE CAUTlON
COLETTE BURKE, WHO IS STAYlNG AT
!ia31 S. MOUNTAIN t82 WIFRIEND. ALSO GTA FOR ONTARIO PD
nREATENED TO KlLL OFFICERS. 3/18/88. 1233 HRS, INC. 3679
W PN: POSS. ARMED W/.357 MAGNUM, AR 15 VEH: 77 FORO LTD, 2OR, GAY, DENT ON LT. SIDE.
W/ARtw«::>R PIERCING 1J.If.IO, AND A LlCn02SGD·EXP 311 0180.
o MM. SUS P: SUSP FIRST NN.£ DONNY OR DAWNEll. NFO.
REF: INC'S' 0255. 8292 occ: TAkEN FRM 301 E. CEDAR, ONT.
AEF: DR. 1Q48, INet 3620
STOp ANP HOLP
GTA FOR Otn'ARIO PD
245PC SlJSP FOR ONTARIO PD 3/19/SG, 2048 HRS. INC. 3838
3/19/S8. 0952 HRS, INC. 3605 VEH: ISIS HYUNDAI, REO, 4DR, UCl1SHZ85g,
SUSP: JAMES GLENN, NMA. 30'S, 5-061170, oce: TAKEN FRM T·BIAD, 1555 N. MOUNTAIN, ONT.
F£SlOES EITHER IN CM'. OR POt.CHA. REF: OR' 80·3·1;a0
51 VE H: t.«:lHTE CARl.O, DIRTY 'MIl N COLOR.
FISTS.
REF: OR. 1030, INC. 3592

459/498 PC FOR ONTARIO PD

PATROL ReQUeST
13180 8TH ST, OLD TOWNE EMPORIUM.
e
3/18/S8, 2202 HRS. INC. 39S2
SUSP: TRANSIENT "CHARLIE", ww..
23-24 VAS, BT. 3
DUE TO UTTERING 1NJ L~ IN THE AAE.k.
MED BLD/1751, SHLOR LNGTH HAIR-BlH OR
LT. CURlY SAO. LSWtaB CAP, LNG SLV BU< cxx:r..RS N EVENNG HOlR3.
SHRT, L.EVIS. LONG PNK SCM ON CHEST. .... ATTENTION SWING SHIFT ..-
REF: aO·3·1062/1067 3118/88. 1110 HRS. INC. 3652
- _ _ _ _.......~-__- - - - - -..... 13042 8TH ST., 8T. 3
STOp ANP EI CUETO AlT49TO LOCATION.
23110B/245 PC FOR ONTARIO PD 3110/88, 211f1 HAS, INC. 225
3/19/88. 1655 HRS, INC. 3783
VEH: as.ae MAZDA S2I, SMOKE GRV, LOWERED,
OK TMEO 'NtVNS. H & S INFQRMATION
SUSP: 4 MM'S. 18. YOUNGER, NFO.
occ: I·to/MOUNTAIN 11590 REG: WELLS RONALD RAY
AEF: DR. 'Q.3.19~ 3/14188, 1830 HRS, A. 21410
IUIJ: \'>':':M, 35 YRS, 5-081110, BAOIBRO, TT'So
CR:>SS • ~ W~AGGEJ=I ON RT FORENIM.
MISSING peRSONS CFOSS W.R.OWERS ~ LT FOREARM. ClOWNS
MISSING ADULT, 3/18,.1, N.:J ~ ON BACK TORSO.
1104 HRS. INC 3841 ADD .. : 12e07 TElEPHONE AV, CH. (W/SISTER)
S U BJ: EHIDA CEDENO, CUBAN FEMAlE. 58 Yl~ PALE: AGNT·NASH. EXP 2IIIQ2.
5-041134, BU<lBRO, OK COMPLEXiO~.
LSWA..T. SAO JUWSUIT, BGE SHOeS.
eR:lUTE TO N)I:) FRM Q-IK); t£VER
MRM:D.
A EF: RP·EOWIN SCHULZ., 81 ;-320.5;&7

