Probability Theory As Extended Logic

Edwin T. Jaynes was one of the first people to realize that probability theory, as originated by Laplace, is a generalization of Aristotelian logic that reduces to deductive logic in the special case that our hypotheses are either true or false. This web site has been established to help promote this interpretation of probability theory by distributing articles, books and related material. As Ed Jaynes originated this interpretation of probability theory we have a large selection of his articles, as well as articles by a number of other people who use probability theory in this way:

• E. T. Jaynes: Jaynes' book on probability theory is now in its second printing. The publisher, Cambridge, requested the version of the book that was online be removed to avoid copyright problems. Jaynes' book is available from Amazon here in the US and from Amazon in the UK. We have a selection of Dr. Jaynes' articles, and the first three chapters from Jaynes' book on probability theory are now online as a pdf file or as a postscript file. A typed publication quality version of his unpublished book titled "Probability Theory, With Applications in Science and Engineering" that was being prepared for publication in the mid 1970's is available. Additionally, a copy of his music book, a selection of his unpublished, works, a selection of his book reviews, and a tribute to him are still available online.

• Phil Gregory: We have two article by Phil Gregory and Tom Loredo and several others by Phil. These article are on the application of probability theory to the problem of estimating the frequency of oscillation of a non-sinusoidal signal in data that consists of counts. You can find out a bit more about Phil by visiting his home page at the University of British Columbia and you can buy a copy of Phil's book from Amazon.

• Tom Loredo: We have Tom Loredo's excellent tutorial on probability theory. It was presented at the Dartmouth meeting of the International Society for the study of Maximum Entropy and Bayesian methods. Other works by Tom Loredo.

• David MacKay: We have three papers by David MacKay. These papers cover a broad range of topics and we direct you to the appropriate directory for more on them. Other works by David MacKay.

• D. S. Sivia: We have six papers by Dr. Devinder Sivia on the application of Bayesian probability theory to spectral analysis, analyzing quasielastic neutron scattering data, and extracting Structure-Factor amplitudes from powder diffraction data. For more about D. S. Sivia visit his home page.

• Stephen Gull: We have two papers by Steve Gull. The first is a general survey of Bayesian methods with an application to determining the expansion order in a polynomial expansion. The second is on straight-line fitting and is the article that spurred Ed Jaynes' attempt on the same problem.

• Rainer Fischer runs the Bayesian data analysis group at the Max-Plank-Institut and over the last few years, he and Volker Dose, has put together what is, in my opinion, one of the finest Bayesian groups on earth.

• G. Larry Bretthorst: I have posted my book, "Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and Parameter Estimation." The previous hyperlink will download a pdf version of my book. A gzip compressed postscript version of my book is also available. A selection of my articles is also available, these include two tutorials on probability theory.

A new version of the Bayesian Analysis Software with a Java based GUI is available. See the Bayesian Analysis Software home page for an overview of the software, installation procedures. For a description of the applications contained in the software see this pakage list. The user manual for the Bayesian Analysis Software, can be downloaded here. This version of the manual was placed online May 28, 2014.

This site is being maintained by:
Larry Bretthorst,
Dept. Of Radiology,
Washington University,
Campus Box 8227,
St. Louis MO 63130,

Phone: 314 362-9994.

All questions concerning this site should be directed to him.