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Is The Ground Shifting?

Aug 01, 2001

With the Federal election now only months away, speculation about the likely result is taking on a distinctly different tone from that which has prevailed for much of the year.

In the words of Laurie Oakes in the latest edition of The Bulletin, “you can feel the ground moving. Things are looking better for John Howard, shakier for Kim Beazley.”

The year began with opinion polls showing the coalition struggling federally and in all States. Since 1998, the ALP has won government in Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia. It has been overwhelmingly re-elected in New South Wales and Queensland. [Read more...]

Filed Under: 2001 Federal Election, A.L.P., GST, Howard, Opinion Tagged With: , , , ,

Howard Says He Has Listened To The Voters But Maintains Government Direction Is Sound

Mar 18, 2001

The Prime Minister, John Howard, has held a press conference in Canberra this afternoon in which he has accepted responsibility for the Ryan by-election.

HowardHoward says he has heard what the voters have to say, but he maintained that the result was more akin to the by-elections in Adelaide and Port Adelaide in 1988, and Oxley in 1989. In these elections, the Hawke government suffered large swings, up to 14%, losing the previously safe Adelaide electorate.

Howard argued that the swing of 10% against his government in Ryan was less than the swings against the ALP in its by-elections and denied that the result meant he could not win this year’s general election.

The Prime Minister argued that he would need to explain his government’s policies better and said that the nation could not pull back from its involvement with the rest of the world. [Read more...]

Filed Under: By-Elections, Howard, Liberal Party Tagged With: , , , , ,

A Night Of See-Saw Counting In Ryan By-Election

Mar 17, 2001

Counting in the Ryan by-election showed a strong swing to the ALP from the outset, but a close result was also evident from the earliest figures.

At one stage, the Australian Electoral Commission website reported that counting in all 32 booths had been completed and gave the Liberal candidate, Bob Tucker, a narrow lead of 50.13%. Around an hour later, the site was updated with fresh figures showing the Labor candidate, Leonie Short, with a lead of 50.64%.

This is how the night unfolded: [Read more...]

Filed Under: A.L.P., By-Elections, Howard, Liberal Party Tagged With: , ,

The (Former?) Liberal Party Stronghold of Ryan

Mar 17, 2001

The Queensland electorate of Ryan was created at the redistribution of 1948.

The first election for Ryan was held in 1949 and resulted in the election of Nigel Drury of the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until the 1975 election when John Moore, also from the Liberal Party, was returned.

Ryan

The seat has never been held by the Australian Labor Party.

The ALP has never polled more than 42.37% of the primary vote in Ryan, a performance it achieved in the large swing to Labor in the 1969 Federal election.

The Liberal Party has consistently polled between 50% and 60% of the primary vote, except on those occasions when there was a three-cornered contest with the National Party, or the Democratic Labor Party. [Read more...]

Filed Under: A.L.P., By-Elections, Howard, Liberal Party Tagged With: , , , ,

By-Election: Day Of Reckoning In Ryan

Mar 17, 2001

A seminal moment in the life of the Howard government will come today with voting in the by-election for Ryan in Brisbane’s western suburbs.

TelegraphOpinion polls continue to predict a large swing against the Liberal Party, enough to deliver the seat to the ALP for the first time in its history.

Most polls put the swing around the 13% mark. The government needs to lose only 9.5% to be defeated.

The by-election is being compared to those in Bass in 1975 and Canberra in 1995. In each case, safe Labor electorates recorded large swings to the Liberals and heralded the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments.

In a week which has seen the value of the Australian dollar fall below 50 U.S. cents and unemployment increase to 6.9%, the government has also been battling the growing belief that Australia is headed for an economic recession. Last week, the December quarter economic growth figures showed a decline of 0.6%. [Read more...]

Filed Under: By-Elections, Howard, Liberal Party Tagged With: , , ,
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