MISSING JUV/RUNAWAY
3/18/S8. 1938 HRS, INC. 38S8
SUBJ: JESSe DUARTE, MM, 15 YAS. 5.081100,
BU<lBRO
oce: 13224 BENSON, BT. 2
AEF: ag·03·0638
---- ----

g;]JM:§ l}l cpnwl All PrJ

CRIME LCCaIIQ~ ICD DQW DaIE SUSeEC!1~EI:.tICLE eBCeEBI:r:
gESCBU!IIC~ SICLE~
41111
VEH
5640 RIVERSIDE' 1211
BT.2
1301 SUN 3/19 ....... PHONE
ANTENNA
"59 5140 REVERE ST'3 14J8 SUN 3/19 CAR STEREO
VEH BT.I
483 12831 YORBA' II 1510 SUN 3/19
VEH 8T.1
483 5'37 PHI1..AOELPHIA 1'23 SUN 3/19 NMA IN CUSiODY
NORDSTROM RACK
8T.1
459 65" EDISON AV 1627 SUN 3/19 2 MM·S. DRVR·DK. VCR
RES BT.2 HAIR/MUSTACHE.
SIVEH.QLDER DATSUN OR
TOYOTA FASTBACK. ORANGE
JII8 "721 RIVERSIDE DR 18S8 SUN 3/19 ADULT MALE IN CUSiODY
STATER BROS.
BT.3
488 12375 CEmRAI. AV 1923 SUN 3/19 CUSTOMER
VONS PAVILIONS WAL.lEr
BT.I
"59 "5\ PHILADe:LPHIA ~ 1103 SAT 3/111
VEH BT.I
459 12375 CENTRAL AV 141.5 SAT 3/18 CAN •
COM VONS PAVILIONS MACHINE
BT.I BROKEN IN
"87 'TI5 RIVERSIDE 1537 SAT 3/18 T·TOPS
VEl{ BT.4

e
(
211 12027 CENTRAL AV
YUM YUM DONtrrS
8T.1
2143 SAT ~!18 MM. UNK AGE. SHRT S20 !NONES
BL.K COMBED BACK
HAIR. LT COLOR SKlICKT.
OK. PANTS. SUSP TOLD CLERK
HE HAD A GUN .t KNIFE. NO WPN
SEEN.

®f1
NAME:
AKA:
SEX: MALJ:
008: 03109/84
DESCRIP: HISPANIC. 5-111175. BROIBRO. TT'S··STEVEt.r LT ARM. 'BAD TO THE
BONE" LT CHEST. OLI N9682090. SSt 551·e1·2~i
OFFENSE: PC 459. HS 11350
PAR/AGNT: ~
PAROLED: 11/12/U
REStO:
VEH:
HIST/ARR: PC 4871148/135/4230/HS 11350
SPC/COND: ANTl·NARconc TESTING: REG HS t 1590
•• - SUBJECT IS NOT A PAROLEE.AT.LARGE 10-

OfFICER NO!!S;

PERSONS APPEARING HEREIN AAE NOT NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED ~ CRIMINAl ACTIVlrf.

INFORMATJON IS MERE1.Y TO ASSIST OFFICERS H THEIR HVESTlGAT1VE FUNCTION N«J IS
INTeNDED FOR V.W ENFORCeJENT omcERS ONLY. UNlESS SPeCR:AU.Y NOTED. Tl£F£ &S
NO WARRANT OR WANTS At;.o PROBABLE CAUSE TO OETAIN td.JST BE ESTAIIJSHEO BY YOU.
CHINO PCUCE DEPARTMENT CRIME ANALYSIS UNIT

WEEKLY ACTIVE WARBANT LIS!

WEDNESDAY FEB. 8, 1989 WARRANTS ACnVE IN CHINO

AUENIION; PLEASE CONFJRM IF THE WARRANT IS ACTIVe

BEFORE AN ARREST IS MADE

NAME WARRANT ISSUED FILE TYPe . CHARGE

BUGS BUNNY rCH4134 10/24/88 039967 rEL as 11350A
001: 8/29/69 $7500.00
DES: WMA, 5-04/145, BLH/RAJ
ADDI: P.O. BOX 667
CHINO, CALIFORNIA 91708

JOE DONUT OCR8223 378588 I/W PC rTA

DOB: 8/23/44 PC 487.3
DES: HMA, 5-04/150, BIO/IIO PC 496
ADDI: P.O. BOX 667 $1500.00
CHINO, CALIFORNIA 91708

JOHN DOE NS8803569 2/1/89 01074873 I/W VIOL/PROB

e
DOB : 2/8/57 VC 23152A
L'ES : r, 5-05/150, BRO/ILU $2500.00
AODR: P.O. BOX 667
CHINO, CALIFORNIA 91708

YOSAMETTI SAM rCB4611 6/29/88 037173 rZL PC 187A

001: 8/4/64 PC 664
DES: BMA, 5-08/140, ILI/IIO $150,000.00
ADDR I' P .0. BOX 667
CHINO, CALIFORNIA 91708

MAE WEST SMITH MCBl1459 2/9/89 045346 I/W PC rTA

008: 4/15/70 SS 11550
DES: WMA, 5-11/150, ILN/ILU PC S02L
ADDft: P.O. BOX 667 $5000.00
CHINO, CALIFORNIA 91708

FERNANDO JOHNSON DOE HWV10046 1/5/89 029963 MISD as 11377(h)

001: 1/3/64 HS 11S50(A)
DES: WMA, 5-05/120, 8~a/GIH as rTA
ADD.. P.O. BOX 667 $1500.00
CHINO, CALIFORNIA 91708
CHINO POLICE DEPARTMENT
TARGETED CRIMES WEE~LY REPORT BY SHIrT
JUN 1989

;i** G I A V ! ••~*
6/01 6/08 6/15 TREND TTL
---.. --1-·. ------.......+/-
----1----......---..+/-
---- ---------------I---~---~-------
211:
•
1
1
1
I
• -
0 1
I •
I 0
• +/- IAvg
1---
1 1
y• -----
1 2
•1
GTA:
459R:
6 1
I
2
2
- 4 1 1
1
- 1
- 1 I 8
12
6
11
11 9
.8
459V:
5
1 :r 1
0 2 2
12
3
4~9C:
VTHrT: 1
2 1
0 \
1
0
2 1
1
1
I
1
2
- 1
1 I1 1
5 6 9
1
S
saPLT: 1I 0 - 1 1 1 1 \ 1 1 3 3
I
G/TTL: 16 I 7 9
1
1 6 1
\
I •
37 -29
**** DAY ****
6/01 6/08 6/15 TREND TTL
------1--------------- --------------- ---------------I---------~-----I---
I I' +/- • +/- • _~~: I~~~ • _!___ I_!_
211: 01 0 0 12 1 410
GTA: 1\ 3 2 1 -2 i 5 4 9\ S
459R: 4 1 s 1 2 - 3 1 15 9 lS 1 11
459V: 1\ 0 -1 0 12 3 3\ 1
459C: 01 1 1 0 -1 12 1 411
TarT: 21 1 -1 0 -1 14 4 913
saPLT: 11 3 2 3 16 8 717
~=-~ ___ 'l __....___.--___..,.____- _______ 1 1_
" D/TTL: 9 I 13 4 6 - 7 I -. 51 I 28

**** S W 1 N G ****
6/01 6/08 6/15 TREND TTL
------ ..--- ---~-----------
-----------+/- -------_....-- ........ Avg
---------------
I
• • +/-
• +/- • -----
y
•1
---
211:
GTA:
1
5
0
2
-3
-
1 0
4 2
3 2
8
1
11
9 11
459ft:
459V: 5
3 6
2
3
- 32
4 -2 4 2
16 4 16
10
13
6 9 11
459C: 0 2 2 7 4 7 4

-- 12
VTHrT: 1 7 6 13 9
SHPLT:
3
5 4 - 1 3 8 8
13
8
11
1
S/TTL:
............
22 17 -
••••••••••••••• .....
22
S
,
5
......... ................. -
•••
68 61
TOTAL: 47 37
-10 34 - 3 • •••••••••••••• ! 156 118
[WEEKLY SUMMARY ..JUNE 1989)
SHIFT; GBAYE
14~-----r----~~----~-----T------r-----~----~14
• WK3
12 12
~ WK2
10 10 m WK 1
B B "Y'
6 6
• 4
2 2
o 0
211 GTA 4S9A 45StV 45;C V/THFT SHPL.FT
Targeted Crime.

SHIEl; DAY
16~----~----~------~--F--~----~----~----~16

14 14 • WK3
[21 WK2
12~----~----~----~~----+------r----~----~12
·E!JWK1
10 10 "Y'
B B
6 6
4~~~~~~W-~-b~~---+
2 +---+-V
oL----Wtt~~LU~~~~l£2Z~1I~it~U o
211 aTA 4StR 45ft V 45tO V/THFT SHPLIFT
Targeted Crime.

SHIFT. SWINQ
18~----~----~----~~----~----~----~----~1B
16 16 II WK3
14 14 t2l WK2
12 12 £J WK 1
"Y'
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 ~

2 2
o 0
211 OTA 45tR 4StV 458C vrrHFT SHPLln
Targeted Crime.
INDEX

Ie
INDEX

A C
Calculator" 257, 263, 266, 272,
Abscissa, 188. 197 275, 277
Administrative crime analysis, Call screening, 116-117
1 2 -1 3 Calls for service, 114
Admissions of suspects, 54·55 alternative police responses to,
Arithmetic Mean, 204 116, 118
Arrest reports, 38, 51, 93 calculating response time to,
Arrest summaries, 76, 82 179-181
Automated information systems, 31, categories ot, 117
34, 139-159 graphing of, 191
and administrative services, response time to, 114-115,213
144-145 Calls for service records, contents of 52
and data analysis, 67-72, 139 Call prioritization, 9, 116-117 '
and data collati~>n, 60, 139 Career criminals, 8, 131, See a/so Habitual
and data retrieval, 139 criminals, Repeat offenders,
and decision-making, 31 Known offendars
and investigations, 145-146 Case clearance processes, 13, 18, 47,
and patrol operations, 142-144 55, 74, 137
and property sections, 148-149 Case correlation, 47, 74
and purchase considerations, 139 Case matching, 47, 74
and records divisions, 140-142 Case screening, 9, 133-134
and traffic bureaus, 146-148 Cause and effect, 255, 263
fears associated with, 163-164 CCAP,10
formats of requests for proposals Central tendency, 204

e to acquire, 149-159
needs assessments and, 139, 163
peripherals, 34-35. 39
CMange, 24, 168·170
resistance to, 23, 124, 161-171
Impact of, 47
statistical computations facilitated ·Check-Box· reports, 39, 49
by, 176
Citizen complaints, 83
Automated methods of crime analysis, 60-61 Civilian personnel, 31, 116-117, 124,
Averages, 204 164-166, See a/so Non-sworn
computation of, 204-208
personnel
moving, 216-220
Commission on Peace Officers Standards
seasonal, 213-216, 270-273 and Training (POST), 30
Commitment of executives, 23 124
B Committees, 24-26 '
Beat analyses, 6 Intradepartmental. 24
Bar Graphs, 188, 190 interdepartmental. 25
Bell-shaped curve, 213 Communication, 28, 33
example of, 212 Importance of, 28
Best fit, line of, 263, 268 Communications/dispatch, 25
Bimodal distributions, 206 Comparing data. 187, 220-224, 244, 245
Birmingham, Alabama, Police Department Computer(s). See Automated
117 ' Information systems
Bivariate graphs, 188, 195, 197-200 Conversion of data
257, 266 ' decimals to time. 227
Booking reports, 52 locations to numbers, 248-252
Brearcliffe, Daie, 226 time to decimals, 227
Briefing s'~ssions, 48, 165. See also Roll call Correlation analysis. 63, 255-273
Budgeting, 14, 19, 28, 50
Bulletins, types of, 76-77
Correlation coefficient, 255-256, 268 volunteer employment in, 96
cause and effect and, 255, 263 vs. records bureau, 14
computation of, 257 Crime analysts, 28
interpretation of, 263 desired skills of, 28, 32
CottO'l, Fred, 139 role in MCI process, 136-137
Crime analysis role in MPO process, 123
and citizen complaIns, 83 supervision of, 29
and crime prevention, 18, 73, 82-83 sworn vs. non-sworn, 31-32
and department planning, 19, 74 training of, 29
and deployment planning, 19 Crime calendars, 67
and investigations, 17 example of, 71
and resource allocation, 19 Crime indexes, calculation of, 223-224
and the budgeting process, 19 Crime, misclassification of, 50
and the case clearance process, 18 Crime pattern bulletins, 76, 79
applications of, 14-20 Crime patterns
as a police function, 7 data needed to determine, 185-186
automated methods of, 60-61, 67-72 definition of, 15
crimes applicable to, 61-62 identification of, 13-15, 64
data needed for, 57 methods of determining, 63,
defined, 12 65- 72
functions of, 13-14 types of, 63-65
history of, 6-10 Crime prevention, 13, 18, 25, 73, 74, 222
in England, 6 Crime prevention bulletins, 77, 82-83
manual methods of, 60, 65-67 Crime rate, calculation of, 221-222
overcoming resistance to, 161-171 Crime reports, 10, 38, 51
processes, 37-94 Crime series
statistics and, 174 data needed to determine, 185-186
to support police operations, 7 definition of, 15
types of, 12-13 identification of, 13-15, 64
Crime analysis products methods of determining, 63,
data needed to produce, 77 65-72
developmental considerations, 75, 77 Crime series bulletins, 76, 79
distribution techniques, 85-88, 93 Crime summary bulletins, 76, 80-81
"faxing" of, 88 Crime/suspect correlation process, 73
formats of, 77, 84-85 use of, 74
soliciting suggestions for, 166 Crime trends, 8, 13, 245
technical considerations in Criminal history information, 52
developing, 84-85 cautions in using, 52
types of, 76-84 Criminal Justice Newsletter, 35
use of graphs in, 85
video products, 87-88 D
Crime analysis unit, 24
Daily bulletins, 76, 78-79
centralized vs. decentralized, 30
Dallas, Texas, Police Department, 30-31, 187
development of, 28-35
Data
equipment and supplies, 33
combining catetories of, 242
evaluation of, 93-94
comparisons of, 187, 220-224
feedback requirements, 88-93
distributions, 183
hours of operation, 32
determining relationships between,
objective of, 28
195, 197
open door policy, 33
graphing of, 179, 188-202
organizational placement of, 28
grouped, 181-184, 190
phYSical placement of, 28
mixed, 240
responsibilities ()f, 7
object, 220-221
staffing of, 30
organizing, 179·184 method, 233-235
presentation of, 200, 202 Equipment. 33
quality of, 48 Estimate, range of, 268-270
quantity of, 240 Evaluation
range, 183 defined, 93
reference, 220·221 of crime analysis units, 93-94
reporting contradictory results in, of management of criminal
222 investigations program, 136
retrieval of, 62, 139 of volunteers, 107
skewed, 206 Evidence reports, contents of, 53
smoothing, 194·195 Exact time patterns, 226-230
specificity of, 62 around midnight, 228-230
uniqueness of, 187 mixed data and, 240
Data analysis, 63·74 not around midnight. 226-228
automated systems and, 139 Executive task ferce, 23
defined, 63 composition oil 23
methods of, 65·72 purpose of, 23
types of, 63 Exponential moving average, 216, 219-220
Data collation, 57·63 smoothing constant and, 219
automated systems and, 139
defined, 37 F
manual vs. automated
Federal Bureau of Investigation, 55
methods of, 60
Feedback, 88-93, 135
planning considerations, 62·63
and management of criminal
Data collection, 37-57
Investigations, 135-136
automated systems and, 139
defined, 88
defined, 37
formal methods of, 88-92
source documents for, 37
forms for, 88-91
Data dissemination, 74-77
defined, 74 Informal methods of, 92-93
formats for, 77 need for, 88
goals of, 75 questionnaires and, 92
Decimals, converting to time, 227 survey research and, 92
Field interview files, 60
Department of motor vehicles, 55
Dependent variables, 184, 188 Field Interview reports, 38, 51
Deployment planning, 14, 19 Field interview summaries, 76 82
File development process, 57-SO
Descriptive measures, 204
Descriptive statistics, 125 Files
Detroit Police Department, 114 methods to create, 60-61
planning considerations, 62
Differential Police Response Field
Test, 116 searching of, 63, 73.
Directed patiOl planning, 122 types of, 58-60
Directed patrol plans, 8, 48, 62, Forecasting crime, 13, 15-17, 213, 265,
73, 74, 83, 123 268, 269. See also Predictions and
Discrete variables, 190 relations
Dispatchers, 117, 118 cautions in, 73, 168
District attorney, 24, 25 goal of, 73
Doyle, Arthur Conan, 6 Frequency polygon, 191, 193·194
smoothed, 194, 195
"Dropping" high and low values 208
"Dropping" weeks, 217, 218 ' Frequency tables, 179-184, 190

E G
Equal opportunity time analysis Gang bulletins, 83
Geographic analyses, 244, 248·252
Geographic concentration Institute of Police Technology
patterns, 64,65 and Management, 30
Grand mean, computation of, 270 Integrated Criminal Apprehension
Grant funding, 10 concept, 8
Graphical analysis, 245-248 history, 7-8
Graphs, 85, 188-202 programs, 7, 8, 30
construction of, 188, 197 Intercept, slope and, 263, 265, 266
types of, 188-2Q2 International Association of Chiefs of
Grid systems, 249 Police, 30
Grouped data, 181-184, 190 Interpol, 55
Intervals, 181-184, 191, 194-195
H Interview information
as method of feedback, 92
Habit patterns, 6, 8
cautions in use of, 54-55
Habitual offenders, 8, 131. See a/so Career
of victims and offenders, 54
criminals, Known offenders,
Inverse relationships, 256
Repeat offenders
Investigation reports, contents of, 52
Histograms, 188, 191, 213
Investigations, 9, 131
Holmes, Sherlock, 6
and automated information
"Hot spots", 216
systems, 146
identification of, 200
monitoring of, 135-136
Investigative leads, 13, 17-18,47, 136
I
Independent variables, 184, 188, 191 K
Indexes, 223-224
Kansas City Response Time Analysis
Inferential statistics, 176
Information
Study, 9, 114
Known offenders. See Career
accuracy of, 49-50
criminals, Habitual offenders,
automated data systems, 56
Repeat offenders
California State Department of
Known offender bulletins, 76, 79-30
Finance, 56
Known offender files, 58, 60, 61, 74
control over the use of, 94
dissemination, 85-88, 167
external sources of, 55-57 L
formats for presentation of, 77 Law Enforcement Assistance
from California Bureau of AdminIstration, 8, 10, 12
Criminal Statistics, 56 Law Enforcement News, 35
from California Department Livermore, California, Police
of Justice, 56 Department, 226
from Department of Motor "Least squares fit", 263
Vehicles, 55 Linear Predictions, 263·270
from District attorney's office, 25 Line of best fit, 263, 268
from FBI, 55 Location patterns, analyses of, 244-253
from other police agencies, 26
from parole/probation, 25 M
from prisons, 26
from schools, 26
Mail In reports, 9
Management of criminal
internal sources of. 51-55
investigations, 9, 131-137
National Institute of Justice, 56
and case screening, 133
necessity to exchange, 23
and Continuing Investigations
other federal agencies, 56
Management Procedures, 134
reliability of, 48-49
and enhancement of police/
timeliness of, 48-49, 135
prosecutor relationships, 135
validity of, 50
history of, 131-132 methods of determining, 65·72
monitoring of the investigations Moving averages, 216·220
system and, 135-136
preliminary Investigation process N
and, 131
program elements of, 131 Narcotic bulletins, 83
purpose of, 131 Narcotic/sex registration forms, 51
resistance to, 134 Narrative reports, 39
National Crime Information Center (NCIC)
role of crime analyst in, 136-137 55 I

Management of patrol operations, 9, 114-

National Institute of Justice, 35, 56
129
and managing the patrol force, 118 bulletins, 35
and police resources, 1,16 Negative correlations, 256
Negative relationships, 256
designing procedures for, 116
Nixon, Richard, 8
examples of formal studies of, 116
history of, 114-1'16 Non-sworn personnel, 31 116·117. 124.
164-166. See a/so Civilian personnel
identifying need for, 119
Managing Patrol Operations Program
Test Design, 116 o
Manpow~r distribution studies, 120-122 Object data, 220-221
resistance to, 124 Offense reports. See Crime Reports
role of crime analyst in, 123-124 Office of Criminal Justice Planning
"selling" of, 125 (OCJP), 10, 22, 30
training of officers in, 124 Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act 8
Open door policy, 33 '
Manual methods of crime analysis, 60, Optical scanning devices, 39
65- 6 7 Ordinate, 188, 197
Maps
example of, 66 p
pin, 6, 65, 244-245, 248
spot, 6, 65 Parole, 25, 55
Mapping techniques, 63, 244-245, 248-253 Parolee bulletins, 76, 80
Master case files l 58 Patrol force, best use of, 9
Master name files, 58 Patterns of crime, analyzing, 226·242
Matrices Patterns of location, analyzing, 244·253
design and use of, 60, 67 Pin maps, 6, 65, 197, 244, 245, 248
disadvantages of, 60, 62 examples of, 66, 199
examples of, 68-71 Planning divisions, 7, 28
Polic~J Administration, 7
Mean, 204, 206, 208
computation of, 204 Police and prosecutor relations, 9 135
Mean average deviation, 208-209 Police Executive Research Forum •115
Mean difference, 209 Police response '
Mean, grand, 270, 271 alternative approaches to, 117·118
Measures of central tendency, 204 call screening and. 117
Measu~es of variability (dispersion),
dispatchers role in, 117
204, 208 use of non·sworn personnel
Median, 204, 207-208 and, 117
computation of, 204·205 Positive correlations. 256
Midpoint time analysis method, 231-233 Positive relationships. 256
Mode, 206, 208 Predictions and relations, 255-273
computation of, 206 Preliminary investigations, 47. 133
MO files, 58, 61 Preliminary investigations process, 131-
Modus operandi (MO), 6, 8 133
MO pattern and detection analysis, 63 Prisons, 26
Probation, 25, 55
Productivity measurement, 162-163 S
Products. See Crime analysis products Sampling, 194
Profile analysis, 13, 17, 72-73 Scantron reports, 39
Program development issues, 22-26 Scatter diagrams, 257, 263
Program planning, 22, 62-63 Schools, 26
Program timing, 22 SEARCH Group, Inc., 139
Project director, 23 Seasonal adjustment factor, 214,
Project manager, 23 216, 271-273
Property files, 58 Seasonal averaging, 213·216, 270-273
Property reports Sex/narcotic registration forms 51
use of, 54 Simple moving average, 216-217
Prosecutor, 24, 135 Skewed data, 206
Public Administration Service, 30 Slope and intercept, 263, 265, 266
Smoothed frequency polygon, 191,
Q 194·195
Questionnaires, 92 Smoothing constant, 219
Smoothing data, 194·195
R Software, statistical, 263, 266, 272,
275·277
Radios, use of police, 114 Solvability factors, 9, 133·134
Random patrol, 9, 123
Source documents
Range of distribution, 183, 208-209 data elements of, 38
Range of estimate, 268-270 functions of, 37
Rates, calculation of, 221-222 impact of changes in, 47-48
Recognition of volunteers, 108 modifications to, 37
Records, 25 Special offense bulletins, 77, 83-84
Records keeping, 8, 136-137 Spot maps, 6, 65
Reference data, 220-221 examples of, 66
Reference materials, 35 Staffing of crime analysis' units, 30
Regression line, 263 Standard deviation, 208
Relations and predictions 255-273 calculation of, 210-213
Relationships between v~riables, 255-273 use of, 211, 213
Repeat offenders 8,131. See also Career Statements of suspects, victims and
criminals, Habitual offenders witnesses, 54-55
Known offenders '
Statistical analysis, 63, 73, 126
Reports Statistical crime summaries
alternative police responses monthly, 81
to taking, 118 weekly, 80
formats, 38-39 Statistical geographic analysis 248-253
impact of changes in, 47·48 Statistical software, 263, 266' 272 275 277
types of, 38, 51-55 Statistics ' , ,
Request for proposals, 149-159 and the crime analysis
Request logs, 93 process, 174
Research divisions, 7, 28 history of, 175
Resistance to crime analysis sampling and, 194
programs, 161-171 types of, 175-176
Resource allocation planning, 14, 19
"Straight line" correlations, 257, 263
Resources, use of, 115, 118
Strategic crime analysis, 12-13
Response time Supervision, 29, 108
calculating, 179-181
Survey research methods
to calls by police 114-115, 213 use in feedback process, 92
Roll call, 48, 165
Suspect files, 58
"r", values of, 257, 263, 268
Suspects, identification of, 73 intervieWing prospective, 101
Suspect vehicle files, 58, 74 orientation training of, 108
Sworn personnel, 31 recognition of, 108
recruiting of, 96
T supervision of, 1PfJ
Tactical action plans, 8, 48,
62, 73, 74, 83
Tactical crime analysis, 12·13 W
Target profile analysis, 13, 17, 72·73 Wanted persons bulletins, 76, 81·82
Task forces Warrant lists, 76, 82
executive, 23 Weighted moving average, 216, 217·219
Time, converting to decimals, 227 Weighted time analysis method, 237·240
Time intervals, 216, 219, 226, 233 Wickersham Commission, 114
Time patterns, analyses of, 226·242 Wilmington, Delaware Management of
Time span crimes, analyses of, 231·240 Demand Program, 116
equal opportunity method, 233·235 Wilson, O. W., 7
midpoint analysis, 231·233 Police Administration, 7
mixed data and, 240 Workload analysis studies, 122, 248
weighted method, 237·240
Traffic, 25, 146-148
Traffic citations, 52
x
Training guides, 48 "x" variables, 184, 188, 255-256,
Training of analysts, 29·30 257, 263
using x to predict y, 263
sources of, 30
Training of officers, 124
Training of volunteers, 108 y
Training, other Y-axis Intercept, 263
briefing (roll call), 48 "y" variables 184, 188, 255-256,
"Trash can survey", 92 257, 263
prediction of y based on x, 263
U
Unique offense bulletins, 83
User committees, 24·26
composition of, 24·26
functions of, 24·25

v
Variables
dependent, 184
determining relationships between,
195, 197, 255-256, 257, 263
independent, 184
Variance, 210, 211
Variation around the line, 270
Vehicle files, 58, 61
Victim profile analysis, 13, 17, 72·73
Video presentations, 87-88
Vollmer, August, 6·7
Volunteers, 96-111
background Investigations of, 107-108
duties of, 96
evaluation of, 107